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Senator Mitch McConnell is not very popular in Kentucky. He's in far worse shape than six years ago, when he won with 53 percent of the vote. His job approval ratings took a real hit this fall, although likely they have recovered modestly along with the favorability of Republicans in general. (We don't have enough recent data for McConnell to say anything more than his job approval this winter is worse than it was last summer.)

So what has happened to other incumbents that are this unpopular? Has anybody else in this position been re-elected recently? Will his popularity recover? Follow the discussion below.

Can incumbents this unpopular win re-election?

What happens to incumbents this unpopular? The short answer: They usually retire. But for the brave who press on, they have a chance. Here are the outcomes for incumbents with net job approval ratings just prior to the election of -10 or worse in elections from 2006-2012:

The candidates with the three worst ratings didn't even make it to the general election. McConnell's current ratings are right between Blanche Lincoln and Ernie Fletcher, who both flamed out terribly. But the deeply unpopular Pat Quinn and the infamous Rod Blagojevich of Illinois both managed to hang on. These two are both Democrats in a relatively liberal state, arguably analogous to McConnell's situation.

However, there's also something else going on here: third-party candidates do very well, and having a lot of votes going to a third or fourth candidate seems to help the incumbent. This apparent relationship might just be a result of the small number of cases we have to work with, though.

So that's all well and good, but it's April now, not November. Can McConnell's ratings recover before November?

How do incumbents' net approvals change during election season?

Eight months can be an eternity in politics, but it turns out that over the last several election cycles, changes in an incumbent's job approval over that time period generally stayed within a certain range:

Net approval may rise by up to 15 points, or fall by 25 points, but 95 percent of the time it will not change more than that. At first blush, this seems like fairly useless information, but it does tell us that it is highly unlikely (but not impossible) that McConnell will see positive net approval ratings before election day. Likewise, it is highly unlikely that Senator Collins of Maine will see her net approval drop into the negative zone.

Still, that's highly unsatisfying from the point of view of making predictions. Let's throw in another variable:

What's the effect of money on incumbents' net approval ratings?

Some incumbents face a challenger-in-name-only in the form of an Unknown Somebody. Others bear the brunt of an assault only the Koch brothers can provide.

Using the fundraising numbers available on Open Secrets, we can see that 80 percent of the time there's a relationship between the amount of money a challenger spends in the general election and the change in the Senate incumbent's net approval rating. Keep in mind the many factors that aren't taken into account in this graph, including outside spending and state population.

This makes sense. If you don't have a decent challenger, you can afford to spend what money you raise on some nice positive publicity. If you're spending millions in a brutal campaign, nobody comes out looking good.

But the exceptions here are informative. For instance, sore loser campaigns are pretty rough on the image of the incumbent—see Lisa Murkowski and Joe Lieberman. And notably, we see that Harry Reid managed to increase his net approval rating despite a tough campaign that nobody would describe as positive. Perhaps it was because his winter 2010 numbers reflected his approval numbers as the demonized face of the Democratic Party in the Senate, while his fall 2010 numbers reflected his role as senator from Nevada. This, at least, is what McConnell should be pinning his hopes on, in an attempt to pull off the same trick.

Wishy-washy possibilities

So what might happen? Let's look at some informed scenarios:

A. McConnell erases the hypothesized Senate Leadership Approval Penalty via campaigning, net approval rises to -15, a little worse than 2008, and he wins by 1-3 points.

B. McConnell gets hammered by negative advertising (and hammers back), his net approval falls to -35, and he loses by 5 to 10 points.

C. Same as C, but a Libertarian candidate also runs, siphons off some disgruntled Somewhat Conservative voters who would have reluctantly voted for Grimes, and McConnell ekes out a win a la Pat Quinn.

D. Fill in the blank. Share your idea in the comments.

Data: Most polling data are from Survey USA and PPP. Line is a Loess regression. Candidate spending information from Open Secrets.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 10:06 AM PDT.

Also republished by My Old Kentucky Kos and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'd go with scenario B. (27+ / 0-)

    McConnell is already getting hammered with negative ads from his primary challenger, Matt Bevins.
      He's almost certain to win the primary, but he won't come away unscathed. And then in the General, he'll have to go negative, because what else does he have (smiling doesn't work for him). And then the negativity comes back at him in spades, and he loses by at least 5 points.
      And what a sweet victory that'll be for our side!

    "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

    by elwior on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 10:18:08 AM PDT

  •  I choose scenario D (31+ / 0-)

    McConnell is favored to lose right now, but only barely. I suspect that 50%+1 of the electorate have already said that they won't vote for him. Those who will vote for him would have voted for him no matter what, and those are likely the people making up the ~44% he's getting in the polls.

    One thing that's not in your (rather good) analysis is length of incumbency. The longer you're in office, the more people have made up their minds. McConnell's running for a sixth term. People know him quite well - and hate him quite a lot. They're not going to vote for him unless they start hating ALG just as badly. That won't happen - ALG is too skilled a politician.

    Election day 2014 is going to be a long night for KY.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

    by Le Champignon on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 10:31:36 AM PDT

  •  If we can't create big turn out, he ekes out (15+ / 0-)

    a victory... We've got to get people fired up.

