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8:54 AM PT: Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso recaps Tuesday's action, and there's something very unexpected in the results:

Alabama HD-53: Democrat Anthony "Alann" Johnson defeated Republican Willie "W.A." Casey by a 68-32 margin.

Massachusetts Senate, 5th Middlesex: Democrat Jason Lewis defeated Republican Monica Medeiros by a 53-47 margin.

Massachusetts House, 4th Hampden: This was the only seat that switched parties last night. Democrat John Velis defeated Republican Dan Allie by a 53-47 margin.

Massachusetts House, 16th Suffolk: Democrat Roselee Vincent easily defeated Republican Todd Taylor, winning by a 68-32 margin.

Check out that 4th Hampden House seat in Massachusetts—Democrats managed to pick it up, even though it only went 52-46 for Barack Obama. It's also been GOP-held turf for since 1979, so this is exactly the sort of district you would not expect Democrats to perform well in in a special election. But like they say about baseball, this is why they play the games.

10:15 AM PT: GA-Gov: A new poll from Landmark Communications and Rosetta Stone Communications, taken on behalf of Channel 2 Action News, finds Republican Gov. Nathan Deal with just a 43-39 edge on his Democratic challenger, state Sen. Jason Carter. That's very similar to the HuffPo Pollster average of 41-38 in favor of Deal, though there's no word on the field dates or sample size.

10:20 AM PT (Darth Jeff): DC Mayor: On Tuesday, Democratic primary voters went to the polls and the results were not good for Mayor Vincent Gray. The incumbent lost to Councilmember Muriel Bowser 44-32, a result much wider than the polls predicted in the last week of the campaign. Bowser will enter the November general election as the overwhelming favorite against independent Councilmember David Catania. Had the scandal-tarred Gray emerged as the nominee Catania could have made things interesting, but he faces a very uphill climb against Bowser in this Democratic city.

Bowser's victory was by no means inevitable. When the primary began she was one of several Gray challengers. A mid-January poll showed Bowser battling several other candidates for second place, with Gray clearly in front. Had Bowser not stood out from the rest of Gray's opponents, it is very likely that the anti-Gray vote would have been split enough to allow the mayor to win with a plurality. However, over time Bowser emerged as Gray's most prominent challenger and she began consolidating votes. On Tuesday Bowser won more than enough of the anti-Gray vote to deny the incumbent the plurality win he needed.

While both Bowser and Gray are African Americans, voting largely broke down along racial lines. This map by Matthew Isbell demonstrates how Bowser carried most of the city's white precincts, while Gray won many of the city's African American areas. As Isbell notes, there was a similar pattern in 2010's Democratic primary when Gray unseated Adrian Fenty (who is also African American). However, Bowser did better in predominantly African American areas than Fenty, which made all the difference on Tuesday.

10:45 AM PT: Here's a better link on that GA-Gov poll, with full data.

10:54 AM PT: Waukesha County, WI: Maybe this will finally put an end to all the Kathy Nickolaus jokes: Everyone's favorite former election clerk got absolutely pasted Tuesday night in a comeback bid for Waukesha County supervisor, losing to incumbent Dave Zimmerman by a 65-35 margin. And no, the vote tallies haven't changed today.

11:13 AM PT: NC-Sen: SurveyUSA has released their first poll of the general election for North Carolina's Senate race, on behalf of a local media outlet (their typical sort of client). The firm finds Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan trailing all comers:

• 45-46 vs. state House Speaker Thom Tillis

• 45-47 vs. physician Greg Brannon

• 44-46 vs. nurse practitioner Heather Grant

• 44-46 vs. former Shelby Mayor Ted Alexander

• 43-47 vs. Baptist pastor Mark Harris

These margins are all a bit worse for Hagan than they were in PPP's last poll, where she had small leads or tied most of these candidates. Her job approval rating is also a pretty crummy 38-50, but scarcely a week earlier, SUSA gave her a 34-54 score! Needless to say, Hagan's approvals didn't suddenly bounce up 8 points in just a few days, so this should simply serve as a reminder of just how wobbly SurveyUSA can be.

Meanwhile, the GOP primary is as unclear as ever, with Tillis leading Brannon 23-15 and Harris the only other person in double figures at 11. In that previous poll, though, Tillis was up 28-15, with Grant at 11 and Harris at just 6. So there's another lesson here: It's hard to get a consistent read on primaries where candidates have low name recognition.

11:25 AM PT: NH-Sen: So Scott Brown says he's making his "exploratory" Senate bid official next week. You know, whatever.

11:34 AM PT: NE-02: Jesus. Seriously?

12:25 PM PT: NJ-12: Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman has released an internal poll of the Democratic primary for retiring Rep. Rush Holt's seat, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang. The survey finds her neck-and-neck with state Sen. Linda Greenstein, who sports a narrow 29-28 lead, while Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula earns just 7 percent of the vote and 38 percent are undecided. That compares to a 30-20 advantage for Greenstein in a month-old poll taken by Global Strategy Group for her own campaign. (Chivukula was at 7 in that poll as well.)

12:50 PM PT: AZ-07: Writing in the Arizona Republic, Elvia Diaz offers some good local color on the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Ed Pastor. Diaz explains that five powerful families, including Pastor's have dominated Latino politics in the area for years, but they largely remained united behind the incumbent during his two-decade-long tenure.

With Pastor now departing the scene, though, there's a clash brewing between these various factions, which are dividing their loyalties between the three Democrats in the race: Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox, ex-state Rep. Ruben Gallego, and state Sen. Steve Gallardo. You may be surprised, just based on her surname, to learn that Wilcox is Hispanic, but indeed she is, and she recently earned Pastor's endorsement. So, it turns out, is Phoenix City Councilman Michael Nowakowski, a scion of one of the five big political families who's given his support to Gallego.

One thing is for sure, though: Unless another big name gets in, this seat will remain in Latino hands, as all three candidates in this dark blue district are of Mexican-American descent.

12:53 PM PT (Darth Jeff): President-by-LD: Stephen Wolf has another set of interactive maps visualizing the results of the 2012 presidential result by state legislative seat. This time he hits Ohio, New Hampshire, and Wyoming. For a look at another 11 states (including California, Colorado, and New York), see his previous diary here.

2:12 PM PT: MI-Gov, -Sen: A new poll from the Marketing Resource Group finds Republican Gov. Rick Snyder leading Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer 47-39, which is down from Snyder's 50-36 advantage in October. In the Senate race, Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land edges Democratic Rep. Gary Peters 40-38, all but unchanged from last time, when Land was up 40-39.

2:14 PM PT: MI-08: It's back to the underworld for Saul Anuzis, the jackal god of the afterlife. The former state GOP chair says he won't run for retiring Rep. Mike Rogers' seat in Congress.

2:41 PM PT: AK-Sen: A goofy ad from yet another Koch front group, this one called the American Energy Alliance, tries to claim that Democratic Sen. Mark Begich supports a "carbon tax" in D.C. but tells voters he opposes it at home. The size of the buy is a considerable (for Alaska) $526,000.

2:47 PM PT: CA-07: Republican ex-Rep. Doug Ose, who faces more conservative challengers on his right flank in his bid to unseat freshman Democrat Ami Bera, is trying to shore up his credentials with his first ad of the race. Using the increasingly common shtick of "dude drives around in his car while occasionally stealing glances at the cameraman in his front seat," Ose declares: "We need to get out of debt. Debt is an anchor that will drown us." That's such a weird metaphor, though. Anchors don't cause you to drown.

2:53 PM PT: WV-03: The Koch-backed American Energy Alliance is also running a new spot attacking Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall over carbon taxes, too. Rahall, says the narrator, "voted for a budget that includes a devastating carbon, which would kill coal and destroy West Virginia jobs. A budget so extreme, even Nancy Pelosi opposed it." The vote in question was for the Progressive Caucus' alternative budget, which Rahall very surprisingly supported last year.

2:53 PM PT: The buy is reportedly $113,000.

