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Charlie Cook:

Looking at this November's midterms, then, the wind certainly appears to be blowing in favor of Republicans. The main question is whether it is a light, moderate, strong, or hurricane-force wind. In terms of cycles, on the other hand, Democrats picked up just eight House seats in 2012, after having lost 63 seats in 2010 and having gained 52 seats in the solid Democratic years of 2006 and 2008 combined. The House is pretty much sorted out, and minimal change can be expected. Republicans look likely to pick up a handful of seats.

But because Republicans won so many governorships—23—in 2010, they should be prepared to lose seats this year. The only question that remains is to what extent the seasonal partisan winds and the GOP's midterm-election-turnout edge will offset a scenario otherwise favorable to Democrats. Right now, Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy (who oversees both gubernatorial and senatorial coverage) predicts Democrats will net two to four governorships.

Both seasonal and cyclical forces are working against Senate Democrats, suggesting a really bad year for the party in the upper chamber. Duffy currently sees Republicans picking up four to six Senate seats. A bigger gain of seven or more seats is more likely for Senate Republicans this election than a smaller gain of three or fewer.

Greg Sargent:
To be clear, this dance could work for Republicans, given how bad the fundamentals are for Dems. But if Begala is right, aggressively attacking Republicans over Obamacare, and fighting for the law rather than just defending it, will make the GOP strategy of keeping ”replace” vague harder to sustain. And it will gin up the Dem base — addressing the Democrats’ most pressing Obamacare problem.
More politics and policy below the fold.

Ed Kilgore:

It could be the difference between a tough year with limited losses, setting up Democrats for a boffo 2016 when the Senate landscape improves immensely and a presidential electorate is in play, and something more like 2010. And Plouffe’s right: there’s no magic technological instrument at hand. It will take exceptional targeting, but also a lot of old-fashioned motivation. A good start would be a refusal to take the bait and panic over Obamacare, which remains more or less a wash, best as we can tell.
Dana Milbank:
The administration announced last week that only 1.08 million people ages 18 to 34 had signed up for Obamacare by the end of February, or about 25 percent of total enrollees. If the proportion doesn’t improve significantly, the result likely will be fatal for the Affordable Care Act.
That's simply untrue. Because of the three R's (reinsurance, risk adjustment and risk corridors), ACA is stable for the next year and beyond, even with the current mix. What matters in the long run (and what is still to be determined) is how many healthy people of any age sign up. But the program doesn't succeed or fail based on the mix on March 31.

Brett Logiuarato:

A top campaign advisor to Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democratic challenger to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, scoffed at the notion McConnell is "invincible" in a new memo set to be released Friday.

The memo from Grimes campaign senior advisor Jonathan Hurst, which was obtained by Business Insider, comes one day after The New York Times published a lengthy analysis of the unprecedented nature of a potential McConnell loss.

"We do not think that 'it hasn't happened before' is good analysis or a smart way to run a campaign," one Grimes campaign adviser told Business Insider. "One of the hardest messages to win on is 'invincibility.'"

NBC News:
The document comes a day after Nate Cohn of the New York Times wrote that “Mitch McConnell is not as vulnerable as he seems,” writing that McConnell will benefit from the state’s favorable environment for Republicans and dismal ratings for the president.
Here's Nate's piece.

NY Times:

Facing a possible defeat in the Senate, the White House is considering delaying a vote on President Obama’s choice for surgeon general or withdrawing the nomination altogether, an acknowledgment of its fraying relationship with Senate Democrats.

The nominee, Dr. Vivek H. Murthy, an internist and political ally of the president’s, has come under criticism from the National Rifle Association, and opposition from the gun-rights group has grown so intense that it has placed Democrats from conservative states, several of whom are up for re-election this year, in a difficult spot.

You can't do much when you don't have the votes. We're still not where we need to be.
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Comment Preferences

  •  Oh, dear (29+ / 0-)

    Depressing to think of a Republican blowout in the November elections.

    However, a lot can happen in eight months.

    Thanks for the roundup, Greg!

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 04:42:34 AM PDT

    •  It is amazing, I mean what has Republicans done to (15+ / 0-)

      actually garner them a blowout win in November again? Let me see...done nothing, I mean absolutely nothing but attempt to kill a healthcare law 51 times...a healthcare law that has already seen 4.2 million people signed up on its exchange and...wait a second, didn't they shut down the gubment, costing the country 24 billion dollars? And...hmmm.... I seem to recall they cut off unemployment insurance for millions of out of work people and did this during Christmas!  And, wait a second, am I being silly or did they they obstruct the President from doing anything at all that will help the nation? Didn't they  block the President from creating more jobs? Block the passage of a gun law that 95% of the public favors, refuse to vote on an immigration law that a majority of the nation favors, oh and take food out of the mouths of hungry children (BIG APPLAUSE!!)... Oh, I see, what a stellar record of accomplishment these Republicans have amassed, I mean, no wonder voters will reward them big time with wins in November!

      We live in a society, I think, that has lost its marbles...well, actually not lost em...the Republicans took em.....

      •  Senate wise it's just the lineup of states (3+ / 0-)

        House wise? Gerrymandering and Dem midterm apathy.

      •  The problem with citing the signups as (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        hassanm

        a positive is that you are assuming people are happy about it. Being forced to buy ACA is not the same as liking the ACA.

        New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

        by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 07:41:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, if an individual is finally able to gain (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Patango, Odysseus, Linda1961, Chas 981

          access to healthcare that could cure an existing illness, because of the benefits of the Affordable Care Act, but yet wants to give Republicans the power to kill the law and kill his/her ability to receive care...

          May I suggest that such an individual is exhibiting behavior far beyond what is normally considered rational... And therefore represents the fringe among us.

          •  Not disagreeing, just pointing out the (0+ / 0-)

            reality that even here in SF, there plenty people who are not happy they were forced off of their plans. Shortsighted? Of course, but it's a reality that we have to acknowledge.

            New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

            by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:09:45 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Abysmal messaging/marketing (4+ / 0-)

        by the Democrats and this administration.

        Lies go unchallenged, but partly because the media doesn't invite a response.  The dominance of the Republican message has been facilitated by what we foolishly still call the "press".

        Republicans get together and strategize on a daily basis and get their message and language lined up.  They all sound alike and then their dittoheads in the public repeat it verbatim.

        Bottom line is, there is no one out there drumming the points you mention above, even though it is time for a ceaseless pounding of the message.  At this point, "anyone but a Republican" could be working if it had ever been played right.

        Government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth - Abraham Lincoln

        by Gustogirl on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 08:15:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  You know this, and I know this (2+ / 0-)

        but corporate media likes to play the "both sides" canard, and claim that everything is good for Republicans and bad for Democrats.

        I'm living in America, and in America you're on your own. America's not a country. It's just a business.

        by CFAmick on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 08:33:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Can't understand why bringing our troops (16+ / 0-)

    home from the Bush/Cheney wars isn't being played up at all.  And we need to be reminded that there was no plan to pay for those wars even as the neo-cons are once again smelling MIC money in the wind if only we'd dash into the Ukraine/Crimea/Russia fray.  We are a nation that just does not remember.  Just ask a veteran.

