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8:22 AM PT: NM-Gov, -Sen: Woohoo! We finally have a New Mexico poll from PPP! More later.

9:52 AM PT: MI-Sen: If there's one thing Terri Lynn Land has proven she's not good at, it's navigating the shoals of Obamacare. Salon's Brian Beutler describes her latest ship grounding:

Case in point: Terri Lynn Land—Michigan's one-time Republican secretary of state, turned Senate candidate—held a first-ever conference call with reporters to trash the ACA on its fourth birthday. But confronted with the question of what happens to people with preexisting medical conditions if the GOP repeals the law (and thus eliminates the individual mandate)—Land's press aide, Heather Swift, commandeered the call, and tried to take the whole thing off the record.
Yoikes! It doesn't get better after that. Click through for Beutler's full dissection of Land's newest stumble.

10:37 AM PT (Darth Jeff): DC Mayor: What does incumbent Vincent Gray have in common with me when I'm at world 8-4 in Super Mario Bros? We both wish we didn't have to deal with Bowser. In Gray's case, it's because a new Washington Post poll shows him trailing in the April 1 Democratic primary for the first time. Councilor Muriel Bowser leads Hizzoner 30-27, with Councilor Tommy Wells all the way back at 14.

Gray's approval rating is slightly above water at 46-45, but what's more telling is how few voters see Gray as honest. The mayor has spent his entire tenure dogged by allegations he ran an illegal shadow campaign in 2010, and only 26 percent of respondents say he is honest and trustworthy.  

As we've seen in other polls, Bowser has consolidated a good deal of the anti-Gray vote. In the Post's January poll, Gray had a similar 24 percent but Bowser was in a distant second with only 12 percent. The Post notes that Gray still has a path to victory: He has a dedicated core of supporters, and low-turnout can give him a boost. Still, things are not looking good for the incumbent. If he were to ask me for advice on how to beat Bowser at this point I'd advice him to use a cheat code. Then again if you believe Gray's critics, cheating is why he's in this position in the first place.

Even if Gray wins the primary, it looks like he'll have a tough general election fight against independent Councilor David Catania. Both men are tied 41-41; by contrast, Bowser easily defeats Catania 56-23.

10:54 AM PT: NM-Gov, -Sen: Hallelujah! The good folks at Public Policy Polling have at long last decided to survey New Mexico, giving us—if you can believe it—our first-ever poll of the Land of Enchantment all cycle. Even though we'd been flying blind, the results largely conform to our perceptions of where the state's gubernatorial and Senate races stand, though there are definitely some unexpected details.

For starters, Republican Gov. Susana Martinez, who was first elected in 2010, sports a 52-40 job approval rating: certainly good in these difficult economic times, but she's also not wildly popular, as some have imagined. Still, she leads every Democrat, chalking up scores at or near 50 in all cases. Here's how Martinez fares (with her opponents' favorables in parentheses):

• 47-42 vs. Attorney General Gary King (29-35)

• 47-36 vs. former USDA official Lawrence Rael (19-17)

• 48-34 vs. state Sen. Howie Morales (15-19)

• 50-36 vs. state Sen. Linda Lopez (17-23)

• 48-42 vs. businessman Alan Webber (12-19)

As is often the case when a field of challengers largely lacks name recognition, it doesn't really matter whom Martinez is paired against, since she takes a very consistent share of the vote versus all comers. Of course, we don't have any kind of confirmation from any other source, but these numbers suggest she's in strong, but not invincible, shape for re-election, which squares with our rating of Likely Republican for this race.

One thing we do have, though, is an unusually high level of interest among legitimate Democratic contenders who want to take Martinez on. If there's such a thing as "revealed preference" when it comes to elections, it's possible the very existence of this crowd of hopefuls indicates Martinez is weaker than she appears. It's only a hypothesis—after all, ego always plays a big role in politics—but at least the opposite is often true. Take nearby Nevada, for instance, where Democrats couldn't even recruit a can of beans to challenge Gov. Brian Sandoval. That certainly says something about Sandoval's strengths; the inverse could be the case here.

Getting back to those New Mexico Democrats, one aspect where PPP's poll does offer something of a surprise is in the primary. Here's where things stand:

King: 34

Morales: 15

Lopez: 13

Rael: 7

Webber: 5

Undecided: 27
Earlier this month, at the New Mexico Democratic Party's pre-primary convention, delegates gave the most votes to Morales, while relegating King—the only statewide official in the contest—to last place. The vote wasn't of profound importance, but all candidates who took at least 20 percent earned automatic spots on the ballot, meaning that King (and Lopez, who also missed the cutoff) had to petition their way on.

So activists evidently have a different preference than New Mexico Democrats at large, since King has a reasonable lead on Morales at present. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that King is much better-known, but given the number of undecideds and the energy behind his candidacy, Morales could very well challenge the front-runner for the nomination. The primary is June 3.

Meanwhile, in the Senate race, Republicans have little hope of knocking off freshman Democrat Tom Udall. He sports a 52-33 job approval rating, good enough for the top quintile among all senators, according to PPP. Udall beats businessman Allen Weh 53-33 and prosecutor David Clements 55-33. Daily Kos Elections currently rates this race as Safe Democratic.

11:40 AM PT: Spending: Ad tracking firm Kantar Media Intelligence/CMAG has put together a chart comparing spending between the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity and two major Democratic outside groups, the Senate Majority PAC and the House Majority PAC. It's not even close:

Chart comparing ad spending between Americans for Prosperity and the Senate Majority PAC & House Majority PAC
(click for larger)
Of course, this doesn't offer a complete picture of all third-party spending this cycle. But even if you added everything together, Republicans would still have a big edge. The question is whether Democrats will be able to achieve something closer to parity as Election Day draws nearer—and whether the effects of this early assault can be reversed, or if the damage is permanent.

12:07 PM PT: MS-Sen: The NRA typically likes to endorse incumbents over challengers, as long as those incumbents have the kind of voting record they like. After all, an established track record is easier to rely on than a set of questionnaire answers, and it makes sense to cozy up to those in power rather than bet on outsiders. So while state Sen. Chris McDaniel may have all the hallmarks of a conservative true believer who undoubtedly takes a maximalist view of the Second Amendment, it's still no surprise that the rifle association is sticking with veteran Sen. Thad Cochran in the GOP primary.

12:21 PM PT: TX-04: Former U.S. Attorney John Ratcliffe just received endorsements from the Club for Growth and the Madison Project, two conservative groups interested in seeing him unseat Rep. Ralph Hall in the May 27 GOP runoff. There's no word yet on whether either organization intends to actually spend money on Ratcliffe's behalf, but if they do, he has to hope they don't mung it up like the last batch of yahoos who offered their help.

12:36 PM PT: IA-Sen: Is this the kind of remark that just offers some momentary Beltway grist, or the kind that winds up in an attack ad?

"If you help me win this race, you may have someone with your background, your experience, your voice — someone who's been literally fighting tort reform for 30 years in a visible and public way on the Senate Judiciary," [Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley] said. "Or you might have a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school, never practiced law, serving as the next chair of the Senate Judiciary. Because if Democrats lose the majority, Chuck Grassley will be the next chair of the Senate Judiciary."
I guess we'll see. The concern here is that this isn't the only time recently that Braley's gone off-message in a way that suggests he can be a bit out-of-touch: His comments about the horrors of having to wash his own towels at the Capitol Hill gym during the government shutdown weren't exactly well received, either.

