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Cross-posted at ACA Signups
Sarah Kliff at Vox just announced that the February HHS report is expected to be released today at around 4:00pm. A few items in anticipation of that:

As I've noted several times, I'm projecting the report to total around 902,000 exchange-based private QHP enrollments for the month of February (technically 2/02 - 3/01)
—If accurate, this would bring the cumulative total of exchange-based private QHP enrollments to 4.202 million (from 10/1/13 - 3/01/14)
—From the data I have, the average daily enrollment rate in February was almost identical to that of January, which had about 1.146 million QHP enrollments. HOWEVER, the January report included five weeks of data (12/28 - 2/01), while the February report will only include four weeks (2/02 - 3/01). Therefore, even at the same daily average, it'll be about 20% lower no matter what.
—Don't be surprised if Peter Lee of CoveredCA decides to steal some thunder by announcing that California has enrolled 1,000,000 QHPs all by itself either today or tomorrow. However, that would include the past 10 days, while the HHS number will only run thru 3/01.
If you want to get REALLY specific, call it 902,800 and 4,202,292.

—Regarding March, I do have some very preliminary numbers from the first week of March for six states, and overall there's definitely an uptick so far, but it's far too early to have any idea how much of one. The bottom line is that March (which will only count 30 days, since March 1st will be included on the February report) will have to hit around double the February enrollment rate in order to hit the revised CBO 6 Million number, and nearly triple the February rate in order to hit the original CBO 7 million number. Doubling the rate (around 64,000/day) would require a similar surge to what we saw in December. Tripling it would require outpacing December by 50%. Doable? Perhaps. Likely? Probably not, but who the hell knows?

ONE MORE THING: The report will be released in about 10 minutes, but my kid's bus gets home from school in 12, so it'll be a good 20 minutes or so before I can post the actual results. I'm sure you'll hear about it from Sarah Kliff at Vox well before I post it here, but I'll do so anyway ASAP :)

UPDATE: OK, sorry about the longer-than-expected delay...my kid got off the bus all pouty, turns out he tripped, fell and got a bloody nose at school today :(

The good news is he's fine now, just a bit of swelling, have an ice pack on his nose. Of course, if he does need any medical care, Obamacare will cover him lol...

Anyway, the report is out, here's the official numbers for February:

My Feb. Projection: 902,800
Actual: 942,833;

My Total Projection: 4.202 million
Actual: 4,242,325

I underestimated by about 4.2%, which is perfectly fine with me :)

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Comment Preferences

  •  can people still (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, TXdem

    sign up after March?

    •  Only through 3/31, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TXdem, rsmpdx

      though I think there may be exceptions for certain applicants in a few states, like Oregon, where the exchanges were FUBAR. Brainwrap can probably provide a much more detailed answer!

      •  Oregon legislature passed a bill (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sylv, itskevin, ahumbleopinion

        last week before their adjournment, instructing Cover Oregon to request an extension on enrollments to April 30. Gov. Kitzhaber is expected to sign it. Or he may have already, I don't know.

        (This is based on the failure of Cover Oregon's web site. Still hasn't enrolled anyone, although some 40K, roughly, have signed up through paper process.)

        Then it will be in Fed's court whether to allow the extension.

        Salem Statesman Journal: Where Cover Oregon Stands After Legislative Session

        3) Extending the open enrollment period

        Per the Affordable Care Act, the open enrollment period ends March 31 for marketplace health insurance plans. Oregon hopes to get a monthlong extension to give Oregonians more time, considering the delays that came with an unfinished website and a last resort hybrid paper-computer application process.

        HB 4154 includes a provision that requires Cover Oregon to seek this waiver.

        While this one hasn’t come down the pike yet, there seems to be an expectation it will.

        For instance, Cover Oregon’s transitional agreement with Oracle lasts through April.

        The agreement basically says that the two parties will not sue each other and Oracle won’t walk away from its work due to the money the exchange is withholding for the remainder of the open enrollment period.

        Greenlick also said that he’s optimistic that another CMS announcement is on its way, because the federal government has been offering exceptions and delays in various ways as the ACA has been rolling out.

        “I’m still hopeful on that,” he said.

        I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

        by rsmpdx on Tue Mar 11, 2014 at 02:23:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Of course you can, you can sign up for insurance (0+ / 0-)

      anytime you want.  Although to avoid the individual mandate you would have to sign up before the end of March.  You would still be able to use the exchanges and qualify for subsidies.