    Building a better America with activism, cooperation, ingenuity and snacks.

    by judyms9 on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 04:44:19 AM PDT

    •  Democrats (23+ / 0-)

      are not bringing anything the republicans have done or are doing to the forefront for people to see. If they wait for MSM to do it, then all is lost. They have to find a way to show low info voters what the hell is going on. If you show those voters what is happening, most will do the right thing, unfortunately they must be shown as they won't take the time to research themselves. This is why the Fox News constant drumbeat is so effective.

      If you are not the lead dog, the view never changes.

      by RepresentUsPlease on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:15:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We remember wars that happen in our homeland (5+ / 0-)

      better than those that happen "over there". When I write 'we' I mean those of us lucky enough not to have to go over there. It seems to me that our Civil War is a more lasting collective memory than WW1 and I am not sure how much memory there is of WW2. Last night I caught a tv show on the Battle of the Bulge. Kids today might think this had to do with building an abdominal six pack but my father was in it and it left him shaky until his recent death. Those who end up going "over there", if they make it back, they remember the details forever.

      •  Unfortunately too true. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, singe

        Recently I read a piece that said the number of veterans in Congress was at or near an all time low. When there's no reps who've actually witnessed war first hand (and a bunch of chickenhawks instead) nothing good can come of it. I hate to say it, but if anything good comes from our military adventurism in Iraq and Afghanistan it will be that there are at least a few Americans in my generation who understand the costs of war first hand.

        Also, my grandfather was an anti-air gunner on the USS North Carolina. He told my father once that every single night since the war he dreamed he was back on the deck of that ship. It blows my mind how something could have such a powerful and long-term affect on your psyche.

        •  Well we seen to have made a whole bunch of war (0+ / 0-)

          veterans over the past ten or so years. That should cange.

          The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness

          by CTMET on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 04:19:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The nation as whole has moved on. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, rl en france, wishingwell

      It is all about social issues and to a lesser extent the economy. It should be reversed.

      New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

      by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:18:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's always about the econmomy (7+ / 0-)

        and that's the problem for the Dems. Until the middle class starts feeling like there has been an economic recovery, every election is a change election. Low info voters don't try to assign blame based on policy choices. They just want change. And are just as willing to vote for a (tax breaks for the oil companies and damn the food stamps) GOP candidate in order to get change.

        You will not be punished for your anger. You will be punished by your anger.

        by mstep on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:50:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The Dems in the Senate apparently do not want to (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      codairem, judyms9

      have the power because then they would have to do something.
      Hashtag Dem Senators hashtag margaritas hashtag poolside hashtag pinot noir hashtag brie hashtag art show opening hashtag send out emails for money hashtag lol hashtag fleece the sheep.

      You can't make this stuff up.

      by David54 on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:59:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So I guess we should just hand over the elections (31+ / 0-)

    to Mitch and Boner and start watching Housewives of Mobile Alabama for kicks? I don't think so. My congressman is Gibson up here in NY and he is a smart, sneaky right wing nut. I will work really hard to beat him and I will phone bank etc for Senate candidates around the country and when the election is over.....then read the analysis. And I have been in this game a long time and the one big thing I have learned is that the painted ponies go up and down.

  •  Gonna be ug-lee (3+ / 0-)

    And listening to the GOP and pundits crow wlil make it worse.

    Hurry 2016.

  •  bad (12+ / 0-)
    Forests Around Chernobyl Aren’t Decaying Properly

    It wasn't just people, animals and trees that were affected by radiation exposure at Chernobyl, but also the decomposers: insects, microbes, and fungi

    http://www.smithsonianmag.com/...

    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

    by Greg Dworkin on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 04:49:36 AM PDT

  •  Maybe the Dems should, you know, CAMPAIGN. (44+ / 0-)

    Where the hell are the TV commercials of people THANKFUL that the ACA has let them deal with medical crises or kept them out of bankruptcy??  The people exist - why aren't they on TV?

    Leaving the airwaves to the Koch brothers for six months can only be explained as a death wish.

    •  This has been a problem for decades (21+ / 0-)

        The Dems will never thrive as a party until their leadership stops tumbling into Republican framing for just about every issue. Alex Sink in Florida is the latest example -- by coming out for Social Security cuts she basically threw that election.

        Republicans are much, much more gung-ho about their political identity than Democrats are  -- this applies to the leadership and to the rank-and-file.  Until our officeholders do some things that we can be proud of, and proudly stand by these things, this isn't going to improve.

       

      "Le ciel est bleu, l'enfer est rouge."

      by Buzzer on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:23:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And start working GOTV efforts to knock on doors (13+ / 0-)

      And phone banking and using the Internet creatively. We have a very fractured GOP going into this race. We see polls with majorities if Americans supporting more fairness of opportunity and income which Dems are campaigning on. In many ways we have a better than average advantage of at least minimizing their wins.

      We need to put all efforts into supporting Democratic clubs, supporting orgs. Like DFA, PDA, putting the OFA, unions and PACs and 527's into presidential year mode. It mostly requires leadership directed at the local level and engaging volunteers and giving them lots to do. It's all about the 50 state strategy.

      •  Well said Noodles, we need massive GOTV that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Noodles

        is detailed, well organized, and runs as smoothly and effectively as OFA does with presidential elections.

        I have been doing GOTV for 40 years as of this fall, and I never saw anything like the Obama campaign. It was so well organized, detailed, meticulous and like a well oiled machine.

        Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

        by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 08:46:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Koch, and other oligarch driven campaigns, double (4+ / 0-)

      an advantage the TP/GOP has in any off or off-off year or minor local election is in play.

      First, the base is much more of the single or very limited, simple slogan/message, true believer. They have a religious fervor, truly religious or identical in practice. Trigger any of their fears or passions and they will climb steps to the shrine on their knees. They will turn out snow or rain or whatever to "stop the gay" or "stop the blacks" or "save the embryos" while our more nuanced base will party on and fail to show up when it really counts—when those top drawing names need a bench to back them up in legislative and local seats. "Our side" too often seems to think they can have a winning season and Superbowl based on a star quarterback without a line.

      Then comes the money. An oligarch driven campaign is coherent, planned, engineered using experts money can buy to pound a message to that base and others leaning toward those views. They may even have tame media outlets to assist. There is a tendency for those centrally organized campaigns to work.

      True believers driven by coherent drumbeats fueling discontent, hate and fear is a tough opponent. Communists, Nazis, Fascists and other minority ideologies were highly successful hijacking less organized populations in many a country.

      To repeat:

      I've always said, an alert, observant and sensible electorate could not be swayed by tons of money dumped into propaganda rivaling that of 20th Century dictatorships. Unfortunately reality is that far too many "citizens" pay more attention to a new outfit to wear than the facts and record of those running for office and are swayed by sound bites and blurbs. They simply sell their vote, often against their best interest, to the ads money buys.
      Those pots of money work if we depend on the party with fewer big pots on its side to counter them. The best counter is at our individual level—and I'm not thinking purely of our limited small contributions of cash. In our own circles we can be thoughtful to counter the oligarch and radical TP/GOP message at every possible point. We are not likely to sway their base voters, but some of those low information voters can be informed. Most of all we need to convince our better informed that sitting out any election, that failing to vote strategically every election even if holding our noses, is suicide.

