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Concern over Africa's largest outbreak of Ebola in seven years is moving up to a higher level as the death toll rises and the spread of the epidemic moves into an unusual pattern breaking out at places of multiple origins. Today, I have a survey of several articles released in the last 24 hours.

First, Simon Calder of the Independent, writesWest Africa on high alert after deadly Ebola outbreak kills 83 so far.

The deadliest strain of Ebola virus is spreading through West Africa. Confirmed cases in Guinea, where the outbreak began, now number 127, of whom 83 victims have died. Eight deaths have occurred in the capital, Conakry, with further cases in neighbouring Sierra Leone and Liberia.

The variant responsible is the Zaire strain; this is the most aggressive form of Ebola, and kills nine out of 10 people who contract it.

Médecins Sans Frontières describes the epidemic as “unprecedented”. The medical charity’s project coordinator, Mariano Lugli, said: “We are facing an epidemic of a magnitude never before seen in terms of the distribution of cases in the country."

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The World Health Organization is being more cautious in its descriptions.

Just as the virus is spreading to new parts of Africa, reports of the epidemic are now finally, spreading into mainstream U.S. newspapers. Remember, you've been reading about this epidemic, here, from me, for a week and a half. In The Washington Post, we read Deadly Ebola virus on the move in Africa, describing Ebola moving into urban Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

A deadly Ebola outbreak in urban Guinea, where it had not been seen before, has killed at least 80 people there and in neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. The virus causes severe bleeding and has killed up to 90 percent of the people infected in some past outbreaks. Authorities suspect it was transmitted to humans in Guinea through contaminated bat meat and is now being passed from person to person.

Ebola creates holes in blood vessels, often causing bleeding and shock. It does this by killing endothelial cells, which form the blood vessels’ lining and other partitions in the body. When those cells die, blood and other fluids can leak out. Organs shut down.

The virus replicates very quickly, before most people’s bodies can mount an attack. People often have massive bleeding seven to 10 days after infection.

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Last week, I reported that bats have been discovered to be the reservoir for the virus between epidemic between outbreaks, and I am wondering if the unusual pattern of this outbreak may be evidence that the virus has spread in the bat population through out a wider region. The local fisheries have been collapsing driving local populations to seek alternative food sources, which may be leading to multiple sources of infection rather than the more typical cases of primarily human to human transmission in previous epidemics -- perhaps, implying that that transmission from bats to human may be a relatively low probability event, but that it may now have spread widely through the bat population for some reason. If the prevalence of the Ebola virus in the bat population, and or the region of its spread, has recently grown exponentially, this could offer one possible explanation for this curious pattern. This is just my own hypothesis to try to explain these unusual pockets of outbreaks not seen in previous outbreaks.  

 photo guinea_map30032014_custom-9cffeb7545410f87edcfc475b466fac633fefd55-s6-c30_zps8b6af26d.gif
Ebola Reaches Capital of Guinea, Stirring Fears

DAKAR, Senegal — An outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus in the West African nation of Guinea has reached the crowded capital, Conakry, prompting new fears about its spread, health officials said Tuesday. ...

Now, with 13 cases in a densely populated capital of two million people, health officials say the challenge of containing the outbreak has become more acute. Ebola has killed hundreds in rural Central Africa over the past four decades, but it is unusual for it to reach urban centers. ...

“In Conakry everybody is worried,” said Fodé Abass Bangoura, a lawyer with an office downtown. “People are really preoccupied about this. There is a sort of psychosis about this now. I’m avoiding physical contact with people, and I’m eating at home.”

Linda Poon, of NPR, explains how the largest outbreak of Ebola in Africa in seven years, is following an unusual pattern in, Why Is Guinea's Ebola Outbreak So Unusual?

Doctors Without Borders has called the current outbreak of the in Guinea "unprecedented" — not because of the number of victims (so far at least 78 have died) but because the disease has traveled to various parts of the country. The (which includes the capital city of Conakry) is at least unusual, the World Health Organization agrees, and presents more challenges than usual to the medical team seeking to contain the virus.

To learn more, we spoke with Esther Sterk, a tropical medicine adviser for . She's been on the ground during past Ebola outbreaks in Africa and, from her base in Geneva, is helping coordinate efforts to quash this one. Sterk believes the infection may have spread more than usual because it's easy for people to travel from place to place in Guinea, including from the southern part of the country (where the first cases were reported) to the capital. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
The recent Ebola outbreak started in southern Guinea, but has spread. Authorities have recorded 122 suspected cases so far and 78 deaths.

The recent Ebola outbreak started in southern Guinea, but has spread. Authorities have recorded 122 suspected cases so far and 78 deaths.

 photo bats_zps4b16c36e.jpgLast week I reported bats have been identified as the reservoir for the ebola virus

Concern is escalating in the international community as the virus continues to spread.  

Saudi Arabia suspends visas over Guinea Ebola outbreak:
Visas suspended for Muslim pilgrims from Guinea and Liberia due to contagious nature of deadly disease

The Saudi health ministry recommended the measure "due to the danger of the disease and its highly contagious" nature, the state news agency SPA reported.

The World Health Organisation has said it is not recommending travel or trade restrictions to Guinea, Liberia or Sierra Leone, which has reported suspected cases of Ebola, based on information currently available.

Muslims perform the hajj pilgrimage to the Saudi city of Mecca once a year, but they can make the minor umrah pilgrimage to the kingdom all year round.

The World Health Organization, and Doctors Without Borders has established containment perimeters with government health in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Senegal.

What we would do without the WHO and Doctors Without Borders, and our own CDC? Global epidemics are not challenges best left to the for-profit sector.

11:58 AM PT: May I call your attention to my April Fool's post yesterday adapting Makos's "Crashing the Gates" books to write" "Crashing the Estates: The Rise of Corporate Powered Politics and The Daily Kochs", about a grass roots movement of billionaires banding together to replace democracy with oligarchy using their new website "The Daily Kochs." Those who've read it say its pretty funny.

And, may we have an NPR moment folks. This afternoon's recent rec recommendation board was sad people. I think the mobile apps is set up to bypass Recent Apps and go Community instead. So excellent posts by non Front Pagers are languishing with 2, 5, or 7 posts. If we want to keep and cultivate a diverse group of emerging writers here we should encourage them by tipping and recommending their efforts.

You wouldn't eat out without tipping the wait staff, would you. Jotter's reports indicate that of the 143 people, or so who posted yesterday, only about 60 rec'd even one other post even though 142 of them commented in other posts. Are these grass roots values, or elitist values? I mean this in the nicest possible way.

 

12:55 PM PT: I had to take my girlfriend to the doctor. She is ok, now.  I see some corrections I'd like to make but I am on my IPhone, which is down to 10 percent power. Could one of our SciTech or Ebola teams please help moderate in my absence?. Maybe Wisper is around? I should be back in two hours, or so. Boston traffic is extra bad today.  I should have thought about this before getting involved with reality.
 Sorry


4:00 PM PT: I'm baaaack!  Someone here a few years told me to get a life, so I got back with my significant other of 10 years, last after a year. During that off year, of 2012, election year,  I published 400 posts. Then, when we got back together, I didn't post anything for a 1.25 years. Don't let this happen to you! These relationship things can soak up a lot of time. Anyway, she's fine, now and I made some minor word-smithing corrections to post and am responding to comments. Sorry for my absence. As most of you know, I try to be extensively engaged with my readers in my posts. Thanks for your patience.  

4:13 PM PT: bkamr brings up the important issues of illegal imports of African bushmeat into Europe and I responded that he is not the only one concerned about this. Saudi Arabia's cancellation of visas to countries in the West Africa region is likely just the first of many such reactions we will soon see.

Sadly, we may soon see an over reaction shutting down much trade from Africa as well as a major drop off of tourism, trade and other travel.

No one has written about it yet, but if health authorities do not get this epidemic contained PDQ, which is looking increasingly unlikely, the whole region, and perhaps continent of Africa may suffer an economic disaster even bigger than this immediate health disaster.

If there is sufficient interest I may form a special interest group to follow this.

I'm not sure if it should be just Ebola, of Global Epidemics, Food Supply, and other Environmental and Health Issues? What do people think?

4:27 PM PT: Please help me rally support for our emerging non-Front Page writers here at Daily Kos. You all have an infinite number of Tips and Recs that cost you nothing, and our writers get so happy, encouraged, and motivated rwhen you acknowledge that many of us work even harder to make Daily Kos, the Democratic Party, progressive causes, our country, and our world a better place.

So, please dig deep, and give our volunteer Kossacks a little love. Come on, you know you really want to. Let that cold hearted veneer that somehow settled in during this harsh winter melt off and go out and find an emerging lonely writer here who is doing promising work and give them an internet hug. You'll feel so much bettter! We all will. Do it now Kossack.

Because "in the end. The the love you take is equal to the love, you make!?" Follow the link for one of the best Beatles song ever, and one of the best HoundDog pep rallys and calls to action ever as well. Hey, I should have been a cheer leader.

Striving towards a more nurturing, generous, supportive, fun, and successful writing culture (poll)

Originally posted to SciTech on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 11:48 AM PDT.

Also republished by Black Kos community.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This is getting scary (26+ / 0-)

    The only good news is that researchers have made progress in understanding the EBOV and related filovirus (like Marburg) transmission. It appears a mutation in some humans makes them immune to the disease and in laboratory experiments it has been possible to block the virus from infecting healthy cells.

    But that's precious little use in the here and now.