    I want to live in a world where George Zimmerman offered Trayvon Martin a ride home to get him out of the rain that night. -Bishop G. Brewer

    by the dogs sockpuppet on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 10:38:59 AM PDT

  •  He wins by 5 (4+ / 0-)

    It's Kentucky.

    Sorry to be a downer (as I often am) but Grimes hardly mentions Kynect and that's her only real shot, long as it might be.  She strikes me as an Alex Sink.  

    The newly-covered represent about a quarter of KY voters (I read that here).  

    Half won't vote; most come from areas that Romney took by obscene margins; most of those will not suddenly become Democrats.

    •  But What If McConnell's Repeal Position (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior

      mobilizes 1/2 of the remaining half? ALG might even be able to use the issue to persuade more GOTP voters to stay home this time.

      •  ALG will have to get over her inclination (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        runfastandwin, raspberryberet

        to avoid the subject of "Obamacare"and its connection to the benefits of the ACA and Kynect in order for that to happen.  Right now I doubt that most of the applicants for Kynect even realize their new health care program is available courtesy of the dreaded "Obamacare."

        "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke

        by SueDe on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:12:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think that's exactly wrong (5+ / 0-)

          She has to run on McConnell trying to abolish Kynect, not Obamacare.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:32:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But McConnell isn't trying to abolish Kynect. (0+ / 0-)

            He doesn't talk about repealing Kynect - it's the ACA (Obamacare) under his gun.  In order to have to convince Kentuckians that he's trying to abolish Kynect, she will have to make the connection to what he's verbally threatening.

            "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke

            by SueDe on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 09:14:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not exactly (0+ / 0-)

              All she has to do is point out that the bills that he supports would abolish Kynect. If he lies by saying "I don't want to abolish Kynect, only Obamacare," she can explain that he's lying, but what she certainly doesn't need to do is emphasize the connection between the popular Kynect and the unpopular Obama. If she runs on supporting Obamacare, she'll lose; if she runs on protecting Kynect from someone who is fighting to destroy it, she may well win.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 09:46:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Yes you are (a downer). (14+ / 0-)

       But fortunately Alison Lundergren Grimes is no Alex Sink, and voting in Kentucky can go either way, depending on who is running. She is personable and popular, McConnell is neither.

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 10:49:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If you're right (7+ / 0-)

      and she never campaigns on McConnell trying to repeal KyNect, then she probably really doesn't have enough skill as a candidate to win. But I'm doubting we've seen all of her bag of tricks yet.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:18:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't have time to provide links right now... (7+ / 0-)

        ...but check what Sam Youngman has written on the Grimes campaign for the Lexington Herald Leader.  

        In essence:

        * Not aggressive
        * Mostly campaigning by press release
        * Mostly not touting her own positions
        * Mostly attacking McConnell's miscues

        Might be a safe hedge this early in the cycle, but I believe that she's going to have to be more aggressive and identify herself before long before McConnell breaks out the long knives.

        •  That is true, but I think she's playing it quiet, (9+ / 0-)

          until after the GOP primary.  

          The TV is filled with McConnell and Bevins ads right now and they are angry and attacking.  

          Spending money now for her own ads simply throws her name into "I'm tired of them ALL" mix, and is a waste of her money.

          We Vote May 20th on Bevins or McConnell in the primary.

            Then Grimes will come out. Don't forget Bill Clinton will come to KY as much as she needs.  Grimes has a long history of good family politics in KY, and she was beloved for her Secretary of State ads featuring her grandma's (one now deceased).

          Grimes has political skills.  She'll be fine.

          "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

          by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:47:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes. Only ads she should now are nice ones (9+ / 0-)

            In other words, ads that introduce her and define her positively - and define her before Mitch can.

            Make them cute, clever, friendly, short - and infrequent, maybe once a day at most, during the evening.

            The contrast between the nasty GOP ads beating up on each other and her nice friendly introductory ads will work to her benefit.

            Visit http://theuptake.org/ for Minnesota news as it happens.

            by Phoenix Woman on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:05:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I didn't say anything about ads. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I generally agree with you on that point. But she can answer questions more directly, and find more ways to connect with both voters and reporters to start helping to establish herself as the reasonable alternative.

            Also, I agree with Phoenix Woman's reply in terms of useful ads she can be running now. I'll be in the Northern Kentucky / Cincy TV market next week. It'll be interesting to see what's on the air.

            Perhaps Sam Youngman is just a frustrated Beltway reporter re-acclimating himself to politics where not everyone is elbowing her/his way to get in front of the microphones, but it does seem that she needs to be doing as much as possible to improve name recognition and differentiating herself from same ole Mitch. IMHO.

          •  I see it that way too (3+ / 0-)

            If you're running in the Nov election, you don't need to be spending a hell of a lot of money now.

            Meeting with local groups, yes. Some direct mail pieces, maybe. Occasional TV/radio spots, perhaps.

            But not a lot. Let the GOP candidates beat each other up. When you find out who you're running against, THEN you ramp up your spending.