      The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

      by pelagicray on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:26:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Democrats-We're fighting for your health. (9+ / 0-)

      Don't justify or defend or make excuses for the ACA. Champion the ACA.

      The Republican motto: "There's been a lot of progress in this country over the last 75 years, and we've been against all of it."

      by Hillbilly Dem on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:36:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Great tag line, after a series of clips of ... (3+ / 0-)

        ... the Republicans against Affordable Care. Not much more needs to be said.

        Short, inexpensive ad, run again and again. (Maybe done by people who do not usually make political TV and radio ads, so it sounds less like a political ad and more like the truth.)

        2014 is HERE. Build up the Senate. Win back the House : 17 seats. Plus!

        by TRPChicago on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:46:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  EXactaf**kingmundo! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TerryDarc

      Not just a top comment, should be the only comment from every Dem who gets an effing fundraising email.

      You can't make this stuff up.

      by David54 on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 07:10:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well said. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mr MadAsHell, TerryDarc

      Running against Republicans should be as easy as shooting fish in a barrel.

      Just how big-ass of a target does the Democratic Party  need to develop a winning strategy?  Once and for all, perfecting the art of  hand-wringing and being afraid of the shadow of its former self are not  effective strategies for the Democratic Party to attract voter support.  For too long,  Democrats have been practicing invertebrate politics, and nothing turns off  voters and prospective voters faster.

      There are posters on this site who, if given a fraction of the resources the DNC has squandered for years on alleged political strategists, could put together a winning campaign in November.

  •  Co-Sen: recent CIA-oversight hero M.Udall benefits (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ban nock

    from White House going slow on gun control,

    according this analysis of both Colorado US Senators' 2013 votes: http://thecoloradoobserver.com/...

  •  No hope for D's in Nov? In what way, Charlie? (18+ / 0-)

    So you think we should just give up and wave the white flag now?  I know I don't plan on stopping my efforts at making Rick Scott a one term governor.  

    Don't forget it is a loooong time until November.  Plenty of time for the R's to

    Misstep
    Shoot themselves in the foot
    Practice Foot in Mouth maneuvers
    Lead off with the wrong foot
    Keep a foot in both camps of an issue (Hello, Rand Paul)
    Make idiotic "Wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole" remarks

    As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them. John F. Kennedy

    by JaxDem on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 04:56:55 AM PDT

    •  Cook's analysis is faulty, IMHO (15+ / 0-)

      I think Cook et al misjudge the mood of the country. There's a very strong "throw the bums out" streak running through the nation's mood right now that I think will affect a number of House and state races. In the Senate, I think we'll at least hold on — a lot of Republicans will simply not be able to resist shooting themselves in the foot.

      I think what Cook fails to realize is the extent to which Republicans are sealed in their self-affirming bubble. They really do believe the American people agree with them. They don't.

      That said, Dems campaigning this year need to be aggressive in their support for ObamaCare, raising the minimum wage, and protecting the environment (see West Va. And North Carolina). If we do that, we can win. If we don't, we lose.

      I vote we run Rick Scott out of Florida on a high-speed rail.

      by ObamOcala on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:31:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What numbers do you have to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mstep

        chow that his analysis is faulty? Go back and read a few diaries from 2010. It was the same happy talk and head in sand bullshit. Charlie Cook was Nate Silver before Nate Silver. No where near as famous, but just as credible.

        New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

        by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:26:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed. The River Denialnran deep 4 years ago (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AlexDrew, Sue B

          Still is.

          No one is giving up but our strongest voting blocs simply don't come out strongly enough in midterms, excepting 2006 when we had Bush 'on our side.'

        •  Here are your numbers- Cook is a rightie mole (5+ / 0-)

            You wanted numbers. Try this. Charlie Cook sees GOP winning big in 2012.

             His prediction 1 year before the election? GOP would pick up 6-10 seats in the Senate.

            Reality: Dems +2.

            Cook is a rightie GOP insider trying to make Dems demoralized. Ignore that guy until Fall, when he has to start making predictions match the polls. But in March, Nate Silver he isn't- more like Scott Rasmussen

          •  These guys constantly adjust their models (0+ / 0-)

            and I think you know that. What was his prediction that summer? Fall? What makes him right wing? Why invest so  much energy in one prognosticator if he is so wrong. That fact is, he was Nate Silver before Silver came on the scene.

            New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

            by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 08:14:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  So why are you buying his crap now? (3+ / 0-)

               Stop sucking up to this guy. He's constantly got a rightie lean in his "analysis", and this is especially true this early in the game. Your concern (trolling) is noted, but it doesn't stop us in the reality-based community from taking Chuckles Cook too seriously 7 1/2 months before an election. Like most of DC, he has no clue what the "national mood" is, or if it means anything for the ballot box.

                 

              •  Alexdrew says (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Jake formerly of the LP
                That fact is, he was Nate Silver before Silver came on the scene.
                Alex's comment was just blow up with your facts , most dems  know how people like Cook got it all wrong in 2012 , Cook and all were probably calling team romney ryan and planning a power grab party in August

                The attempt to lump Nate in with all that speaks for its self , observing this commenter around this site , one might think he is new to the dem party  

                Beer Drinkers & Hell Raisers

                by Patango on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:00:00 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Look up the history going back 20 years. (0+ / 0-)

                  New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

                  by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:06:31 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I do not need to go back 20 years (0+ / 0-)

                    Beer Drinkers & Hell Raisers

                    by Patango on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:12:31 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Of course not! You win. But I hope you are right. (0+ / 0-)

                      New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

                      by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:14:51 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I am not trying to win anything (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        AlexDrew

                        the failing echo chamber of washington dc corporate media speaks for its self , their predictions and claims are shredded again and again , then a week later their pals hold them up as some kind of vanguard any way , I enjoy some of The Cook's reporting , but I do my own verifying when it comes to these inside the bubble types  

                        Beer Drinkers & Hell Raisers

                        by Patango on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:34:05 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

              •  Because usually in the summer on through the (0+ / 0-)

                election, he is spot on. Look up his overall record. He is not a partisan. Also, look at diaries from the same time in 2010. A lot of people were saying the same thing as you. it's cute and hopeful, but not reality. And wishful thinking has replaced critical/reality thinking since BHO took office.

                Take 30 minutes and at his record going back to 1992, which was when I became aware of him.

                New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

                by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:03:20 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  It ain't Summer (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sebastianguy99, Phoenix Woman

                  This is agenda-setting time with pundits. Cook consistently puts right-wing frames and leanings into his "analysis". And if you were remotely honest, you'd admit that.

                    Just because Chuckles Cook is smart enough to adjust his predictions to fit the numbers in Fall doesn't mean he's not dishonest and biased before then. Anyone thinking 2012 would be a GOP year after the debt ceiling mess of 2011 was saying so because they wanted a certain outcome. PERIOD.