    Food processed to be nothing more than simple starches with two dozen flavorings and stabilizers added to make it appear to be food isn't "food". It's "feed" -- what you give to livestock to fatten them up for slaughter.

    by ontheleftcoast on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:03:56 PM PDT

  •  This is very bad news (19+ / 0-)

    Human populations have been expanding faster in Africa  than on other continents causing more stress on the natural environment resulting in things like collapsing fisheries.

     

    The local fisheries have been collapsing driving local populations to seek alternative food sources, which may be leading to multiple sources of infection rather than the unique cases of primarily human to human transmission in previous epidemics.

    "If Wall Street paid a tax on every “game” they run, we would get enough revenue to run the government on." ~ Will Rogers

    by Lefty Coaster on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:23:03 PM PDT

  •  thanks for this diary. (12+ / 0-)

    I was curious and could not find a reference to exactly how the virus enters the body--I thought this might also interest people. wiki

  •  AllAfrica has quite a few video news (13+ / 0-)

    "If you're in a coalition and you're comfortable, you know it's not a broad enough coalition." Dr. Bernice Johnson Reagon

    by Denise Oliver Velez on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:36:41 PM PDT

    •  Thanks Denise. And, thank for you rec and (5+ / 0-)

      commenting. You are one of the Front Pagers who has been providing support for emerging second and third tier writers here for a long time. We notice and appreciate it.

      Did you see the post I made last week, entitled something like "Striving for a more positive, nurturing,  and successful writing culture here at Daily Kos?" I'm going to republish it soon.

      A bunch of us non Front Page volunteer writers have the impression that it has become much harder to get attention in the form of recs and comments in the last month and are trying to figure out what is going on. I've been trying to encourage people to be more generous with recs, tips, and comments noting that everyone here more than a week has an infinite supply.

      And, now jotter has confirmed that of the 140 or so regular daily posters here, about 80 do not find even one post other than their own worth of a rec!?!?

      I'm not trying to stir things up, and I'm not calling out names, however, this seems like one of those opportune moments, what does Stephen Covey call them? - "teachable moments" - to notice and congratulate you for leading the way in the direction it ought to be.

      So, once again, thanks a bunch, and Keep on Truckin,' sister!  In a moment I'll put a link to it under this comment.

      And, if you Front Pagers have a secret clubhouse, like us First Pagers do, (Folks on the first pages of our Most Recommend, Prolific, Followed, Published This Month, etc.) you might mention while I'm not going to notice that some of them haven't recommended any one else posts for half of week, I do not have the power to stop other people from noticing. On a site devoted to giving voice to the people in a broad based grass roots egalitarian uprising of participation, that could be embarrassing to some, I suspect. And, I mean this in the nicest possible way, as my Mom always would say. :-)

      Cheers, and thanks again for you support.

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:07:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I did not see that diary - but will (0+ / 0-)

        go back and read when I get home from school.

        I wish I had more hours in the day to read and rec diaries - trying to keep up with publishing and republishing from groups, and tending to comments in my own diaries and in Black Kos takes up a lot of puter time - I won't complain - I have more time at home than many folks do - due to health reasons - but will encourage more people to do more rec'ing.

        We have no secret clubhouse that I know of (I think we need a secret decoder ring though -heh)- we do have deadlines and editors who do yeomanlike work just managing the input/output.

        Hugs!

        "If you're in a coalition and you're comfortable, you know it's not a broad enough coalition." Dr. Bernice Johnson Reagon

        by Denise Oliver Velez on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 04:51:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hey, don't blame me: (11+ / 0-)

    I rec a lot of diaries. Probably too many, just b/c I like them. Also tip a lot.

    Thanks, btw, for this very scary diary. T&R, natch.

    English usage is sometimes more than mere taste, judgment and education - sometimes it's sheer luck, like getting across the street. E. B. White

    by Youffraita on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 12:38:58 PM PDT

    •  I'd never blame you for anything Youffraita. I'm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Onomastic

      tempted to say "you are a total sweetheart" but that might create gender confusions for one or both of us." I've sort of assumed you are female but I"m not sure. Sorry, I'm sort of an idiot.

      I guess you could be a male sweetheart. Ok, you are a sweetheart as far as rec, tips and comments go either way.

      I appreciate your support.

      There is no way to rec too many diaries, IMO.

      Sometimes, I hear the argument, "I only rec posts that I would like to see on the Big Rec board," as if there is a danger that if we all doubled the number of recs we give we would be in jeopardy of crashing the quality of the rec board.

      Wake up folks!  There would still only be 10 spots on the top 10 Rec spots. No lower quality posts would get in as the average number of post would have twice as many posts.

      And, for those of you with math skill beyond ..... well, let's be nice. The large of large numbers says if we have twice as many people voting, and our twice as many votes, we are more likely to have a more representative sampling of the population and less likely to get sampling error where a lower quality post gets on the REC board because of accidental, or "cliche" voting.  

      So, you are certainly in the "Circle of Honer and Glory" Youffraita. You are hear-by given  "HoundDog Get Out Of "The Circle of Shame Free Golden Pass," right here for all of your great support for so many of our authors here that I have personally witnessed lo these many years.

      This entitles the bearer to be automatically be excused for a wide variety of transgressions on a one time basis, so save it up for something big.

      Keep up the good work my friend, or as I like to say "Keep on Truckin'" which sort of means the same thing but does not discriminate against the unemployed, or otherwise oriented. Ask you grandparents about it, and they will explain it it to you unless they were Republicans, or overly sheltered in the 60s.

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:23:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  about that recciing (4+ / 0-)

        ok, I apologize if that's not a word.  But I use an older browser most of the time and can't rec without going through a lot of hassle.  And I can't rec on my phone, either.  So I have to use firefox which isn't really my first choice.  Don't know if that's an issue for other folks, but I bet that I"m not the only one.

        sometimes the dragon wins

        by kathy in ga on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:31:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A funny aside along that line kathy. I call it (0+ / 0-)

          rec'cing as well. Meteor Blades has recommended about 6 of my posts in the last week or two which is cool. So I've mentioned it to Gina, like, "Hey, Meteor Blades, just 'rec'd another one of my posts."

          She thought I was saying "wrecked."

          So she kept asking me, "why does he keep doing that?"

          And, I'd say, "I don't know," or "I have no friggin clue," to be modest," rather than, say, "Well, probably because, they were among  the best posts on the whole damn site!" which might sound a little conceited and narcissistic, something she already suspects might be the case with me, so I'm playing it "low profile" if you know what I mean.

          So, every time this happened she'd bring me a treat from our local Breugers Bagel place which I figured was a celebration that I'm finally getting some of those "Ivory Tower" Front Pagers to notice my writing, which I figured would sort of be hard not to notice by now, but go figure. Most haven't got a clue that I'm here, after nine and half years,  from what you can tell from recs, tips, or comments, but that's a different story.

          Anyhow, it turns, out she though I was saying MB was "wrecking" my posts, so she thinks he is some terrible bully, rather than the kindest most generous fellow and Front Pagers, on the site, so she was bringing me treats as consolation - sympathy treats. I only figured it out when she finally asked in exasperation, "well why do you keep going back there if they keep picking on you. They are just about of nasty bullies who are probably jealous!"

          Which was double funny, because she hates that I spend so much time posting here and even sometimes hides my computer so I'll watch the Bates Motel, or other programs with her.

          So, I'm cooling with "reccing" things kathie, but make sure your spouse knows your not in here busting the place up and is not going to have to come down and bail you out of jail.

          Cheers.    

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:10:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  This is definitely my issue (0+ / 0-)

          My reccing of diaries and comments has plummeted in the past couple months because I mostly get on DKos via my phone, and it's really, really hard to rec on it.

          Time is of no account with great thoughts, which are as fresh to-day as when they first passed through their authors' minds ages ago. - Samuel Smiles

          by moviemeister76 on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 03:08:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I even rec diaries I disagree with (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Onomastic, nchristine, HoundDog

      If I think the discussion is worth having, and the author is being at least moderately respectful of different opinions.

  •  just to reaffrirm- the bat meat is what is causing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, Joieau, radical simplicity

    the disease to remain alive(?)-for want of the right phrase- while it does pass from human to human . so is this an air borne-but if bat meat is how it started up- that is not air borne. i am really confused and lack biology skills to understand this this.

    and this is scary. thanks.

    i try to tip and rec all diaries that i think need to be seen. i will try harder

    •  Ebola generally requires body fluid contact (11+ / 0-)

      Although an experiment back in 2012 (http://www.bbc.com/...) showed that it may be airborne in some cases, but that is not likely a major factor in the spread of the disease right now.

      This is likely caused by the consumption of infected foods (bats, monkeys, etc), with some human to human spread via infected bodily fluids.

      IANAV(irologist)

      "He who fights monsters should see to it that he himself does not become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you."

      by Hayate Yagami on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:03:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That many people in the region (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        live1, HoundDog

        eat bats? Now, don't get me wrong - I could eat just about anything if I would starve if I didn't, but... bats? Rats would seem much plumper and 'jucier', and I'm pretty sure cities have plenty that are far easier to get to than bats. Who can (after all) fly.

        Something sure seems strange about the pattern of spread. Hope they get a good handle on it quick.

        There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves. - Will Rogers

        by Joieau on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:48:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  rats -i can see eating. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Joieau, HoundDog
          •  I've been ovo-lacto vegetarian (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog

            for more than 40 years. But I have a choice, access to stocked-full megagroceries here in the lap of Amerikan Middle (almost) class abundance. And I grow a lot of my own. Might nibble some turkey on Thanksgiving, grilled trout whenever I can get it, but generally I go many months without eating any once-living critters.