            •  I'm guessing part of this is strategic (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              raspberryberet

              Lundergan Grimes' best shot is to run against an unpopular McConnell, even though he's the Minority Leader. If McConnell is defeated in the primary, Lundergan Grimes had better hope the other guy pulls an Akin, because if he's seen as Generic Republican, he will probably win by 5 points or so. So Grimes isn't going to attack McConnell too hard now, lest she end up sealing he fate.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:45:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  She needs to define McConnell as soon as possible. (0+ / 0-)

            Hit him on nonpartisan grounds (various offensive remarks he's made, his utter ineffectuality at doing anything that actually benefits his constituents, etc. etc.) while Bevin is smacking him around from the Right - ratfuck his primary as best she can.

            Waiting until after he's finished roflstomping Bevin in the primary and is on a roll is silly. That's just letting him face his opponents one at a time.

            "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

            by Australian2 on Mon Apr 07, 2014 at 04:00:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I think that's okay for now, though (3+ / 0-)

          Because she's going to win only if Kentuckians decide to vote against McConnell. She has to make the race about him, not about her.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 05:16:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  let Beshear make the case on Kynect (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mumtaznepal

      he's got the credibility to take it on, not her. I don't think she needs to or that its even necessarily a good idea for her to at this point, at least not until the numbers on its popularity start turning around, and it's not her job to make Kynect popular.

      "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

      by James Allen on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:45:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But Kynect _is_ popular (0+ / 0-)

        Don't you think that she will eventually have to run on McConnell trying to abolish Kynect? She could have Beshear in the ad with he.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 01:06:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know if she'll have to (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, mumtaznepal

          if at some point it looks like Beshear is convincing the public that its a success, then it could be very helpful, but I don't think its her job to convince the public. It's her job to beat McConnell. Anything else is incidental to that.

          I think Kynect is more popular than the ACA in Kentucky. I don't recall that it is actually popular. I'd need to look back at some poll numbers.

          "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

          by James Allen on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 01:09:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed that it's not her job to convince (3+ / 0-)

            Kentuckians that Kynect works. My argument, instead, is that to win, she has to persuade Kentuckians of the truth that McConnell wanted to prevent them from getting health coverage, then tried numerous times to take their coverage away and still wants to try to do that some more.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 01:21:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  she's already polling neck and neck. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TofG, MichaelNY

              I don't know what she needs to do to win, but I agree that it might help. At this point I don't know if she needs to do anything in particular to win other than continue to trash Mitch and get through relatively unscathed herself.

              "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

              by James Allen on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:51:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  IL hates all governors (6+ / 0-)

    I'd consider the IL-Gov races to be outliers.  All governors are despised in IL, but someone has to win.

    I'd be very surprised if both Quinn and Rauner aren't in double digit negative territory by the time Nov gets here.  That's just how it is.

  •  Grimes will barely win. McConnell is deeply (13+ / 0-)

    disliked.  Three Kentucky Tea Party groups have already gotten behind Bevins.  

    McConnell will win his primary.  But in the general, the sane KY voters will vote Grimes.  The Tea Party will stay home or hold their nose and vote McConnell.

    Kentucky has a Democratic governor and state house. The state senate is GOP (very conservative). But there is a long history of Democratic voters here in KY.  The poor areas tend to vote who who helps them - and right now that's Kynect.

    Grimes HAS to run on Kynect, I agree. She can blue dawg coal, etc. But KY LOVES Kynect and Gov. Beshear.

    "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

    by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:13:27 AM PDT

  •  McConnell knows dirty pool inside out (5+ / 0-)

    and sideways. He will have to empty his bag of tricks and invent a few more on the fly. His negatives are huge and has few people skills. He has the charisma of tub of paste. His skill set is in legal trickery, procedural obstruction, and can point at nothing positive in the way of leading his caucus. Grimes wins in a close one with a recount, and legal fight post election.

    Give blood. Play hockey.

    by flycaster on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:15:36 AM PDT

  •  I'm with B. Can I help? (5+ / 0-)

    I live under the bridge to the 21st Century.

    by Crashing Vor on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:24:47 AM PDT

  •  As an aside .. Democrats have sat on the (8+ / 0-)

    Kentucky law change necessary to allow Rand Paul to keep his Senate seat while he runs for President.  It passed the GOP Senate, but House dems won't bring it up.

    This may prevent Paul from running for President!

    "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

    by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:29:15 AM PDT

  •  Grimes has Beshear on her side (8+ / 0-)

    Beshear can tout Kynect for Grimes.  Appeal to Kynect "voters" to get behind Grimes because MacConnell wants to take away your Kynect healthcare.

    Grimes doesn't need to touch "Obamacare" because anything Obama has proven not to sell in KY.

    Grimes can have the best of both, be a loyal local KY AND have Beshear GOTV leveraging the fear of losing and benefits of using Kynect.

    It's good, smart politics.

    •  If she must lie to win (0+ / 0-)

      I'd rather she not.  I mean, run on Kynect but distance herself from Obamacare?  Besides being dishonest, that will turn off the base in a base election.  

      Grimes needs to OWN Obamacare/Kynect.  Drill into the rubes' thick skulls that they are one and the same.  If they can't handle the truth, fuck 'em.