      •  No, you wouldn't be able to use the exchanges (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, TXdem, sulthernao, CoyoteMarti

        after 3/31 until the next open enrollment period, which begins on Nov 1, I believe.

        There may be exceptions in a few states, though, as mentioned above.

        •  Thanks for the correction. (0+ / 0-)

          That just doesn't seem like it's very logical to me?  I guess nothing about our healthcare system is logical though.

          So this is where I am lost,

          If I want to spend money and buy something, I should be able to do that anytime of the year, right?  So if I called the insurance company in May and offered to give them money for their service, surely they'd find a way to offer me their product?  I don't see how the exchanges is any different?  Isn't it just a marketplace that allows large pools of people to investigate a lot of different offerings at one time, say similar to a shopping mall?  So if Sears/JCPenny/Gamestop are all open for business, why would the mall doors be shut?

          What's am I missing?

          •  Good questions (6+ / 0-)

            The biggest reason it's different is that with health insurance, if you weren't required to sign up for a policy by a certain date each year, and insurance companies couldn't deny you coverage for pre-existing conditions, many, many people would just not buy coverage until they needed it. And that would drive up costs for those who did maintain coverage year-round.

            Having said that, I may have missed a big piece in my reply above. I believe consumers can buy purchases midyear if they meet certain preset criteria -- e.g. there's a change in their employment status (and their work-based plan is canceled) or they get married, have a baby, etc. But other than that, they've got to wait for the next open enrollment.

          •  It's to prevent people from waiting to buy (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Sylv, ahumbleopinion

            insurance until after they get sick. That kind of defeats the purpose of insurance...leads to adverse selection, higher premiums, and would bankrupt insurance companies. By limiting enrollment to specified periods of the year you avoid  this problem. This is the lesser of two evils. Of course insurance companies would love to enroll healthy individuals after the open enrollment period, but they would not want to insure people with pre-existing conditions or those who get sick.

            You can, however, sign-up after March 31st if you have a "life event" (i.e., lose your job/insurance, move, have a child, etc). Also the small business exchanges allow for enrollment all through out the year - the idea being that a company comprised of a number of individuals will not be as prone to the aforementioned "moral hazard" issues. Insurance is not a normal consumer good.

        •  Can sign up within 60 days of (0+ / 0-)

          a "Qualifying Event", such as:

          ... special enrollment options throughout the year for individuals and families who become eligible for coverage in the marketplace due to a “qualifying event.” Some examples of qualifying events:

              A change in income.
              A change in your status, such as marriage, death of a spouse, divorce, legal separation or annulment.
              A change in your number of dependents, including birth, death, adoption or placement for adoption.
              A change in your employment status, or the employment status of your spouse or dependent.
              A dependent becoming ineligible for existing coverage due to attainment of age.

          You will have 60 days from the date of the qualifying event to secure new coverage without incurring a penalty.

          per Affordable Care Act HQ.

          I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

          by rsmpdx on Tue Mar 11, 2014 at 03:17:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wouldn't you be able to buy insurance if you (0+ / 0-)

          had a life change event?  New Job, no job, married, divorced, turned 26, new baby, spouse died, etc.

          “The future depends entirely on what each of us does every day.” Gloria Steinem

          by ahumbleopinion on Tue Mar 11, 2014 at 03:34:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Awesome, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, TXdem, Sylv

    I'm hoping you've undershot the February totals. But based on your recent successes, I wouldn't put money on it. :)

  •  It's 900k (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv

    per Kliff on Twitter:

    About 900,000 people signed up for Obamacare in February. Projection was 1.2 million.
  •  Brainwrap (8+ / 0-)

    I don't read all your diaries on this subject (just glance in occasionally to see the latest) but decided to stop right now and take the time to say:  Thank you!

    You're a gem!

    They don't win until we quit fighting!

    by Eyesbright on Tue Mar 11, 2014 at 01:06:40 PM PDT

  •  Projecting March totals (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao

    Actual total for Feb, 942833. Per day (28 days) about 33762.

    March projection (30 days) at Feb rate, 1,010,178.

    At 2X Feb rate, 2,020,356. (Both approximate.)

    I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

    by rsmpdx on Tue Mar 11, 2014 at 02:04:13 PM PDT

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