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9:15 AM PT: Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso:

Florida HD-44: This was an easy Republican hold on Tuesday night. Eric Eisnaugle will return to the Florida House following his defeat of Democrat Shaun Raja by a 74-26 landslide.
This district went for Mitt Romney by a 53-46 spread, so obviously Democrats didn't contest it at all. And remember, there's another special coming up in Connecticut on Friday.

9:40 AM PT: TX-23: Paulist physician Robert Lowry, who finished third in the GOP primary with 19 percent of the vote, has thrown his support to former CIA agent Will Hurd in the May 27 runoff. Hurd faces ex-Rep. Quico Canseco, whom he edged in the first round of voting by just 0.6 percent. As Joseph Vogas notes, Hurd also had a small lead on Canseco in the 2010 primary (in which Lowry also ran and took third) but wound up losing the runoff by 5. Lowry endorsed Hurd in that race, too, but evidently it wasn't the difference-maker.

10:00 AM PT: IL-Gov: Somewhere out there, there must be some joker (with very angry kids) who's decided to leave his estate to Bill Gates. That guy probably works for the RGA, which is giving another $750,000 to self-funding billionaire Bruce Rauner. That brings the group's total outlay to $1.5 million so far, despite the fact that Rauner has already poured $6 million into his own campaign and can obviously dump in far more. I wonder how Tom Corbett and Sam Brownback feel about all this.

10:53 AM PT: LA-05: A long list of local Republicans—and a couple of Democrats, too—are so far mostly avoiding the question of whether they're interested in running against GOP Rep. Vance McAllister, who was recently caught making out with one of his now-former aides in a campaign office. (McAllister and the staffer are both married to other people.) No one has outright said "no," but some are more keen than others. The Times Picayune's Lauren McGaughy canvasses them all. The first batch all ran in the special election and are sorted by the order they finished in:

State Sen. Neil Riser (R): "too early to be talking about" it
Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo (D): "not planning on running"
Public Service Commissioner Clyde Holloway (R): "very content" with his current job
State Rep. Bob Johnson (D): "certainly very interested."
State Rep. Jay Morris (R): "no comment"
State Rep. Marcus Hunter (D): says he has no plans to run
State Sen. Elbert Guillory (R): keeping his eye on it
State Rep. Charles "Bubba" Chaney (R): not commenting
State Rep. Frank Hoffmann (R): not commenting
Other possible Republicans include state Sen. Mike Walsworth and businessman Harris Brown. While this seat is dark red and Democrats would have a difficult time here under the best of circumstances, four different Democrats split the vote in the special, leaving Mayo to finish just 3 points behind McAllister. Had the party been united, McAllister likely never would have made the runoff. Mindful of this fate, Hunter promises that the party "will be running one Democrat this time, if I have anything to do with it."

11:15 AM PT: MA-Gov: In a new survey from Western New England University, Attorney General Martha Coakley leads Republican businessman Charlie Baker 54-25 in the Massachusetts governor's race, while state Treasurer Steve Grossman also beats Baker, but by a smaller 38-29 spread. For whatever reason, Coakley's advantage has increased since WNEU last polled the contest in October, when she led 54-34; Grossman's edge, on the other hand, has shrunk a bit from his earlier 43-30 lead.

12:21 PM PT: AK-, LA-, MI-Sen: Freedom Partners, the shadowy "secret bank" at the top of the Koch brothers' pyramid, has released three more ads attacking Democrats in Senate races: Alaska Sen. Mark Begich, Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, and Michigan Rep. Gary Peters. The ads all deploy the same attack on Obamacare from the left, just as Freedom Partners' first spots in Colorado and Iowa did. Each Democrat is accused of "taking thousands" from the insurance industry in exchange for supporting Obamacare, which "gave health insurance companies billions."

It's a pretty neat trick for a conservative organization to slam Democrats as insurance industry shills for passing a health care plan originally developed by ... a conservative organization. But this is politics, and if Freedom Partners' polling shows that populist criticisms of the Affordable Care Act earn them more mileage than right-wing complaints, they're smart to use them.