                  •  Come on!!! Look at his history and tell me where (0+ / 0-)

                    he is right wing. Can you admit that even Nate Silver adjusts his models based on polling and other data? Charlie Cook is no different. Look at his overall record.

                    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                    Still think he's a Republican? Show me.

                    New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

                    by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:26:36 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Did you READ my comment? (3+ / 0-)

                  I'm not being complacent. I'm saying Cook is wrong IN MY OPINION, and I'm saying Dems can win if they run on the issues Americans care about.

                  Our candidates need to run on ObamaCare, they need to run on raising the minimum wage, and they need to run on protecting and strengthening Social Security.

                  There's no question we have our work cut out for us. But there's also no question there are a large number of Americans who want their government to work for the people.

                  If Dems run the kind of wishy-washy campaigns Alex Sink ran in FL-13, Cook's predictions will probably prove right. But many Dems are fighting back. They're challenging Koch-funded ads by calling out the Koch brothers by name. They're going head-on at Republicans like Mitch McConnell. I think it's a good strategy, and I think it will pay off. I don't claim to have any special insight Charlie Cook doesn't have. We'll know in November if he was right.

                  But complacency? Happy talk? Wishful thinking? No fking way. I live in FL-11, which is gerrymandered to be 60% Republican. We actually have a progressive challenging Tea Party toady Rich Nugent this time around. I'm going to donate what I can, work for his campaign, and try to GOTV for him. Do I think he'll beat Nugent? Not likely. The demographics here are certainly against it. But I'll be damned if I'm going to raise the white flag and surrender just because Charlie Cook says I should. I know what it's like to live in a city, county and state run by Republicans. I don't like it. And while I may not be able to end it, that doesn't mean I'm not going to try.

                  Happy talk, my ass. I'm under no illusions we've got an uphill fight on our hands. But it's a fight we need to engage in. There's too much at stake to give it up.

                  I vote we run Rick Scott out of Florida on a high-speed rail.

                  by ObamOcala on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 01:27:42 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Also, what makes him "rightie"? (0+ / 0-)

                New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

                by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:04:29 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Cook constantly predicts Tim Walz' doom (0+ / 0-)

              Tim Walz has MN-01 for as long as he wants it, yet Charlie Cook has always pitched him as facing Serious Threats from the local GOP talent.  (Sally Jo Sorensen eviscerated Cook's fantasies in this regard here: http://www.bluestemprairie.com/... )

              In fact, the local GOP talent was (and still is) so laughable that I invented the term "clown car" to describe Tim Walz' Republican opponents in his first re-election campaign:

              http://phoenixwoman.wordpress.com/...

              http://firedoglake.com/...

              Visit http://theuptake.org/ for Minnesota news as it happens.

              by Phoenix Woman on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 02:28:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  The real Nate Silver will be back on Monday (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sebastianguy99

            at FiveThirtyEight.com.

            When Cook sticks to data he isn't bad. I find his Partisan Voting Index a very useful tool.

            It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
            Yogi Berra

            Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

            by Mokurai on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:37:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Generic congressional ballot... (0+ / 0-)

          Is basically even right now (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/... , RCP, I know...)  You're a hack if you simply look at the polls and conclude Republican wave.  Because any such prediction relies on tons of wishful thinking, conventional wisdom and, chiefly, lazy analogies to 2010.  In 2010, the polls broke hard for Republicans only in the last month or two; yes that "could" happen again, but polls "could" also break the other way, or they could not break at all, or something else could happen.  The Republican wave prediction relies on looking at polls, seeing Democrats don't have a huge lead and then throwing in a few assumptions (that strangely aren't reflected in current polling) about people hating Obama and Obamacare (i.e., cherry picking current polls you like to make a prediction about a current poll you don't like---the generic congressional poll), then betting on an irrationally large gerrymandering benefit for Republicans, Democratic apathy and tea party enthusiasm.  The senate polling---in this case actual individual races---ain't that bad at this point either, unless you assume as some people apparently do that Republicans win every race where the Democrat isn't up by 4 or more.

    •  I dunno. I don't see any path to us taking (8+ / 0-)

      the House back.

      Sure doesn't mean we can't make gains there, or that saving the Senate is entirely out of reach.

  •  ACA will be a negative for Senate Dems in (4+ / 0-)

    red states.

    Others on here disagree I know, but we'll know after November (or after the December Louisiana runoff in the Mary Landrieu - Cassidy race).

    I agree with Obama's former adviser Plouffe (?) who said after the recent FL-13 Dem loss to a very flawed Republican candidate that the GOP opposition to Obamacare and the constant unrelenting "independent" (GOP) TV and radio ads against the ACA are motivating Republicans to vote - and that their higher turnout helped defeat the Dem, Ms. Sink.

    That's all the GOP needs to do in a lower turnout mid-year election.  Get more of their base to vote than our unmotivated base.  That's their formula for the recent FL special election.

    The Cock (sic) brothers' group is spending a gazillion dollars already running ads against our vulnerable Dems in NC, LA and other states beating the same drum - with an additional focus on "Obama and Senator [X]'s lie" that "if you like your health plan, you can keep it".  The ads are unrelenting.  They WILL have an impact.  I think it is naive to think otherwise.

    Harry Reid needs to schedule a vote on the Sen Landrieu bill to solve the political and policy problem of the "if you like your health plan, you can keep it" misleading statement by Obama.  [The GOP calls it Obama's lie.  What is indisputable is that Obama's statement was not accurate.  That's a fact - not a slur, not a misrepresentation.]  Obama did grave damage to the ACA rollout by that misstatement - and I fear several Dems for Senate and House will pay the price for his misleading statement.

    Kos has said the Landrieu bill is a win - win for Democrats.  Harry Reid needs to let that bill come up for a vote.

  •  50 States (14+ / 0-)

    I don't understand why the Democratic Party and Progressives are so quick to give in to the moneyed interests like the Koch Brothers.  We need a fighter like Howard Dean with a 50 state strategy ready to contest every seat in the Congress.

    Voters should select people to represent them in their government. People in government should not select people who may vote!

    by NM Ray on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:10:56 AM PDT

  •  Worth noting that on this day in 1965 (10+ / 0-)

    President Lyndon Johnson made his famous "We Shall Overcome" speech at a joint session Congress to urge the passage of legislation guaranteeing voting rights for all.  
    .

    ,

    49 years ago.  We are still fighting.  49 years later.

    As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them. John F. Kennedy

    by JaxDem on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:16:02 AM PDT

  •  Hope and change -- not likely (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    praenomen

    We could hope that our failed President would begin to care more about his place in history than his golf score, and take the debate back to the ordinary folks who are now sadly so beaten down and lied to that they don't even bother to vote.

    But that's not likely.

    Labor was the first price paid for all things. It was not by money, but by labour, that all wealth of the world was originally purchased. - Adam Smith

    by boatwright on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:16:10 AM PDT

  •  Weren't the repubs supposed to take the Senate in (6+ / 0-)

    2010 and 2012? If they didn't in 2010, why should they now? They have more party infighting now than they did in 2010.