2:57 PM PT: CO-04: Former Cranston, Rhode Island Mayor Steve Laffey is the first Republican to hit the airwaves in Colorado's open 4th Congressional District, and wow is his ad awful. It's a poorly edited spot featuring his four kids who take turns saying: "He is kind. He only likes thing made in America. He always wins at Monopoly. He likes to talk to the cows. He is very smart. He pays me a quarter to chase the geese away." That is the entirety of the ad. Maybe some people will find it endearing. I am not one of those people.

2:59 PM PT: 1Q Fundraising:

CA-17: Mike Honda (D-inc): $650,000 raised, $1.05 mil cash-on-hand

IA-02: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R): $115,000 raised (in two months), $110,000 cash-on-hand

3:10 PM PT (Darth Jeff): Virginia: Filing closed Thursday for major party candidates in Virginia. Unfortunately there is still no statewide list of candidates. The State Board of Elections has a list of candidates for most races. The remainder can be found thought the Virginia Public Access Project.

The statewide primary is June 10, but many nominations will be officially decided before then. The Republicans will hold a convention on June 7 to select their nominee for US Senate. Of the four candidates, the clear favorite is former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie. While conventions can be unpredictable, none of Gillespie's opponents look like anything more than Some Dudes. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in a race Daily Kos Elections rates as Likely Democratic.

The other race to watch before June 10 is in Northern Virginia's 10th District. Longtime Republican Rep. Frank Wolf is retiring and six Republicans are running to succeed him. The frontrunner looks like Del. Barbara Comstock, with Del. Bob Marshall serving as her main opponent. The nominee will be selected on April 26 in a firehouse primary. Democrats would prefer to face Marshall, who has a long history of supporting extreme legislation. The winner will face Democratic Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust. The district backed Mitt Romney 50-49, and we rate it as Leans Republican.

There is one primary worth watching on June 10, and oh what a primary it is. Democratic Rep. Jim Moran's retirement led to a flood of Democratic politicians running for his Northern Virginia seat. Here is a roundup of the 11 candidates running:

Don Beyer: Former Lieutenant Governor, 1997 gubernatorial nominee

Lavern Chatman: Former Northern Virginia Urban League President

Adam Ebbin: State Senator

Bill Euille: Alexandria Mayor

Charniele Herring: State Delegate, former state party chair

Patrick Hope: State Delegate

Derek Hyra: College professor

Satish Korpe: Democratic activist

Mark Levine: Radio show host

Alfonso Lopez: State Delegate

Bruce Shuttleworth: 2012 candidate
It's worth noting that unlike many Southern states there is no runoff in Virginia. The good news for whoever emerges from this primary is that the district is Safe Democratic.

The remaining nine Virginia House members are running for reelection and most face minimal primary and general election opposition. One possible exception is Seventh district Rep. and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who has a challenge in the Republican primary from college professor Dave Brat. Many anti-establishment conservatives would love to unseat Cantor, but it remains to be seen if Brat has the resources to take down the very powerful Majority Leader. We rate the general election as Safe Republican.

Second district Republican Scott Rigell is the only House incumbent looking vulnerable in November. Rigell will face Democrat Suzanne Patrick, a former navy officer. The district voted for Obama 50-49, but the relatively moderate Rigell is a tough candidate. We rate the general as Likely Republican.


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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 06:00:21 AM PDT

  •  MI-04: Recruiting Sheltrown (8+ / 0-)

    The teaser for a paywalled MIRS story:

    Sheltrown Focus Of Dems' Efforts In 4th

    "The 4th Congressional seat U.S. Rep. Dave CAMP (R-Midland) has opted not to seek re-election for isn't exactly fertile ground for Democrats with its 45 percent Dem base. But if anyone can do it, numerous sources tell MIRS today that former Rep. Joel SHELTROWN is the person to do it."

    That's basically what we knew yesterday, but with more conviction than a "great mentioner" article. Still a long-shot district, but Sheltrown is the best-case scenario for us here.
    •  I have to (0+ / 0-)

      I have to really research this guy, as I only recognize the name in passing.  I'm guessing he's a rural conservadem, right?  It'd be interesting to hear his story.  

      I am getting a bit annoyed by the media continually mentioning the Democratic base of each district, as if that's the end all/be all of an election, as if candidate quality and selection doesn't mean crap.  I see that Republican columnist Ken Braun did the same thing in his MLive column this morning in the 8th, which was also a terrible column in how he mentions a few key names running for that seat and fails to mention how flawed each of them is.  He honestly wrote a whole column on how mainstream each of the candidates were.  Sure, they may not be a Richard Mourdock, but they each have some stances which could very easily become serious issues in a general.

      •  His wiki article.. (0+ / 0-)

        says that he's pretty conservadem, yeah. He'd be at home with Matheson and the like.

        But, he does have a wikipedia page, so that's something, especially since he was just a state rep.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:31:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Re: Wikipedia (0+ / 0-)

          This is a little off-topic, but I started thinking about this the other day. How many voters make their decisions in part or totally based on a candidate's Wikipedia article? Probably not for president, or even statewide and congressional races. But what about further down the ballot?

          Wikipedia is the go-to source of information on the internet, and at most levels of government, candidates are minimally covered, if at all. But it's the biggest SEO winner in the world. A three-sentence biography of a state legislative candidate is going to be one of the first three results on Google, ahead of probably most local news coverage of the race and possibly ahead of the candidate's own website. And when it's the night before the election and you're doing a last-minute search of insurance commissioner candidates before the Democratic primary, a three-sentence biography might make a real impression.

          So it seems to me that a relatively low-cost, high-reward strategy for someone looking to influence downballot elections would be to hire a dedicated staff of partisan Wikipedians. There would have to be some ground rules-- it's easy to tell when an article reads too much like an advertisement, so you'd need to write articles that have that Wikipedia-neutral tone to avoid turning people off or getting caught in an edit war. You'd need to cite everything to look credible. But even when writing a fairly neutral article, you get to decide what's worth including. The candidates that you don't like will inevitably have longer "Controversy" sections than the candidates you do like.

          Any campaign or party caught doing this would be ripped apart by the media. But some shadowy super PAC? It seems like it might have a more lasting impact on dozens of downballot races than flooding the airwaves with the same repetitive ads focused on one or two congressional races.

          •  It's an interesting idea (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, Zack from the SFV

            But I think it would backfire against the candidate regardless of who was responsible. The story would be "Partisans mess with Wikipedia on behalf of Joe Shlabotnik," and Shlabotnik would take the heat.

            Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

            by David Nir on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:06:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  he'd still get Charlie Brown's vote (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV

              SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:08:53 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Joe Shlabotnik (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Zack from the SFV, Danny Ricci

              After Charlie Brown discovered Wikipedia, his historical batting average suddenly went up sharply.  (Peanuts reference.)

              38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:09:48 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              There's clearly a big downside if you're caught, even if it's not officially sanctioned by the campaign. To be clear, I'm absolutely not encouraging people to go to Wikipedia and start playing encyclopedia god to win elections.

              But it's striking how much Wikipedia is a part of our political process. I like to think I'm pretty tuned-in when it comes to races around the country, but if there's a name I don't recognize, that's usually where I get my first sense who someone is. I'm a little surprised no one's trying to exploit that.

              (Or maybe someone is, and they're doing it so subtly that I haven't even noticed... which I guess means they're less manipulating elections and more just writing good encyclopedia articles.)

          •  I'd counter with (0+ / 0-)

            how many people research candidates on the internet?  And I'm not even asking to be smart and to put down your comment as it's really hard to know how normal voters operate and learn about candidates as someone who is hyper-aware of current events and candidates running for office.

            And the only reason why I don't think a PAC or party higher-ups would bother is bc that should be the job of the individual candidate campaigns.  I have definitely seen a few where it's clear the campaign has the entire Wiki page scripted.  I used to like to fuck with former Rep. Bobby Schilling's wiki page bc it was basically his campaign website on a wiki page.  His page is very different now, unfortunately.

          •  Interesting idea (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingTag

            Doesn't even have to be a propaganda page, just put up SOMETHING on the candidate.

            "XXX is a candidate running for [state] CD-YY. His beliefs include a, b, c, and his background is in i, j, k."