12:44 PM PT: CA-33: The California School Employees Association, which represents more than 210,000 school support staff statewide, has endorsed Democratic state Sen. Ted Lieu for Congress.

1:06 PM PT (Darth Jeff): DC Mayor: Marist also released a poll of the Democratic primary, and it paints a very similar picture as the Post's. Bowser leads Gray 28-26 among likely voters, with Wells at 11. With PPP showing Gray and Bowser tied in last Friday's poll, it's very clear that this has turned into a two-person race.

Marist is more optimistic about Gray's chances in a general. He leads Catania 43-37, while Bowser is up 46-26.

1:15 PM PT: CA-17: Former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna, who is trying to unseat Rep. Mike Honda, a fellow Democrat, is airing his first TV ad of the campaign. It's all about not accepting "pay raises" or "special perks," the kind of non-partisan topic Democrats typically try to run on in more conservative areas, not in dark blue districts like this one; however, because of California's top two primary system, there's a big pool of Republican voters up for grabs. Khanna also says he'll "never take money from corporations," but if he's talking about campaign contributions, well, fortunately, corporate donations to candidates are still illegal.

1:28 PM PT: MI-Gov: The RGA is spending a reported $400,000 to air their first ad of the cycle in Michigan, attacking Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer. As rain washes over black and white city streets, an announcer says, "Michigan has seen rainy, gloomy days." He then dings Schauer: "In Congress, he voted for the failed stimulus and a massive energy tax." As a state legislator, the narrator goes on,  Schauer "supported higher taxes 40 times." A random older woman's face then appears on screen, incredulously asking, "Forty times?" Back to the voice-over guy, who says, "The gloom is gone! Michigan's on the way back!" And finally, to the same woman, who now sports a goofy grin as she declares, "The shower is over." Shower... Schauer... GET IT? OH GOD I AM DYING FROM THE LOLZ.

1:31 PM PT: Braley offered a lazy semi-nopology, saying he apologizes "to Sen. Grassley, and anyone I may have offended." Seriously, what is wrong with people who insist on this "if you were offended" crap? Just say you're sorry and be done with it (and act like you mean it). Incidentally, Braley used that same b.s. construction when he made a very unfortunate "Trail of Tears" reference last year.

1:37 PM PT: IA-Sen: Gotta give Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst credit for getting right to the point in her new ad, the first she's run. Says Ernst: "I grew up castrating hogs on an Iowa farm, so when I get to Washington, I'll know how to cut pork!" Yowza! (And yes, there are pigs in this ad.)

1:46 PM PT: MD-Gov: Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown's new ad is on the subject of domestic violence, much like the last spot his chief rival for the Democratic nomination, Attorney General Doug Gansler, recently aired. Brown first mentions his cousin Kathy, whom he "lost at the hands of her estranged boyfriend." He goes on to talk about the state's efforts to combat such violence, such as "taking guns out of the hands of abusers" and "doubl[ing] screenings at hospitals."

2:07 PM PT: HI-Sen: Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz, who faces a primary challenge from Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, is out with his first ad of the race.  Schatz describes his commitment to protecting Social Security, particularly because of his father-in-law, who lives with his family and relies on the program "ever since his eyes gave out, ending his 30 years" running a restaurant.

2:09 PM PT: Actually, the RGA buy in Michigan is closer to $800,000 over two weeks, on both broadcast and cable in Detroit, Flint, and Grand Rapids.

2:23 PM PT: PA-Gov: In his latest ad, Republican Gov. Tom Corbett lectures the same fake audiences that he jawed at in his first spot. Corbett says that during his first campaign in 2010, he "made a promise: less taxes, more jobs." And, insists Corbett, "I've kept that promise." In an especially awkward moment, he even hectors the same dude in a hardware store about his alleged accomplishments.

2:29 PM PT: NC-Sen: Karl Rove's American Crossroads has reserved $1.1 million in airtime in North Carolina, according to The Hill's Cameron Joseph, though their ad is not available yet. Joseph intimates that the spot will boost state House Speaker Thom Tillis, the nominal GOP frontrunner, but Crossroads isn't saying.

2:46 PM PT: FL-Gov: GOP Gov. Rick Scott's newest ad attacks his Democratic rival, ex-Gov. Charlie Crist, for calling Obamacare "great" in a recent interview. The spot also repeats the already-classic lie about the infamous February Congressional Budget Office report, with a title card that reads "Obamacare will drive 2.5 million Americans out of the workforce." In a real bit of chutzpah, that statement (in quotation marks) is attributed directly to the CBO! Of course, the report said nothing of the sort. The size of the buy is reportedly $2 million.

2:54 PM PT: AZ-01: It looks like the GOP establishment has definitely chosen sides in Arizona's 1st District Republican primary, and they're going with state House Speaker Andy Tobin. Two other candidates are vying for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, businessman Gary Kiehne and state Rep. Adam Kwasman, but John Boehner's coming to town this weekend to headline a fundraiser for Tobin. The event will also benefit Air Force vet Martha McSally, who is running in the neighboring 2nd District.

2:57 PM PT: KY-Sen: Haw haw!

3:04 PM PT: NE-Gov: The American Future Fund, another one of those random conservative groups, is airing a new ad attacking state Attorney General Jon Bruning, who is seeking the GOP nomination for Nebraska's open Senate seat. The spot criticizes Bruning as a self-dealer who got rich in office while participating in investment deals involving companies he regulated. AFF is rooting for state Sen. Beau McCoy, whom they've run positive spots for in the past, like this one.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:27:41 AM PDT

  •  CA Using the ACA for Voter Registration (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wadingo

    Via Political Wire, here's an article from the Los Angeles Times. It appears the state had the right intention of using the ACA to bring more people into the process but didn't get anything done until the ACLU and other groups sued.

    Is this sort of thing possible anywhere else, even if there are political obstacles? Probably not, but I figured I'd ask.

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:53:56 AM PDT

    •  All exchanges should at least have links. (0+ / 0-)

      It's part of the motor-voter law. For example, healthcare.gov has a link to register to vote.

      •  I meant, is there any way for Democrats (0+ / 0-)

        in states like, say, North Carolina or Wisconsin to have something similar happen? Or does it require agreement by Republicans or being sued by the ACLU? I admit complete ignorance here, so I am sorry if this is a dumb question.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:59:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Are you talking about sending paper (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, jj32, wadingo

          voter registration cards to people's addresses? I think California has to do that only because they didn't have online links ready when people were signing up - so the exchange was not in compliance with the Motor-Voter law. The federal exchange has these links.  

          •  If it's only that, then nevermind. (0+ / 0-)

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 08:25:45 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Battleground poll (10+ / 0-)

    Generic tied at 43.

    Obama approval 44/53.

    http://www.tarrance.com/...

    Some interesting results on issue questions:

    Republicans have 47-43 advantage on the economy.

    Whether the economy is better/worse/same than 4 years ago: 37/41/20.

    Economic rules favor the rich:  64-34.

    Government should be doing something to reduce economic inequality:  59-38.

    76% do not believe that the generation will be better off economically.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 08:01:10 AM PDT

  •  Which Group Is Most Peeved by the ACA? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    Via Kevin Drum, Patrick Brennan of the National Review says it's the uninsured. Both Drum and Brennan seem to agree a selection effect, where those who once were insured but now how have coverage and are satisfied with it don't count, is a factor. That makes sense to me. If after all of the hubbub, you still didn't have coverage, you'd be pissed, too, no? I'd be. I just wonder how much of this could be solved by people getting covered through Medicaid, among other things, and whether this could be channeled into defeating those who oppose it.