            But I live in your basic backwoods wilderness. I've thought about it, and yeah. I could eat snakes, lizards, groundhogs, rabbits, wild turkeys, even deer if I had to in order to stay alive. But even that's just through the winter. In the rest of the year there's plenty of veggie stuff to eat out there. Including kudzu, which most people don't know is one of the higher protein, vitamin-packed legumous leafy-stuff that's much more palatable (and less apt to cause diarrhea) than poke. Jerusalem artichokes, ground nuts, bamboo shoots, cattails, acorns, wild amaranth, more fruits than you can shake a stick at...

            But I could eat a fat timber rattler, no problem.

            There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves. - Will Rogers

            by Joieau on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:51:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  And compared to rats, bats (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog, drmah

            seem mighty bony and meat-skimpy. Probably tough too, takes a lot of muscles to fly if you're a mammal. Even squirrels would offer more for the discriminating diner!

            There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves. - Will Rogers

            by Joieau on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:54:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Bats look like rats with wings to me. I'm not fond (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Joieau, sandbox

              of them.

              "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

              by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:16:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe they should try to eradicate (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                HoundDog, Joieau

                bats

                •  But, then some unexpected thing would happen (0+ / 0-)

                  they eat a lot of insects. Someone just told me hey are great pollinators.

                  "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

                  by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 10:55:39 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I've got nothing big against bats. (0+ / 0-)

                  They eat their weight in flying insects nightly, don't make a nuisance of themselves during the day, etc., etc. I've even thought about building bat boxes on poles out and about, hoping they'd stop nesting in my inaccessible attic. So far haven't, though.

                  We got some kind of unusual migrating bat flock last spring, and I see that they may be back. Much bigger than our normal bats, absolutely intent on nesting under the siding to the point that I've had to spray expando-foam and even board up access. They carried Valley Fever, which one of the dogs managed to get. Thought for sure we'd lose him, he was very close to death by late fall. Vet finally figured out what it was - had to send a test off, as it's a desert virus spread by bats, not at all normal here in the southern Appalachians - and got the right medicine. Poor dog had lost so much weight we thought we might lose him anyway, vet told me to try chicken soup. Your basic cheap chicken cuts boiled down, remove the bones, add rice, some chopped potatoes, skip the salt and herbs. Now the dog is a Big Believer in chicken rice soup, always asks for it!

                  There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves. - Will Rogers

                  by Joieau on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 09:12:06 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Bats are the reservoir -- think carriers of the (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          live1, Joieau, Hayate Yagami, HoundDog

          disease.  Primates (monkey, ape, mankind) can develop the disease.  People hunt, prepare, sell, trade, eat monkey or ape meat and get sick.  It can spread from primate to primate through the exchange of bodily fluids.  

          I'm not clear, yet, if it can spread via airborne droplets like from a sneeze, and how long the virus is viable on a surface. Anyone? Do we have answers to these 2 questions?  

          Off to do some research on this.

          Plutocracy (noun) Greek ploutokratia, from ploutos wealth; 1) government by the wealthy; 2) 21st c. U.S.A.; 3) 22nd c. The World

          by bkamr on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:20:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  They do now (7+ / 0-)

          Fisheries have been failing (thanks to massive illegal commercial fishing from Western and Asian companies), and fish was the primary meat source in the country.

          In addition, a number of the cases appear to have resulted from funerals of people who died from the disease, thanks to a cultural norm of touching the deceased to show affection. Alas, due to cellular breakdown, the skin of decedents is generally coated in infected fluids.

          •  Can the Physicians Without Borders (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Hayate Yagami, HoundDog

            and CDC/in-country ops not somehow educate these people about the dangers of contracting a 90% fatal ebola? I mean, really. These are human beings, not lemurs or rodents. They have some basic skills and smarts.

            And this kind of 'custom' is still practiced in cities? Something's peculiar here. Can't put my finger on it...

            There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves. - Will Rogers

            by Joieau on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:44:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The first outbreak was in the 70s and yet it's (3+ / 0-)

              very hard to change strong cultural habits handed down for generations.

              But also, this is very contagious. Medical personal who bravely tend the sick and those who handle the dead are at high risk, especially if first world infection control equipment and supplies are not on hand immediately.

              Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

              by Catskill Julie on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:44:19 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Please see the tasty Recipe for Bat Soup I (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Joieau

          retrieved for live1 Joieau. You might want to change your mind before Ebola spread to our bats here, and they ban consumption like they have in Guinea.

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:12:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Its not just bats (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Joieau

          we think bats are the main reservoir but its also been found in animals as diverse as antelope.

          We've never seen symptoms in anything other then primates.

          Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

          by Wisper on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:46:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I've read reports where (14+ / 0-)

      people are being advised not to shake hands, kiss or have sex. One of the problems with this strain seems to be a long incubation time -- one example was a man who showed no symptoms until 60 days after contact with an infected person. Previous strains killed their victims quickly, which meant it killed its host essentially too fast to maintain a pandemic. A slowed incubation is what makes this outbreak so scary. One infected person on an international flight can infect the entire world indirectly.

      I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires. - Susan B. Anthony

      by pajoly on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:17:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My understanding is that it is not an airborne (6+ / 0-)

      virus.  To get it you must be exposed to fluids, i.e.  blood or saliva, from an infected source.  Bat or human in this case.

      Sooner or later the wealthy take such a large piece of the pie that the poor are left with nothing to eat but the rich - Terrell Davis on Twitter

      by coloradocomet on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:28:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, it's the reservoir (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bkamr, Onomastic, HoundDog

      Ebola isn't deadly to bats, so they can pass it on from generation to generation, keeping it alive in perpetuity.

      •  Do we know if the bats shed it in urine or feces? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog, radical simplicity

        And, how long it would be viable in that form?

        Plutocracy (noun) Greek ploutokratia, from ploutos wealth; 1) government by the wealthy; 2) 21st c. U.S.A.; 3) 22nd c. The World

        by bkamr on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:44:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Excellent question, to which I do not know the (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bkamr, radical simplicity

          answer bkamr. It is now on the top of my research list along with your last most excellent question about illegal  game imports to Europe.

          Your incisive intellect has stimulated much forward thinking here bkamr. Please tell us what else you are thinking about and what other questions are on your mind.

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 04:31:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Micro major. I have quite a few questions and (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog

            I'm not finding many answers to them, as yet.  Maybe you've run across some answers.

            I'm wondering how are monkeys and apes are contracting it from the bats?  It could be from a bite (bat to primate) or from chimps hunting or scavenging (will chimps eat carrion?) bat meat ... with people mainly coming into contact with the virus through primate bushmeat.

            This would seem to fit with the prior outbreaks, and the new movement to the coasts could be part of the illegal bushmeat trade.  This would be problematic, but there'd be a way to get this under control since it would mainly still be spread through direct contact.

            Public education that you could DIE a horrible death, fast ought to go a long way toward shutting down the demand for the illegal meat among the European elites.  Kill the demand and go after the supply chains in Africa.

            However, if bats shed it in urine or feces, and the virus developed even just a little surface viability in these substances, we'd have a serouisly problematic scenario. Primates (including us) could come into contact just from being in trees or under trees with infected bat populations.

            If it survives in saliva and sweat, is it viable in water?

            Are there any cave systems near the human outbreak centers?

            It's not like we could easily do mass kills like they did with domestic fowl, and how dependent are ecosystems in the regions on bats as pollinators?  Can we really afford to kill off bats given their growing importance as pollinators due to bee losses?  

            How long are the current people carrying the virus before they are showing symptoms, and what is the window for a person being contagious?

            Any answers to any questions would be appreciated, and now that dinner is over, I'll be searching the web.

             

            Plutocracy (noun) Greek ploutokratia, from ploutos wealth; 1) government by the wealthy; 2) 21st c. U.S.A.; 3) 22nd c. The World

            by bkamr on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:37:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  we only just recently learned abot the bats (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoundDog, bkamr

              The reservoir used to be a complete mystery.  But we've also seen Ebola in animals like Antelope and any number of monkeys.

              The general theory is no, urine and fecal exposure wont do it.  The thought is that it is exposure to body fluids (blood, tissue, etc) into any kind of open wound on the human.

              This is an active area of research.

              Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

              by Wisper on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:51:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I suspect you've identified two ways monkes and (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              celticshel, radical simplicity

              other primates are getting it. One from eating dead bats on the ground. If they are hungry enough. And, more likely Bat feces and urine on the trees and leaves where monkeys live through out the day and eat. Also, on fruit and other monkey food.

              Also, now that I realize how easy it would be for monkeys and other tree dwelling animals to get infected I believe we will learn that the more likely, or common transmission vector was from bats to primates, and other animals, and then from these animals to humans.

              Because the bat soup that has been decribed in the lower class beer halls is boiled for many hours down to a mush and heavily peppered so I suspect the virus might be killed and this isn't really that popular, and my understanding is it is consumed by primarily by the very poor.

              The incubation time from infection to developing symptoms ranges from 2 to 21 days, with death occurring then quickly I believe within two days.

              I do not know about cave systems in the regions, nor survivability of the virus in water.

              I'm sure illegal imports of bushmeat to Europe will drop off quickly. A lot of these kinds of black market trades are actually known about, but bribery gets them through customs. But, once higher up decide to really crack down, they can put a stop to it.

              Plus as you note, As knowledge and fear of this epidemic spread, demand will fall off quickly.

              Additionally, just as Saudi Arabia canceled Visa, many countries will be cancelling trade and denying port entry from ships coming from these regions.

              Even beyond that, can we not also anticipate that clever cargo boat operators anticipating this will not even bother to take take their ships into port of afflicted areas to load potentially infected bushmeat for fear of being infected themselves or having their boats locked up in quarentine.