    •  Correct (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sebastianguy99

      Cook is a typical pro-GOP DC Villager who doesn't see the picture outside the Beltway. People are demanding more of a role for government in combating inequality and solving problems, and people have had more than enough when it comes to petty partisan games that define today's GOP .

         Also don't discount the large number of goofy 2010 Guvs that are up for re-election. You don't think a lot of casual voters don't want to take out Scott Walker, Tom Corbett, Rick Scott, Paul Le Page and the rest of those goofballs?

         I set the Senate line at GOP picking up 3 1/2 in November. Anyone wanna bet over, or under. I also still think the House is in play for Dems, given how much non-Beltway America hates the Baggers in DC

      •  Don't turn away (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Greg Dworkin, wishingwell

        from clear-eyed analysis. Even the Elections guys here on Daily KOS don't give Dems more than a 50% chance of holding on in the Senate. It has nothing to do with people's expectations for the role of government or anything like that.

        It's just because Democrats were so wildly successful in 2008; now have to defend far too many Senate seats in red states that definitely didn't vote for Barack Obama in 2012.

        You will not be punished for your anger. You will be punished by your anger.

        by mstep on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 07:14:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  "Cook is a typical pro-GOP DC Villager" (0+ / 0-)

        Really!!! Links?

        New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

        by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 07:47:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That's our strategy? Hope they implode? (1+ / 1-)
      Recommended by:
      mstep
      Hidden by:
      Jake formerly of the LP

      That means we aren't winning on issues.

      New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

      by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:32:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What do we do to increase turnout? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes

    I think the obsession with polling data is destructive, it's turning a possible problem into a certain one, and it's likely to be turning a bad problem into a worse-- no one seems very excited or even interested in 2014, because thinking about it is too hard.

    Every other day the kossack-in-chief tells us "if our people turn out, we will win", but if he has any get-out-the-vote ideas, I haven't seen them.

    It's nice to be able to identify close races, and raise last minute funding for important candidates, but it would also be nice to have some sort of longer game going...

    •  data is never destructive (10+ / 0-)

      it's data. Do with it something good.

      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

      by Greg Dworkin on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:22:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Motivating voters is not easy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Byblis, AlexDrew

      Voters have to want to vote.  I know that sounds silly and simple, but just saying "get out the vote" cannot happen  when you are dealing with an unmotivated electorate.

      What exactly is the motivating force for Dem voters this year?

      Bad economy?  No jobs?  ACA?  What exactly is going to bring Dem voters out?

      And what exactly will bring GOP voters out?

      Bad economy.  
      No jobs.  
      ACA.

      •  Raising minimum wage is one popular issue along (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Phoenix Woman

        with protecting the rights of women, minorities, LGBT as well as environmental issues, and even if people are opposed to some aspects of the ACA, there are some very popular parts of the ACA like no lifetime limits, subsidies to help pay for your policy,  pre existing conditions not a factor anymore and being on your parents policy until age 26.

        College students we do some volunteering with for elections are stressing to their friends some of the good aspects of ACA as well as talking to them about labor issues and mininum wage. Or maybe we have it a bit easier in states where we are doing GOTV to get rid of a Republican governor who is cutting funding from education, promoting cyber education , wants to privatize everything in sight..and so on.

        Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

        by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 08:58:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It is trivial to make a list of a hundred ways (0+ / 0-)

          that Republicans are injuring every single American, and a longer list of ways that they are trying to injure every American. I don't need to tell Kossacks the details. It is every issue that we debate, every issue that gets polled. Most of all, everybody in the US except the ultra-rich is the victim of outright theft by the Too-Big-to-Jail, and assaults on our health, most notably refusing Medicaid expansion.

          Not just the uninsured, but everybody is injured when Emergency Rooms and whole hospitals shut down because of the costs of treating the uninsured. Everybody is put at risk when we cannot treat infectious diseases among the poor, that are then able to spread through the population. Pollution, including Global Warming, injures rich and poor alike.

          And so on.

          The rain it rains upon the just
          And also on the unjust fella.
          But mostly on the just, because
          The unjust stole the just's umbrella.
          Cormac McCarthy

          Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

          by Mokurai on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 11:28:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Motivating armchair analysts is not easy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Phoenix Woman

        GOTVers have to want to knock on doors and make phone calls and register voters.

        I volunteer for several such projects in every cycle. It turns out that the amount of effort required to get one extra voter for your side has been carefully quantified. It is not a problem of motivation of voters. In most cases, it is enough to show them that we care, that their vote matters to us, that their vote is not a drop in the bucket but part of a mighty stream.

        It is a problem of motivation of volunteers.

        What have you volunteered for?

        Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

        by Mokurai on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 11:15:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It is simple. We must replicate a presidential (3+ / 0-)

      election.

      So, what should start happening is that we have to begin picking one person as the standardbearer in a midterm and have that person carry the banner for the entire race. Obviously would have to be a compelling person who is,  or is close to, a president caliber politician.

      We'd like that person to be the current sitting president, but his own party is scared of him because of the polls.

      Otherwise what we have is a just a referendum on the state of the country, and most of our people have better things to do.

    •  Here's an idea to increase turnout. (10+ / 0-)

      There are organizations in every state that work to register voters and then encourage them to get to the polls to vote, including using volunteers to ferry people to the polls.  These volunteer positions are not glamorous and will probably not result in a TV appearance, but they're very effective.  If you want to actually do something (as opposed to letting someone else do the work), spend some time finding these organizations in your state, sign up as a volunteer and then get to work.  

      If Democrats want to win every possible race in November, it's going to take armies of on-the-ground workers to help GOTV efforts be successful.  Pleading ignorance on what you can do, looking for a grand strategy or an easy way to effect turnout will not get the job done.  It's going to take persistence and determination, organization and good ideas to actually get people registered and to the polls to vote.  Democrats can't rely on the easy stuff like ginning up outrage and hatred to spur voting - those are Republican tactics.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:04:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The first thing you do is find existing GOTV (0+ / 0-)

      campaigns and join in. You can start with Battleground Texas, and you can find many more by asking your local Democratic organizations or going online to search.

      Creating them isn't Kos's job. He has enough to do herding cats on this site.

      Come to think of it, we could use a regular GOTV writer here, one who would find the campaigns and tell us how to help out with each one. Did you put your hand up? I'll help.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 11:04:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  "regular GOTV writer" (0+ / 0-)

        "Come to think of it, we could use a regular GOTV writer here"

        There you go.  That's the kind of stuff I'm talking about.

        And yes, maybe I'm the guy, or maybe I'm not, I'm fairly new here and there's probably someone else around whose earned the trust to do it already.

        •  There are lots of writers here (0+ / 0-)

          covering elections from the point of view of choosing candidates, fighting primaries, raising money, and evaluating polling data. There are lots of commenters here talking about how we need GOTV, including me. A few specific GOTV projects get mentioned. I know of nobody covering it as a regular topic. It could be all yours.