12:23 PM PT (David Jarman): Elections: Daily Kos Elections fans are likely to have opinions about which elections bureaus are the best ones, but it probably turns on factors like who reports results the fastest or has the most thorough collection of historical results. There are many other factors, though, that go into whether an elections department is effective: return and rejection rates for mail-in, military, or provisional ballots, voter wait times, voter registration rates and turnout, recordkeeping completeness, post-election audits, and more.

Pew has tried to consolidate all that information into one state-to-state ranking. The results may or may not surprise you: the good-government states in the country's north central tier come out on top (North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are the top 3 for 2012), while the south and northeast dominate among the worst (with Mississippi, Oklahoma, and California the bottom 3). You can click through to see how each state fares on each factor, so there's a lot to explore.

12:26 PM PT: NE-Sen: Rasmussen: David Domina (D): 27, Ben Sasse (R): 52; Domina: 27, Shane Osborn (R): 48.

12:33 PM PT: IA-Sen, -Gov: Suffolk University's new poll of Iowa's Senate race finds Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley beating all five GOP hopefuls he's paired with, but the undecideds are huge—around a third of the electorate. In every case, Braley takes around 37-38 percent of the vote while the Republicans score in the 20s. And in the gubernatorial race, which features a longtime incumbent seeking re-election, a quarter are still undecided, as Republican Gov. Terry Branstad "only" leads Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch 42-32.

1:00 PM PT: GA-Sen: The Republican Senate primary in Georgia is about to get even more turbulent, with the American Future Fund now endorsing former Secretary of State Karen Handel—and preparing to spend on her behalf. AFF's move follows one from Ending Spending, which has already put over $1 million into the race slamming both GOP Rep. Phil Gingrey and presumptive Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn. Who Ending Spending is for, however, remains a mystery.

1:20 PM PT (Darth Jeff): President-by-LD: Stephen Wolf brings us another set of interactive maps visualizing the results of the 2012 presidential result by state legislative seat. This time he brings us Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and South Dakota.

There's a lot of interesting stuff here: For example, the Republican hold on the Michigan House looks potentially tenuous given Gov. Rick Snyder's mediocre approval rating. Over in Minnesota the court-drawn House map gives Republicans a chance to retake the chamber after two years of Democratic control. For previous editions of this series see here and here.  

1:33 PM PT: WI-Gov: St. Norbert's new Wisconsin poll somehow has GOP Gov. Scott Walker up 56-40 on Democrat Mary Burke, despite the fact that no other pollster has ever shown him in the 50s, and he's never sported a lead of more than 7 points. This one has "outlier" written all over it.

1:50 PM PT: NE-02: Businessman Dan Frei has leaked an internal showing Rep. Lee Terry with just a 47-36 lead in the GOP primary. But Frei (whose campaign is penniless) is refusing to share the pollster's name, and we all know what that means.

1:54 PM PT: FL-13: St. Pete Polls finds that newly elected GOP Rep. David Jolly would beat Democrat Alex Sink, his rival in last month's special election, by just a 48-46 spread in a rematch. That's identical to Jolly's actual margin of victory, so it's a bit surprising he hasn't gotten any kind of bounce off of his win, assuming St. Pete is accurate. (For what it's worth, their final poll before the special had the race tied at 46, but it came two weeks before Election Day.) Sink says she's still considering a second bid.

1:58 PM PT: LA-05: But can McAllister really hang on? Unnamed sources tell The Hill that state GOP chair Roger Villere has been trying to talk to McAllister so that he can ask him to resign, but McAllister has allegedly been ducking Villere's calls and emails. Usually this just means that the pressure will soon get directed through public, rather than private, channels.

2:20 PM PT: PA-Gov: Another new ad from Democratic businessman Tom Wolf, this time featuring his daughters praising their dad for his encouragement while Wolf adds that there's "no excuse" for the wage gap between men and women.

2:25 PM PT: SD-Sen: In his first ad of the campaign, Democrat Rick Weiland invokes some very Howard Dean-esque themes. The narrator addresses those who want to "take back our country" and rattles off a list of South Dakota towns, concluding with the message that "we promise they'll be hearing us all the way to D.C."

2:31 PM PT: MI-03: Businessman Brian Ellis' second ad of the GOP primary attacks Rep. Justin Amash for his vote against a bill that would have banned "gender selection abortions," just as he did in first spot. Ellis also hits Amash for another iconoclastic "nay," this time against a balanced amendment, and adds that Amash "voted with President Obama 51 percent of the time—the most of any Republican," citing CQ scores.