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

            by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:10:11 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Glad they're giving it a try. (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:23:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NH Sen: Brown officially in (12+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 06:35:13 AM PDT

  •  WATN. Glen Taylor to buy Minneapolis Star Tribune (7+ / 0-)

    Billionaire former Minnesota Senate Minority Leader Glen Taylor (R) is buying Minnesota's largest newspaper. Taylor the current owner of the Timberwolves, will pay cash for the paper.
    http://m.kstp.com/...

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 06:39:09 AM PDT

    •  Doesn't Strike Me As A Positive Development n/t (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, BeloitDem, WisJohn
      •  Is This A Good Business Move For Him? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        It doesn't seem like buying any paper is a good idea right now. The industry is dying quickly.

        Is the paper traditionally more Democratic leaning or Republican?

        •  Very Liberal Paper...... (7+ / 0-)

          .....and it strikes that Taylor's foray into the newspaper business is similar to that of the Kochs.  They're not seeking to make money (as you said papers this day and age are money pits) so much as sway public opinion rightward.

        •  Pretty neutral, generally (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, ArkDem14

          Maybe not "neutral", but "bipartisan". When they endorse it is serious fangirling/fanboying over the candidates. But the endorse members of both parties frequently.

          They endorsed Klobuchar and Pawlenty in 06, Obama and Coleman on 08, and in 2010 they were all over Rybak's nuts in the primary before not endorsing in the general between Dayton and Emmer.

          It should be noted that Taylor said the same management team will be kept in place, and his plans involve moving to a more digital media medium for the Strib. I dont see him micromanaging, so much as just wanting a piece of the Vikings stadium buyout money.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:17:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And does this matter? (0+ / 0-)

          Especially today when no one reads editorial pages (or papers) anymore.

          And besides, lots of progressive areas have conservative leaning papers (at least their editorial boards in regards to economic issues).

          The "Seattle Times" and the "LA Times" come to mind as two major papers that are very conservative when it comes to Labor and taxes, etc etc.

        •  I dont know about the Strib (0+ / 0-)

          but I remember reading maybe a few years back somewhere that the Pioneer Press, which is St. Paul's paper, was one of the only major newspapers in the country to increase subscriptions.  I dont numbers for the Strib but I'd guess their situation isn't nearly as dire as many other papers in the country.  The Twin Cities is known for being highly educated and literate, which you don't become unless you read.

          And also, the Pioneer Press is a garbage newspaper and it makes 0 sense at this point that we have 2 major newspapers.  He could be thinking more long-term and hopes to buy them out some day.  (I call PiPress garbage bc they have far too many articles that are fluff pieces that belong on the nightly news to fill up air time.)

    •  Well that sucks. Star Tribune has been (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jervill

      going downhill for years now but this certainly won't help matters. Guess we'll have two conservative papers in the Twin Cities now.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:08:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ridic amounts of $$ in yesterday's DC mayor race (5+ / 0-)

    I was comparing the information here about the money each candidate raised with the preliminary results here.

    Assuming that the remaining precincts will see results in line with those already in, and that the candidates spent all the money they raised (uncertain assumptions, of course, but the best we can do for now),

    * Muriel Bowser spent some $29 per vote she got;

    * Vincent Gray spent some $34 per vote;

    * Tommy Wells spent some $36 per vote;

    * Andy Shallal spent some $41 per vote;

    * Vincent Orange spent some $70 per vote;

    * And Jack Evans spent a mindboggling $277 per vote!

    Insane.

  •  SCOTUS strikes again (7+ / 0-)

    US Supreme Court strikes down overall limits on campaign contributions, leaves in place cap on donations to single candidate.

    •  5-4 Decision. FYI. (5+ / 0-)

      Guess who was on each side.

      •  And Roberts wrote the ruling n/t (5+ / 0-)
        •  I don't see this as earth-shaking on its own (14+ / 0-)

          Citizens United was earth-shaking.

          This ruling in McCutcheon is not.

          Had SCOTUS struck down the cap on donations to a single candidate, that would have been more earth-shattering than Citizens United and indeed would have rendered superpacs moot.  It would have meant Adelson or the Kochs can give $100 million or whatever they want to a candidate's own campaign.  Independent expenditure groups would shrivel.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:47:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  SuperPACs allow that basically (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sulthernao, jj32, askew, wadingo

            As Stephen Colbert, showed they are basically unofficial arms of campaigns and can coordinate.

            So this basically removes whatever was left of campaign finance reform.

          •  SuperPACs would still have value (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, wadingo

            in hiding the origins of the money. I assume that even if individual donation limits were lifted, the SCOTUS couldn't possibly justify removing FEC donation reporting requirements.

          •  I read in one article (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            only 650 people hit this limit last cycle.  So definitely not earth-shattering and probably wont make any difference whatsoever.  But I'm sure we both agree on principle that this is deeply saddening.  Seems like it's only a matter of time until they strike down limits altogether.  At least the one positive is that I may be part of amending our constitution, something I didn't really think would ever happen again.

            •  I skeptical (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, gabjoh, redrelic17

              Of the idea that we'll even be able to amend the constitution over campaign financing. I mean, especially with the supreme court throwing out all the rules, I don't see how hard it is for the Kochs and there ilk to just keep 13 state legislatures bought. I think it would be much easier to just hold the White House and the Senate and restore a sane Supreme Court majority. I mean, most of these rulings have been 5-4, and Kennedy and Scalia are both almost 80.

              •  Here's my solution to the campaign finance problem (0+ / 0-)

                I mentioned a "solution" I keep thinking about. I put solution in the marks because I am not sure it's legal, but hey, that's why I am mentioning it now.

                We already do things like match contributions, but much in the same way that this practice would make a kid save more, I think it just makes politicians raise more. Maybe we can manage to give people a large enough sum so that they can compete in each race (in an ideal world, it'd be paired with non-gerrymandered districts and so on) but not large enough so that it's wasted.

                Even if we do that, though, people might still want to contribute. So how do we make sure politicians aren't being bought? My idea is to do some combination of taxing the shit out of contributions past a certain point and/or making the filing requirements a gigantic pain in the ass. Specifically, make it so that everything above, say, $2500 is taxed at a rate of 500 percent and every 10 cents of the amount over that needs to be filed on a separate form, filled out by hand, and then notarized--with all notaries for political contributions taxed at a similarly massive rate.

                I got this idea by seeing how Republicans decided to fuck with the unions in Wisconsin and get around the fact that they can't specifically outlaw abortion in Texas but can create an expensive legislative maze. So why cant we do that with this? If it can't be done at the federal level, why not at the state level?

                It almost seems too obvious, which makes me think it's not workable for any number of reasons. But legislatures can tax and regulate any number of things, so why can't they do that with this?

                "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

                by bjssp on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:46:07 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Can you link this article? (0+ / 0-)

              24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:34:25 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Shira Center tweeted it's actually 591 (3+ / 0-)

                She said 591 hit the aggregate limit in 2012.

                I suppose there could be other individuals who hit the limit in previous cycles but not in 2012, so the potential number of likelies is higher.

                But it really does affect a small number of people and adds up to a small amount of money in the big picture......unless this decision suddenly changes the donating culture to cause a huge class of donors to give a lot more money, when they weren't even approaching the legal max before.

                46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:57:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Honestly, I didn't even know there was an (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, jncca, bjssp

                  overall contribution cap. Pretty inconsequential in and of itself, IMO, but obviously symptomatic of some larger, messed up stuff.

                  "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

                  by gabjoh on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:40:44 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  No, it's a huge deal (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone, bjssp, gabjoh

                    Arguably a bigger deal than the more familiar individual limits for campaigns (currently $5200). Without the overall limits random rich people can write unlimited numbers of checks to candidates. But the huge winners here are party committees, and there are many of them. DNC, DCCC, DSCC, all the state party committees with federal components (which will now proliferate). Each of these will now create separate legal entities for each candidate in their purview, and each billionaire will be able to max out to every one of them. One calculation I've seen shows that a single donor could give as much as $3.6 million for the benefit of A SINGLE CANDIDATE for federal office. And this would be to parties, who can coordinate and directly advocate for the election of the candidate, unlike SuperPACs, 501c4's, and 527's. Multiply that by several billionaires, and you can see the problem. The Court's decision is the fastest, easiest way to pure oligarchy.