              Holy Smokes it sure is a pleasure talking with you bkamr. Your mind is like a sponge for knowledge and a coiled tiger of a curious cat of brilliant questions.

              You must still be young as your mind has the rare and quick vibrancy of youth. It is an easy prediction that you will be enormously successful at whatever you do as long as you stay focused and disciplined. One challenge for young people as talented as yourself, is that easy success at any area you try sometimes leads to spreading too thin.

              Keeping a broad understanding of many areas provides great perspective, AND make sure you choose you most favorite strong suites to concentrate on with discipline to cultivate a superior knowledge of and skill set around.

              With a combination of a commanding mastery of your core discipline and a broad overview you will be able to open many doorways to success.

              Please visit my posts as frequently as you can, as you have taught me at least a dozen valuable lessons just in this one evening. It is a rare pleasure to encounter a mind as nimble and curious as yours.

              Cheers best wishes with your studies.
               

              "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

              by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:47:07 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Hanta Virus Is Spread In Dried Rodent Urine (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoundDog, bkamr

          ....it's another very deadly RNA virus in the American Southwest.  But it does not spread human to human.

          The interesting thing is that rodent urine is really corrosive.

          But (and all together now) bats aren't rodents!

          Men are so necessarily mad, that not to be mad would amount to another form of madness. -Pascal

          by bernardpliers on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:06:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I've read about this. Every now and then it gets (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bkamr, radical simplicity

            stirred up an ancient barns. Our out in deserts by campers.

            Viruses scare the stew right out of me. A few months ago, I reported the largest virus ever found so far, was revived out of glacier or tudra  ice from 30,000 years ago melting from 30,000.

            It was a phage, which means it feeds on bacteria, but even still I was thinking, WTH are these scientist thinking? "Let sleeping viruses lie" so to speak.

            If these ice sheets melt could we not be releasing viruses that disappeared ages ago, which we've lost resistance too?

            "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

            by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:27:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes. However, I'd be more concerned about a (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoundDog, radical simplicity

              bacteria or virus having a voracious appetite for something critical in the food chain like nitrobacter or phyloplankton and them not having any natural predators.  

              Plutocracy (noun) Greek ploutokratia, from ploutos wealth; 1) government by the wealthy; 2) 21st c. U.S.A.; 3) 22nd c. The World

              by bkamr on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:41:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Have they ever isolated it from mosquitos? I (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoundDog

              keep coming back to how is it getting from bats to primates?

              Plutocracy (noun) Greek ploutokratia, from ploutos wealth; 1) government by the wealthy; 2) 21st c. U.S.A.; 3) 22nd c. The World

              by bkamr on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:48:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't know. Your idea of bats peeing and pooping (0+ / 0-)

                in the trees and on the primate food, and perhaps even dying and being eaten as carrion seem to be most likely to me.

                Or perhaps, if monkeys and other primate do not eat carrion, perhaps, some other creature does, such a rat, they catch it and monkeys eat them and catch it.

                My understanding is most bats eat insects, so bats are going to be spending a lot of times flitting around in the treetop canopy just above the primate continuously peeing and pooping directly on them, as well as on their food.

                Plus, if their are other predatory birds that eat bats, such as owls, or hawks, the spillage blood may fall down on the monkeys, infecting them.

                It doesn't have to be a common event as these outbreaks are rare.

                We haven't had one in 7 years. So either this virus is usually very rare in bats, or the transmission from bats to primates, or from primates to humans, and/or from humans to humans is rare or inefficient.

                Otherwise, it wouldn't it be happening with far greater frequency?

                If this virus had spread widely throughout the bad population in the whole West African regions and was just jumping across to primate and humans, this transmission would have to have happened quickly and recently, if transmission were common.

                Another good question is what causes transmission in bats?

                Scientists must be having a "field day" literally out there. Almost makes me wish I were a biologist out there in the jungle. With some really well fitting Hazardous Material suits and bat repellent. lol

                "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

                by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:57:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Bat guano as fertilizer... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoundDog

          Not sure how prevalent that practice is in the area, but the thought is enough to give me chills if the virus can withstand sunlight/air exposure for very long.  Just spreading the fertilizer could be enough for transmission, maybe.

          Dream as if you'll live forever, live as if you'll die today. -- James Dean

          by celticshel on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:34:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The virus apparently can live in bats without (5+ / 0-)

      affecting them, answering the mystery "where does the virus hide between outbreaks." It has been popping up about every decade or so since the early 1970s and quickly burns itself out quickly killing off its victims.

      So, how does a virus which kill off its victims so quickly hang around to infect people 10 years later. Scientists have looked in moneys, apes, birds, etc, and haven't found it until last week, because they could pinpoint where to look.

      It is not air-borne, thank God, NOT air- borne, or we would all be in big trouble and the whole continent would be sealed off and all flight canceled and world in a panic.

      It requires contact with fluids from an infected persons, or consumption of infected game meat.

      By the way, consumption of bats is not a good idea anyway. Five strains of Ebola exist, and non of the deadly strains are in North America. We had an outbreak of the non-lethal Reston strain that escaped from a lab in Reston Virgina.

      For some reason, I do not understand, bats are one of thte most zoonotically infectious animals around, meaning they transmit viruses between species more aggressively than almost any other. See late last week the post I did announcing bats were the reservoir.

      For gallows humor, I posted a tasty recipe for bat soup with close up pictures of fruit bats floating in the soup to tease readers, (because that's how I roll live1. "Ask me not why, but why not?) But at the top of the recipe I put up a warning to readers to please be careful to have their bats checked for the following diseases often carried by North American bats and it went on for five lines, including rabies, brain fever, blood lesions, ... it was ghastly.

      I declared I was allergic to bats, but asked in a poll how many were going to try out what might be their last chance to try out Bat Soup before Ebola spreads to our bats here. 37% said they wouldn't eat bat for a millions dollars, butt 6% said they would try it at the annual Daily Kos convention for fund raising.

      Do you folks see the kind of fun you are missing by not following The HoundDog!  Please, just select that little heart and you can get these kinds of posts like this recipe for Bat Soup delivered to your mail box each morning.  

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:39:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  why, oh why did i not follow you sooner (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Onomastic, HoundDog

        i missed the bat soup.

        •  See, that's what I'm talting about live1. Maybe I (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          live1

          should go fetch that for you as a special treat?

          It' looks sort of dreadful even without thinking about the several dozen deadly infectious diseases that can be carried by bats.

          Plus, to make it worse, this recipe I found from 1941, in a book that is our of print now, talked about how affectionate Fruit Bats and what great pets they make. Although the author didn't say it exactly, it was like she was saying, "hey theses fruit bats make great pets, and then when you are tired of playing with them, you can make this great tasty soup out of them!" I'm not kidding!

          Double-Plus, she says don't skin, or gut them but boil them up whole, with all their hair still on, and she has close-up pictures these dreadful pictures of bats floating in these big bowls of soup!

          At first, I figured she was just off of her rocker, like some Mortisha (of the Adams family, did I spell that right?) But, then I realized, she must be doing this on purpose to punk all these super straight people around her. She was probably like some really early version of a Goth Girl, playing mind games on this recipe book guy, or the local newspaper folks after coming back from her trip from Malaysia.

          I've always been strangely attracted to really smart women who are a bit "off-beat" and different, who "march to the beat of a different" drummer.

          So that perhaps, explains why I put the recipe in the second part of this ghastly epidemic story, even though its in really poor taste at the highest level. When we have mass death at such terrible and dreadful levels, but that is important for us to stay engaged in, I find it helps me to create interludes of a kind of "Falstaff" character of comic relief, or Gallows humor to get us through it.

          Otherwise, my brain shuts down, and I just go off and spend the evening in pootie and woozle posts, or watch football on TV.  

          But, this is part of why I posted and found it funny. This was 1941. I don't know how old you are, but can you image how repressive culture was back then, but she may have been an early version of The HoundDog. Now I have to go bring it here for you.

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 04:48:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Here it is live1 just for you. BTW That should (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          live1

          Been, that's what I'm talking about.

          Bats discovered to be transmission vector in largest outbreak of Ebola in Africa in seven years

          photo bats_zps4b16c36e.jpg

          The BBC is reporting that scientists have finally discovered that bats are the hidden reservoir and transmission vector for spreading Ebola, as reported, in Guinea Ebola outbreak: Bat-eating banned to curb virus.

          Guinea has banned the sale and consumption of bats to prevent the spread of the deadly Ebola virus, its health minister has said. ... Bats, a local delicacy, appeared to be the "main agents" for the Ebola outbreak in the south, Rene Lamah said.

          Sixty-two people have now been killed by the virus in Guinea, with suspected cases reported in neighbouring Liberia and Sierra Leone. ... Ebola is spread by close contact. There is no known cure or vaccine. ... It kills between 25% and 90% of victims, depending on the strain of the virus, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

          People who eat the animals often boil them into a sort of spicy pepper soup, our correspondent says. The soup is sold in village stores where people gather to drink alcohol. ... Other ways of preparing the bats to eat include drying them over a fire.

          The total number of deaths had reached 62 by Tuesday. Ebola is spread by contact with bodily fluids, or by touching an object recently touched by an infected person. The virus attacks the endothelial cells of the blood vessels. It takes 2 to 21 days from infection to come down with symptoms and people then can die withing days.