2:34 PM PT: The size of the buy is around $75,000.

2:39 PM PT: MI-Gov: I'm going to stab someone if I have to watch another one of these RGA "Schauer is over" ads.

2:43 PM PT: NM-Gov: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez is out with her first ad of her re-election campaign. It's a minute-long laundry list that claims a million different accomplishments, but the most interesting bit comes at the start, when the narrator mentions that Martinez was "the first Hispanic woman governor in American history." Later, the narrator says that in New Mexico, "Hispanics lead the nation on Advanced Placement tests," so Martinez is evidently trying to reach out to the state's considerable Latino community.

2:49 PM PT: OK-Sen-B: In his newest ad, Republican T.W. Shannon attacks Barack Obama for "pushing people into dependency." Continues Shannon: "When government becomes the provider, all of God's children suffer." He adds that when he served as speaker of the state House, he "passed a measure requiring welfare recipients to work for their benefits." Meanwhile, a group called the First Amendment Alliance is running a platitude-filled spot praising Rep. James Lankford for fighting "President Obama's intrusive government."

2:58 PM PT: FL-19: The Tea Party Express is trying to prove its not just a bunch of grifters making a name (and money) for itself off of the "tea party" label with a new ad in support of Republican businessman Curt Clawson. The spot features several different local tea party leaders all praising Clawson, though of course, it probably would have been easy enough to find another batch of tea party leaders all ready to say the exact opposite.

3:23 PM PT (Darth Jeff): 1Q Fundraising:

GA-Sen: Paul Broun (R): $345,000 raised, $230,000 cash-on-hand; Phil Gingrey (R): $326,000 raised

VA-Sen: Mark Warner (D-inc): $2.7 million raised, $8.8 million cash-on-hand

CA-21: Amanda Renteria (D): "More than $300,000" raised

CA-33: David Kanuth (D): "Over $800,000" raised (in less than two months)

CO-05: Irv Halter (D): $165,000 raised, $217,000 cash-on-hand

CO-06: Andrew Romanoff (D): $604,000 raised, $2.1 million cash-on-hand

IL-10: Brad Schneider (D-inc): $550,000 raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand; Bob Dold! (R): $520,000 raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand

PA-13: Daylin Leach (D): $335,000 raised, $660,000 cash-on-hand

WV-03: Nick Rahall (D-inc): $325,000 raised, $1.1 million cash-on-hand; Evan Jenkins(R): $200,000 raised, $500,000 cash-on-hand

DSCC (D): $8.1 million raised (in March), $22 million cash-on-hand

 

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 06:00:53 AM PDT

  •  New job (43+ / 0-)

    Happy to announce I'll be moving to New Mexico next week to run Catherine Begaye's campaign for state house. Thrilled to explore a new state and work with a great candidate in one of the most competitive state lege races this year.

    Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 8 states across America. Managed races in VA and DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 06:21:50 AM PDT

  •  Huckabee Visits Iowa, Hilitary Ensues (9+ / 0-)

    Via LOLGOP and the DKE Twitter feeds, Kathie Obradovich from the Des Moines Register listens to a speech by Gov. Mike Huckabee. In addition to all sorts insights about America being messed up because we subsidize those who cheat and steal, how the IRS is a criminal enterprise, and how we don't respect our biblical roots, he offered his thoughts on men and women:

    ...men like to go hunt/fish with other men. “Women like to go to the restroom with other women.”
    I'm not making this up.

    No word yet whether Uncle Sugar makes an appearance.

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 06:46:16 AM PDT

  •  PA-LT-Gov fundraising #s (3+ / 0-)

    The PPG put in the effort:

    State Sen. Mike Stack appeared to be way ahead of the Democratic lieutenant governor's pack in cash on hand at he end of the first quarter.

    Stack reported that he had roughly $700,000 on hand at the end of the first quarter.  Among his rivals who had filed their first quarter reports, only Bradford County Commissioner Mark Smith was also in six figures, with $144,319 in cash.  Former U.S. Rep. Mark Critz was in some big-spending races during his brief congressional career, but he's taking a more frugal route this time, reporting about $37,000 in cash after spending $89,000 in the first three months of the year.