                    •  Good point on party committees (0+ / 0-)

                      Yes, that's a big deal, I didn't consider that.

                      Somehow I feel like that's still a much more level playing field for our side than superpacs.

                      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:53:34 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  Not a surprise (19+ / 0-)

      The activist 5 continue to operate in la la land where money = speech and politicians are never influenced by money.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:28:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Heh (6+ / 0-)

      Now this just pisses me off.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:30:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ugh (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea

      This was totally expected, but I still don't get their logic.  The end game in all of this is why have any limits, at all?  This is the very definition of a slippery slope, and we're just about at the bottom of the hill.

    •  So (9+ / 0-)

      when does the SCOTUS strike down the ban on foreigners being able to contribute to campaigns?

      You know they'll do it because you know, rich Russian oligarchs in the pocket of Putin, Saudi oil billionaires and bankers in Europe have the right as much as every other American to donate to candidates of our choosing. #SCOTUSlogic

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:04:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Disgusting and depressing, but not unexpected (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MetroGnome

      This codifies the idea that the wealthy and powerful can buy elections. Perhaps they need a suitable candidate first to win, but now they can flood elections with however much money they want.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:55:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Phew! (11+ / 0-)

      If there was one clear threat to justice in America, it's that people with lots of money did not have enough political influence.

  •  FL-03 GOP challenger to Yoho a vampire roleplayer? (7+ / 0-)

    Umm... ok.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Florida GOP Candidate Moonlights As Vampire Role-Player 'Chazz Darling'

    An attorney challenging first-term Rep. Ted Yoho (R-FL) moonlights as a live-action vampire role-player, according to a Florida political news site.

    SaintPetersBlog on Tuesday detailed Jake Rush's involvement in the Mind's Eye Society, a national community of live-action role-players. Rush played a host of supernatural characters -- “Chazz Darling" and “Staas van der Winst" were just two of his alter-egos -- and kept up an active presence on the Camarilla Wiki Project, a Wikipedia-like website that allowed role-players to share content.

    Business Insider also reported that Rush appears to have held a prominent position with a Florida-based group called the "Covenant of the Poisoned Absinthe," which stages "an assortment of games from White Wolf's selection, including Vampire: The Masquerade, Changeling: The Lost, and Mage: The Awakening." White Wolf publishes live-action role-playing games for the Mind's Eye community.

    But at least one message that Rush appears to have posted on a Yahoo message board in 2010 under his "Chazz Darling" vampire alias is eyebrow-raising. Rush wrote in an explicit and now-deleted post to another role-player that he "wanted to stick my dick in your mouth to shut you up while I snorted a line off my new machete," before warning "you shouldn’t believe everything that people tell you or you’re going to end up naked and sore, tied to the floor of a van marked 'Free Candy,'" according to SaintPetersBlog.

    Rush responded to the attention around his role-playing in a lengthy statement that emphasized his acting experience while blaming Yoho's campaign for "mischaracterizing" his "gaming and theatre hobby."

    “As a straight shooter, yes, I play and have played video games, role playing games, board games, Yahtzee, Clue, and I have acted in dozens of theatre productions," Rush said, as quoted by SaintPetersBlog.

    “Bottom line – There is nothing wrong with being a gamer. It’s kinda nerdy, but North Central Florida deserves a legitimate debate on the issues instead of Ted Yoho’s usual sideshow distractions,” he concluded.

  •   First openly Trans elected official in WI (25+ / 0-)

    Appleton, Wisconsin, home of Joe McCarthy and the John Birch Society, elected Gypsy Vered Metzler to the city council yesterday, making her the first openly transgender elected official in Wisconsin history. Congrats!

    https://www.facebook.com/...

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:42:02 AM PDT

    •  Ah, good memories (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb

      of visiting my maternal grandma as a kid and playing the NES she had bought for her youngest son.  She also used to be a wiz at "Burger Time."

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:08:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I can't believe that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Nobody is good at Burger Time. It's freaking impossible.

        •  It's how arcade games of yore got so many quarters (0+ / 0-)

          but if you practice hard enough, you get there.  I could get to Level 4 (of 9) after some practice, but it get too crazy.  Also, the short looping theme drives you a little crazy.  My grandmother could get to level 8!  And her sister could get through all 9 levels, but that was before my time.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:28:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Could Dems be turning the corner? (11+ / 0-)

    Now that ObamaCare is becoming unrepealable and it is becoming successful (getting more than 7 million signups despite all the problems), I think all the ObamaCare attacks from Republicans could very well backfire spectacularly.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:57:29 AM PDT

    •  I think so. Repubs already floudering. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, LordMike, bythesea

      Their messaging on this started to collapse last month, and even yesterday the media's tune had visibly changed.  I think this may help Grimes in KY, Hagan in NC, and Landreau in LA.  Probably Begich too.  Don't see it helping us in AR for some reason...

    •  I think (8+ / 0-)

      the last major obstacle left is the subsidies lawsuit, as I mentioned yesterday.

      •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, bythesea

        If that ruling goes against us, we're fucked.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:14:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends at what level the ruling goes against... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701, ehstronghold, sulthernao

          If SCOTUS rules against, then, yes, we are fucked, but if the three judge panel (which we, of course, got a shitty draw) means little if we can get an en banc ruling, which is certainly a better draw in our favor.  I suspect that SCOTUS doesn't want to touch this if they can avoid it.  Unfortunately, there are lots of other circuits out there, I'm sure one will rule against us.  Delay is our friend here, though.  If Hillary can win a landslide and get the house back with the Senate, this issue can be easily fixed in a budget reconciliation bill.

          "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

          by LordMike on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:32:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I actually think it might not be as bad as some (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, sacman701, bythesea

          think. Clearly the system couldn't operate without subsidies. However, there would also be considerable pressure at the federal level to fix the issue so as to stop millions from getting kicked off their health insurance. Even in our highly polarized times, I think some sort of deal to fix the issue could be worked out (perhaps in exchange for getting rid of the employer mandate or something like that).

          Even if a federal fix couldn't be worked out, state legislators would be under tremendous pressure to deem the federal exchange to be their state's exchange. Although some hardcore Republican states (most significantly Texas and possibly Florida and Georgia) would likely still refuse the fix, I think most states would work towards a work-around to the premium rises and disenrollments. Even in the worst case scenario I think Obamacare ends up continuing to function everywhere but the deep south, Texas and Oklahoma and the reddest states of the mountain west.

          28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:52:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Also, implementation of the mandate (4+ / 0-)

        If the implementation of the penalty goes smoothly, and most people see they arent really affected by it, then I think that helps entrench the law even more. Since the individual mandate is the most unpopular part of the law. In some polls, I think it's the only unpopular provision of the law.

        I actually worry more about that then the subsidies lawsuit.

    •  Perhaps (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, itskevin, JBraden

      Generic ballot polling movement in most every poll is Democratic.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 10:13:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MN-Sen, GOP debate (0+ / 0-)

    so I just caught up on some excerpts and highlights from last night's debate hosted by the Republican Jewish Coalition of Minnesota.

    The short story is that I am now more convinced than ever that Senator Julianne Ortman will win the nomination. And I am now fairly sure she will do so by a large margin.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:05:46 AM PDT

  •  wow, big money dump in a Republican primary here (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, benamery21, redrelic17

    Wealthy right-wing funder Loren Parks and Stimson Lumber together dropped $100k into the campaign of the primary challenger to Republican State Rep. Vic Gilliam, who represents a rural district in the Willamette Valley (where I grew up). This is apparently because of his vote to create special driver cards for undocumented people. This is interesting because elsewhere in the state Stimson Lumber's CEO is supporting several moderate Republicans in state house primaries against more conservative opponents.

    The name of Darnell's political action committee -- I Will Vote Like a Republican Should Committee -- describes the criticism leveled against Gilliam, who some conservative Republicans see as too moderate.