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 08:04:31 AM PDT

  •  NM Sen/Gov PPP (18+ / 0-)

    Udall up 20+.

    Martinez  47  King  42.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 08:04:56 AM PDT

  •  PA-Sen (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, Zornorph, DCCyclone, JBraden, askew

    Every time I get a tin-cup e-mail from Admiral Sestak, I want to hit REPLY and say

    Watch my lips, you greedy beeyotch; 2014 comes before 2016.

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 08:13:11 AM PDT

    •  If I didn't just delete them, (7+ / 0-)

      I'd probably respond with, "Listen, sweetcheeks. Attached is a list of competitive legislative races, state and federal, from around the state. Unless I see you with a clipboard in front of various grocery stores, you won't get a dime from me. Am I being clear?"

      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

      by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 08:15:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What I sent to Sestak: (11+ / 0-)

      Hello Joe,

      One of the easiest ways to get people to loosen the purse strings is to show you are willing to pound the pavement for candidates at all levels. Corbett looks like a goner, but a Republican legislature isn't going to make things easier for whichever Democrat wins the nod. And do I really need to describe why getting the House back for the Democrats is essential? I certainly hope not.

      I'm a frequent visitor to Daily Kos Elections. There are quite a few people who could tell you every single competitive legislative race in PA, at both the federal and state level. I'm not that good, but hey, the site is free. Take some time and poke around. Talk to your campaign staff. Help these guys get elected, and the money will flow like oil in North Dakota.

      Good luck in 2016.

      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

      by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:11:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Impact of Hobby Lobby case on electoral politics (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, TofG

    SCOTUS hears the Hobby Lobby case today.

    First Read notes that a ruling for Hobby Lobby could motivate Dem voters, particularly women. I dont know what impact that has this fall though. But I have wondered about the political impact, of say, 5 male SCOTUS justices ruling against the contraception mandate.

    Not that I want to lose this case, but I think the politics are different than the ACA case in 2012. If Obama's signature domestic legislation had been struck down in an election year, it would have been terrible, and I think he probably would have lost re-election.

    link

    •  They're hearing it today, so we can expect (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, sulthernao, TofG

      a ruling in... September or so? (I always forget exactly how this works.)

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

      by gabjoh on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:20:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Terrible substantively, fantastic electorally (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jorge Harris, uclabruin18, TofG, JGibson

      The key thing to remember is that this is a case about statutory interpretation, not the Constitution. If the contraceptive mandate falls, Congress has the power to write legislation to fix it. Democrats will immediately introduce the necessary legislation to take away employers' power to dictate their employees' prescriptions, and it will run headlong into a Republican filibuster in the Senate and be DOA in the House.

      Democrats can then run as the party that gave you free birth control and paint Republicans as the party that wants to let your boss decide your birth control options. Young women will turn out more strongly than usual for a midterm, and women will be more Democratic than usual. Republican candidates will say something stupid and misogynistic.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 12:57:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't sound good based on today's hearings (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo

      Sounds like the most likely outcome is another 5-4 conservative victory with Kennedy providing the swing vote.  Hooray for corporations disguising themselves as churches...

  •  MI-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold

    Here's the Republican Governors Association ad that will air starting today.  It's a pretty typical negative ad: Mark Schauer is a "politician" (guess what, so is Snyder) who wants to increase taxes.  The parts where the women shows up are a little strange.  Not a good ad.  

    http://www.youtube.com/...

  •  KY-Sen: McConnell sees why you shouldn't hire (10+ / 0-)

    campaign workers who don't understand the gravity of KY basketball: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:38:12 AM PDT

    •  Mitch's campaign put out a web ad (9+ / 0-)

      that shows footage of Duke celebrating a win instead of UK.  They pulled it when it got noticed and Joe Sonka (the blogger/writer who got thrown out of a McConnell press meeting for being a Democrat).

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:45:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What is it with these people and (5+ / 0-)

      not understanding the nature of the teams in their states? I couldn't tell you much about sports, yet I (mostly) know what lines not to cross. You'd think it's not all that damn difficult to learn this stuff considering you've been representing the state for, oh, 30 years, but apparently not.

      Were I ALG's campaign, I'd put out an ad featuring KY basketball. Rub a little salt in the wound and keep the story going a little longer, right?

      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

      by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:54:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I find the sports/politics crossover fascinating (0+ / 0-)

        As my own state has its own sports rivalry: the University of Utah (Utes) against Brigham Young University (Cougars) in football. While we pretend that our teams are important and that we have a serious rivalry (families pretend to be divided over the issue and etc) it doesn't have the political implications that other state sports teams do. You don't lose a city because you support the Utes, nor do you win a city because you're a Cougar fan (besides maybe Provo, where BYU is located). Heck, despite BYU being the "Mormon University" the last 5 or so LDS prophets (who are a part of Utah at this point) all graduated from the University of Utah.

        So the Yankee/Red Sox, the state basketball teams against each other, etc, is boggling to me. I mean, everybody in Utah loves the Jazz, but we don't freak out if a politician confesses they like a different team.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 10:43:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  -Liking- a different team isn't the problem (4+ / 0-)

          I think it only enters gaffe territory when it seems like a politician doesn't know the difference between two rival sports teams, like this Duke/UK business or when Martha Coakley called Kurt Schilling a "Yankees fan". It feeds into an "out of touch" meme.

        •  Keep in mind NYC's current mayor is a Red Sox (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          uclabruin18, bjssp

          fan - voters don't actually care about this stuff except inasmuch as it helps cultivate an overall populist or out of touch image. But it makes for an easy story on the part of the tabloids political media, and so you'll see things like that hyped up a bit more than anyone actually cares about

          "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

          by gabjoh on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 01:23:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's about identity (0+ / 0-)

          BYU has been to the Elite 8 once in my lifetime, they aren't a basketball school.  Kentucky has the highest all-time winning percentage of any NCAA basketball program.  A big part of their identity is as THE basketball university.  It's a bad year if they aren't in the Elite 8.  

          BYU's identity is THE Mormon university in America.
          It'd be a little like somebody running for office in UT talking about the Baptist affiliation of BYU, or confusing BJU with BYU.  Everybody would be saying "what the hay?"

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Wed Mar 26, 2014 at 02:42:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Boston Mayor Menino was the worst (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, bjssp, gabjoh, betelgeux

        For many years it was obvious he just wasn't a sports fan, but time and time again he'd try to give quotes on Boston sports teams that were hilariously bad.  There's entire highlight reels of Menino's flubs on Youtube.

      •  republicans buy sneakers too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BoswellSupporter

        formerly demographicarmageddon

        by bonzo925 on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:11:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I feel like I have to say this every few digests.. (15+ / 0-)

      but McConnell is running one seriously bad campaign.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 10:09:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  LOL yes he is (7+ / 0-)

        For as so called seasoned veteran of the political battles he's making a TON of unforced errors and as a result he's been on the defensive from the very start.  I mean lets highlight some of the stinkers.  

        There was his Rand Paul campaign staffer who said he was holding his nose for McConnell followed by the awful attempt to sweep it under the rug by having the guy hold his nose in a photo with McConnell.

        There was McConnell holding a musket at CPAC to show his manhood off which made him look all the more awkward, especially after ALG had already posted a photo of her shooting.  BTW McConnell's staff tried to attack ALG for that photo and was quickly swatted down for being pathetic and weak when photos of Ronald Reagan shooting without protective glasses showed up.  Oops.

