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In a desperate effort to keep pace with Vladimir Putin as the Russian Federation quickly establishes facts on the ground in Crimea, the Obama administration announced Ukraine interim Prime Minister will be received at the White House Wednesday.

Racing to legitimize Mr. Arseniy Yatsenyuk may be the only way the United States can pressure Russia into accepting the West's man in Ukraine.

Why Europe has withheld gushing support for the fledgling usurpers is no mystery. The E.U. already has a corrupt economic catastrophe with strong Neo-Nazi, xenophobic and racist elements within its midst. The E.U. has had Greece and its Golden Dawn party to contend with, far longer than its patience can withstand.

Since Ukraine is conceivably nothing more than a money pit, the Europeans are wise to carefully weigh its option and actions before risking economic ties with Russia. Failing to see anything significant Ukraine can bring to the European Union, the usual pleas for freedom and dignity ring rather hollow right now.

Looking more like rabid aggressors than peacefully protesting underdogs, by all accounts, when the going got tough, the tough guys started kicking asses. In the street battle of the "borscht boyz," the latest so-called fighters for freedom won it hands down. No reason for pity here.

Smartly keeping its powder dry, the Europeans are content to let the United States take the lead and all the risk. Angela Merkel and company will simply hide in the thicket of confusion, until its clear Ukraine is worth the time, effort and expense. Embracing a bunch of corrupt, broke and uncouth losers with little if any value, can bring nothing but aggravation and a guarantee of economic instability.

The United States on the other hand, has already cast its lot with the upstart Ukrainians. Scrambling airpower to the region, the Unites States backed that up with a warship in a show of faux force.

The Pentagon said six U.S. F-15 fighter jets are now in Lithuania to augment air patrols over the Baltics. As the stand-off over Russia's incursion into Ukraine continues,  the U.S. warship USS Truxtun is participating in exercises with Romania and Bulgaria and is expected to remain in the Black Sea for several days.

Reportedly, these assets have just been mobilized to the Black Sea to participate in long-planned exercises, but the message to Vladimir Putin is blatant; The United States is near if needed. Still, without the threat of military engagement behind all the saber rattling, the price to feign force can be costly.

Considering the White House is having difficulties explaining Ukraine's strategic value to the United States, its beginning to looks as though Barack Obama has been lured into another international conflict with nothing to gain and everything to lose.

Bottom line: The only thing worse than getting involved in another man's fight, is doing so blindly. And taking sides too early is always a bad idea.

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Comment Preferences

  •  "Fledgling usurpers"? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FishOutofWater, Lawrence, LordMike

    Nice tone.  Makes the previous government sound completely legitimate.  And the EU is tepid about responding because they're worried about getting their supply of Russian gas cut off.

    "Democrat" is a noun. "Democratic" is an adjective. "Republican" is an idiot.

    by TheOrchid on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 05:58:04 AM PDT

    •  "Kleptocracy" describes the last government. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dougymi, LordMike

      Ukraine is a money pit because the people have been robbed blind by their government.

      That said, the U.S. is not going to fight Russia over Ukraine. That would be insanity. Ukraine isn't worth WWIII. We couldn't win a conventional war and there's no winning an unconventional war.

      If Putin wants to take the Crimean peninsula back into Russia no one can stop him.

      “Industry does everything they can and gets away with it almost all the time, whether it’s the coal industry, not the subject of this hearing, or water or whatever. They will cut corners, and they will get away with it. " Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D, WVa

      by FishOutofWater on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:22:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ukraine hasn't had a government (0+ / 0-)

        that wasn't corrupt in the last 200 years.  The country may hold elections, which result in "legitimate" governments, but all of them are corrupt and rob the people's treasury while privatizing their resources for the new officials' cronies.

        "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

        by SueDe on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 03:50:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  umm, the previous government (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FarEasterner, Sandino, protectspice

      was certainly corrupt and more than a little authoritarian, but it was legitimate.  