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 10:03:23 AM PDT

  •  I went on (0+ / 0-)

    David Catania's DC Mayoral website last night. It was the first time I actually took time to look through the platform of a candidate, because, besides knowing he's supposed to be a moderate, his positions were ambiguous. Looking through, I liked what I saw, and he was good even on Economic issues, like supporting a minimum waqe. However, I didn't notice any stance on abortion on the website (correct me if I missed it), so I'm curious as to whether or not his position is public and if anyone knows it.

    •  I personally dont know what to think of him (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Avedee

      He was formerly a Republican, and then he switched in 2004 to Indy.  And he's gay.  On one hand, he switched right when the GOP began their crusade against in full swing, on the other, he still used to be a GOPer and it's not like they were supportive of us before.  The Dems certainly took their sweet time as well, but it's been obvious for a long time who the LGBTQ community should be voting for.

      And I say this as someone who would refuse to date a GOPer.  When the GOP finally supports equality, then I'd be open to being with a Republican.  But I sure hope I'm not single when I'm in my 40's!

  •  MI-08: Anuzis, Byrum, Bernero, GOP primary poll (6+ / 0-)

    Saul Anuzis on Twitter:

    Congress MI-8: I'm out for at least 3 practical reason:) Just can't afford it.  Thanks to all who offered support! http://ow.ly/...
    The rest is from the Detroit News. Barb Byrum:
    For the Democrats, Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum flew to Washington to huddle with Democratic leaders and build momentum for a potential candidacy. She’s expected to meet with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s list officials Wednesday.
    And then Virg Bernero responds:
    “My decision on whether or not to run for Congress will not be made in Washington and it won’t even be influenced by Washington,” said Bernero, who lost his gubernatorial bid to Republican Rick Snyder in 2010. “It will be made right here in the district.”
    ... which is dumb, because you know that if the DCCC wanted to meet with him, he would've been on the plane in a heartbeat. But I guess you've got to spin it whatever way you can.

    Anyway, we've also got our first poll:

    Bishop, R-Rochester, is running ahead of other GOP candidates, according to new automated survey of Republican primary voters in the 8th Congressional District. Nearly 23 percent favored Bishop; 18 percent, state Sen. Joe Hune, R-Fowlerville; 6 percent Barnett; and 4 percent former Michigan GOP chair Saul Anuzis. Almost half of those surveyed were undecided.

    The poll was conducted by Murray Communications, a Michigan-based Republican political consulting firm, with Portable Insights and Combat Data Inc. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

    Normal caveats about Michigan pollsters apply.
    •  Is there a GOP candidate that Dems (0+ / 0-)

      would prefer to run against? Of that list, especially, is one stronger than the others or does it not matter much?

      •  Choice (0+ / 0-)

        My choice would be the one with the least name recognition, so probably Barnett.  Next would be Hune.  Bishop is probably the most formidable because he was the former State Majority Leader, which provides him with all kinds of fundraising options the other two don't have.

    •  Well, that's too bad (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux, sapelcovits, Danny Ricci

      I liked our chances against jackal-headed Egyptian patron god of mummification Saul Anuzis.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 10:48:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's especially funny re Bernero (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, aamail6, BeloitDem

      Considering he said he was waiting for a DCCC poll to decide what he would do! (As if the DCCC is at his beck-and-call or something.) What's more, I don't think serious candidates talk about the D-Trip. It's sort of like Fight Club.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:09:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      The Lansing City Pulse is reporting that both Byrum and Bernero are doing polling.  But, it sounds like Bernero may simply be waiting on Byrum's poll.  Either way, it was hinted in the article that she's solidly out front.

      This is Virg being Virg.  He's my mayor, and I' support him for damn-near any office.  And, quite frankly, I don't think he'd be a horrible candidate.  Byrum is obviously the better choice at this point, but I don't get angry with his BSing, anymore.  I've kind of gotten used to his bluster and find it a bit endearing. lol

  •  FL: Rubio indicates he will choose between (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, bythesea, Avedee, itskevin

    a re-election bid and a presidential bid.

    Technically, he could run for president, and then if his bid failed, come back to FL and file for re-election before the deadline.

    But that doesnt seem feasible. I think he will choose re-election since it would be the easier of the two races, although hopefully, Dems will put up a strong candidate(Rep. Patrick Murphy?) regardless of what Rubio does.  

    •  He could run for Pres (0+ / 0-)

      and then Bill Nelson's seat comes up for election in 2018.  It'd be a total waste of seniority and I also really doubt his ability to win the nomination.  Not to mention, who would want to give up a Senate seat to run against Hillary?

    •  Should he run for re-election (7+ / 0-)

      I think he is more beatable than most people think. Particularly if the Democratic nominee for president is carrying the state.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:15:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Can't imagine why he wouldn't be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Danny Ricci

        It's FL, after all. People tend to be pretty polarized. Find a guy like Nelson and run him. Let Hillary's coattails carry him to victory.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:22:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree. Here's why. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        If you look at the 2016 Senate seats that are up, I think he's going to get a serious challenge. The top prospects for our side are, in no order, WI, IL, and PA. After that, what else is there that we might challenge? In alphabetical order, it's AZ, FL, GA, IN, IA, KY, MO, NH, NC, OH, and SC.

        You could make an argument for leaving off, say, IA and SC and maybe adding AK, depending on what happens, or maybe adding in ND if Hoeven retires, but you'd have to really be out there to not think FL will be contested.

        As I see it, FL is definitely friendlier territory (in a variety of ways) than AZ, GA, IN, KY, MO, SC, and maybe even NC. It's probably friendlier than NH or OH, too, because of the racial dynamics. We need a candidate, sure, and the state party there might shit the bed in a variety of ways, but it's not becoming any less white and, with or without HRC as a candidate, our side will be scouring the state just as much as their side.

        So really, I think it's probably number one on our list outside of the obvious three.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:31:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Top of the ticket will be key (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea

          Out of 33 races in 2012 only 6 went with the other party in comparison to the presidential vote (Tester, Heitkamp, McCaskill, Donnelly, Manchin and Heller). Say Republicans win 7 seats net this November for a 52-48 majority. If presidential preference in 2016 broke exactly the same way then Democrats would emerge right back at 55 seats.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:57:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The last poll proved IA competitive even if (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, BoswellSupporter

          even if C Grassley runs again. The question now if if T Vilsack runs. I expect he runs.

          Also I dont see FL friendlier than NH. We must take into account that FL was D+1 before Obama and now is R+2. The racial dinamic of the state is not having as big effect in the last years, and I would not expect a big effect in the short term. Still I expect FL-Sen 2016 contested. The weakness of M Rubio allows to it.

          It would be possible to add AR to the list if M Beeve runs. The quality of the candidates will matter a lot telling what seats will be competitive.

          •  Vilsack/Grassley (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, abgin, jncca

            Vilsack is a good policy wonk and a great candidate.  He's got to get better at working a room.  I've been in the room with both Grassley and Vilsack at different times.  Every time I make eye contact with Vilsack he never came over to me.  Grassley on the other hand comes over to people, chats with anyone.  I was wearing a Culver/Judge t-shirt at an event and Grassley still took the time to chat with me about different things.  

            Vilsack's presidential bid proved that he's not as good at working the room and being folksy as Chuck Grassley.  I think Vilsack will improve at this if he runs against Grassley, the question is will he be good enough to beat Chuck Grassley.  I have my doubts.  

            I know campaigns are not really based on face to face interaction anymore and Eastern Iowa is becoming so Democratic that Vilsack would have a lot of votes in the bank automatically, but the Grassley machine is even stronger than the Branstad machine and Vilsack declined to run against Branstad.  

            IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

            by BoswellSupporter on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:12:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Clinton on the ballot would definitely be (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, bythesea, jncca

        a big plus.

        A lot depends on Rubio's approval rating. They were at 52-37 in a Jan Quinnipiac poll.

        If they are that strong in 2015-2016, it might dissuade Murphy or another stronger Dem from running.

        •  That's the problem (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, jncca

          Popular incumbents draw weak challengers, while vulnerable incumbents draw strong challengers.