        There was that godawful reel of photos which has been lampooned and even has a whole name coined for the new trend of called 'McConnelling' which is basically putting silly music to his reel of images.  

        There was that horrible web ad that tried to be all hip but instead all it did was introduce us to Allison Lundergan Grimes by repeating ad nauseum 'What rhymes with Allison Lundergan Grimes'

        There is this ad which highlights Duke University for a Kentucky Senate race which is the equivalent of highlighting the New York Yankees in Massachusetts.

         

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 11:10:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  ALG responds on FB: (12+ / 0-)
      In case you missed it - this morning, the McConnell campaign celebrated Duke’s 2010 NCAA Championship win this morning in their newest ad.

      Turns out he's been in Washington so long he can't tell the difference between Kentucky and Duke basketball.

      Pitch perfect!
    •  That's the equivalent... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, JGibson

      ...of being a U.S. Senate candidate in Ohio and using Hail to the Victors (University of Michigan's fight song) in a campaign ad, or being a U.S. Senate candidate in Michigan and using Fight That Team Across the Field (The Ohio State University's fight song) in a campaign ad.

    •  And his off day continues: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      https://twitter.com/...

      It means little, but it does show that his campaign is seemingly really rusty.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 03:07:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You could see this at Fancy Farm (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        where he was uncharacteristically sedate, one of is main talking points being how he fought "nanny state liberals" to give Kentuckians the privilege of fishing upstream of dams.  Um....congrats?  Then there was "What rhymes with Alison Grimes?"  He's trying to be hip and getting media attention, but it doesn't seem to be helping him any.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 03:31:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And it keeps going. UofK issues Mitch a C&D (3+ / 0-)

      for using a player in an ad: http://www.courier-journal.com/...

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 05:48:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-Misc: The botched sting operation (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sulthernao, wadingo, TofG

    I heard an NPR report while driving back to campus yesterday morning that explained why it was scotched.  They said that the 4 legislators (all Philly Dems) were offered gifts in exchange for...voting against the Voter ID bill.  Gift-giving is not illegal in PA unless it changes policy (apparently) and these legislators would have opposed the bill anyway.  It's like offering money to a child if they agree to eat cake on their birthday.  And yet, the Philly DA is upset that A-G Kane shuttered it, destroying his investigative work that proves nothing.  WTF is going on?  Does this reflect badly on Kane or did she make the right call?  This matters because she could run for re-election in 2016 or even for Senate that year and this could hang over her.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:44:32 AM PDT

  •  DC-Mayor (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, PassionateJus, DCCyclone, wadingo

    Muriel Bowser surges, according to the Washington Post poll; she now has 30 to Gray's 27, with one week to go.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:56:17 AM PDT

  •  Surprising Number of Americans Hate Koch Brothers (9+ / 0-)

    It's always been odd that to me that the Democrats never attempted to demonize the leaders of the Republicans in the same way that Republicans tried to turn "Pelosi" into an epithet. Maybe it's because it's easier to slam a San Francisco liberal or something, but still, you'd think they would more often.

    Have they found their guys in the Koch brothers? Possibly so, but you have to wonder if this polling means much of anything. Via Kevin Drum.

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 10:00:32 AM PDT

    •  Because Koch's are private citizens... (0+ / 0-)

      Pelosi is a public official.  Now when they spends gobs and gobs of money they become public entities, but they'll whine about the Democrat party machine targeting poor private citizens and trying to silence them.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:04:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  the bogeyman of the right (0+ / 0-)

      is George Soros probably, or is probably the closest thing to a koch of the left

      formerly demographicarmageddon

      by bonzo925 on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:12:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Quebec election (5+ / 0-)

    In response to falling poll numbers, the Parti Québécois on Sunday came out and said that college students from the rest of Canada, but who are studying in Quebec are committing voter fraud and trying to steal the election.

    This is reminiscent of former Jacques Parizeau's infamous response to the narrow defeat of the Quebec independence referendum in 1995 when he claimed that rich people and minorities won the election for the No side.

    The Parti Québécois is trying to bolster a faltering campaign with a new wedge issue on Quebec identity, accusing Ontarians and other Canadians from outside Quebec of trying to steal the provincial election.

    PQ Leader Pauline Marois went to a sugar shack and left the main campaign spotlight to three of her candidates Sunday. They held a news conference at PQ headquarters to demand an investigation over an influx of voters – frequently young anglophone university students – who are trying to register for the April 7 vote.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 10:19:44 AM PDT

    •  From the end of that polling article (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, Skaje
      There is no margin of error for the poll because it was conducted online, and is therefore considered to be non-probabilistic.
      Apparently this means the sample wasn't random, therefore said poll is... probably not worth the electricity used to transmit the results.

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

      by gabjoh on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 01:10:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Quebec nationalists... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ehstronghold

      ...are about as xenophobic as conservatives here in the U.S.

      •  And they cost support from the NDP and Liberals (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DownstateDemocrat

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 02:31:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The difference being (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DownstateDemocrat

        that the Quebecois were historically marginalized and disadvantaged.  Anglophone attempts to deny that history of oppression remind me of post-racialist claims of conservatives in the U.S.  Identity politics is pretty common here in the U.S. among disadvantaged minorities, even when they are the majority in a given state or county, for much the same understandable reasons.

        Full disclosure: My known Canadian relatives (mostly second cousins) are Anglophone, my paternal grandmother was Canadian (my Dad and aunt have dual citizenship via recent citizenship law changes).  There are vague rumors about Canadien or Metis relatives way-back on my Mum's side.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Wed Mar 26, 2014 at 01:38:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Possibly one of the worst ads (12+ / 0-)

    from a well-funded challenger this year:

    Ro Khanna wants you to know he won't take pay increases and will "live like a normal person."

    That's what $4 million gets you?

    What a terrible useless ad.  I can't imagine this makes anyone want to dump the incumbent for him.

  •  PPP asking where to poll (11+ / 0-)

    Voting open for where we'll poll this weekend, choices are IL, MI, MS, NE, RI, and TX: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

    I'd strongly suggest Michigan given the slew of unreliable pollsters frequenting the state. Illinois is a good second choice. MI has the highly competitive gov race and senate race as well as attorney general and possibly SoS. It would also be good to see the generic legislative ballot and polling on right to work, gay marriage, etc.

  •  has there been any news about fund raising in NM (0+ / 0-)

    lately? An indications that Morales may be a decent candidate?

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 11:41:16 AM PDT

    •  S Martinez leads by a consistent margin (0+ / 0-)

      But also it is necessary to take into account that the Democratic file is divided, and this race is moving more money that it seems.

      Also a Democratic candidate leads in the race for NM-SoS over D Duran (Republican incumbent).

  •  IA-SEN: Ugh, Dumb comment from Braley (8+ / 0-)

    Says if GOP wins the Senate, a farmer from IA will be Judiciary committee chair, talking about Chuck Grassley.  

    His point is that Grassley doesnt have a law degree. Which might be a fair criticism, although it's obviously not a requirement to serve on the committee. Al Franken is on the committee, and he doesnt have a JD.

    link

  •  Ky-HoD (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Jacob1145, KingofSpades

    Over the last few months, six candidates have withdrawn. Seems like the most disappointing withdrawal was Democrat David Harrington who was slated to run against Kenny Imes in HD-05. This race goes to Safe R.

    Barry Webb now is unchallenged in his bid to take on Republican incumbent Jill York.