    State Rep. Bradford Neuman had a balance of $19,000 in one campaign committee and $45,000 in a separate fund-raising committe formed for the lieutenant governor's race.  Harrisburg Councilman Brad Koplinski reported $28,474 in cash on hand, but also had a debt of $15,000.

  •  PPP Michigan (16+ / 0-)

    A few more nuggets from PPP's recent poll in Michigan:

    - 54% of those polled still have no opinion of Schauer, which is essentially a mark of name recognition.

    - 44% of voters said they'd repeal Michigan's "Right-to-Work" legislation, while 34% said they want to keep it in place.

    - Virtually unknown Democratic attorney general candidate Mark Totten still polls well against incumbent AG Bill Schuette.  Bill Schuette retains a 36/33 edge, which is amazing since no one knows Mark Totten (80% have no opinion of him).

    - Legislative Democrats have a slightly-above-water favorability rating (41/39), while the favorabilit rating for legislative Republicans is 29/51.  I wonder what they could do to improve that number, and just how much they can hope to improve it?  These numbers would get us back the state house.

    - The sample actually has a lower number of Democrats than what usually turn out for the election, a pretty spot-on percentage of Republicans, and an usually high percentage oof"independents".  The split is 35D/35I/30R.  This shows also in the fact that 50% of those polled said they voted for Obama, and 42% for Romney, with the actual result of that election being closer to a 10 point split.

    I think even with Schauer still behind three points, that this bodes well for when the campaign really kicks into gear for Democrats in Michigan.

    •  Oh yes, it does. (6+ / 0-)

      Snyder already has low favorables baked in, and it doesn't look like Schauer has the kind of record (think Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron, or some kind of Democratic mirror image of her) Snyder can turn into a huge negative.

      And I'm relieved to see Gary Peters' numbers improving in the Senate race. I always expected him to pull it out in the end. But if his campaign can start to build and maintain a firm lead over Terri Lynn Land, that should bode well for your entire ticket this fall.

      •  Schauer's Record (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, JBraden, wadingo, atdnext

        Schauer does have a rather extensive record.  Before his term in Congress, he was a state legislature for years.  But, yeah, it's going to be pretty hard to make his voting record a negative in this state.  He's about as mainstream as they come for a state like this.

        Something else still sitting on the burner that has yet to totally heat up is "Furniture-gate", in which Snyder still has to answer for doubling a 2012 state furniture contract for a company his cousin owns in Lansing after his cousin emailed his office lamenting the possible loss of the contract.  He's tried to push the issue off, but this strikes me as something that could grow into a full-blown scandal.

        As impatient I am for Schauer to just burst out on the scene, I don't see how Snyder ever gets out the woods short of just destroying Schauer.  Even without the scandal, he continues to be stuck in the 40's.

    •  Ya know, when I saw that MI lege Dems fave # (5+ / 0-)

      I thought, "That's really high! A positive number for sitting lawmakers anywhere is pretty amazing."

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:48:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  *unusually* (0+ / 0-)

      I meant that the poll had an unusually high amount of respondants reporting themselves as "independents."  I kind of wonder if this isn't just how kind of soft Dems self-identify so far out from an election here in Michigan?  For whatever reasons, pollsters have a hard time finding self-identified Dems in Michigan, at least relative to how they identify come election day.  This is my second theory on this. lol  My first was that they have a hard time getting Detroiters to pick up the phone. lol

  •  MA Gov: Coakley 54 Baker 25 (13+ / 0-)

    Western New England

    http://www.masslive.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 07:06:19 AM PDT

  •  Who knew scrap metal is so important? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, Gygaxian, wadingo

    Hillary Clinton is coming to town tomorrow to address a conference on it.

  •  DSCC Outraises NRSC ... Again (17+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    DSCC: 8.1 mil raised, 22.2 mil COH

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

    by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 07:16:20 AM PDT

    •  Caveat (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, gabjoh, wadingo

      I think it's important to mention that with Citizens United, this just means that conservatives have been giving more of their money to outside groups than Demorats.  So, I'm not sure how much of a surprise it is, anymore, when the Democratic Party and its related legislative groups outraises the GOP.