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:41:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  she's not running away from it (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, mumtaznepal

        just saying it needs improvement, just like Landrieu and other Democrats. And I agree with that. It does.

        "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

        by James Allen on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:47:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The way to run on it (0+ / 0-)

          is to run on the positives of the law.  I don't even support the law yet I could list dozens of ways the ACA has improved peoples' lives.  Why is this so difficult for democrats?

          Here's the cool part, as democrats talk about the positive effects of the law, the law will grow more popular, and it will poll better!  This is a chance for dems to create their own favorability ratings.  If even 1/5 of those who benefit from Kynect were to get off their asses to vote for Grimes, she would fucking CRUSH McConnell.  

          "It needs improvement" is a GOP talking point.  That's no different than saying the law is broken.  It's fine to say "we will work towards a more perfect ACA law" AFTER explaining all the good the law has done, but just saying "we're gonna fix it" is exactly the sort of craven politics that results in GOP control of government.

          "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

          by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:56:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Ugh (6+ / 0-)
        Drill into the rubes' thick skulls that they are one and the same.  If they can't handle the truth, fuck 'em.

        Yeah, that sounds like a winning message...

        Seriously, these "rubes" did elect a mightily popular Democratic Governor and plenty of Democratic state Reps and Senators. But good luck winning them over for the national Democrats (let alone liberal/progressive movements) with this kind of classist condescension.

        •  NIMH...Thanks for responding with common sense. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Grimes, path to victory...

          1. Run a local "from KY, for KY" message.

          2. Position against McConnell as what he is - the ultimate Washington insider, a bought and paid for do nothing politician. With Wash, not with KY.

          3. GOTV targeting the Kynect enrollees. The winning turnout margin of voters are here. Tout healthcare for KY!

          4. Have Steve Beshear tout Kynect and Grimes. Let him do the heavy lifting here. Let Steve claim that McConnell voted 50+ times with his colleagues to take Kynect away. Grimes can claim she will make Kynect better.

          5. Bring Big Dog Clinton in to point his finger at McConnell as the man who would take away your rights, your freedom, your healthcare. Let him attack McConnell, call him out.

          6. Never mention Obama, Obamacare.  Obama does not play in KY.  

  •  I missed where you got the (0+ / 0-)

    McConnell data. That graph is really interesting...

    "Broccoli could take down a government. Broccoli is revolutionary." --Kris Carr

    by rb137 on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 11:46:12 AM PDT

  •  If he loses (0+ / 0-)

    There will be someone even more conservative that fills the position, if that can't be believed. His loss isn't our gain.

    http://jasonluthor.jelabeaux.com/

    by DAISHI on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:01:32 PM PDT

  •  This chart doesn't mean much. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Subterranean, IM

    Let's be honest.  This is Kentucky.  The "best case scenario" is the Republicans are going to primary McConnell and someone ideologicall identical will win and take that seat.  Same wolf just in different clothing and citizens of Kentucky will fall for it yet again.  

    This lower approval rating could mean almost anything.  He's too old and been around too long so people want someone new.  Or, the rise of the tea party movement could mean people think McConnell is too "libruhl" and they want someone even more extreme in office to represents "true conservatism"...whatever the hell that even means.  

    The chances of this lower approval rating meaning people are waking up and rediscovering reality is extremely unlikely in my opinion.  As I said, best case to hope for is they send another person exactly like McConnell into office.   Worst case is they send a new Ted Cruz.

    •  McConnell is being attacked by Bevins for being (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in office "too long" and that he's "too liberal".  

      I laugh every time I see that ad. It's current running in Lexington.

      McConnell's ads (also current running before primary May 20) are touting his helping veterans with a new vets hospital in Louisville, and that Obama wants to destroy our military.  Re-elect McConnell to save our veterans.  

      That ad makes me sick to my stomach, knowing all Obama has done for vets and what McConnell has NOT.

      "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

      by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:25:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You may want to read up on the actual primary (0+ / 0-)

      so that you don't make remarks like this:

      best case to hope for is they send another person exactly like McConnell into office

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:27:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Quality of opponent makes all the difference (0+ / 0-)

    The quality of the opponent running against the incumbent makes all the difference in the world. If Harry Reid had been opposed by a boring, middle of the road country club republican that could string a handful of words together without making a fool of themselves he would have lost. The Turtle will lose because his opponent in the general election has some serious game and can go toe to toe with him.

    Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king.... Dylan

    by bywaterbob on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:07:46 PM PDT

    •  You may not be considering (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bywaterbob

      the fact that KY is much more Republican in Federal elections than NV is Democratic.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:28:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  relevant point but not the difference (0+ / 0-)

        You can't beat something with nothing....without a strong opponent the weakest incumbent is usually going to win. If party affiliation was that important KY would not have a Dem for governor.

        Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king.... Dylan

        by bywaterbob on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:33:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wyoming recently had a Democratic governor (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          and Kansas also had a Democratic governor not too long ago, as you'll probably recall. Who a state elects for Governor says little about their votes in Federal elections.