  •  MA-HD 34: Carl Sciortino resigning next week (11+ / 0-)

    Carl Sciortino, who has held the seat for 9 years and you probably remember for his viral ad during the special election to replace Ed Markey in the US House, is resigning next week to become Executive Director of AIDS Action Committee.

    http://www.boston.com/...

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 01:30:42 PM PDT

  •  IA-SEN: Braley apologizes To Grassley (13+ / 0-)
    In a statement this afternoon, Braley said: “I apologize to Senator Grassley and anyone I may have offended. I respect Senator Grassley and enjoy our working relationship even though we disagree on some issues.

    Braley continued: “But there is a clear choice in this race between Mark Jacobs and my other opponents who support policies that are bad for Iowa farmers, and the work I’ve done hand in hand with Iowa farmers to grow Iowa’s farm economy and create good paying Iowa farm jobs. My parents both grew up on Iowa farms during the Great Depression. It deeply influenced who they are and who I am, and gave me a profound appreciation for what farmers do for the world. One of my grandfathers was a charter member of the Iowa Farm Bureau. I grew up in rural Iowa, doing farm jobs and working a grain elevator. I have tremendous respect for Iowa farmers and appreciate how important they are to our state, and I’m grateful to have the support of hundreds of farmers across Iowa.”

    link.

  •  CO-06: Following Gardner, Coffman also (5+ / 0-)

    disavows personhood measures.

    Coffman supported the CO ballot measure in 08 and 10, when he was in a more conservative district.

    link.

  •  Filing deadlines (5+ / 0-)

    today in Missouri and South Dakota.

    South Dakota has two Democratic candidates for Governor for some reason (Joe Lowe is a former Mayor... in California. Susan Wismer is a State Representative from the NE Corner of the state).

    There's Democrats of varying quality in every Missouri Congressional district, but no Dem candidate for Auditor, which seems like one of those "can't gain anything, might not lose a lot" spots. It'd also be the first time the Ds have left a statewide race uncontested ever.

    The stringent requirements to run for Auditor: Be 30 years old, a resident of Missouri for the last 10 years, a US Citizen for the last 15 years, and pay $200

    Filing ends at 5pm in Missouri.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 02:38:50 PM PDT

    •  random (4+ / 0-)

      not sure which Native American candidate has the more memorable name, South Dakota House 27 candidate Anna Takes The Shield (D-Pine Ridge) or Montana House 15 candidate Eldena Bear Don't Walk (D-Saint Ignatius)

      There's actually a pickup opportunity in SD-HD27, because there's one Dem and one Rep there due to a snafu where the Dems didn't file 2 candidates in 2012. So presumably the Republican representing the district is gonna lose her seat.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 03:00:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  it's 5pm and (5+ / 0-)

      yeah, the MO-Dems didn't find a single person who is 30, a MO resident since 2004, a US Citizen since 1999, and has $200 to spend, to run for that office.

      At least the party exists as a vessel for whoever is running for Governor. Granted those Governor's are essentially goalkeepers because they get blown out in legislative elections.

      So good job good effort guys. Enjoy the statewide office holder with no opponent who will be free to spend money helping his party's legislative candidates

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 03:10:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  How are Dems doing for state leg. candidates? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:05:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        the House recruitment didn't seem terrible and didn't really have anything too glaringly bad in regards to showing up. 134 candidates total for 163 seats, and I think when we take into account the multicandidate primaries in some parts, there's 50ish of the 108 Rs unopposed.

        The Senate, there's 17 seats open with 13 R seats and 9 of the 13 Rs are unopposed.

        So essentially there's not going to be anything exciting going on in MO, and the Rs are probably going to roll again and seal the Vetoproof majority in the House. But at least we're inspired by the message of "we always get clobbered in midterms", eh.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:12:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I hope Dems focus hard (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson

          and try to undo the vetoproof majority.  There was a fair number of races in 2012 that were real close and went GOP.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:16:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  MO campaign finance is nutzo (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            it's been no-limit donations since August 2008, so essentially Rs are free to just pump in hundreds of thousands and beat Ds due to the resource gap.

            So yeah, good luck. Maybe some of the D-friendly donors in Missouri and around the country will notice that they might need to donate some money instead of surrendering the field to the AFP crowd

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:34:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, you blogged tons on that issue. (0+ / 0-)

              Why didn't Ds try to compete in that respect?

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:38:09 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  in the money respect? (0+ / 0-)

                same reason why they have problems committing themselves to consistently compete money-wise on a national level probably?

                The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

                by RBH on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 05:53:41 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Missouri's geography is ridiculously bad for Dems (6+ / 0-)

            I tried drawing a state Senate map for Missouri once, and it's basically impossible to get more than ten or eleven Democratic districts unless you baconmander St. Louis and Kansas City far into rural areas. The main trouble is that outside of the two cities, most of Missouri is relatively uniform, and it's uniform at around 63% Republican, which is basically impossible for Democrats to win now. It's not like the Deep South, where you can cherry-pick some heavily black and Democratic precincts to make a Democratic district; the uniformity extends down to the precinct level, and while there are some comparatively Democratic precincts, they hover around the 50% mark and are small anyway.

            Boone County (Columbia) is slightly Democratic-leaning, but it's too small to constitute a Senate district by itself, so some little rural Republican county gets tacked on to make a district that is overall slightly Republican-leaning. But Boone is growing rapidly enough that maybe by the next census, it can have its own district.

            In Jackson County, Democrats can realistically only get three out of the four districts allocated there, between VRA requirements and the fact that eastern Jackson County actually has a lot of Republican territory. St. Louis County is really polarized between a heavily black and Democratic northeast and red exurbs in the west, so it's easy to make a couple of clean-looking Republican districts within the county.

            I imagine the situation is a little better in the Missouri House of Representatives, since the much smaller districts mean Democrats can scrape off a few in Columbia and a couple from St. Joseph and Springfield (downtown Springfield is surprisingly Democratic). But considering Democrats appear to be at something like a natural 9-25 disadvantage in the Senate (note that although it was 10-24 after 2012, one Democratic seat was eliminated in redistricting and will be gone after 2014, and another one is in severe danger), the few extra pickings Democrats have in the House seem insufficient to push them up to the 1:2 ratio.

            So basically, Missouri's demographic distribution is utterly awful for Democrats. It also makes drawing Missouri maps a stultifying exercise. Part of why I've never tried drawing a state House map for Missouri is that I can't imagine how boring it would be to draw about 90 districts in rural Missouri, none of which have any interesting characteristics, all uniformly Republican. Honestly, Missouri is probably my single least favorite state to work with on DRA because it's so awfully boring unless you allow yourself to baconmander it (one interesting anecdote: it is possible to draw a majority-black congressional district, but it requires a tentacle from St. Louis to Kansas City).

          •  well Missouri is a term limits state (0+ / 0-)

            so it gives the dems a higher ceiling, but lower floor

            formerly demographicarmageddon

            by bonzo925 on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:18:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Democrats had a number of (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, James Allen

          successes statewide in 2012 though. Jason Kander has a truly exciting future in politics, and Koster is, dare I say it, the downright favorite to succeed Jay Nixon. In 2012 Nixon, Koster, and McCaskill all outperformed Romney, and Democrats also held off a strong challenge to reelect Clint Zweifel, who is also a very impressive politician who does well in suburban St. Louis. The only downside was Susan Montee blowing a race against the scandalized and never popular Peter Kinder.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 05:32:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What happened with Montee? (0+ / 0-)

            You'd think with Dems (sans Obama) winning the other state races, she would have beaten the unpopular Kinder.

            Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

            by WisJohn on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 05:57:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  FL-Gov: Ex Scott fundraiser's email released (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    detailing why he thinks the campaign is going in the wrong direction: http://www.miamiherald.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 02:42:08 PM PDT

  •  6th circuit court of appeals rules that stay (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, sapelcovits, sulthernao

    can remain in place while the state appeals the gay marriage ruling.

    So no same sex couples can get married during that time.

    Ruling was a 2-1 split, all 3 judges are George W. Bush appointees, although the dissenter, Helene White, was originally nominated by Bill Clinton, and it looks like Levin and Stabenow got her confirmed in 2007 as part of a deal with the Bush WH.

    link.

    •  is the 6th Circuit overall (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      not looking very good for us?

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:25:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Seems like a pretty conservative court (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, sulthernao, HoosierD42

        Of active judges, 8 Bush 43 appointees, 3 Clinton, 2 Obama, 1 each for Reagan and Bush 41.

        Then again, a Reagan district court ruled in favor of marriage equality so who knows.

      •  Bush appointed 8 of the 15 active justices (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, sulthernao

        The overall composition is currently 10-5 Republican appointees with one vacancy (a Carter appointment).  No nomination yet.

      •  I can't recall which exactly (0+ / 0-)

        But I read not too long ago that while Dems have the 9th Circuit as the most overwhelmingly liberal Court of Appeals, Republicans had the 6th. It might have also been the 5th, which is also G.W. Bush-heavy.

        26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

        by HoosierD42 on Wed Mar 26, 2014 at 01:00:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've also heard (0+ / 0-)

          that whichever court covers Texas (4th?) is conservative. speaking of which, have the panels for Kitchen v. Herbert and Bishop v. Oklahoma in the 10th Circuit been decided already?

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Wed Mar 26, 2014 at 01:22:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Texas is in the 5th circuit (0+ / 0-)

            The 5th circuit has 10 Republican appointees, 4 Democratic appointees, and 3 vacancies; the vacancies are hardest to fill for this circuit because it covers Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, which have some truly abysmal Senators. Its senior judges are 5-3 R-D. The 4th circuit covers MD, VA, WV, NC, and SC. In the past couple of decades, it was known as an extremely conservative bastion in the judiciary, but now it has 8 Democratic appointees (including 5 by Obama), 5 Republican appointees, and one joint appointee (because it happened during the Clinton-Bush transition). Senior judges are tied at 2-2 D-R.

  •  God, that gaffe by Rep. Braley is awful (8+ / 0-)

    He's gussied up for an out-of-state, white-tie event speaking to a bunch of trial lawyers, boasting about his opposition to tort reform, attacking his state's popular senior senator, and making a dig that sounds a lot like he's trash-talking Iowa farmers (a huge constituency!) behind their backs. The optics of this couldn't be much worse if he were standing in front of a Hamas flag. And it slots into a narrative of Braley being a wealthy, out-of-touch Washington politician, thanks to his dumb gaffes last year.

    I've talked about sleeper races where Democrats aren't really expected to seriously compete, but I think there's the potential for a close race or upset. But Iowa is a sleeper race for the Republicans -- especially if Braley keeps shoving his foot down his throat.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 03:47:17 PM PDT

    •  The numbers I've seen peg the % of farmers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp

      In Iowa at little more than 5% of persons employed in the state.  Does this really qualify as a "huge constituency"?  And I'd assume that demographic is heavily GOP anyway.  

    •  He really needs to get his act together (9+ / 0-)

      Sure, Iowa isn't as blue as Massachusetts, but Braley really needs to avoid being the next Martha Coakley.

      He's got no primary opposition, he has massive fundraising, and his opponents are piss poor (in terms of fundraising, and in stature).

      This is a race he should be walking, but I feel his complacency is getting to him.

    •  You're overreacting, SaoMagnifico (11+ / 0-)

      I'm against belittling the significance of this gaffe, but I'm equally against inflating it.

      It's premature to think this will matter.  Critically, Braley apologized the same day.  Now he also must stay humble on this.  For the time being this doesn't fit any existing attack storyline that the GOP has been using.  They'll try to create one around it, maybe.  But they're hamstrung by not yet having a nominee to wage a general election attack on Braley.  The superpacs can get in there and attack, but their effective work against Democrats so far has been on Obamacare, and these types of personal attacks have failed to resonate when they tried them in 2012 against Democratic Senate candidates.

      The truth is most gaffes fade and become irrelevant.  Voters don't care.  They tend to accept that politicians say dumb things, and ironically their cynicism desensitizes them......"they're all crooks" or "none of them cares about us" is a routine attitude.

      I read today some journo tweet that this can help the GOP with turnout, something to wave around to rally their voting troops, but I don't know how much of a turnout bump you get from something like this......I suspect little or nothing.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 05:03:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I thought you're a doom troll? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, bjssp, SaoMagnifico
      •  It's not that I think the gaffe dooms him... (0+ / 0-)

        By any means. But if it's indicative of the campaign he's going to run, it's seriously problematic. And if we think Republicans won't be trumpeting this clip, and the terrible, terrible optics therein, until Election Day -- we are kidding ourselves, seriously.

        We have two saving graces here. One is that we start out with a solid advantage in this race, which a single gaffe (however bad) by Rep. Braley is unlikely to surrender. The other is that this gaffe doesn't really translate outside of this specific Senate race, so any analysis that it will be a boon to Republicans nationwide is premature at best and ridiculous at worst.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 11:42:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think you're patronizing Iowa voters a bit (0+ / 0-)

      Stupid comment of course, but Iowans aren't a bunch of hayseeds who get their overalls out of joint whenever someone jokes about farmers. The vast majority have nothing to do with farming and wouldn't know a corn plant from a soy bean. Braley comes from a farming family and that is very well known. It won't cost him very much, and if the race becomes about who can pander to farmers better, he's got a huge (and real, unlike this March gaffe) ace in the hole: The farm bill.

    •  What were Braley's dumb gaffe's last year? (0+ / 0-)

      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

      by bjssp on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:32:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE-Gov: Bruning just can't catch a break. (0+ / 0-)

    He went from being the favorite by far in the 2012 Senate primary and lost it all, now he's being dragged down here as well.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:09:15 PM PDT

  •  Chuck Grassley's popularity (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zornorph, ehstronghold, sulthernao

    In his 5 elections since 1980, when he lost 11 counties in his first Senate win, Senator Grassley has lost a total of two counties (once each). He lost Johnson County (Iowa City) in 2010 and Wapello County in 1986, both by a hair. Grassley is definitely more popular than even Governor Terry Branstad, who's in his 5th term as governor (he served from '82-'98 before this term). Grassley is undoubtedly the most popular Republican in the state.

    From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

    by IllinoyedR on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 04:24:13 PM PDT

  •  NC-01: GK Butterfield on Colbert Report (6+ / 0-)

    http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/...

    Funny, but they botched the drawing of the district.  It looks like a hybrid of the old 1st and the new 1st.

  •  you probably don't recall this map that I posted (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, Skaje, KingofSpades

    probably last fall, which I drew with the thinking behind it being that some entity drew it with the intention of focusing mostly on communities of interest and without consider county boundaries to be more important than those or city boundaries. I finally got the 2012 presidential results for the map, roughly.

     photo commissionmap5_zps9ec7d732.png

    The 1st district is the west side of the Portland metro area. It takes in the Washington County suburbs, Scappoose and St. Helens in Columbia County, the suburbs west of the Willamette in Clackamas County plus Oregon City, and Multnomah County west of the Willamette. It comes out to over 62% Obama, or better than D+10.