      And, a caveat on that point is that there is evidence from the past few elections that these third parties are far harder for elected Republicans to control and have actually help result in the failure of some of their candidates.  It's perhaps the only silver lining in all of this.

      •  But what have Democratic outside groups (0+ / 0-)

        raised? Has anyone attempted to consistently add up the totals of all donations besides those to the candidates themselves?

        I should also add that races do matter. It's far more important the Kochs try to restore a free society work to defeat Hagan than if they try to drop a lot on a joke like Brown, and looking at the sheer total can be somewhat deceiving.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 07:39:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's always very deceptive (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MetroGnome, gabjoh, wadingo

          to talk about how much outside groups have raised by a given date. With no contribution limits, they can go from $100k to $20m in a matter of a few days. And sometimes they do that on purpose (with the gifts long since promised).

          •  Well, sure, but I'm just saying that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext

            our side isn't merely sitting on its hands. To a get sense of just how big the onslaught might be, we need to compare it to what our side is doing. That's very hard, because of the intentionally byzantine form these things take, but it's necessary to really understand the problem.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:08:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Just to be clear (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp, gabjoh, wadingo

              My point wasn't that the Dem legislative group outraising the GOP legislative group isn't significant, because it is.  My only point is that we should be careful in not overstating not knowing the outside group numbers, and knowing that Republican outside groups are far more likely to vacuum up money that would otherwise go to the committees and party apparatus than on the Democratic side.

              •  I'm happy with that arrangement (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh, wadingo, atdnext, MetroGnome

                The Kochs don't have access to the apparatii that the national party has. They also allocate their resources very strangely - do they seriously think they're going to pick up a seat in Michigan? They're batshit crazy, and so long as they're keeping their money in-house instead of giving it to seasoned political operatives who know what they're doing, they're going to keep misallocating it to unwinnable races, or allocating it in ways that do not produce a great deal of votes per dollar spent. That kind of inefficiency lets us win despite being theoretically outraised.

                TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

                by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:19:29 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  They also pay more for ad -time than parties (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, wadingo, HoosierD42, MetroGnome

                  and candidates.

                •  I think there's more potential for (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, wadingo

                  problems, even if the end result isn't always successful for them. I mean, it's estimated that if the Koch Brothers keep up the pace they are already setting, they'll spend $27 million in North Carolina alone. That's only slightly less than both Dole and Hagan spent on their campaigns themselves in 2008 (around $28 million, or around $30.5 million in 2014 dollars). That's just a lot of money.

                  They appear to be more strategic than some of the sky is falling mentalities on our side would suggest, but still, is there anything preventing them from deciding to drop $30 million to try to prop up Brown in New Hampshire?

                  "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

                  by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:34:09 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Let them (0+ / 0-)

                    Money doesn't vote, and Shaheen is as safe as we can get in a swing state. If it means they're not spending it in Alaska or some other more vulnerable race, then I'm happy.

                    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

                    by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:44:46 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  That's just it: these people aren't limited (0+ / 0-)

                      like we are. They won't simply spend as if there's no tomorrow, for a few reasons, but they could probably get very close to that point without a problem. You're right that it won't make a difference if they supported Brown, but I mentioned him because they don't have to make a choice between him and Gardner and Cotton and Land.

                      And of course, it's not just them.

                      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

                      by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:49:46 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-GOV: Donnelly still ahead of Kashkari (15+ / 0-)

    according to the latest Field Poll.

    Great news for Brown. His approval rating is at an all time high, 59%.

    Among LV, the results are:
    Brown-57
    Donnelly-17
    Blount-3
    Kashkari-2

    Kashkari has time  but if he has money, he might want to start spending it. He has been in the race since mid-Jan, and is in the low single digits. I didnt even know who Blount was(he is the mayor of Laguna Beach).

    Donnelly is preferred over Kashkari among GOP voters, 34-3(17% actually say they will vote for Brown!), and even among "decline to state" voters, Donnelly is preferred 15-1 over Kashkari.

    link.