      Dogs from the street can have all the desirable qualities that one could want from pet dogs. Most adopted stray dogs are usually humble and exceptionally faithful to their owners as if they are grateful for this kindness. -- H.M. Bhumibol Adulyadej

      by corvo on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:56:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama's afraid (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    corvo, Azazello, david graeber

    the Rethugs are going to call him "timid", so he lets them hustle him into ill-considered belligerence.

    I don't recall the Russians sending warships and planes when we invaded Grenada. Panama. Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam ...

    GOP: Bankers, billionaires, suckers, and dupes.

    by gzodik on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:06:09 AM PDT

  •  It may surprise you.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lawrence, LordMike

    but the new government in the Ukraine has only a tiny contingent of "neo-nazis". Congratulations, though, on falling for Russian propaganda.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:12:59 AM PDT

  •  I agree. I think judgment should be reserved (5+ / 0-)

    about who is right and wrong within Ukraine, while vigorously (although admittedly hypocritically) condemning Russia's military intervention, breaking their promise to respect Ukrainian sovereignty.

    Bottom line here is whether Crimea has the right to secede from Ukraine and rejoin Russia. It is up to Ukraine to resolve that issue, just as we did.  

    If it turns out that Crimea invited Russian intervention that is an unfortunate characteristic of civil war, including our own, but it is none of our business, other than the fact that Russia reneged on their agreement to do it.  And since that agreement had no force of law, yammering about it is about all we can do.  We're handling the yammering quite well.

    I also think, however, that Obama was correct to scramble military assets at the request of the former SSRs who are NATO members feeling threatened by this incursion.  Otherwise, NATO is meaningless.  

    As long as NATO exists there is unfortunately the danger of a ground war with Russia.  If such were to occur we should be in a defensive position, i.e., preventing Russian incursion, not attacking an occupying Russian force.  

    The conventional wisdom is that war with Russia means nuclear holocaust.  I don't think that is necessarily so.  I think it is possible for the countries to kill each other the old fashioned way, while mutually eschewing suicide, although the threat would be very real and horrifying.  Such a war would undoubtedly result in a stalemate with no winner and a followup cold war that dwarfs the old one.  If Putin allows this scenario to unfold he is more insane that body language can measure.

    With respect to those NATO allies this is not about how important Ukraine is to our national interests.  Personally, I think not much, and I will be extremely pissed if I learn the United States covertly instigated the coup that started this mess.

    We should have learned by now that the first smoke of battle often blurs the line between enemies and foes.

    Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

    by ZedMont on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:22:06 AM PDT

    •  er, between friend and foe. (0+ / 0-)

      Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

      by ZedMont on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:30:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Great comment! nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ZedMont
    •  While it might be possible for a Russia-US war in (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FarEasterner, corvo, Catte Nappe, LordMike

      which nukes are not used, it's highly unlikely.
        Try getting some people together and playing a realistic war scenario in which both sides have nuclear weapons.
         What does the US do when its aircraft carrier battle group is destroyed in the Black Sea? What does the US do if an expeditionary force of 10,000 or so troops is defeated and facing annihilation in Crimea/Ukraine?
        What does Russia do if its troops in Ukraine are defeated and NATO is pursuing them into Russia itself?
        Why do you think tactical nuclear weapons exist, of not for situations like that?
         Once nuclear weapons are in play, both sides will have their forces on launch on warning status.
         Because nuclear war is so horrific, we tend to think that it is unlikely. But if you read the history of the Cold War, you'll find that we've been damn lucky that it hasn't happened already.

      •  I think that there's a 50/50 chance... (0+ / 0-)

        ...of it happening or not, but that's an awful big price to pay if one loses the coin flip.

        The fact is, Western and Russian/Soviet troops never have gotten in conflict with one another directly, so we really don't know what would happen.  I think the possibility of global thermonuclear war as a result of such a scenario is much less than it was 40 years ago, but the possibility stil can't be dismissed.

        "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

        by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:33:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  main problem (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ZedMont

      is how West responds to Moscow's accusations that Kiev snipers were hired by Maidan leaders

      I think Western countries should press for UN commission to investigate these claims as it was with Rafik Hariri murder few years ago

      •  Cliams by the russian media should be taken.. (0+ / 0-)

        ....with massive grains of salt. Soviet propaganda is not dead.  It lives on as Russia Today.  Nothing they say should be believed without independent confirmation.  They have been caught in so many outright lies already, they make Fox News look honest.