          Two quarantine zones have been set up in southern Guinea to try to contain the outbreak. Mediecins Sans Fronieres, the World Health Organization, are providing assistance to local governments in trying to contain the epidemic.

           photo bats2_zps84ee12cc.jpg

          The discovery of the bat vector has solved a puzzle that has baffled science for decades because Ebola kills off it victims so quickly it disappears for long periods so we have never known where its reservoir was. While hosting the virus the bat shows no symptoms of the disease. Livescience reports, Bat Soup Blamed as Deadly Ebola Virus Spreads.

          "We discovered the vector [infectious] agent of the Ebola virus is the bat," Remy Lamah, the country’s health minister, told Bloomberg News. "We sent messages everywhere to announce the ban. People must even avoid consumption of rats and monkeys. They are very dangerous animals."

          Bats are reported to be quite tasty when toasted over an open grill, or boiled down into a think and spicy soup with peppers. Mmm, mmm, good! I'm getting hungry. If it weren't for my big diet weigh in tomorrow I'd have some now. I'm down 7 pounds for the month, and don't want to go on a binge. Below the fold I offer one old American favorite bat soup recipe for the more adventuress Kossacks, although you may want to read the warning below first.


          Though many animals can spread disease, bats have come under increased scientific scrutiny in recent years for their uncanny ability to host "zoonotic" viruses, that is, viruses that readily make the jump from one species to another.

          "There seems to be something different about bats in terms of being able to host zoonotic infections," David Hayman, a wildlife epidemiologist at Colorado State University, told LiveScience in a 2013 interview.

          The flying mammals are reservoirs for more than 60 viruses that can infect humans, and host more viruses per species than even rodents.

          In addition to the Ebola virus, rabies, histoplasmosis, SARS, Nipah (which causes deadly brain fevers), Hendra (a lethal respiratory disease), Marburg, Lyssaviruses and other diseases can be spread by bats, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

          One disappointing aspect of these articles is that scientist never explain to us why the custom of eating these tasty bat delicacies never spread to Europe, and the United States, leaving the reader with a puzzled empty feeling. But don't worry, to fill up that emptiness I found an American recipe for a delicious bat soup from an out of print soup. This might be your last chance to have it before it gets banned here too. Oddly, the author, and all of her descendents, as well as children, and publisher have all pasted on, but Ted Taylor and Fred Peters found an old copy in the New York Library which I've put below the fold. (Humor alert!)  

           photo batsoup_zpse47b4c19.jpg

          Here's a tasty recipe for Fruit Bat Soup from  "The New York Times Natural Foods Cookbook" by Jean Hewitt (c) 1971. (Out of Print)  Courtesy of Ted Taylor who says fruit bats are also known as Flying Foxes who are affectionate little creatures who make great pets, with the advantage that you can make a tasty soup with them when you done playing.

          Fruit Bat Soup</>

           3 Fruit bats, well washed but neither skinned nor eviscerated,
          Water
          1 tb Finely sliced fresh ginger,
          1 lg Onion, quartered,

          The following is a genuine recipe from Micronesia. Fruit bats, or flying foxes, are furry, fruit and nectar eating bats about the size of small rabbits. The make very affectionate pets.

          Sea salt to taste, Chopped scallions, Soy sauce and/or coconut cream.

          1. Place the bats in a large kettle and add water to cover, the ginger, onion, and salt. Bring to the boil and cook for 40 minutes. Strain broth into a second kettle.

          2. Take the bats, skin them and discard the skin. Remove meat from the bones and return meat, and any of the viscera you fancy, to the broth. Heat.

          3. Serve liberally sprinkled with scallions and further seasoned with soy sauce and/or coconut cream.

          Yield: 4 servings.

          Mmmm, mmm! That looks like some mighty fine eating there. Unfortunately, I'm allergic to bats, but please write in and let me know how it tastes. Just remember to have your bats checked for Ebola virus, rabies, histoplasmosis, SARS, Nipah (which causes deadly brain fevers), Hendra (a lethal respiratory disease), Marburg, Lyssaviruses first. Enjoy!.

          7:43 AM PT: May I call your attention to what I believe to be an important proposal for a more positive and energetic approach to supporting and appreciating our Daily Kos volunteer writers and readers who comment in  

          Striving towards a more nurturing, generous, supportive, fun, and successful writing culture (poll)

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:29:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  that was a TERRIBLE reply!!!!!! :) (0+ / 0-)

            yuck-a thousand times-YUK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
            and when done playing w/them i most probably wont be thinking of making soup!

            in the future be more careful in my wishes.

            i can imagine why that cookbook is out of print...

      •  Okay, not airborne. Good. Do we know how long (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog

        it takes before the disease becomes debilitating, and are people infectious before that point?

        Plutocracy (noun) Greek ploutokratia, from ploutos wealth; 1) government by the wealthy; 2) 21st c. U.S.A.; 3) 22nd c. The World

        by bkamr on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:48:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Delay from infection to conspicous symptons (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bkamr, drmah

          is 2 to 21 days, with death coming usually within  2 days with the Zaire strain, which we are seeing here, which is the most deadly and has a 90% mortality rate.

          "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

          by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:31:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  2 days. It's spreading awfully well for just a 2 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog

            window.  What do you think about the Zaire strain shifting to a longer delay with a slightly less high mortality rate?  

            Plutocracy (noun) Greek ploutokratia, from ploutos wealth; 1) government by the wealthy; 2) 21st c. U.S.A.; 3) 22nd c. The World

            by bkamr on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:44:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ebola mutates at an order of magnitude (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoundDog

              slower and less frequently then Influenza.

              And the initial "burst spread" is due to infected people diligently infecting their immediate family and health care personnel that are treating them for "fever".  Plus people that travel from nearby regions for the funeral (which in W. Africa involves touching the corpse) and then returning home.  

              Once the Ebola scare becomes public knowledge, more care is taken and it is usually easy to quickly isolate and allow to run its course.

              Thats the reason for alarm in this case.  This thing is not in a single village that Docs w/o Borders can cordon off (which they are very good at).  Its in a wide open area spanning three countries, plus a major port city to boot.

              Where do you start?  How can you even be sure you've got it all?  

              Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

              by Wisper on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:39:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  are they (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      Getting it from eating cooked meat or from handling infected carcasses during food prep?

  •  Resource pages, Ebola (caution, scary info) (6+ / 0-)

    Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

    by Catskill Julie on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:00:28 PM PDT

  •  AS A PHYSICIAN... who trained during AIDS... (14+ / 0-)

    This is very bad news BUT A GREAT PIECE for sharing! Thanks Hounddog.  

    Sharing this via twitter, google + and fb.

    YOU ALL SHOULD TOO, with anyone you know in first reponse medicine! or at any airport or other facility that welcomes African travelers!

    Proud to be part of the 21st Century Democratic Majority Party of the 3M's.. Multiracial, Multigender and MiddleClass

    by LOrion on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:13:14 PM PDT

  •  Can the US government protect us? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    With deregulation, lax oversight and the privatization of so many government services, it seems unlikely.

    Money is property, not speech. Overturn Citizens United.

    by Betty Pinson on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:19:56 PM PDT

    •  if there were an outbreak (8+ / 0-)

      of cholera, an old and well-known disease, in a large city, say Minneapolis, I don't think we could handle it.

      And cholera is treatable with rehydration therapy (basically drink a lot of water mixed with salt and sugar) and antibiotics.

      With hurricanes exacerbated by climate change, this is a real possibility in the aftermath, if water supplies are contaminated.

      We are really not equipped to handle epidemics, especially of a novel disease. Look at how poorly we handled SARS. Luckily it burned out, but if it hadn't, who knows? It could have been much worse.

      "In America, the law is king." --Thomas Paine

      by limpidglass on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:43:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Our borders are so porous (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog, drmah

        To any traveler who doesn't fit a terrorist profile. If the epidemic grows, how likely would it be for the US to close our borders to travelers from affected areas?

        Money is property, not speech. Overturn Citizens United.

        by Betty Pinson on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:32:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  microbes don't just travel via people (10+ / 0-)

          anything physical that passes from one place to another can be a vector for microbes. Cargo, either plant or animal, for instance.

          A cholera epidemic was traced to contaminated water taken up for ballast by ships in one harbor and released in another. The Black Death was spread by rats.

          Anthrax spores can live in soil for decades until they're stirred up and people are exposed to them, causing an outbreak; infected animal carcasses are incinerated to prevent this from happening.

          Birds spread all sorts of diseases, fungal diseases for instance. How can you keep birds from migrating?

          Shutting down airports, seaports, train stations etc. does keep sick people from moving quickly and exposing large numbers of people who might then travel to other places and infect others. But it's a very, very costly measure and you can't do it for long. And microbes don't respect national borders.

          "In America, the law is king." --Thomas Paine

          by limpidglass on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:52:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  So right about balast water. Spreading all kinds (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            nchristine, celticshel, Betty Pinson

            of invasives from one ocean to another.

            Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

            by Catskill Julie on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:14:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Saudi Arabia has already canceled visas (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            limpidglass, Betty Pinson

            from West Africa, bkamr has noted the illegal game meat trade from Africa to Europe, especially, EU.

            If this epidemic is not soon contained, we may soon she trade, flight, and other transportation bans from these areas.

            Probably bans on animal imports will be announced within this next week.

            The economic impact for this region of Africa could be devastating.

            I imagine tourists are cancelling vacation not just to West Africa but likely to the whole continent.

            Sadly, humans seem to either vastly under react, or over react. We have trouble finding the happy medium.

            "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

            by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:46:59 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  We've given over too much of our public health (0+ / 0-)

        system to for-profit companies, IMO. One of he advantages to a single payer base system with private insurance available for boutique services on top of it, is that in an epidemic we could get immediate services for everyone.

        What too many do not think about with our current system is that if an epidemic should break out, what is in the best common good is for people to contact their doctors at the first evidence of any symptoms.