          Rubio has to be perceived as objectively vulnerable by the potentially strong candidates who would be paying the opportunity cost of challenging him.  Why would Patrick Murphy give up his U.S. House seat to challenge a U.S. Senator with strong approvals?  Same goes for anyone else.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:49:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  This is where Republicans taking the Senate (0+ / 0-)

            this year might help us for 2016. My guess is that the insanity is ramped up a couple hundred notches, and lots of Republicans, even the ones trying to govern in some way, are caught up. If so, expect to see Rubio tarred with everything so he looks weaker for 2016.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:55:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  They were weaker in other polls (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          For instance in October 2013 PPP had Rubio at 43/45 and in March 2013 at 44/43. I think there was another poll or two from other pollsters that found him lower than that gaudy 52/37. Quinnipiac found approvals for everyone in their poll higher than PPP, with Bill Nelson in particular sticking out.

    •  Kathy Castor for Senate in 2016!! (0+ / 0-)

      MI-8, 71, married, 7 children, 16 grandchildren, retired, independent but progressive

      by jimmich on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:47:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yuck, someone beat Lee Terry already. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    He's full of profligacy.  Whether it be his rumored wild flings with women at parties, his (confirmed) nude swimming in the Sea of Galilee, or this, he just has to go.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:54:45 AM PDT

    •  I thought that swimming was Yoder over in KS. (5+ / 0-)

      "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

      by James Allen on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:57:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ah yes, I believe so (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        but he did participate in some drunken revels with him and Quayle at Galilee.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:00:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This wouldn't be a problem, except (0+ / 0-)

          they were visiting Israel under taxpayer funds and they use that time to get drunk off their asses and desecrate holy sites like Philistines.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:05:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's just a joke. (0+ / 0-)

      I thought it was funny.  Politicians take themselves too seriously; it's nice to find one who doesn't.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:42:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, but I'm talking in general. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        This gave me an excuse to talk about him and how much of a slug he is.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:08:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hagan being under 45 is not very comforting at all (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    I'm not so concerned about being under 50, but going under 45 raises a bunch of red flags about whether she can make up the difference. I'm really surprised she is having as much trouble in the polls, especially compared to other Dems in red states.

    I would be thinking this crazy Republican primary would be having some positive impact for her, but clearly it hasn't materialized yet ("yet" is the key word).

  •  CO-Gov: Beaprez last week warned of Sharia Law (7+ / 0-)

    creeping into Colorado: http://coloradopols.com/...

    Question: What would you do or not do to stop the implementation of Sharia Law here in Colorado. For any of you who don’t know what that is, it is the martial law that is being implemented in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran. It’s being implemented now in some of the states here in the United States.
    Bob Beauprez: You’re on a very good point. It is creeping in. It’s creeping in not only in Colorado, but all across America.
    He goes into how the Lower Manhattan Muslim community center (aka "Ground Zero Mosque") somehow fits into the pattern of creeping Sharia Law.

    Hey, brainless, so long as we have a justice system dispensed by a secular authority, Sharia Law is impossible to implement here.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:03:13 PM PDT

  •  NC-SEN: Has Hagan or any Dem group started (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    clevelandpacha, sulthernao

    running ads here?

    I think it would be helpful if they did. It seems like they might have made a difference in NH-SEN.

  •  MI-Lt. Gov: Schauer reportedly picks Brown (12+ / 0-)

    It's a good thing work has been slow for me lately, because things keep happening in races I'm interested in.

    From Rick Pluta (NPR) via Twitter:

    Oakland County Clerk @LisaBrown39 will be tapped as @MarkSchauer's running mate for Lt Gov on the MI Democratic ticket #itsjustpolitics
    and
    @gnaeyaert @LisaBrown39 @MarkSchauer announcement tomorrow
    Brown was one of the three county clerks to perform same-sex marriage ceremonies before the appeals court stayed the ruling. When she was in the state House, she was one of the Democratic women involved in "vaginagate." Definitely considered a rising star in Michigan Democratic circles. She's almost certainly intended as a metro Detroit balance to the West(ish) Michigan Schauer.
    •  She also represented a surprisingly light-red HD. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:13:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  big election for Oakland County this year. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bythesea

      "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

      by James Allen on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:17:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Great news (0+ / 0-)

      I remember thinking at the time that happened that it would be awesome if she ran for higher office.  

    •  Very good choice, hopefully she brings energy (0+ / 0-)

      to Schauer ticket.  He can't seem to capture any attention by himself.  I think, and I'll take heat for saying this, but Dems have a hard time getting fired up for white guys as candidates these days.

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:46:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can't do wrong (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueonyx, Skaje, HoosierD42

      You couldn't do wrong with Byrum, Brown, or Whitmer.  Though, for me, with Peters already anchoring what's shaping up to be a slate, anyway, out of Oakland, Brown would have been at the bottom of these closely packed picks.  I'd have ranked it Whitmer, Byrum, Brown.

      Anyway, you can't go wrong with Brown, and I'm glad to see such a deep bench of women to choose from in Michigan politics, this cycle.  We've got Brenda Lawrence in MI-14, Pam Byrne in MI-07, Barb Byrum likely in MI-08, Nancy Skinner likely in MI-11...these are all very serious candidates.

      •  LG candidates (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome

        Whitmer would've been my first choice too but it doesn't seem like she intends to run for anything this year.  I was indifferent about my second choice.  Brown and Byrum are both good choices.

        If Byrum does run in MI-8, I hope Jocelyn Benson runs for SoS.  There's less than 3 weeks before the filing deadline and the Dems don't have a candidate for SoS yet.

        •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

          Yes, that's worrying me.  Benson is such a "no, duh" choice, that you'd think she'd have been in this months ago or that you've have seen people screaming for her to get it.  I can't imagine why she's being so coy.  If she wasn't going to run for anything, she could have allowed us to focus our energies elsewhere.  

          In this year - which will a better year for us in Michigan than 2010 - I would have actually placed the SoS race as Lean Dem were she in this thing.  This seems like our easiest state-wide pick-up, and yet absolutely no attention has been given to it.  

          I can't even put into words how much of a BFD it would be to get back SoS.  A lot of the state party's results can be traced back to Republican having near carte blanche control of how elections are handled.  Michigan is so far behind the times when it comes to actually conducting elections.  Even more conservative Southern states often have more than we do.  We don't have early voting; we don't even have no-reason absentee.  Just getting this seat back, alone, could result in higher Democratic turnout in subsequent years.  You know, an electorate that actually and regularly reflects the politican leanings of the state, for once.

  •  Newark, N.J. mayor poll (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, jj32, KingofSpades, abgin, sulthernao

    Baraka 51  Jeffries 28.  Benenson Strategy Group.

    http://www.nj.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:23:19 PM PDT

    •  Haven't followed this closely at all. (0+ / 0-)

      Who do you like between the two of them?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:39:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm personally a Baraka fan (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        to a large degree the fault lines are the same as the Booker years, with Jeffries being the one closer to Booker (though he hasn't explicitly endorsed). The main difference being Baraka isn't (well, hopefully) a crook.

        And it looks like the person who is accused of torching Baraka's bus was a paid canvasser for Jeffries. While "paid canvasser" is not exactly at the top of the campaign food chain, and I highly doubt anyone with Jeffries' campaign was involved, it's not good for appearances.

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

        by gabjoh on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:54:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Street Fight, Part 2. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          Newark politics love vicious battles.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:01:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That documentary got me interested in politics (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, jncca

            The 2005 documentary film is one of the many things that first got me interested in politics.  It might be the best political documentary I've seen to date.  You had to corrupt, long-time Mayor Sharpe James vs. the young, reformer Corey Booker.  It was a very compelling film on big city machine politics.  The tactics used by the James campaign was horrendous.  Hopefully Newark's next Mayor will be more like Booker than James.

            •  Not really like either (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ChadmanFL

              he's got Booker's outsider-y vibe, but James's base of support in terms of voters. And policy and rhetoric-wise, he's to the left of both of them, and not corrupt. The closest comparison I can think of is actually Chokwe Lumumba down in Jackson, Mississippi.