        Yanukovych has pretty much openly admitted that the attacks on protestors were orchestrated by him, so Pravda, I mean Russia Today's, claims are most likely BS.

        I think some people forget how well the Soviets played the propaganda game.  Those skills have been passed on to their progeny running the current Russian tabloid media.

        "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

        by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:38:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The guy on the left (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    corvo, protectspice

    is Oleksandr  Turchynov.  The former speaker, now Interim President.  Interesting guy.  From the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc.  
    Unusually, for Ukraine, he is an Evangelical Baptist, in the tradition of the "Word of Life" Church, a very missionary oriented denomination that was very active in post cold war evangilization in the former USSR.   Socially conservative.

  •  Seems to me we have to recognize somebody (0+ / 0-)

    and these two guys are just as good as any other guys.

    Meh.

  •  Well, not quite: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    whizdom, InAntalya, Azazello
    Since Ukraine is conceivably nothing more than a money pit, the Europeans are wise to carefully weigh its option and actions before risking economic ties with Russia.

    [ . . . ]

    Smartly keeping its powder dry, the Europeans are content to let the United States take the lead and all the risk. Angela Merkel and company will simply hide in the thicket of confusion, until its clear Ukraine is worth the time, effort and expense.

    Last week the EU announced a $15 billion aid package to Ukraine, more than $11 billion of which consists of -- guess what -- bank loans.  The Grecianization of Ukraine is already underway.

    Dogs from the street can have all the desirable qualities that one could want from pet dogs. Most adopted stray dogs are usually humble and exceptionally faithful to their owners as if they are grateful for this kindness. -- H.M. Bhumibol Adulyadej

    by corvo on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 06:53:32 AM PDT

  •  I agree with the diarist (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    corvo, whizdom

    how quickly Obama embraced right-wing/ultra-right wing government of Ukraine which came to power after armed coup by Maidan militia & beating in Parliament toilet of pro-Yanukovich MPs & engineering part of his MPs controlled by oligarchs to switch sides.

    Besides new government reportedly dismiised all judges of Constitutional court, opening criminal cases against them, dismissed all governors replacing them with loyal oligarchs, now sends everywhere police to suppress protests - picture of right wing putsch is complete

    Why Obama progressive likes so much right wing & ultra right wing politicians whoc came to power after coup labelling them "democratic" speaks volume about his real views.

    •  Does everybody know this? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      corvo
      Besides new government reportedly dismiised all judges of Constitutional court, opening criminal cases against them,
    •  How quickly you embrace the right wing... (0+ / 0-)

      ..ultranationalist government of Russia which moved in troops into a sovereign state for the express purpose of occupying and subjugating it forever.

      For some reason, that's just hunky dory with you, though...

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:28:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think the Parent comment (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        corvo

        referred to our (the US) embrace of the new guys, considering their history.  I don't see anything about embracing the Russian POV or actions.  

      •  it's not ultranationalist (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        whizdom, corvo

        because Putin banned neonazi groups like National Bolshevik party in 2007, Russian Union, and other extremist groups in late 2000s, crushed racist football funs in 2010 and often he was accused in Russia of being anti-Russian for allowing visa free 10 mln migrants from poor Central Asia Muslim republics as well as wasting huge money on Caucasian autonomous republics like Chechnya.

        He likes to be called conservative when in fact his support base is mostly poor, pensioners, state salaried employees etc, his economic policy changed from liberal to more populist measures often associated in the West with typical left. However in social matters he's conservative, I can agree.

        Russia which moved in troops into a sovereign state for the express purpose of occupying and subjugating it forever.
        Russians don't see it this way, they think Crimea is Russian land populated by Russians, and it was accident of history blamed on drunk Yeltsin, that Crimea ended in Ukraine. So "occupying and subjugating fellow Crimean Russians forever" doesn't have many takers there.
        •  There are a bunch of Tartars that disagree with... (0+ / 0-)

          ...you.  Their houses are already being marked with X's by russian troops.  I wonder why... I'm sure it's for a good, wholesome reason.