    The 2nd district is most of Eastern Oregon and Southern Oregon, but not the counties on the coast. It's much like the current one but with all of Josephine County and none of Hood River county, and also loses Warm Springs Reservation, the area in Jefferson County just south of there, and the western edge of Deschutes County, basically losing much of the Cascade Mountain range precincts. It comes out to about 40.5% Obama, or more than R+11.

    The 3rd district is the east side of the Portland metro area, with Multnomah east of the Willamette River, and the Clackamas County suburbs and cities east of it too, extending from Milwaukie to Gladstone to Sandy. It's about 73.6% Obama, or a little under D+22.

    The 4th district takes in every county on the coast (minus a little bit of Lane County around Coburg and Junction City), the rest of Columbia County, some western edge precincts in Benton, Polk, Yamhill, Wasco, Jefferson, and Deschutes counties, as well as the eastern sides of Linn, Marion, and Clackamas counties to pick up more forested mountainous areas that characterize this district. This district could take in even more if it could, but population limitations stopped it, but basically this is areas where forestry used to be king, and many where its still important. There's a lot of orchards in much of the districts as well, and food manufacturing, and less traditional agriculture, which mostly was put into CD-05. It has much of both of the main mountain ranges in western Oregon, the coastal range and the Cascade range. Despite losing most of heavily Democratic Benton County, the district is still about D+2 at 53.7% Obama, and perhaps is more durable due to not depending on student turnout at OSU.

    The 5th district is the rural Willamette Valley and valley cities, mostly in the flat plains and only a bit of the forested mountains where it was necessary for to get the population, and where I found it most fitting. This is the district in western Oregon with the most agriculture. It includes western Linn, Marion, Washington, and southwestern Clackamas counties, the northern edge of Lane County, as well as most of Benton, Polk, and Yamhill counties aside from a few western precincts. This district comes out to about 48.8% Obama, or about R+3. Kurt Schrader may be able to cling for dear life here (his base around Canby is still here), but few Democrats could.

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 06:00:25 PM PDT

    •  One would think Schrader would do all right (0+ / 0-)

      in any environment other than 2010 given his past performances. Are those parts of the Cascades in the 4th even linked up to each other, specifically Hood River? Seems odd that a communities of interest map would have the district span from there down to the California border on the coast. Have you tried drawing this map but with a little more regard to county integrity?

      Anyway I'd like to have the .drf and election data on that if you don't mind emailing it to me.

      •  yes, I made sure everything was connected (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        by roads. There's a highway from northeastern Clackamas County that goes to Hood River, and another that goes to Wasco County; there are state highways that go up through the eastern parts of Clackamas, Marion, and Linn, and highways that connect from Linn over to Jefferson County, and from Lane into Deschutes.

        If you want the data maybe I should wait until I have the 2012 congressional vote for the districts done. I'm sure Dems won the 4th strongly and certainly the 5th, but I don't know how by much.

        "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

        by James Allen on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 06:50:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No rush. I'm eventually going to redo my (0+ / 0-)

          diary on how 2012 would've gone with California-style maps with major updates and Oregon was a state that definitely needs changes, but I still have others I'd like to resolve issues with anyway. I would eventually like to largely use whatever you've drawn since you obviously know a lot more about the state than I do. I think I had a couple of maps where I collected 2012 pres, house, and statewide data for just a handful of precincts in a few counties and it's a pain.

          How much would this map change if you made it so that Yamhill, Benton, Polk, Deschutes, Jefferson, and Wasco were kept whole like a commission probably would?

          •  the divisions in Polk and Yamhill are where the (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf

            legislative district based in Lincoln County goes into them, where the coast range goes into them, so I think they're more realistic than a lot of the other county splits.

            I can only find one cleaner map I've done like this but my internet is working so badly (and has been the last couple weeks) I can't load up DRA and can barely get photobucket working. I'll see about it.

            "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

            by James Allen on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:37:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  btw, that OR-05 went 53.9% Dem (0+ / 0-)

            in the congressional vote. OR-04 went 59.8% Dem.

            "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

            by James Allen on Wed Mar 26, 2014 at 11:38:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  MI Gov: MI Dems accuse Snyder of helping cousin (8+ / 0-)

    Surprised this didn't make the digest, since it's pretty serious and made it onto Politico, this morning.  Anyway, I'm not sure if it's a game-changer, but it's definitely something that could rise to scandal territory:

    Michigan Dems accuse Snyder aides of helping cousin avoid state budget ax

    by Chad Livengood / The Detroit News

    March 25, 2014

    Lansing — Gov. Rick Snyder’s administration pushed back Tuesday at allegations by Michigan Democrats that aides shielded the governor’s cousin’s furniture company from state budget cuts in 2011.

    The Michigan Democratic Party — citing a batch of newly unearthed emails from 2011 — raised new questions about the work of Snyder aide Richard Baird, who until October had been getting paid by the governor’s secretive non-profit group, the New Energy to Reinvent and Diversify (NERD) Fund.

    The records, obtained by Democrats through a Freedom of Information Act request, show the Republican governor’s cousin, George Snyder, sought Baird’s advice on how to get the Legislature to keep in place a contract for new furniture that benefited his company. George Snyder’s DBI Business Interiors installs new furniture for Holland-based Haworth Inc. as a subcontractor.

    “We are very upset and nervous about the language in the Senate budget bill on furniture, any advise (sic) on who I can discuss this with,” George Snyder wrote to Baird in an April 29, 2011 email.

    Baird replied 17 minutes later: “John Nixon’s people are on this. Sit tight.”

    About an hour later, then-State Budget Director Nixon sent Baird an email reply saying, “We are on it.”

    Ruh roh!  

    Really, this just further feeds into the perception of Snyder as being out-of-touch and caring about businesses over the general welfare of the state.

  •  IA-Sen: fun Twitter exchange for me tonight (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, KingofSpades, Audrid, sulthernao

    I've been bantering on Twitter tonight with Dave Kochel, an Iowa GOP adviser who I knew and worked with as a volunteer on the ISU campus College Republicans for Bob Dole's 1988 Presidential campaign......yes, in case you haven't seen my past random autobiographical remarks here, I was once, briefly, a Republican.

    Kochel is prominent in Iowa GOP circles these days and made himself a bit of a political celebrity by being Romney's top adviser in the state in 2011-12.

    We've been going back-and-forth tonight on Twitter,, he's giddy as a schoolboy who just got his first bicycle for Christmas.  He seems convinced Braley just handed the GOP a major gift that will keep on giving.  I've been arguing to the contrary.  He hasn't really established a rationale IMO why this will stick long-term.  Kochel is a Joni Ernst supporter in the GOP primary.

    Our exchange has been mostly earnest but also devolved into juvenile snark, which is more fun than earnest debate so I'm happy.

    I have the same handle on Twitter as here, DCCyclone, check it out if interested.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 06:28:13 PM PDT

    •  Wow, does he remember you? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:37:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Didn't seem to early on, but maybe later (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, sulthernao, WisJohn

        We exchanged tweets very soon after I first followed him, in the 2012 cycle.  He asked if I really went to Iowa State (which of course he knew he did), and I said yes and told him we actually volunteered together in '88 for Dole.  I have no idea if he ever remembered me......maybe, I was the only Indian guy in his circle for that campaign and we spent quite a bit of time doing volunteer stuff in that relatively small circle of regulars.