          I do GOTV locally and by phone during campaign seasons. I Diary about Marriage Equality, poverty, science, religion, and some other subjects, and I help out on the ACA and some other topics. I can't cover GOTV regularly, which is what it would require. If you want to, you can call on me for research from time to time.

          Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

          by Mokurai on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:19:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Looks to me like the White House has pretty much (0+ / 0-)

    written off Congress by what I've been seeing. Its late 90's Clinton re-do only without the economic boom."Do no harm" but not much in the way of real help. Oh they'll raise some money to help some consultants get richer, but that's about the extent of it.

    The way I see it only Hillary Clinton can win this midterm for Democrats.

  •  Sadly, elections are rarely about the issues (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheDudester, Stude Dude, wonmug

    or specifics of what goes on in terms of policy and politics, or else Dems would be wiping the floor with Repubs after the shutdown, threat to default, cuts to SNAP and calls for cuts to Social Security and other programs, etc.

    Rather, elections are mostly about feelings, identity and image. And even now, after all that's happened over the past 5-20 years, most voters, regardless of who they vote for or whether they vote, see the parties this way:

    Repubs: Strong, tough, stand for something, low taxes, less regulation, small government, national security, freedom.
    Dems: Weak, indecisive, elitist, effete, higher taxes, more regulation, big government, anti-military, weak on national security, for the poor.
    Never mind whether there's truth to any of this. It's the impression that most people still have about each party, and a major part of what makes them decide who to vote for. And Dems have done jack shit to change these impressions, through their words and actions. They're still out of touch. This is still the party of ineffectual millionaires and limousine liberals.

    Sorry, but Tweety's right on this one.

    "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

    by kovie on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:35:51 AM PDT

    •  My question would then be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sherri in TX, reginahny
      Never mind whether there's truth to any of this. It's the impression that most people still have about each party, and a major part of what makes them decide who to vote for
      If Most people feel that about each party, why did Democrats do so well in 2008 and 2012 and how did a Democratic President win a second term very convincingly?

      I actually do not think most people feel that way.. I think there are too many that feel that but I do not think that is the majority of people or majority of voters or we would have a Republican Senate before now and a Republican President.

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:50:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A majority may not strongly feel that way (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stude Dude, wonmug

        But I believe that a majority does believe it enough so that when times are tough or things are not going well for Dems or Repubs are particularly effective at messaging and organizing, it makes the difference. How else to explain 2010 and the fact that Dems aren't likely to do well this year?

        "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

        by kovie on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:08:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Also, rightly or wrongly (0+ / 0-)

        And whether or not a majority of voters consciously believe them, these are the established brand images that each party has at present, that have seeped into our collective unconscious and absolutely affect voting patterns, no different from how company brands affect buying patterns.

        Unless and until Dems do something to change this, nothing will change.

        "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

        by kovie on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:24:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Or maybe all that happened is that Republicans (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chicago Lawyer

          tend to vote in midterms in larger numbers than Democrats.

          I still think our biggest effort and push is to get our new and sporadic Democratic voters to the polls each election.
          We should double down, hell triple down on GOTV.  Massive GOTV, grassroots organizing,  and getting those sporadic voters to the polls.  

          Look at the number of Democrats that the Obama campaign got to the polls...now if we could only get more of these voters who only vote in Presidential elections, to vote in midterms, we would be fine.

          I will still always think it is GOTV efforts and yes, messaging too..but we do need to work our asses off and triple down on organizing and leaving no stone unturned in our phone banking ..to get those voters from 2012 To the Polls this November !!!!

          Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

          by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 08:38:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  We need to get base voters to vote (0+ / 0-)

            We need to get likely Dem voters, e.g. Latinos, minorities, young people, etc., to vote, and vote Dem, on a regular basis.

            And we need to win back a substantial number of swing voters, i.e. Reagan Dems. Demographics are on our side but I hate relying on trends alone.

            GOTV isn't enough. Nor is better messaging. We need better policies, better ideas, better outcomes, and better Dems who can sell them to these people.

            "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

            by kovie on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 01:39:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  That is not what the College Republicans found (2+ / 0-)

      College Republican National Committee Report Has Grim Findings for GOP

      One of the headlines from the study were the words that up-for-grabs young voters used to describe today’s GOP: “closed-minded, racist, rigid, old-fashioned.”
      Buying into Republican framing is one of the silliest things Democrats can do.

      They are the minority party. They are only hanging on by using all of the electoral shenanigans they can think of, including gerrymanders and voter suppression. Step by step they are failing and falling back nationally, and trying to make up for it by getting louder and nastier in the states they still control. Swing states are turning Blue, and lean Red states are starting to swing, with no end in sight.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 11:38:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They continue to dominate the meme wars (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Phoenix Woman

        The media clearly respects them more than they do Dems, as being tougher, stronger and better at politics. Which, frankly, they are. It's not enough for Dems to be the better party. They also have to be the politically smarter, tougher and stronger party--AND better on policy than they are now.

        "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

        by kovie on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 01:41:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats are preemptively losing (7+ / 0-)

    Apologizing, retreating, equivocating - yeah, that's really going to turn out the base. And it's what all the consultants and 'wise' hands are saying to do. Avoid confrontation, go for the mushy middle.

    On the other hand,

    On desperate ground, fight.

    [For, as Chia Lin remarks: "if you fight with all your might, there is a chance of life; where as death is certain if you cling to your corner."]

    For some reason, Democrats refuse to use the weapons Republicans are handing them. There is no shortage of Americans out there whose lives have been devastated by Republican policies, or those who stand to lose even more if the Republicans get another wave - start telling those stories. Unlike the Kochs, you can resort to truth.

    No Mr. President. We can't all "Just get along."

    "No special skill, no standard attitude, no technology, and no organization - no matter how valuable - can safely replace thought itself."

    by xaxnar on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:38:09 AM PDT

    •  It's hard to give total blame the GOP when we have (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      xaxnar

      the White House and the Senate (2/3 of the gov). And remember, they were voted into the House majority in 2010, not appointed. And that was before the gerrymandering.

      Our policies poll well, but it appears those are not the issues that bring our voters to the polls when a personality isn't attached to them.

      New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

      by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:44:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  GOTV is critical (0+ / 0-)

        Democrats are really good at doing that for the presidency, not so much for lesser races - and they're conceding too many parts of the country without a fight.

        Losing in the right way can create the conditions for victory down the road. If nothing else, competing in a nominally long-shot race allows you to try things you might not otherwise because you have nothing to lose. You have the freedom to make mistakes and learn from them.

        Howard Dean's 50 state strategy made a huge difference; winning by trying not to lose gets the usual rewards for timidity. By taking a Democratic message into places where it wouldn't otherwise be heard, Dean forced Republicans to respond, put them on notice, and forced them to commit resources they needed elsewhere.

        The establishment has never forgiven him for shaking up their comfortable existence.

        "No special skill, no standard attitude, no technology, and no organization - no matter how valuable - can safely replace thought itself."

        by xaxnar on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 09:49:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Cook's not the sage he thinks he is (11+ / 0-)

    In January 2006 he said the Democrats had little chance of taking the House and no chance of taking the Senate.