          "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

          by LordMike on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 10:11:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Do you have a link (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            corvo

            For at house marking claim?

          •  Well they have reasons to fear (0+ / 0-)

            after their collaboration with Hitler during WW2 Stalin deported them to central Asia and they are naturally afraid.

            Today Russian installed PM of Crimea offered Tatars senior posts in his cabinet as weel as declared tatar language as second official language in a bid to win them over.

            In practice I don't see how Crimean tatars will suffer more in Russia than in Ukraine, in Russia minorities usually hold senior posts in local governments as well as national schools, press, culture, etc is supported by the state in order they won't forget their languages and culture. Small nations in Siberia and Arctic have access to free medicine, education and other benefits.

            It's markedly different policy vs minorities from what is practiced in US, Canada or Australia regarding native tribes who were robbed of their lands, languages and culture and subjects to alcoholic genocide by respective governments.

            I know that because I am half evenk half sakha (Siberian tribes) as well as from what I am learning in my twitter about plight of North American tribes.

          •  well they have reasons to fear (0+ / 0-)

            after collaboration with Hitler during WW2 Stalin deported them to Central Asia and they naturally afraid.

            However I don't see how this small minority (around 13% of Crimean population) can impose its will on total population and how modern Russia can persecute them now

        •  well, not so much drunk Yeltsin (0+ / 0-)

          as Ukrainian Khrushchev.  That's who reassigned Crimea to the then-Ukrainian SSR in the first place.

          Dogs from the street can have all the desirable qualities that one could want from pet dogs. Most adopted stray dogs are usually humble and exceptionally faithful to their owners as if they are grateful for this kindness. -- H.M. Bhumibol Adulyadej

          by corvo on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 11:40:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Russians (0+ / 0-)

            tried to russify Ukrainians in Soviet Union and remember the West called Soviets Russians for good reason.

            So Russians didn't think it's a big deal when Khrushev reassigned Crimea to USSR.

            In reality Crimea became Ukrainian in 1992 when Yeltsin, Kravchuk of Ukraine and Belarus leader (I forgot his name) signed agreement in Belovesh forest to dissolve Soviet Union.

            According to all accounts Kravchuk was so desperate to become independent from Moscow that he was ready to give up Russian Crimea back but Yeltsin didn't mention it, later it was already difficult and he only managed to get agreement for navy base and special status of Sevastopol.

            According to Simes who talked with Yeltsin, Yeltsin didn't think Ukrainian independence was for real, he thought Moscow would anyway control Kyiv and so on.

            But Kyiv elite thought otherwise, in 1994 they abolished Crimean constitution of 1992 with the right to secede and tore down Crimean laws declaring them unconstitutional.

            Current SBU chief Nalivaichenko harrassed Russian marines not allowing them to use cars in Crimea etc.
            Also Crimea is recepient of funds from Kyiv and Crimeans complained of stepmotherly attitude of central authorities despite big Russian payments for Sevastopol base.

            Still Putin got his chance to reclaim Crimea only because of shill anti-Russian rhetorics of Euromaidan leaders, mainly Yarosh and Tyahnibok. which raised anxiety of Russian Crimeans and because of overnight coup in Kyiv which gave Putin excuse of "unconstitionality" new regime.

            Of course nobody doubts "self-defence Crimean forces" consist of Russian army units without insignia and lame excuses of Putin that these militia bought uniforms in shops laughable.

            But it won't change situation because Russian Crimeans welcomed invasion and it's not Iraq, Poland or Afghanistan, Russian soldiers not foreigners there.

            •  Not so much the Russians (0+ / 0-)

              who tried to Russify Ukraine as Stalin -- a Georgian -- using the Russians to Russify the entire USSR.  The colonization extended from the Baltic States to Tyva for heaven's sake.

              Not that Russians would've objected, had they been asked (they weren't), as the Russian colonization of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Siberia had been on their agenda for centuries.

              All you're really saying is that 1992 preserved the status quo from 1954. :-)

              Your main point, which is in your last paragraphs, is of course entirely correct.