        However, if one is poor and does not have health insurance, and has an experience of going to the ER and then being dunned for years by creditors these people will hesitate and wait until the last possible moment or just not even go, which could accelerate the infection, or prevent health officials from gaining timely data on incidence.

        "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

        by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:41:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ebola is actually tough to transmit (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      we have proven is can be passed by touching inanimate objects (like a doorknob after an infected person touched it) or by air, but this requires perfect conditions in a lab and has never been observed in the field.

      It also is typically slow to spread since it requires an exchange of body fluids.  What we see with Ebola (and how doctors come to suspect an outbreak as opposed to a Malaria infection) is that it infects families.  A person gets sick, they come down with a fever, their family cares for them (ie touches them and cleans up after them) and suddenly the whole family is sick.  Malaria doesn't do this.  This is a red flag.

      But Ebola ramps up so quickly and then either kills or debilitates the victim(s) so quickly they don't have much opportunity to keep mingling with society and pass this on in all directions (like an early small pox infection would).

      Theoretically yes, a person could be infected and then hop on a plane very quickly and land somewhere still seemingly healthy.  But this is not as likely as it would appear.

      Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

      by Wisper on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:35:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I Wisper. I was looking for you this afternoon as (0+ / 0-)

        I had to take Gina to the docs just as I posted this.

        I just made a similar comments seconds ago.

        Some of us were talking about the possible transmission from bat to primates, from primates to humans, and from human, to humans.

        Bkamr was asking how the virus gets from bats to monkeys and then sees to provide two likely answers.  

        1. Bats are pooping and peeing all over the leaf canape including monkey food and the monkeys, all night long.

        2. Bats die and could be eaten as carrion by primates, although we don't know if monkeys eat dead animals. If they were recent enough and the monkeys hungry enough they might.

        3. I added, if monkeys, don't eat carrion maybe some other animals like rats do, that monkeys eat.

        4. and, Maybe some other predator of bats like raptors, or snakes eats bats, gets infected and monkeys eat them.

        This got me thinking, these things are happening by the million, maybe even billion per year. We haven't had a case of Ebola for seven years.

        1. This virus must be very rare in bats, (perhaps explaining why they haven't identified it until now despite much search since 1970,

        2. transmission from bats, to primates, must be inefficient or rare,

        3, transmission from primates to humans must be inefficient and rare because previous cases can all be traced back through funeral rituals NOT from mass outbreaks from bushmeat.

        4. transmission from human to human must be relatively inefficient. All of the cases I've read about have been either heathcare, family members of funeral ritual people. Not casual passerbys, in shopping centers lets say.

        I read today, that as one gets sick diarhea is a first symptom and as family members clean it up without proper protection they get infected.

        So, given that we've only had 120 suspected cases not thousands as might be expected if thousands or tens of thousands, of monkeys were infected suggests that this is not an easily transmitted virus. Deadly yes, but not easily caught.

        "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

        by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:12:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hope she's okay (0+ / 0-)

          So the questions... , well first: We don't know all this stuff yet.  We only just found out about the bats and even that is not completely conclusive.  This is all active research.  But I'll try to answer based on what I have seen published.

          1.  Urine and Feces.  For Ebola?  We don't think so.  This is the case with other diseases, notably the Nipah virus in SE Asia and the Islands.  We know that bats that feed on a certain type of data contaminate the fruits with their excreta and that passes on as a live vector to humans that consume the fruit or drink the sap.  But with Ebola, the theory is still that is requires direct entry into some kind of open wound.

          2.  Bats don't just get eaten as carrion.  Primates hunt these things in the canopy.  Primates also aggressively hunt and kill other primates.  Chimpanzees are actually one of our highest suspects as an entry opportunity into the primate world because they will hunt and kill just about anything smaller then them, they hunt in packs and corner things in the treetops and then rip it apart with their strength splashing blood and fluid all over the place.  Bats, bird mammals, other monkeys (particularly Colobus monkeys) can all be Chimpanzee prey. This coupled with the fact of their complex social structure, grooming, fighting, sexual proclivity and care for their young can spread the disease quickly within a group.  But this can not be the only way as we have seen confirmed Ebola cases in gorillas, which are almost 100% herbivorous.

          3.  Bats are not the only reservoir.  They are showing a lot of evidence of being perhaps the largest and maybe the most persistent.  Add to this the fact of their vast migratory range and their apparent immunity to any Ebola symptoms and they are the highest threat vector we've found with Ebola.  But we have confirmed lab test results showing Ebola in antelope, porcupines and other vertebrates in these forest/jungle habitats.

          We just don't know how these animals are passing it from one to another.  Yet.

          Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

          by Wisper on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 05:29:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  presumably, they can do a genetic comparison (7+ / 0-)

    of the strains found in the various patients.

    If they are the same, then there must be a common focus of infection. But can bats really migrate that far, to spread it over such wide distances? Does the pattern of spread follow bat migration patterns?

    I am not an expert, but perhaps there could be an asymptomatic human carrier of the virus, like Typhoid Mary--although such a thing has never been known to occur before. I reiterate that this is just my hypothesis. If this is the case, then conventional epidemiology should be able to find this carrier. And you would expect him/her to leave a trail of victims behind him/her, I don't know whether that's happened.

    There is really very little known about Ebola. It's not like measles or chickenpox, where we have hundreds of years of experience and millions of cases to study. Ebola was discovered less than forty years ago and I don't think there have been more than a couple thousand confirmed cases. It's been picked apart in labs but there's very little experience with how it spreads in vivo.

    "In America, the law is king." --Thomas Paine

    by limpidglass on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 01:37:14 PM PDT

    •  Patient Zero Is 95% Movie Cliche (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog, DavidMS

      ...it's a movie cliche that Dustin Hoffman has to find the monkey, and when he does somehow that means there's a cure or the epidemic can be stopped or some fucking thing.

      Men are so necessarily mad, that not to be mad would amount to another form of madness. -Pascal

      by bernardpliers on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:10:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Patient Zero (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        celticshel, HoundDog

        is critical to epidemiologists to try and learn the key factors of the zoonotic transfer.  Ebola has been around since the 70's and we only just learned about the bat thing in the last few years.

        Thats the importance of patient zero.  We would LOVE to learn that all tehse multiple outbreaks can be traced back to a single region or a single type of animal or a single transfer mechanism.  This would be a great feature that we could exploit in our fight against the disease.

        The scariest thing about this outbreak for doctors is the fact that it is spread out and thus complicating quarantine effects and the possibility it could get unleashed in a crowded urban setting.  Patient Zero (most likely long since dead and burned) has nothing to do with this.

        But for epidemiologists, it is the question: How the hell did a disease never before seen North of the Congo crop up in multiple places simultaneously on the coast of West Africa.

        Either something weird happened to transport the virus or this thing is spreading in ways we did not know about before.  Neither is good, but the latter is WORSE.

        And we need to know as much as possible about Patient Zero to pin this down.

        Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

        by Wisper on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:29:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Virus hunters think bush meat is a likely culprit, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      generally. Vectors and animal reservoirs of virus that would not usually come into contact with people do via hunters and raw meat. Epidemiologists and zoologists are working with hunters to ID and carefully bag dead animals the hunters find, to try to isolate and identify diseases that might affect people.

      Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

      by Catskill Julie on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:11:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Excellent questions Limpidglass. One of the (0+ / 0-)

      articles cited in my post quotes government officials from Guinea attributing the outbreak pattern to the ease of travel in modern day Guinea.

      He did not mention bats at all.

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:49:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think something (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Randtntx, Catskill Julie, HoundDog

    is wonky with the recommend feature.  I am not on a mobile, but at least half of the diaries lack a recommend button.  It seems arbitrary to me as to which diaries, as a Kos diary will have a rec button even though it is irrelevant, but someone else who could use a rec doesn't have a button I can see.

    •  I think you're right. Thought it was me. And I (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog, jfromga

      don't always go back, refresh, try again, etc.

      Okay, the Government says you MUST abort your child. NOW do you get it?

      by Catskill Julie on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 05:06:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe thats explain what I've been observing. The (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jfromga

      morning and afternoons here are like Friday nights. I see 30 to 40 excellent posts by big name non- Front pagers languishing with 2 to 5 recs. It isn't just me.

      I've just about decided it isn't even worth posting until late afternoon.

      This is a crisis as far a I'm concerned. I've been complaining all week, but seem to be the only one.

      But, in the process have learned lots of interesting things. like about 80 out of the 150 regular daily posters here do not even recommend 1 post on the whole site!

      On a blog dedicated to grass roots egalitarian democracy! We have a bunch of elitist writers.

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:18:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I guess (0+ / 0-)

        I will have to make an effort to find out how to ask about a tech issue.    I usually recommend a lot of diaries, maybe too many, but if I like it, I rec it even if it wasn't on earth sharttering news or issues.

  •  Yay! I was one of the 60! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    And I do it again!

    Why do I have the feeling George W. Bush joined the Stonecutters, ate a mess of ribs, and used the Constitution as a napkin?

    by Matt Z on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 02:54:32 PM PDT

  •  Good source of info on the issue (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, celticshel

    Often updated
    http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/...