          If your argument is that Lundergan Grimes is a much stronger candidate than Sharron Angle was, I'm sure we'd all agree on that. But Kentucky is R+13 and Nevada - well, I can't find its statewide PVI in 2010, but someone will post it. It sure is nothing close to D+13.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 01:14:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Depends on 2 things (0+ / 0-)

    1. turnout
    2. the economy

    Obamacare won't be much of an issue in Kentucky.. or, it will be a slight plus for Grimes (but she didn't vote for it)

    The economy is probably the biggest factor.  If the economy is still as sluggish as it is now, there will be a backlash against the incumbent President's party.  That will generate GOP turnout and suppress Dem turnout.

    People will hold their nose and vote for McConnell while voting for the other GOP candidates.

    As an Illinoisan I don't know that much about Kentucky politics.  But, if McConnell were that unpopular, I would have thought we'd be seeing Grimes poll much better than she has.

    So, my uneducated opinion is he wins by a few points.

    P.S. one more thing I am curious about.. Grimes seems rather young to me to be a Senator.. is that opinion ever expressed in any of the Kentucky opinion pieces?

  •  It will be (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    a close Grimmes victory if she can maintain electability. She should have Machin and the Gov. do a lot of ground work on rural areas for her and do a big GOTV in the urban areas. I think one of the things she has done well is come out as a fighter. Take it directly to Mitch people will like that

  •  Unless Grimes OWNES Obamacare/Kynect (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM, Hohenzollern

    I believe McConnell wins handily.  If she runs away from Obamacare, or runs on "fixing" it (i.e., runs on it being broken), she will appear craven and voters will respond to the man with a gun in his ads.  

    I don't envy Grime's need to convince the rubes that Kynect and Obamacare are one and the same program.  I'm not even sure that's possible.

    "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

    by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 12:38:26 PM PDT

    •  Why are you so convinced she needs to do that? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mumtaznepal, cville townie, nimh

      A remark in response to an attack in a debate is one thing, but no, it isn't her job to convince the "rubes" that Kynect, which they like, is the same as Obamacare, which they hate because of the "Obama" part. Her job is to win.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 01:16:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kynect is immensely popular (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cville townie

        If Grimes wants to win, then she needs to proudly own Kynect.  Her stunt photo-ops with her shooting a gun are nice, but if Kentucky rubes are going to vote for the most manly candidate, then McConnell and his gun will win.  So far, Grimes is simply running on being a better republican than McConnell, which will utterly FAIL in a base election.  

        I don't mean to put all this on Grimes' shoulders, that's not fair.  The entire democratic party needs to buck up and run on Obamacare, which will take the burden off individuals in local races.  Americans already know that dems passed Obamacare, so running away from it only makes them cowards, and American voters fucking HATE cowards.

        "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

        by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:05:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You don't seem to understand KY politics (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nimh

          if this is a "base" election, Grimes loses by plenty.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:47:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Non-presidential elections (0+ / 0-)

            are all base elections.  I do think she'll lose, but it's not hopeless.  She needs to make McConnell pay for running on repealing Obamacare and pulling health insurance from all the Kynect enrollees.  

            "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

            by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 03:34:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No way are all non-presidential elections (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              nimh

              "base" elections. If that were true, how could Democrats have won R+ districts in 2006?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 03:36:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Dubya turned out our base, dude. (0+ / 0-)

                Along with depressing his own base's turnout.  Only flat-out wingnuts liked that fucker.

                "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

                by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 05:11:37 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You're wrong (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, jncca

                  The electorate in 2006 was older and whiter than the electorate in 2004 (someone recently posted the figures for that on DKE), yet the Democrats romped. It was a case of swing voters among the whiter, older population turning against the Republicans.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 05:18:59 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Interesting, (0+ / 0-)

                    "Swing voters" are a myth, but it's interesting that the electorate was older and whiter.  Guess all we need to do is elect Jeb and dems will do well again...

                    Or dems can stand up for their values and be proud of their accomplishments.

                    "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

                    by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 07:31:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  What the hell? (0+ / 0-)

                      Care to explain what you mean by swing voters being a "myth"? Do you have some kind of misconception that everyone either always votes Democratic or always votes Republican, or otherwise stays home? There are people who split their votes even in the same election, I hope you know. Really, what is your point here?

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 07:36:30 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Data show that (0+ / 0-)

                        "swing voters" or undecideds are actually either dems or republicans who prefer not consider themselves as such.  The observed "swing" is actually a measure of which undecideds turn out, rather than individuals switching votes between parties.

                        There's been a few diaries on this subject at dKos.  I don't have the links offhand, but they aren't too hard to find.

                        "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

                        by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 08:14:16 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I should add, (0+ / 0-)

                          the data don't show that no swing voters exist at all, but that their influence is negligible.  So your example of confused voters who split their votes in the same election is not contradicted by the data.