              Dogs from the street can have all the desirable qualities that one could want from pet dogs. Most adopted stray dogs are usually humble and exceptionally faithful to their owners as if they are grateful for this kindness. -- H.M. Bhumibol Adulyadej

              by corvo on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 12:28:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  anyone want to bet (4+ / 0-)

    on how long Yatsenyiuk lasts after the elections?

    Svoboda won 10% of the vote in the last elections--not marginal, by any means. Golden Dawn getting 6.9% in Greece was considered alarming. And they didn't have control of the police.

    Could probably get another 2 or 3% at least, with the Russians making their presence felt. If Crimea doesn't vote (and having seceded, I doubt they will), Svoboda's percentage of the vote surely increases even further with all those Russian-leaning voters out of the picture.

    If they succeed in provoking war with Russia, they'll surely be in an even better position to clean up at the polls.

    There's little wonder the Crimean local government has stopped answering to Kiev--if fascists were controlling the police and had an unknown level of influence over the national government, I would be very skeptical of any orders coming from on high.

    Yatseniyuk must be considered a cipher, especially since the first act of the government was to attempt to revoke the status of the Russian language (this was vetoed quickly, but it does tell you where their priorities lie). If the balance of power shifts away from him, he'll be the last to tell the US, and the US will be the last to know.

    Also, how much of that $1 billion Obama promised will end up in Svoboda's hands, I wonder? Probably quite a bit.

    "In America, the law is king." --Thomas Paine

    by limpidglass on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 07:49:16 AM PDT

    •  My money is on Viktor Pinchuk (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      corvo

      "An oligarch who we can trust".   Nice fella, big donor to Clinton Foundation.  Son in law to Leonid Kuchma.  

    •  you can draw scenarios (0+ / 0-)

      1. Best case scenario - West not stingy, announcing huge $10 bln immediate aid, 20-30-40 bln for reconstruction of economy.
      Russia somehow placated, trade of around $40 bln not affected by boycott or blockade, Ukrainian goods find their way to Russian market.
      2. Worst case scenario - West is stingy offers empty rhetorical speeches and little cash, Ukraine defaults on external debt, blockaded by Russia which cuts off gas as well (it's possible if the West starts new Cold War with confiscation of Russian assets).
      3. Political risks - how Yatseniuk manages to calm down fractured country, Russia stops pro-Russian intrigues in the East and South, how Crimean secession affects pro-Russian regions.

      There are so many variables that makes prediction difficult, but as usual pessimists hold upper hand. Maybe not the worst scenario will unfold but somewhere in the middle closer to worst than best.

      •  Best worst case (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        corvo

        is a modified status quo ante.  Ukraine stays intact, agrees to a non aligned status, not join Eurasian or EU common market arrangements (or NATO like security agreements) for 10 years.  Russia's basing rights in the Crimea are guaranteed for same period.  Russia re-affirms Ukrainian territorial integrity.
        Russia's application to OECD is unblocked by US.

        Worst case, Russia takes the whole Eastern part of Ukraine, east of the Dnieper, Tatars get fucked again, horrible civil war ensues within Ukraine, and nasty proxy wars in Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, maybe Egypt and North Africa.  Many cyberattacks, some seriously damaging.

        •  don't think (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          whizdom

          Crimea was about bases as Russia has them near Sochi. it was about Russian majority on peninsula who erroneously or rightly fear Western Ukrainian govt in Kyiv as well as fulfilling long cherished Russian dream of returning Crimea ceded to Ukraine 20 years earlier (I discount Khrushev because then Ukraine was Russified under Soviet rule)

          as Gates said Crimea is gone and if Yatseniuk real kamikaze he can declare war on Russia inviting occupation and further dismemberment of his country

          Real scenarios I read today always emphasized economy and political risks

          the best is here

          this also not bad

          •  Thanks (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            corvo

            Both good reads.  
            The reason I say a break up is unlikely is because we (the US) have said so definitively we are against it.  Rule of law and all that.

            But thinking about it, is Russia's assertion of territorial and security interests in Crimea, or even to Kiev,  that much different from Israel's assertion of same in E Jerusalem, West Bank and Golan?  

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