    And includes a link to this fear reducing post

    I’m a stats geek, so last week I chalked up a simple mathematical model that approximates the likelihood of Ebola actually making it to the States. I’ve been updating it to reflect reports by the CDC, and as of today, the probability is still less than .001%. If you dared to follow the link, you might be wondering why I haven’t factored in the new suspected cases in Liberia. The answer’s pretty simple; all 7 cases can be traced back to Guinea and have not yet spread to other individuals within Liberia’s borders, suggesting that the disease has thus far been successfully contained [3, 4]. As long as this holds true, there’s no chance that Ebolavirus will be hopping on a plane and traveling from Liberia to the United States.
    Though certainly imperfect, our current understanding of Ebola – from its virology to its epidemiology and pathogenesis – is one of our greatest defenses against mass transmission. To some degree, we know what we’re up against – much more so than we did during the Spanish Flu and Smallpox Pandemics… And while it’s unclear where #Ebola2014 might spread to next, sufficient knowledge – paired with appropriate action by organization like MSF and able-bodied governments – should keep it from following in their footsteps.
    http://maimunamajumder.wordpress.com/...

    “Texas is a so-called red state, but you’ve got 10 million Democrats here in Texas. And …, there are a whole lot of people here in Texas who need us, and who need us to fight for them.” President Obama

    by Catte Nappe on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:01:46 PM PDT

    •  Wow, thanks Catte Nappe. May I quote you in my (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      celticshel

      next post?

      Your analysis is consistent with what I've read. One surprise for me since the 2007 outbreak is that although Ebola has a 90% mortality rate, which sounds scary, it is "relatively" easy to contain as long as it maintains its traditional patterns.

      As people get sick, they are easy to identify, and they don't move around a lot.

      The next people to become infected are usually family member, or people in the same village.

      So containment perimeters are quickly set up. People educated about precautions, washing hands, chlorinating surfaces, etc. and the epidemic "burns out relatively" quickly.

      I say "relatively" to contrast to the much discussed and expected eventual mutation of that one flu in Asia to an airborne form of transmission. I  believe it is "Avian flu," but it may be a variation of Swine flu." I do not remember the H1N1 numbers. And, apparently which birds, pigs, and human in such close proximity we have a perfect mutation factory for brewing up new contagions.

      The flu they are concern about that currently is only transmitted by direct extensive contact with a sick bird, has a 10% mortality rate, and my understanding is that mathematicians like yourself report it could spread throughout the globe within 3 months.

      Due to some curious properties of biology and math that you should perhaps explain to us, that might be related to regression to the mean, random mutation, or the probability that less morbid strains spread more than more more morbid strains, or a little of all three, the morbidity fraction is actually expected to fall as the virus spreads throughout larger populations.

      Multiplying even a smaller fraction by 7 billion yields a tragic number.

      Also sadder, is the understanding that a vast majority of deaths could be prevented if we stockpiled vast numbers of inexpensive hand ventilators to keep the afflicted's lungs open during the worst 24 hours of the flu. Most people will die apparently of a secondary pneumonia, especially the elder, immune compromised, malnourished, etc.

      Apparently, even in the apparently wealthier countries like the U.S. the combined hospital grade ventilator capacity is less than 1,500.

      These inexpensive handheld plastic pump ventilators could keep someone alive if the patient had a loved ones willing to count out 20 second breath cycles for 24 hours. However, for-profit insurance companies see no return on investment on stockpiling several hundred million of these on a probability model, even though reputable mathematicians I know say "it is not a matter of if, but only a matter of when," based on their understanding of genetics and probability theory.

      Do I understand this correctly, or am I barking up the wrong tree, Catte Nappe?

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 06:18:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not my analysis, and I am not the stats geek (0+ / 0-)

        That is from the poster(s) at the links provided.

        The stat references, again, are at this blog: http://maimunamajumder.wordpress.com/...

        It is the blog of this person:

        Maimuna (Maia) Majumder is an Engineering Systems PhD student at MIT. Before coming to MIT, she earned a Bachelors of Science in Engineering Science and a Masters of Public Health in Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Tufts University. In her research thus far, Maia has examined the role of environmental and infrastructural drivers on cholera in Bangladesh, as well as the spatiotemporal parameters of infectious disease propagation.
        http://maimunamajumder.wordpress.com/...

        “Texas is a so-called red state, but you’ve got 10 million Democrats here in Texas. And …, there are a whole lot of people here in Texas who need us, and who need us to fight for them.” President Obama

        by Catte Nappe on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 08:50:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  great but scary diary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    This is way too reminiscent of the start of the Aids era.  It needs to get into the mainstream consciousness, surely it's more important than where that plane ended up or Benghazi.

    sometimes the dragon wins

    by kathy in ga on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:33:57 PM PDT

    •  Would you like to see something really scary? Go (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kathy in ga

      to google images and type in ebola and scan down to some of the autopsies and photos of skin boils. Then you may be impressed at how "reserved" The HoundDog has been. Those photos are just as easy to transfer into photobucket, but he useful thing here seems to be to raise awareness as to what is now happening in West Africa, how important pubic health investments are in the CDC, WHO, etc, and, educating and preparing ourselves to participate in upcoming public policy debate such as what Saudi Arabia has done with Visa cancellations.

      The WHO says, this is an overreaction and they have the situation under control. LIke in the lifecycle of our awareness of the HIV epidemic, we went from a period when people ignored it for two long, to a period where people wanted to overreact to it, for example, banning children from schools, which was never necessary.

      So, I've decided sensational pictures do no serve our most important purposes here, and people can look them up if they want to see them. They are frightening.

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 06:25:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  what this reminds me of (0+ / 0-)

        it's making me think of the movie 'And the Band Played On', that had an incredible chilling opening.  I feel like we may be living that again and of course it won't 'matter' until it comes here.  That movie was part of what got me volunteering to work with Aids patients.

        sometimes the dragon wins

        by kathy in ga on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 04:02:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The Hot Zone (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Teiresias70, SMWalt, HoundDog, celticshel

    The Hot Zone

    one of the most terrifying reads evah.

    “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” Buckminster Fuller

    by pfiore8 on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:41:00 PM PDT

  •  Can't thank you enough for your work (5+ / 0-)

    on the Ebola outbreak.

    My brother, sister in law, and niece live in Conakry, the capital of Guinea.

    They're hanging in there and taking all precautions but this is frightening as hell, for them, the people of Guinea and all of West Africa.  

    I want them home, damn it.

    There is something in us that refuses to be regarded as less than human. We are created for freedom - Archbishop Desmond Tutu

    by Onomastic on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 03:50:22 PM PDT

    •  Oh my goodness Onomastic, I didn't know. You and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      moviemeister76

      they must be sick with worry. My best wishes for all of you.

      So far both the WHO, and Doctors Without Borders say they have a good handle on this.

      Although Ebola is scary as heck because of its 90% mortality rate once you are infected, health officials understand how it is transmitted, so once they know it is spreading in a region, and which families it has afflicted they say they can contain it more easily than many other kinds of epidemic.

      So, I'll bet you relative are going to be okay. The eight cases in Conakry were from people that had visited a funeral in the remote areas that had other infections, and had touched the bodies of someone that had died from it.

      If you have a chance to talk to your relative tell them not to touch any dead people even tough that might be the traditional culture.

      Also it might be wise to avoid eating "bushmeat," or "gamemeat," especially monkeys, apes, bats, or any animals that died on their own.

      I've also read that some people who are being extra cautious have bought chlorine. (Like the Chlorox laundary bleech) to disinfect suspicious packages coming into their houses, and the bottoms of their shoes.

      I am not a doctor Onomastic so I do not know if this is helpful, but since we are friends, I feel like I should tell you everything I know in case it might help you protect your loved ones.

      Every thing I have heard about the WHO and Doctors Without Borders (The English translation of the French group) is that they are absolutely the best in the world and do and outstanding job. So I'm sure we can trust that everything that is known about what people can do to protect themselves is being shared with the local populations.

      I have never heard even one allegation of the kinds of common withholding of information common among nuclear utilities like TEPCO at Fukushima, or Three Miles Island, that I had to help my family evacuate from while utility spokespeople lied through their teeth.)

      WHO and DWB have impeccable reputations as far a I know. I will say a prayer for you and your family. (A Scientific Humanist equivalent - its too hard to explain now.) Best Wishes.

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 06:40:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is it possible that the spread through the bat (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    population is due to something suppressing the bat's immunity? Allowing more bats to be infected and possibly serve as an incubator for a mutated strain?

    "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

    by GreenMother on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 04:30:11 PM PDT

    •  I do not honestly know GreenMother. It's a mighty (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GreenMother

      curious mystery I'm looking all over the internet for news on.

      I'll do another post on this tomorrow, or sooner if I find something really important. If you follow me, and/or SciTech, it will show up in your Stream when you wake up tomorrow, or whenever.

      Thanks for commenting.

      "Seriously, Folks, WTH?" - ("What the Heck? "h/t Joan McCarter, Seriously, Florida. WTF?)

      by HoundDog on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 06:42:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bats are just a host (0+ / 0-)

      they do not suffer from Ebola at all so its not an immune system issue at all.

      The question comes down to how the virus is transmitted between bats coupled with bats over-lapping migratory patterns.  

      The fear is that these subspecies are not unique carriers and can pass this on to other migratory animals creating an expanding reservoir that can (and will) carry this to new human populations.

      The one check on Ebola, and it is self-imposed, is how rapidly is kills.  Its hard to spread on its own once the initial population clusters are infected.  Its not like the plague or small pox. (yet)

      But if enough animals are passing this around Africa, this surmounts Ebola's inherent limiter and things get scary very quickly.

      Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

      by Wisper on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:22:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Most Bats are insectivores, so perhaps the true (0+ / 0-)

        reservoir might be a blood sucking insect like a mosquito or midge or biting fly.

        "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

        by GreenMother on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:02:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Or could it be carried by a parasite that uses (0+ / 0-)

        bats as hosts like some kind of worm or something transmitted once again by a blood sucking insect such as like when fleas transmit the plague or hanta virus.