                          "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

                          by Subterranean on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 08:15:56 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  You mean data like who won (0+ / 0-)

                            the Gubernatorial and Senatorial elections in Illinois the last time? Confused voters? I think not. Enough of them couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Republican who was extreme, but could vote for one who had built up a moderate record and reputation in the House against a very bad Democratic candidate who smelled corrupt to them. And bringing it back to Kentucky, the state has not hesitated to vote Democratic for Governor, but that has had no effect on their votes for Federal statewide races. You and I might thing that's "confused," but it surely makes Grimes' task a lot harder than Beshear's ever was, and not just because Beshear is obviously a really fantastic candidate.

                            I'd really like to see a link on your so-called "myth" of swing voters, because what that looks like to me is the myth of non-leaning independents, which is something completely different.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 08:28:34 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  a study has shown that (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, jncca

                          many are, not that all are.

                          "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

                          by James Allen on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 08:27:10 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

      •  I agree - run on Kynect, don't mention Obamacare (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, cville townie

        Kentucky voters do not like Obama.  Obamacare isn't even mentioned by Gov Beshear, for all it's success in KY helping the poorest - at best he'll mention it as ACA, but virtually always calls it Kynect.

        Grimes runs on keeping Kynect, she may get some Appalachia votes.  But the congressmen there will come around and tell the folks to not vote for her using scare tactics regarding coal.

        "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

        by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:26:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  McConnell (0+ / 0-)

    is simply not going to lose. Not this year, not in Kentucky. He will spend whatever it takes, likely well north of 100M...

  •  The calls have already started... (5+ / 0-)

    I get a call from the McConnell campaign at least once or twice each week.  Right now, the calls don't mention Grimes at all; they either bash Bevin or laud McConnell.

    I'm not seeing a great deal from the Grimes campaign, but she's been spending her time in the western part of the state (I'm in the Bluegrass region - central KY).

    The word "parent" is supposed to be a VERB, people...

    by wesmorgan1 on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 01:00:58 PM PDT

    •  That's rather smart. The only thing that can help (0+ / 0-)

      her in Appalachia would be coming up with something (some type of job) to replace coal.  Uneducated workforce (kids move away), poverty, no highways - very difficult to help those folks by bringing any industry there - it's just not worth it.

      Best hope for votes in the western part of the state (although they sure are conservative and anti-Obama over there).

      I am also in the bluegrass :-)

      "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

      by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:25:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She needs votes in Applachia, too (3+ / 0-)

        And she won't get them if she embraces the "war on coal," so it's good that she is running in support of coal. And I say that as a resident of a state that's a victim of coal pollution blowing here from the west and a strong opponent of fossil fuels and proponent of clean solar, wind, geothermal, wave (etc.) power. Grimes has to get votes in your state, not in mine.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:51:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  There are plenty of highways (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, nimh

        in the Appalachian Development Highway System. They may have letters instead of Interstate numbers, but by and large they are modern 4-lane highways with high speeds but some at-grade access. Eastern Kentucky also has a couple limited-access parkways which are partly (but not entirely) 4 lanes by now.

        The uneducated workforce is a problem, but I wouldn't confuse that with ignorant and backwards; Vicco, KY has an openly gay mayor. Rather, it goes hand-in-hand with the endemic poverty. People move away because there aren't any jobs; there aren't any jobs because there's no workforce... it needs an intervention at some point.

    •  I got a phone call once asking for donations (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      because I gave them money last fall.

      And she held a big event in Prestonburg recently way over in the east.  She's also visited Ashland.  I think she should campaign in the Cincy suburbs (in and around Covington and Ft. Thomas where there's a large number of Dems) as that's put Republican over the top in the past.  West KY is also important, particularly the tricky Purchase.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 07:18:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  McConnell has been abandoned by the Tea Party... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, TofG

    The national Tea Party Patriots went with Bevin.

    2 weeks ago, the Louisville Tea Party went with Bevin.

    Last week, the Lexington Tea Party went with Bevin.

    Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund has backed Bevin from the start.

    Now, it seems that the Club for Growth may stay on the sidelines during the primary.

    The word "parent" is supposed to be a VERB, people...

    by wesmorgan1 on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 01:07:38 PM PDT

    •  I vote in the GOP primary in KY - havent' decided (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nimh

      which way to throw my vote yet this year.  Usually I vote for the "most sane".

      My fear would be crazy, dangerous Bevins would win in the general.  He's pure Tea.

      I think McConnell can be readily beaten by Grimes - but if the Tea Candidate is her opponent, conserv turnout will be big.  

      So not sure which opponent I prefer for a Grimes win.

      "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

      by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:29:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Vote McConnell (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mumtaznepal

        If Bevins wins, he would have to say something extremely offensive to white people to lose. Note that Rand Paul won (admittedly in a Republican wave year) while running against the 1964 Civil Rights Law!

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:52:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, I'm thinking that;s the way. McConnell is (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          beatable, and I'm afraid the conserves would embrace Bevin and turn out.

          Rand Paul was supposed to protect McConnell from Tea Party wrath.  Don't think McConnell has gotten his money's worth from that deal.

          "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

          by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 03:43:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Why don't you wait a bit... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mumtaznepal, MichaelNY

            ...and see how the polling shakes out.  If McConnell is still leading big, vote for the tea party guy. If McConnell is on the ropes, give him a hand.  Our best bet is for McConnell to win just barely, but Bevin seems to be imploding at the moment, so I don't think it will be even close.