              "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

              by gabjoh on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:47:36 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Baraka (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DownstateDemocrat, KingofSpades

        Jeffries is even more a tool of the school privateers and wall street than Booker was.

        "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

        by Paleo on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 04:11:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Misc. (7+ / 0-)

    So last night, as David mentioned, there were local elections in Wisconsin. For the most part, the good guys all won. All races were officially non-partisan.

    Even in WI Bachmann-land (Saint Croix County), Dem-affiliated candidates won.

    http://www.bluecheddar.net/...

    Also of note, Sen. Kathleen Vinehout's husband, Doug Kane, was elected to the Buffalo County Board.

    Also, on the eighth try since 1982, the voters of Sparta, WI allowed beer and wine sales in grocery and convenience stores within the city limits. Liquor is still banned.
    From Wikipedia:

    The city of Sparta, Wisconsin is the largest community in Wisconsin that restricts beer and liquor sales to taverns and restaurants that have an on-premises consumption license. Grocery and convenience stores cannot sell beer and liquor there. The community abolished Class A licenses for retail sales in 1966 through referendum, when a local liquor store owner in the city objected to a grocery store's application for a class A license. Referendums were defeated in 1982, 1986, 1992, 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2011 for class A licenses. Opposition to Class A licenses in the community is widely believed to be from the liquor store owner(s), who locate on the border of the city in neighboring towns that allow Class A licenses. Local opposition from these liquor stores is also widely believed to be a monopolistic motivation to protect their business trade by restricting it in Sparta.[91] On April 7, 2009, in the Wisconsin 2009 spring general election, voters defeated the referendum questions about changing restrictions on the beer and liquor sales in Sparta, for the sixth time.[92] In the April 5, 2011 Wisconsin spring election, Sparta voted for the seventh time not to change restrictions on the sale of beer and liquor in the city.[93] In the April 1, 2014 Wisconsin spring election, the voters narrowly approved the sale of wine and beer in groceries and convenience stories. Liquor sales remain banned in the city.[94]

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:55:59 PM PDT

  •  MI poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo, jj32, bythesea

    A new poll by Marketing Resource Group has Snyder leading Schauer 47% to 39% and Land leading Peters 40% to 38%.  The article does mentioned that this is a pollster who usually works for Republicans.  

    The poll has Democrats making up 31% of the sample.  Most exit polls show Democrats typically account for 40% of the vote.  I think a small lead for Snyder and Peters is probably more accurate.

    http://www.mlive.com/...  

    •  Looks good for keeping MI senate seat (0+ / 0-)

      at least, and I think Snyder's numbers will drop as the year goes on.  Will they go down enough is the real question, though.

    •  This party ID stuff is a misguided fiction (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, GradyDem

      I'm amazed how it persists that people insist on looking at party ID as somehow relevant to a poll's accuracy.

      Party ID is never part of the turnout model unless the sample was screened partly for party ID in the first place, which rarely is done in public polls--especially in a state that doesn't have party-based voter registration to provide a baseline.  Party ID in a poll like this one is just another output, one of the results.

      I'm slightly less optimistic on Michigan than a lot of DKEers seem to be.  I suspect Peters really isn't doing as well as he should be, although yes that can change by Labor Day and beyond.  And I suspect also that Snyder is tougher to beat than some here think......he's not at all in the same territory as Corbett or LePage or Scott.  Those 3, I think we beat 'em, and Snyder is the next most vulnerable GOP Governor after them, but I'd peg his race now at lean R.  Indeed, I can see come October a situation where Peter has staked out a lead without MI-Gov budging at all.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:48:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Fiction? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome, Le Champignon

        Was it fiction in 2012 when all those "MI is tied" polls that continually undersampled Democrats and younger voters ended up being wrong?  Demographics such as party ID, race, age, etc are absolutely valuable to assessing the accuracy of a poll.  

        In 2012, the polls didn't fit the facts.  The facts were that neither the Obama or Romney campaigns were spending time or money in MI.  If MI had truly been a tossup, both campaigns would have been investing a lot of resources in the state.  The polls showing Snyder with a nearly double digit lead don't fit with the facts.  Popular incumbents who are cruising to reelection don't need to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars 14 months before an election.  They don't need flashy million dollar Super Bowl ads.  

        I don't really have an issue if people see the race an Lean R since incumbents are difficult to beat.  I, however, see it as a tossup.    

        •  You're mixing up different things (0+ / 0-)

          Undersampling young voters matters.  That's real.  Age distribution is part of sample selection, and if it's not in your poll and you get something significantly unrepresentative, that's a problem.

          But party ID is more fluid, especially in a state with no party-based voter registration.  If you have party-based registration, you can pick a sample based on the distribution, so long as you are careful to make sure other key factors like geographic distribution and demographics are representative.

          Of course the 2012 polls were bullshit, but the party ID makeup of those polls didn't really tell us that...other clues did.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 06:59:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Do you think Peters is behind? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome

        Or is it just that you think he's not commanding a big enough lead? Those are two very different things.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:02:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Arizona-Gov is the biggest question mark (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        madmojo

        The scarce polling basically has it even with a crazy number of undecideds.  That race could end up anywhere between Tossup and Likely R for all I know.  I suspect is this year is even slightly Dem-leaning AZ-Gov will be right there with MI-Gov in likelihood of flipping.

        KS-Gov is another hard one to decipher.  The polls have Brownback tied or trailing slightly.  Seems only the deep red tilt of the state is keeping analysts calling this Likely R.  I'd call it Leans R.

      •  True, "unskewing" is bullshit (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MetroGnome, askew, bjssp, DCCyclone

        actually shifting the party ID in the poll to something predetermined, and then declaring that to be the "real" poll.  That's basically just making up numbers.

        But checking party ID can be a decent sanity check...just one of many.  If you poll Hawaii and get something like 30% Dem, 25% GOP, 45% Ind you know you screwed up.  But then again, the toplines would be so wacky that you'd already know that.

      •  I'd be more concerned (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        If Land was polling above 40%. At the moment there are so many undecided in these numbers that they don't mean much. It looks like the mirror image of Georgia to me. States with a similar PVI for each party but deceptive polls due to name recognition.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 04:36:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The only (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo

      The only thing I can take from MRG that corroborates with other recent polls is that the gap is closing between the two (Schauer-Snyder).  It's also another poll with Snyder not being able to hit 50%.  Of all of the polls taken of this race over the last year or so (and it's been about 20) one has shown Snyder at 50%, and that was Mitchell (another Republican pollster) back in October.

      Beyond that, I don't have much more to say.  31% Dem sample shows that they geographic sampling is f%cked up; that's how you get these kind of numbers given that they aren't controlling for turnout.

    •  Background on MRG (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I'm just looking through old polling data of fairly recent Senate and gubernatorial races here in Michigan.  What I can gather is that MRG seems to poll once or two during an entire cycle, and very rarely in the last months of a campaign.  Given that everyone knows that things don't tighten until the last few months and weeks, really, I wonder if this isn't a strategy by GOP campaigns in this state to make themselves look better?

      And, yes, they tend to even then understate Democratic support.  Their poll during the 2012 Senate race (September), here, showed Stabenow up by only six, when most other polls were showing her up 10+ points.

      This state's most accurate pollster seems to be EPIC-MRA, and even they understate Democratic support.  I've been thinking about why Dems support seems to be understated, and the only thing I can come up with is that maybe they grossly underpoll Detroit and its immediate suburbs?  I really do think it has to be something to do with geography.

      •  Yeah, EPIC-MRA is just about the only (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome

        non-joke Michigan pollster.  That said, they're usually 5-10 points pro-GOP, but at least consistently so.

        •  Best of the Rest (0+ / 0-)

          Yep, of the crappy pollsters, they are the least crappy.  I pay attention to them, first, because they are so prolific, and then also beause Dems and Republicans in pretty equal numbers seem to use them, so they aren't explicitly partisan in their clientele.  