    I think we all remember how that one turned out.

    If I can shoot rabbits, then I can shoot fascists- Manic Street Preachers

    by Liberal Of Limeyland on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 05:46:05 AM PDT

  •  A lot of unknown variables are still out (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    Things like, what Republican Tea Partier will come out and start talking about things like rape, or bringing back prohibition, or some other off-the-wall nutcase idea.

    Then there's will they nominate some of these people again, instead of the seemingly more electable ones.

    Then there's what the national GOP does between now and then (aka government shutdowns, etc).

    And lastly, there's what people think of Obamacare in November. We all know the GOP/Koch bros will be blasting it from the airwaves...But after a year of Obamacare, how does America feel about it? If it's seen publicly as not the toxic mess the right has made it out to be, their attacks will be blunted. Because it seems they're going all or nothing in on Obamacare this year.

  •  You know what will motivate more Democrats (8+ / 0-)

    than anything else?

    A solid minimum wage hike to fight for.  It works best if the Senate passes it first making it clear a Republican House is the only stumbling block.

    The next move?

    Well, I know this is a blast from the past, but do you remember five years ago when nearly all supporters of the Senate version of the ACA were arguing that the House should pass it....since...wait for it....

    We could always fix it later.

    Now, I know we haven't heard much of that lately and the effort among the affluent white dudes of late has been to paper over the holes - but voters will respond to efforts to improve the ACA.

    While it's true we have just about no chance of taking the House this cycle, if we don't pick up seats our odds of taking it in 2016 tank.

  •  Dems and FL-13.....WAKE UP!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheDudester
  •  Pryor Should Use His Being A Christian For (4+ / 0-)

    supporting Obamacare.  He should say it is the Christian thing to do for giving people the chance to have healthcare and he can't apologize for being a Christian.  He says that his faith and Jesus demands that he help people.  I think that with his religious background that people will believe him.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:08:32 AM PDT

  •  Is the "defensive crouch" a prerequisite... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skillet, tb mare

    ...for getting "Big Democratic Money?"

    Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:12:21 AM PDT

  •  The no good terrible morning. Asking advice. (0+ / 0-)

    I try to leave to to work and I can't find my billfold. However, the kitchen door is halfway open and a man-door for the garage is halfway open. I'm thinking that it's probably a lazy burglary because nothing else seems to be missing. What do you think?

    I'm also wondering about replacing the drivers license and the Social Security card. How do you get ID without ID?

    "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

    by Stude Dude on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:16:21 AM PDT

    •  Go to SocialSecurity. Gov and you can apply for (0+ / 0-)

      a new card ,just enter your information.  I lost my social security and requested another be sent and it was fairly easy.

      I am not sure how your state works with duplicate drivers' licenses but in our state, you can also go online and ask for a duplicate.  

      In the case of a duplicate drivers license, so you have something to carry around with you, you should be able to print out something that shows you requested a duplicate drivers license.

      The drivers license should not take long to arrive or at the very least , your will receive a temporary one and need to have another photo taken in 90 days....again it all depends on the state where you reside or where you received your drivers license.

      But if your wallet was stolen and nothing else and you are fairly sure your house or apartment was broken into, I would still file a report with the police about a possible break in. They need to know this so they are aware there has been an attempted robbery or a robbery in your neighborhood. You might want to alert some neighbors so they are extra sure to be sure all doors and windows are locked.

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 09:08:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kay Hagan voted FOR Adegbile's nomination to the (4+ / 0-)

    Justice Department....and on Thursday(?) she belatedly joined the Climate Change Caucus.....'Fraid of Rethugs?....I don't think so.

  •  This cycle will be decided (0+ / 0-)

    On the contraceptive mandate decision and the myriad on voting rights cases pending

    •  The GOP is putting all it bets on The ACA (0+ / 0-)

      That is a total winning strategy or a total loosing strategy According to CNN polling support has gone up from 35 to 39%; a four point lead in two  months. Now if that is a trend, where will the numbers be in April, July August, September. We cannot assume it s going to be as it is now. Remember in January after the Govt shutdown, and  everyone was saying the GOP is "toast". Then came the website debacle. and everything reversed. How is to say it cannot or will not reverse again? To quote Chris Hayes; "We won the ACA". "We cannot run away from it' The good new and the bad new. The good news if we all promote and make it work the GOP is out in the wilderness as they voted to repeal it 50+ times. The bad news is if it continues to flounder, the GOP can say" we told you so" Its a high stakes gamble on their part.

      a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

      by Jamesleo on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:46:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The wind that is blowing is mainly from (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jake formerly of the LP

    Cook and the other blowhards that like to help dismal-ize the Dems into capitulation.

    The other problem is that the nationally prominent Dems  (I'm looking at you Durbin, etc.) are sucking instead of blowing hard in the opposite direction.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 06:53:06 AM PDT

    •  Charlie Cook has been at this for long time (0+ / 0-)

      during Dem and GOP majorities. He is not a partisan hack. Take his analysis and compare it to Dem and Independent strategist.

      New Republic: So are the left-wing blogs as bad as the Tea Party ones in this case? -------------------------Chuck Schumer: Left-wing blogs are the mirror image. They just have less credibility and less clout.

      by AlexDrew on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 07:53:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with your comment however I didn't (0+ / 0-)

        like the way the media used him in the run-up to 2010 to hype the "enthusiasm gap" and lower expectations among Dems which I think to some degree is self-fulfilling prophecy.
        I think he's somewhat biased in favor of the gop, but I'd really like to know what the psychological effect of the polls which tell the voters, "don't bother, the models show the gop is going to win. period. "
        When the national Dems go into "damage control" mode instead of "attacking on all fronts" mode, I think we help to defeat ourselves.

        You can't make this stuff up.

        by David54 on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 11:51:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Mountain Dem Sen's Walsh & Udall think NSA & CIA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jake formerly of the LP

    reining-in can also resonate with voters (Walsh's prominent NSA petition is posted here; Udall's CIA adventures are diaried here).

    If they are right in the Rockies, maybe

    1. Shenna Bellows will be right about the same thing in the traditionally conservative mountain portions of Maine, and

    2. the three of them can send a policy-message as loud as the overall horse-race message.

  •  First I'd heard of the issues with Dr. Murthy (0+ / 0-)

    We have a very very close senate race here in CO and a pedigreed western senator (Udall) who'd probably be just as happy not to make that kind of vote.

    I sure do wish votes on Surgeon General didn't revolve around one's stance on gun control.

    “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

    by ban nock on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 07:00:18 AM PDT

  •  What. The. #%&?! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Apost8, tb mare

    How can this continue to be?  Repubs are widely reviled, mistrusted and continue to piss off people.  Their demographics are rapidly fading.  The public polling indicates they are on the wrong side of almost every issue by huge margins.  And yet they stay in the game?!  Am I getting bad info from this site?  How can any party shoot themselves in the foot over and over and over again and remain not just viable, not just competitive, but be favored?  
    Is it the media working hard to level the field?  Or are all the reports of polling data and Repub ass-hattery on this site wishful thinking and echo chambering?