            "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

            by LordMike on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 06:12:34 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Humm. Good advice. I love voting in primaries (0+ / 0-)

              It's almost like having more than one vote in how it all turns out :-)

              "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

              by mumtaznepal on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 06:49:41 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  if anything other than the Dems can keep control (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, mumtaznepal

    of the Senate, comes out of the 2014 elections, the Turtles' defeat would make me giddy happy!

  •  I'm w/ "D" - the other bad news scenario: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nimh

    Most likely is that McConnell -- practiced mud slinger that he is -- will get hyper-negative in an over-all negative (and brutal) general campaign.  Money won't be hard for him to raise, and the wall-to-wall slime will discourage voters from turning out (an effect that favors Republicans).  He'll score on the Democrat in a Republican State as the greater of two evils more than she will damage him.  He'll pull out a squeaker.

    I'm afraid we're going to have Mitch to mock for another six years, kids.

  •  Grimes has a great asset with Beshear... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mumtaznepal, MichaelNY, supak

    He can stump hard across the state for her and tout Obamacare (I mean Kynect) and do a lot of that work for Grimes while she can focus on making McConnell even more unpalatable to voters.

    "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

    by LordMike on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:24:56 PM PDT

  •  He is less popular than Ernie Fletcher. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Similar scenario and same state. He's in BIG trouble.

    You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment.

    by MikePhoenix on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 02:42:23 PM PDT

  •  Play money prediction market (0+ / 0-)

    At the American Civics Exchange prediction markets contest, Dem to win KT Senate seat is selling for $45 a share, reflecting a 45% chance. I'm buying some more at that price.

    I would put the odds high on B. It's already gone negative with them, it'll only get worse, it will drag him down, and O-care is going to be popular there by November. Grimes is a big name contender. At the very least, a few good polls and her price will go up.

  •  One thing stands out for me: the waves. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    winners. Of the guys who won, they all won in banner wave years for their party. All of the underwater Dem winners won in 2006, a banner year for Democrats. Except two, Harry Reid and Rick Perry, who both bucked the national tide in their cycles. Both had the advantage of incumbency.

    McConnell has incumbency and is actually flowing with the national tide in his state. Yet despite his bad approval numbers, his re-elect numbers are much better. Why? Theres a lot of people who might not like him, but will vote for him anyway. McConnell will take a vote lovingly given or not.

    Not to mention, this isnt his first rodeo with a tight race. Most of his elections have been close. Furthermore, the Bevin challenge is a weak one. Republicans will come home to mama like all party partisans do.

    Finally, there is this: Can Grimes sell herself well enough so that voters build up resistance to the almost certain negative shelling she is going to take from McConnell. She still isnt well known to the electorate, winning her first statewide seat in the odd year. Voters already know they dont like McConnell. And hes still in there pretty solid. Im not sold on Grimes' effectiveness as a campaigner.

    •  Good post, but there's a presumption in it (0+ / 0-)
      McConnell has incumbency and is actually flowing with the national tide in his state.
      This is a bit ambiguous. Are you suggesting that this will be a Republican year nationally? If so, why do you think so?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 03:52:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In his state, yes. (0+ / 0-)

        Im not convinced its 2010, but it wouldnt be unreasonable to say Dems have a tough map. The GOP candidates are for the most part fairly well positioned. McConnell is pretty well positioned for his state too. Hes unpopular, but so was Harry Reid. McConnell tends his yard.

        •  we had a tough map in 2012, too (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but that didn't translate into a Republican wave. Even if we do lose a number of seats, it isn't necessarily a Republican wave, because we are defending so many in red states that we could lose even without a wave. And I think it is entirely plausible that we can win Kentucky while losing four or five other seats.

          "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

          by James Allen on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 08:02:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Get the "great mentioner" to start mentioning (0+ / 0-)

    that Senate Republicans are going to replace McConnell after 2014. Take away any power he has as minority leader. Throw in a story that Rand Paul will move up to the number 3 spot if Mitch is gone.

    Start this rumor and keep it flowing. If voters think he gone, but they will still have a powerful "voice" in the GOP, it may be worth a few points to the voters in the middle who like the idea their state has a powerful Senator.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)! Follow on Twitter @dopper0189

    by dopper0189 on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 05:52:44 PM PDT

  •  McConnell can lose the primary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Interesting analisys.

    Looking at the numbers I think he is in a dangerous place to survive in a primary vs a candidate that fits better the overall requirements of the Republican primary voters.

    I think he is more vulnerable than B Lincoln to a primary. Just we must remember that the tea party candidate won the primary over the stablishment candidate backed by McConnell in 2010. The electorate to defeat him in the primary is there and is real, only needs a candidate that can appeal them a little more than M McConnell.

    •  Blanche Lincoln? (0+ / 0-)

      We already know she won her primary, so what do you mean about him being more vulnerable than her?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 03, 2014 at 09:47:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes If you read the diary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        McConnel was between Lincoln and Fletcher in popularity, and after Lincoln the rest come not until the general.