        He's a nice guy, an establishmentarian all the way, and occasionally departs from the conservative line......he publicly announced his support for gay marriage last year (Dave is straight, married, with kids who appear to be much older than mine).  And he has tweeted out criticisms of a few extremist tea party types, by name, in the GOP.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 08:11:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  More on...er..."Farmergate?"...... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sulthernao

          OK, enough with the "gate" crap......most overused thing in politics.

          I can tell tonight on Twitter the Iowa GOP with some help from out-of-state friends are putting the full-court press to sell the Braley gaffe as a 47%-sized disaster for him.  A lot of well-known GOP operatives are pushing it hard.

          It's actually well-done, as these things go.  I compare their effort favorably to the better Democratic efforts on this type of thing, "rapid response" or in this case "rapid attack."

          But hard to see this story lasting.  They are going to have to spend money to really build a foundation off this, and still iffy whether voters will even care.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 08:19:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  ME-Sen: King vs Collins (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, ChadmanFL, sulthernao

    Hypothetical matchup time. Who wins: Angus King, uber popular former governor, current senator, and all-round independent; or Susan Collins, uber popular current senator and semi-moderate?

    I'm just trying to envision a way to tear down the Unstoppable Collins, and I'm not seeing a way that it can happen. There are a lot of races out there where sleeper candidates jumped up and bit popular incumbents, but it usually takes a wave (i.e. Lincoln Chafee or Gene Taylor). Plus, again, Collins is stupidly popular. Who the hell gets 60% approval these days, I mean seriously.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

    by Le Champignon on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:01:49 PM PDT

  •  somewhat elections related: committee chairmen (0+ / 0-)

    I'm not an actuary, but here is my guess of who the committee chairmen will be when the dems next regain the house. The committee rosters can be found on wikipedia

    Ag Tim Walz
    Appropriations Chaka Fattah
    Armed Services Adam Smith
    Ed and Labor Bobby Scott
    Energy and Commerce Frank Pallone
    Financial Services Nydia Velazquez
    Foreign Affairs Eliot Engel
    Homeland Security Benny Thompson
    Judiciary Jerrold Nadler
    Natural Resources Jim Costa
    Oversight Elijah Cummings
    Rules Jim McGovern
    Science Zoe Lofgren
    Small Business Kurt Schrader
    Transportation and Infrastructure Peter DeFazio
    Veterans Affairs Mark Takano
    Ways and Means Richard Neal

    agree/disagree on any of these?

    formerly demographicarmageddon

    by bonzo925 on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 07:38:08 PM PDT

  •  Some positive news for Dems (6+ / 0-)

    in the generic ballot.

    RCP shows Dems with a 1.7 avg lead in the GCB. They lead in 4 of the 6 polls in the average, and are tied in the others(Today's GWU/Battleground and CBS poll).

    The trendlines are mostly positive. GOP was leading by 2 in the Jan GWU poll, now it's tied. GOP also led in Jan polls for PPP, ABC/WaPo, and FOX and Dems have the lead in the current polls from those pollsters. Today's CBS poll has a tie, a previous CBS/NY Times poll had the GOP by 3, but I'm not sure we can compare those two polls.

    Good news is relative, we wont win back the House obviously. But it does seem to counter the GOP wave narrative we've heard, especially post FL-13.

    link.

  •  ESPN picked up on McConnell campaign stupidity (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, JBraden

    Even the front page of ESPN.com has a story on the idiocy that is the McConnell Senate campaign.

    http://espn.go.com/...

    Senator's ad mistakes Duke for UK

    Sen. Mitch McConnell's latest campaign video hit all the necessary Kentucky high points: horse racing, bluegrass -- and Duke basketball?

    The campaign scrambled Tuesday to remove an online video that featured a split-second clip of Duke basketball players celebrating their 2010 national championship.

    The mistake comes as the basketball-crazy state of Kentucky prepares for its biggest game of the season. Eighth-seeded Kentucky and fourth-seeded Louisville face off in the Sweet 16 on Friday night in Indianapolis.

    "The ad was intended to highlight Kentucky's basketball dominance and obviously the Web ad vendor has become so accustomed to watching national championship celebrations in the Bluegrass State that they made a mistake with one of the images," said McConnell spokeswoman Allison Moore, a Kentucky graduate. "Obviously we were horrified by the error and quickly changed it."

    Duke's narrow win over Kentucky in a 1992 regional final, won on Christian Laettner's improbable last-second shot, remains a sore spot for many Wildcats fans, and Duke is still a frequent target for their animosity.

    "Although the use of the student-athlete's image in the advertisement is not permissible, because it was done without the knowledge or permission of the university or the student-athlete, it is not an NCAA violation," the UK athletic department said in a statement Tuesday evening, after consulting with the NCAA about the image.

    "The University of Kentucky has sent a cease and desist letter and will continue to take appropriate measures to ensure improper usage of a student-athlete's name, image or likeness is prevented."

    The McConnell campaign said the video was taken down as soon as questions were raised about the NCAA images.

    •  Yeah, as I said above (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, JBraden

      an innocuous web ad turned into a major case of heartburn for his campaign.  First, they mistakenly glorify Duke in a state very proud of its basketball teams then they put out a revised web ad that gets a C&D.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Mar 25, 2014 at 09:59:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Something that probably no one other than me... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    will find interesting, but this made me laugh.

    On the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water and Power, every single Democratic member is from California.

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Mar 26, 2014 at 01:13:22 AM PDT

  •  WATN (0+ / 0-)

    Bobby Big Wheel, who used to post on here pretty often, has a tweet quoted in this BuzzFeed piece: http://www.buzzfeed.com/...

    Hope he's doing well.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Mar 26, 2014 at 01:33:10 AM PDT

  •  Total ACA Repeal Polls At Only 29 Percent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    Via the wonderful LOLGOP Twitter, I saw this. It's worth it to highlight the four bulleted points individually:

    – Views of the ACA remain unfavorable, but the gap is narrowing. The new poll finds that in March, 38 percent viewed the law favorably, versus 46 percent who saw it unfavorably. That’s a substantial narrowing from the 34-50 spread during the dark days of January, and a return almost to where opinion was in September (39-43), before the rollout disaster began.
    – Support for repeal continues to shrink. Only 18 percent want to repeal the law and not replace it, while all of 11 percent want to repeal and replace it with a GOP alternative — a grand total of 29 percent. Meanwhile, 49 percent want to keep the law and improve it, and another 10 percent want to keep it as is — a total of 59 percent.

    Among indys, that keep/improve versus repeal/replace spread is 52-31. Republicans are all alone here, with their spread at 31-58.

    That overall keep-versus-repeal spread has improved for the law since February (when it was 56-31), and even more so since December and October, suggesting a clear trend.

    Crucially, a majority, 53 percent, say they are tired about hearing about the law and want to move on to other issues. [emphasis mine] Only 42 percent think the Obamacare debate should continue. A majority of independents has had enough  (51-45). Even 47 percent of Republicans are done with it.
    – Most of the ACA’s individual provisions are wildly popular. Virtually every one of them — the Medicaid expansion; the preexisting conditions piece; subsidies for low income people’s coverage – has overwhelming majority support, and all of those are even backed by a majority of Republicans. The big exception: The individual mandate. (Caveat: This is only one poll. But the numbers on repeal and the individual provisions are similar to other poll findings.)

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Wed Mar 26, 2014 at 09:13:37 AM PDT

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