    Government works when you elect those who want it to. --askyron (2013)

    by Simul Iustus et Peccator on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 07:01:48 AM PDT

    •  I don't get it either. n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare

      "Give to every other human being every right that you claim for yourself." - Robert G. Ingersoll

      by Apost8 on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 07:28:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  With the Senate, a lot of those seats are in red (0+ / 0-)

      red states and some like Arkansas, seem to be getting redder all of the time.
      So a big problem is we have a lot of seats to defend in red states or retiring Democratic Senators , a couple of them in red states.

      The house is a problem because of all the gerrymandering in red and blue states because some of us in blue states have conservatives running the state legislature along with Repub Governors.

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 09:13:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They are a minority in most states (0+ / 0-)

      but a majority of motivated voters in just enough states to throw sand in the gears of elections, and thus of the entire Federal government. Or they will be so long as we do not nuke the filibuster on legislation, the Blue Slip veto on Federal judges, and the gerrymanders. All three are coming.

      However, this is government working largely as designed by the Founders. Slowly and clumsily, so as not to make things too easy for the rascals who get in from time to time. And with incentives for the rascals to turn on each other, as also happens from time to time.

      And then once in a while, when the public really, really means it, we can align the Legislature, the Executive, and the Courts, and really make things happen. As in the New Deal and the Civil Rights Movement.

      Republicans are losing traction steadily. We need between five and ten more points at the polls, either through GOTV or inevitable demographic change, in order to get Progressive measures through on a routine basis. That could happen in 2020 or 2024, because the Right has been shrinking by about 1% of the population annually.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 12:34:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Very Little Sarcasm-A Bit Of Reality (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Apost8

    Third Way/Wall Street/Corp Dems have made it Crystal Clear - They don't like the Dem Wing of the Party.

    Unless and until they start talking with/to us with some genuine seriousness? I'm a tidge worried.

    The GOP fully intends to impeach PBO when they keep/get control of both House and Senate.

    There are SCOTUS appt's that surely Will happen after 2014 mid-terms....More Thomas's, More Alito's. More Roberts. More Scalia's. More Kennedy's.

    The GOP WILL Repeal the ACA and likely pass legislation to End ALL Womens Rights.

    Then there is the Voting Rights Act. The future does Not bode well for "old white males" earning less than a few million a year.

    I don't know what's gonna happen---but I know there are a Hellava Lot of People, who would otherwise be-good solid Dem Votes that are So Pissed and they're Not gonna settle for the "Least bad" Anymore.  That is simply too low a bar-we've bought that bs before...and the "promised change(s)" Never came to fruition. So what Is the point of eating the Squirrel Food they toss our way---again?

  •  Anti-depressant (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jake formerly of the LP

    All this talk about the Dems losing, and the rise of the gop/baggers is depressing...I felt the same way until I watched Jon Stewart...#mcconnelling is over the top...I have been looking at the variations and I have not stopped laughing...McConnelling is FUN...I never tried this before...but if you want a laugh, Mediate has a collection of #mcconnelling videos...I, just so happen to have one...
    http://1drv.ms/...

  •  How bad is November looking? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peregrine kate

    Well, for purely practical reasons, we Democrats need to take the stance that it is looking dire, because based on all available evidence at this moment in time, all of the headwinds seem to favor Republicans.

    What can we do about it? Do everything imaginable to stimulate turnout among those key constituent groups that tend to let up during non-presidential years (youth, urban voters, minority groups and the poor). If we can get any or all of those groups to turn out just five percent better than they did in 2010, Democrats may be able to hold their own this November, and possibly pick up a few House seats and a decent number of governorships.

    Am not sure what the magic “buttons” are to reach those folks exactly, but, it seems to me that if the Democratic Party gets serious about its messaging and reaching these folks, the following are key issues: deliberate efforts by Republicans to disenfranchise voters; economic inequality; the Republicans' secret, hidden agenda (doing the dirty work of the Koch brothers and ALEC); the ongoing Republican war against women, the poor and minorities;  synergy in the states (using the outrageously controversial and radical behavior by Republicans in key states against them (FL, WI, MI, PA, OH, NC); and, the most important thing of all, using all of the above: GOTV (Get-out-the-vote) efforts.

    If the Democratic Party can get its act together, it seems to me that the above would be potent weapons.

  •  gin up the Dem base... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    Always thought that was an oxymoron.

    •  and double down, triple down on GOTV, we need (0+ / 0-)

      to never give up registering new voters, phone banking, making sure our sporadic voters have rides to the polls, commit to voting, remind them, and treat this like it was 2012.

      We need to apply the OFA method used in Presidential elections to the midterms..keep it going...work our asses off

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 09:20:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  grimes needs an office in every county (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jake formerly of the LP

    mcconnell will out raise her,

    but

    ifshe has a local machine, she will win

    •  Exactly having a presence in each country, ground (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      patbahn

      game matters.  Visiting every county and having volunteers in those counties helps a great deal. That is what the Obama campaign did so very well, ground game and organization. I remember how Obama always had more offices in more places ..even smaller towns than any other candidate both for the primary and the general.

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 09:22:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I mean county but speaking of countryside, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        patbahn

        candidates who go to the countryside and rural areas also have a better chance. ..talk to them about issues that affect them personally.

        Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

        by wishingwell on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 09:23:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  She will win....the inbreds in Kentucky hate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      patbahn

      McConnell...they think he has been in office too long....his primary will be closer than you think...

  •  Obamacare debate is playing on their turf.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Patango, Jake formerly of the LP

    Democrats do not need to defend nor even debate Obamacare....this is just a GOP dog whistle.....

    The debate needs to be about who ruined the US economy in 2008, and the unemployment numbers.....

    If the unemployment numbers are around 6% even....
    Dems will hold Louisana and North Carolina...
    I'm afraid Arkansas is gone...those people are famous inbreds....

    Nobody has forgotten who started the economic meltdown....that will counter any Obamacare arguments....

    And I don't know that the people who are responsible for this economic situation should be trusted to fix this economic situation....

    The T-head robots will scream Obamacare millions of times...no real for Democrats to even mention it...they should be too busy talking about the economic crisis and jobs.....

    •  Great point notallthatpolitical (0+ / 0-)

      imo Obama showing some leadership on these NSA/CIA issues would help also , taking a back seat does not make him or the dem party look good as far as " leadership" taking on tuff issues

      Obama and the dems need to go physically walk some wal mart picket lines , 3 speeches on income equality add up to nothing basically , by comparison

      Beer Drinkers & Hell Raisers

      by Patango on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 10:09:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Seriously! (0+ / 0-)

    The biggest problem Democrats face going into November is their own spinelessness.

    Since 1980, they have failed to grasp the essential truth - the only fight you are sure to lose is the one you don't fight.

    Barring a 180 degree reversal from the current fetal crouch mode, 2016 could be worse than 2010 was.

    "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by jg6544 on Sat Mar 15, 2014 at 01:06:44 PM PDT

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