        I mean McConnell is in rist of losing also the primary. I think he is more endangered than B Lincoln was, and she also had a serious primary challenge (she won 44.5%-42.5%). I think McConnell can have worse result than Lincoln in the primary because the Republican primary voters showed in 2010 their tea party lean.

  •  Just the sort of in-depth analysis (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I like to read.

  •  The ACA has been a great success in KY (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    This should hurt him if he continues as expected to be totally against it.  I would like to think that even GOP there could figure out their own self interest in this case and retire this dud.

    Never promote men who seek after a state-established religion; it is spiritual tyranny--the worst of despotism. It is turnpiking the way to heaven by human law, in order to establish ministerial gates to collect toll. John Leland

    by J Edward on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 06:21:39 AM PDT

  •  Turtle Eats a Bad Oyster and Resigns. n/t (0+ / 0-)

    Nuclear Reactor = Dirty Bomb

    by olo on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 08:58:13 AM PDT

  •  voting (0+ / 0-)

    All bets are off...the average American voter is the most ignorant, apathetic and self-centered person on the planet.
    That, +plus "citizens united" + election fraud (by the states) could get the devil elected to pope.

  •  McConnell's death knell (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    is not in these charts.  Even Republicans and racists and homophobes in Kentucky can come together for one thing:  Kentucky Basketball.

    Mitch's campaign ad sealed his fate when it mistakenly used images of the 2010 DUKE basketball team celebrating victory instead of the much beloved WILDCATS.  Of course, McConnell's team immediately pulled the offending ad once the furor started and promptly blamed someone else for the error.  Classic Mitch.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

  •  McConnell Doesn't Improve on Further Acquaintance (0+ / 0-)

    His 53% win last time out was a very poor performance for a four-term incumbent with a leadership position in a conservative state.  Most Senators in his position would have chosen to retire at the end of the current term. One never knows what will happen until Election Day, but all the indicators point to a fairly decisive Democratic victory.

  •  Can someone tell me if Kentucky.... (0+ / 0-)

    ....has a state referendum ballot measure process? If so are there Ballot measure proposals likely to be on the ballot that are potent enough to help drive voter turnout?

    Here in Oregon this November looks like it will have a number of hot ballot measure items that I believe will contribute to stronger than typical mid term turnout.

    Is this a possible item in various tight races that our GOTV efforts might track and benefit from knowing about? (politics being local and all)

    Often scary 'Oh No' emails and phone calls focused on one person on the ballot become just so much noise. Easily dismissed. Ads and GOTV calls that focus on a referendum item (minimum wage hike, marriage equality, medical marijuana etc) may be a better topic to use to get some voters up off the couch.

    .....it's on the table, under the watermelon she demurred. Thanks, I was planning on shaving anyway he replied.

    by pdx kirk on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 11:17:49 AM PDT

  •  He proudly endorsed the McCutchon ruling yesterday (0+ / 0-)

    so his numbers are going further south in the near future.  

  •  Hey OP: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Congrats on being featured on RCP!

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

    by Le Champignon on Fri Apr 04, 2014 at 03:23:52 PM PDT

  •  Democrats vs Republicans (0+ / 0-)

    It seems that Democrats have a lot more leeway in their lack of approval than Republicans. Voters are a lot more willing to put aside their disapproval to hold off a Republican than vice versa. For example the first real Democrat to lose was Corzine & the 3rd party vote was almost 2X the margin of loss. He was the 2nd NJ Dem Gov to fail in a row & actually went on a further slide after he left office which could have been obvious to voters. The 2 Reps who are winners are both special cases. L Murkowski had actually been Tea Partied & was running as the 3rd party moderate against a underfunded Dem in a Red State.Rick Perry similarly was able to win wlth only 40% of the vote against a Dem who got less than the 3rd Party in a Red State. Arlen Spector switched to Dem when he lost but that was not bought by PA Dem voters who chose a real Dem instead. My feeling is that McConnells inability to bring home the Pork has made his irascible personality unliked & his opposition to the ACA in a state that has benefited a waste of time. It would be ironic if McConnell was the only victim of Obamacare in 2014  

  •  Mitch has a charisma problem (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    He can hold a Kentucky Rifle up high but probably can't shoot it. The symbolism will not be lost on the voters. Low energy, nothing new to say. No doubt rich by this time from all his corporate connections. I'm hoping the Evangelical vote (75% no matter what) will not be enough this time.

  •  Mom from KY... The Bible Belt. (0+ / 0-)

    The good people of Kentucky have long held the belief that the conservatives were there for them, much of the recent years were because of their strong beliefs against abortion. Some are single issue voters.... todays generation are progressing in their educational and social programs to the advantage of many disadvantaged.

    I don't believe they will ever be true progressives but there are more open minds in KY. toward what they want for their people - MITCH McConnell would have preferred to leave his states people without health care insurance while he reaps the benefit of more than $174,000 a year in salary and his own health insurance benefits, so much vacation time - its like his job is part time and a retirement plan that will maintain his lifestyle.  
    KY has wised up to Washington politics.... I sure hope they vote for the lady who is running and not the KOCH brothers funded GOP candidate that will run against McConnell.. Remember BIG money in politics corrupts politics.

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