        "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

        by GreenMother on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:04:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Some things I have found--just brainstorming here (0+ / 0-)

      1. It interests me that Marburg and Ebola are related, and that Marburg is carried by fruit bats. This is believed to be spread by their guano. Similar thinking seems to be present when looking at Ebola. That the bats eat fruit and seeds, and when they poop, the guano may be attractive to simians, rats, and other animals that might scavange that guano for those seeds and partially digested fruit.

      2. It can also be carried by Gorillas, Chimpanzees, Macaques, Duikers, Dogs, Pigs (pigs potentially being another reservoir), and it's genome has been found in some small rodents.

      The carrier bat of the Marburg virus is the Egyptian Fruit Bat or Rousettus Aegyptiacuse which have a large range, from Africa to India except Sahara. They eat on unripe, fungal and insect damaged fruit, which made me wonder if perhaps the source was either a fungal spore or an insect larvae that could infect the bat as a parasite? The difference in Ebola being that it's traces were found in insectivorous bats which again to me, point to a parasite carried by a insect the bat feeds on, or a virus carried by an insect the bat feeds on, or that feeds on the bat. Egyptian fruit bats are often poisoned by farmers, because the bats like to feed on crops. Many insecticides are petroleum based and have one thing in common--exposure can lead to a suppressed immune system in vertebrates and invertebrates alike.  This can happen by eating sprayed fruit or poisoned bait, but it could also happen to insectivorous bats, by eating poisoned insects (Bioaccumulation in higher species ala Rachel Carson). I say this because if the farmers are spraying for bats, then they are likely spraying for bugs too, and even birds. (remembering the four pests campaign way back, under Mao.

      As far as natural reservoirs go--Dogs, Pigs, Duikers, Rodents, Chimps, Gorillas, and Insectivorous Bats all point to blood sucking insect (in my mind anyhow). Mosquito, midge, biting fly, flea or something of that nature.

      I am probably just repeating earlier conversations--but then again.

      "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

      by GreenMother on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 08:49:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  First Clue: Hammer Headed Bat (0+ / 0-)

        Hypsignathus monstrosus, found in equitorial African river areas, swamps, mangroves, marshes below 1800m. Fruit bat that prefers figs, but feeds also on bananas, guavas, mangoes.

        Biggest health problem of this bat, infection by parasites. Specifically a parasitic protozoa known as Hepatocystis carpenteri which is transmitted by a blood sucking midge in the coulicoides genus, and a known vector of several diseases. The males feed on nectar, the females do too, but suck blood to ripen their fertilized eggs. They lay those eggs in places of slow moving water, damp soil, dung heaps, and are generally found in marshy swampy areas. The Hammer Headed Bat is one of three bats found in Kitum Cave that was the site of an Ebola Outbreak. The disease was found in this (and two other species of bats) spleen and liver--organs known to be attacked by the virus.

        I haven't looked up the other two bats yet.

        "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

        by GreenMother on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:13:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The other two bats, Epomops franqueti or (0+ / 0-)

          Epauletted Fruit Bat-- feeds on fruit, nectar and petals of certain flowers. It masticates these items, sucking the juice and spitting out the spent pulp (another potential vector made by diseased bats? in addition to guano?) Range--Ivory Coast, Sudan, Angola and Zambia in Subsaharan Forest and Equitorial Tropics. A source of Bush Meat like the Hammer Headed Bat.

          Little Collared Fruit Bat Myonycteris torquata: Range is large and over laps the ranges of these other Megabats. This one prefers moist lowland forest and savanas. This one like the Hammer Headed Bat also carries a parasite that infects the liver cells--Hepatpcystis perronae which is also transmitted by the genus Culicoides of biting midges.

          If these bats are the key, then I would be looking at insects that bite the bats and suck their blood or that infect them with parasites.

          I would be looking at the parasites and viruses carried by those biting midges in the Culicoides genus.

          Also the Hammer Head bat is preyed upon by owls and falcons--have those been tested as carriers of this virus as well?

          "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

          by GreenMother on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 09:46:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  They do not believe Ebola to be insect carried (0+ / 0-)

        It doesn't match the spread pattern of any insect carried disease.

        If it was in a flying parasite we'd see more direct human infection which would map out to a randomized spot pattern within known areas of presence.  Exactly as malaria does.

        There is no virological mechanism by which it would need to be in a bat, or other host, first in order to become a threat to humans.  

        The CDC reports that there is no evidence that either Ebola or Marburg can be transmitted via insect bite, either to humans or animals.

        Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

        by Wisper on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 05:40:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It may be that the virus has to incubate in the (0+ / 0-)

          bats first.

          Normally H5N1 isn't highly contagious, but if it gets passed back and forth between pigs and chickens/fowl it changes and becomes more virulent and contagious.

          So perhaps we are looking at multiple steps that have to happen in the transmission stages.

          Before this was rare, but lets say, Pigs are considered a possible reservoir--which they are, perhaps as people encroach on areas where the midges and the bats are endemic, then this virus might have to be passed back and forth between two incubating species, the midge simply being a carrier, since it's blood borne.

          The midge carries the virus in some protozoa, and bites a pig, infecting a pig, and the pig incubates, another midge bites the infected pig and then bites the bat, passing on a mutated version to the bat, the bat incubates it for awhile, eats some fruit near a human settlement and poops out shed virus, someone steps in guano or some such, and voila! Infected human.

          It may even be that the midges have to help pass the virus several times between pigs and bats or some other animal and bats before it gets truly virulent.

          When pigs and dogs are infected, also it was shown they could get it through airborne droplets.

          It doesn't have to be pigs though. It could be a rodent that serves this purpose too or some wild animal previously not considered.

          "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

          by GreenMother on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 09:54:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also--is it possible that some humans could be (0+ / 0-)

            reservoirs? Like Typhoid Mary? Asymptomatic carriers? Have they looked for viral evidence of humans having been infected, but not succumbed or at least not died from it. 90 percent death rate still means that some humans survive or may even be somewhat immune.

            The ones that don't die could be protected by something else, it could be genetic, it could be another parasite or even another infection.

            "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

            by GreenMother on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 09:57:48 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  We track antibody evidence in humans extensively (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              GreenMother

              There are databanks with THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS of samples to try to show how prevalent or widespread this might be.

              Field researchers sample people in all the hot zone regions (now to include West Africa) to try and find evidence of where unreported outbreaks might have been as well to track the movement patterns of previously exposed people throughout the region to help model scenarios of how and where this could spread.

              Ebolavirus (EBOV) can be carried asymtomatically by exposed humans for up to 2 to 3 weeks after exposure but we have no hard evidence as to the level of contagion with these people.

              There is a small immune system response when first exposed that lasts a few days and then they are symptom free but EBOV remains present in their system.  Here is that study if you are interested.  It was related to the Zaire strain (ZEBOV) outbreak in Gabon.

              Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

              by Wisper on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:26:09 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Good to know. (0+ / 0-)

                "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

                by GreenMother on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 03:38:54 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  I guess (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GreenMother

            This seems quite speculative and counter to the actual field data that has been reported.... but with the yawning gaps in our knowledge about Ebola I am certainly not in any position to say "no".  But we do have significant genetic research to show that Ebola really doesn't mutate very well or very often.  It just doesn't.  So suddenly converting itself from host to host to adapt to different species is counter-factual to everything we do know about filovirii.  Influenza's mutative abilities are so vast there is very little that thing can do that would ever surprise us.  Which is why H1N1 is still a serious threat.  That ability just does not present itself in Ebola.

            As for the airborne transmission, if you read that published study they do caveat that it is not proven to be airborne through saliva micro-droplets like influenza but rather "carry-able" (I think I just made that word up) in large close-range water droplets.  There is some evidence that it would be present in breath aerosol but the evidence of viable transmission is extremely circumstantial.

            Here is the actual study

            But the published synopsis stated clearly:

            Clearly Ebolavirus is very contagious but there is only weak circumstantial evidence that transmission from pigs occurs via the porcine breath aerosol.
            They were more suspect of splashing water or urine that would come in contact with the monkeys and then be internalized through their grooming methods.

            The CDC has stated clearly that we have no evidence in almost 40 years of Ebola study to suggest it can be borne in anyway by insects.   (which is exactly what all the first theories on this sought to prove).

            Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

            by Wisper on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:17:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The quality of material I have been reading is not (0+ / 0-)

              primary research, assuming that I could understand that as well as someone who specializes in that field.

              It will be interesting to see what we find in this process.

              "It were a thousand times better for the land if all Witches, but especially the blessing Witch, might suffer death." qtd by Ehrenreich & English. For Her Own Good, Two Centuries of Expert's Advice to Women pp 40

              by GreenMother on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 03:41:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Sorry... wasn't on later today. (0+ / 0-)

    Glad to see this diaried though

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Wed Apr 02, 2014 at 07:19:13 PM PDT

  •  Not sure if this is really still a live thread.. (0+ / 0-)

    But there is now a suspected case in Liberia in the Eastern village of Tapeta that, if true, would be wholly unrelated to any outbreak in Guinea.

    This is a hunter that rushed to the hospital with hemorrhagic fever symptoms and was dead within 30 minutes.  He has never been to Guinea or had contact with anyone from Guinea.

    This guy has 500 traps in the forest and is 250 miles from the Guinea border.

    They are doing tests on the corpse to check for Ebola.  Liberia only has 6 deaths so far and 44 people under surveillance for symptoms and ALL of them can be directly traced back to Guinea.

    If this hunter died from Ebola this problem just got bigger.

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:37:50 AM PDT

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