          Still, their big fault is that they are consummate villagers, which means there is always a tilt toward conventional wisdom, which in America has been a rightward tent for as long as I can remember.  Like the rest, they have the hardest time picking up Democratic movement on the ground, so even when their polling doesn't favor Republicans, it makes the races look far closer than they really are.

          For these two races, the only ones I put any kind of trust in are PPP and EPIC.  The rest are either hit-and-run, fly-by-night pollsters trying to push a conservative narrative or explicitly partisan pollsters.  It'll be interesting to see what PPP shows when they poll these races, and even their polls now weight more heavily towards Republicans than they used to.

  •  Mary Rose Wilcox (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, sacman701, bythesea, CF of Aus

    maiden name is Garrido.  She and Pastor are both 4th generation Arizonans of Mexican-American heritage from the tiny copper mining communities in the mountains east of Phoenix.  Wilcox was born in Superior, Pastor in Claypool.  Pastor is 6 years older than Wilcox.  Both had fathers in the miners union.  Both attended ASU when it was a much smaller school, and stayed in the Valley.  Pastor was in law school there, while Wilcox was an undergrad (he has a J.D. she dropped out after 3 or 4 years to get married).  Both have been involved in Phoenix area activism and politics basically since their student days in the 60's.  

    Note that the copper miners unions were important forces in Democratic politics and civil rights movements in Arizona into the 80's.  The founder of La Raza (Maclovio Barraza) was also from Superior, AZ.

    This is not an endorsement of Wilcox, who is not among my favorite AZ Dems.  

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:50:45 PM PDT

  •  Colorado miscellany (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, bythesea, BeloitDem, DCCyclone

    Don't know if this was posted yet or not (been less active the past couple days)...a couple more articles from the fine folks at ColoradoPols:

    GOP has another racist candidate for a potentially winnable state House seat in the Denver suburbs.  Lots of charming talk from that candidate about "the Blacks".

    Gardner recommits to Personhood, just a couple weeks after very publicly denouncing his previous support.  Flip-flop-flip?  I can't think of any way this could have possibly gone worse for him.  The crazies still don't trust him, but he's tied himself back to an insane policy that will drive away moderate suburban voters in droves.

    This all continues the trend of the Colorado GOP running wacko candidates like they're in Alabama.  It may be a closely divided state, but one side seems determined to forfeit control of the statewide offices and legislature.

  •  PA GOV: Wolf 33% Schwartz 7% McCord 6% McGinty 4% (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, poopdogcomedy, DCCyclone

    A new F&M has little changed from its Feb poll, Wolf maintains a massive lead in the primary but down to 33% from 36% last month. The other candidates seem to going nowhere stuck in the single digits with a lot of undecideds still (46%) so a lot of room for the others to grow but a significant uphill climb for them. I'd rather be in Wolf's shoes right now.

    Link

  •  MI-Sen & Gov, what's the polling firms accuracy (0+ / 0-)

    rate? I know MI polls are weird but just wanted to get an idea. Lets see what PPP will have for us. MI was the most voted state to be polled.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:44:46 PM PDT

  •  That Alaska ad is almost as bad as (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, WisJohn

    the one Pete Ricketts ran against Ben Nelson in 2006:
    https://www.youtube.com/... (This was a TV ad too.)

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:46:14 PM PDT

    •  I dont see how anyone can take those ads seriously (0+ / 0-)

      Some Repub groups threw out some weird ads in PA-12 in the 2010 special that also tried to cartoonishly play up Dem leadership and we all know how that went.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:47:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Virginia (5+ / 0-)

    According to the Green Papers, the Democrats in VA-05, 06, 07, 09, and 10 are having conventions, as are the Republicans in VA-03, 08, and 11 (and for the Senate), and they're having that firehouse primary for VA-10. So the primary candidate list will be lacking candidates in those districts.

    It does seem to indicate that Democrats aren't fielding anyone for VA-01 or VA-04, though.

    Also, Najarian didn't get on the ballot in VA-08.

    •  Which is probably just as well (0+ / 0-)

      Of those districts, 10 is the only one likely to have a competitive general election.  The others are just picking sacrificial candidates and probably doing housekeeping/party building stuff.

      In the Democratic primary in the 8th, meanwhile, Don Beyer apparently has the luck of the draw as his name will be first on the long list of competitors--something that doesn't hurt, especially with what may well be his higher name recognition.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:36:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks! I've nuked Najarian (0+ / 0-)

      Phew, we're down to a close intimate 11 candidates!

      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 04:01:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Seriously? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tayya

      We get candidates for the impossible VA-06, VA-07, and VA-09, but not for the slightly less impossible VA-01 and VA-04. Especially mad about VA-04. We never have a serious challenger there. No need to respond with excuses for VA-04 Democrats, we hear them every cycle.

      Impractical progressive Democrat.

      by redrelic17 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:27:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA7 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    I got Eric Cantor's campaign song for the primary right here.

    https://www.youtube.com/...

    SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:37:13 PM PDT

  •  Potential 2016 convention sites (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    For the RNC, narrowed from eight to six.  Goodbye, Columbus.  Sorry, Phoenix.

    Now, does anyone know where the DNC's convention site choosing stands?  While still over two years away, I hate to see us lag too far behind the other side organizationally.

    38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:39:37 PM PDT

  •  GA Sen Channel 2/ Landmark poll (8+ / 0-)

    Perdue 38
     Nunn  33

    Gingery 41
    Nunn     38

    Broun 38
    Nunn 38

    Kingston 38
    Nunn 37

    Nunn 38
    Handel 37

    http://m.wsbtv.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 04:39:36 PM PDT

  •  GA-Sen: Nunn to hit airwaves tomorrow (12+ / 0-)

    NY-9/NJ-10; Show them how to move in a room full of vultures. -- Shawn Carter

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 06:16:48 PM PDT

  •  So I encountered an endangered species today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, redrelic17, sulthernao

    A person who believes that money does equal speech, and that massive campaign contributions in exchange for even more massive payoffs can't be bribery, it's just an advantaged individual or group showing their support. This person also believes that any kind of campaign finance law is a tyrannical regulation of the First Amendment.

    It is exceedingly difficult to debate with this person.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:00:59 PM PDT

    •  Let me guess: Libertarian? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:03:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Correct. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        T'was on an internet forum, and the person's user title was "Queen of Liberty". The Queen of Liberty is claiming that the amount given to campaigns is "too small" to be bribery, and that if it was bribery, there would be more "investment" in politicians that way. This is even after I pointed out that politicians are cheap, and that for a couple thousand in campaign donations, they'll get you a contract or something worth millions.

        And the Liberty Queen is now nonsensically comparing the 3 billion spent in campaigns to Coca-Cola and other companies, claiming that more would be spent to bribe politicians if money=speech really was bribery. It's honestly a little hilarious to see this level of ignorance.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:29:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I do not accept Ayn Rand as my lord and saviour (6+ / 0-)

      Is how I end debates with these dreadful libertarians. Sure I don't win on points, but I win by not having to talk him (it's always a dude) anymore.

      Impractical progressive Democrat.

      by redrelic17 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:45:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GA SEN: Perdue pulls a Braley on Handel (8+ / 0-)

    He attacked her lacking a college degree coming off as a big elitist. Appears to be making waves in the primary wouldn't mind seeing this hurting Perdue because he seems like the strongest GE candidate. Don't think this will play well with the base either since half of them probably lack a college degree or even a HS degree its GA you know.

    Link

    •  This could be a problem for him (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BKGyptian89, LordMike, jj32

      In a GOP primary, this is something that could be real damaging. Those voters care nothing about degrees, in fact, a lot of them are distrustful of education. The upscale, country club Republicans in North Atlanta won't care, but the rural ones will care big time.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:29:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Atlanta metro. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea, sulthernao, ProgMD

      Careful now. The Atlanta metropolitan area has a very high percentage of bachelor's degree-holders. So you can't just rely on lame southern stereotypes.

      Still, Broun will have a field day with this since his base won't take kindly to that kind of elitism. Now if Broun had a decent amount of money it would be better.

      Impractical progressive Democrat.

      by redrelic17 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:57:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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