    •  Governor Moonbeam (10+ / 0-)

      I have to say I am impressed at his ability to rebrand himself and his proverbial rise from the ashes.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:03:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nice. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, atdnext, bythesea

      He gets to Round 2 and Brown gets to run against a wingnut.  I hope Dems also tie Repubs up and downballot to him in that event.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:32:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Brown versus Donnelly = (10+ / 0-)

      the largest margin for a Democratic candidate in modern history. He'll outdo Diane Feinstein's 2012 margin. Devestating for Republican attempts to break the 2/3rds Democratic legislative majority.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:09:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I also hope (0+ / 0-)

        Dems tie Repubs in key districts to him.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:10:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno. Maybe he will... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, JBraden, bythesea

        Or maybe Donnelly will be able to shore up the entire "vote for anyone with a R after his name" vote, which tends to be in the mid to upper 30s in California.

        But yes, I have a hard time seeing Donnelly break above 40% state, even in a midterm cycle. He'll definitely let Brown run up the score in the Bay Area & LA County. He'll probably help Brown flip San Diego County, and he may even put Orange County in play. And so long as all this happens, Democratic legislators and Members of Congress can breathe more easily. (Ami Bera, Julia Brownley, Raul Ruiz, and Scott Peters must especially be grateful for Tim Donnelly volunteering to top the California G-O-TEA ticket this year!)

      •  I'm not sure (0+ / 0-)

        DiFi had a worse opponent, but DiFi also ran in a year with much higher minority turnout and is probably better liked even than Brown.  I don't think Donnelly can change the Hispanic turnout that much considering he has no chance at winning and they will realize that.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:13:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Orange County here we come (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, jj32

      Will Gov. Brown win the county?  He's certainly headed for something like a 65-35 overall win at least.

      •  Again, don't get too excited... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, bythesea

        Just yet. Republicans tend to have a 35-36% floor in California, so Donnelly may be able to at least prevent that floor from collapsing. But even so, that will still give Brown a chance to reach Obama/Feinstein level numbers... And that definitely bodes well for the rest of the Democratic ticket.

        •  Yeah, it would interesting to see if he (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          atdnext

          could get over 35%.

          Emken got 37.5%. That was in a presidential year against a popular incumbent, but then again, Emken seemed like an okay candidate, relatively speaking, not gaffe prone.

          I imagine there would be a lot of a gaffes from Donnelly. And I would be surprised if GOP challengers in tough races in the US House and state legislature endorse Donnelly for governor.  

          •  They can't run all that far... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32

            From him, since he will likely be their Gubernatorial Nominee. But yes, I wouldn't be surprised if some candidates in the San Diego, Central Coast, & Sacramento areas at least try. Even if Donnelly can hold the McCain/Romney/Emken 36-37% floor, that probably means Brown will be winning San Diego, Ventura, & Santa Barbara Counties fairly comfortably while running up the score in Sacramento and carrying at least a couple other Central Valley Counties. And that doesn't bode well for a number of Republicans down ballot.

          •  I hope Orange County flips (6+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, jncca, bythesea, atdnext, ArkDem14, pademocrat

            But I don't think it will, it always seems to vote more Republican during midterm years than Presidential election years. However though, Whitman ran up the score in Orange because of the Newport Beach voters while Donnelly might be so far right he would help Brown do well with the upper income libertarian voters.

            I would see Brown getting 47%-48% but not 50% but I really hope Brown does. It would be nice to win Orange County and this would be the election where we could do it.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

            by Alibguy on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:51:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  hard to say (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          atdnext

          The governor race usually gets a lot of attention, but it might not this year. The GOP can't win anything statewide anymore, and Brown is untouchable regardless of who the GOP runs. If it gets as little attention as the similarly uncompetitive Senate race got in 2012, casual voters might just see Donnelly as generic R and blow off the election rather than voting to make a point of rejecting him. In that case, Donnelly could get close to 40% of the vote.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:24:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I Doubt It..... (0+ / 0-)

        .....not in a midterm.  If Dianne Feinstein couldn't beat Dick Mountjoy there, I'm not betting on Jerry.

        •  Dick Mountjoy (0+ / 0-)

          the California candidate of whom we all had the most fun making risque jokes at his expense, at least until the (dubious) Carl DeMaio story of self-satisfaction surfaced last summer.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:25:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Donnelly may be a bridge too far (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27, ArkDem14

          He's from outer Sen Bernardino County and he's illegally used guns and is something of a jackass even with his staff.  Kashkari, on the other hand, would be a blah generic Republican they could vote for without issue.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:35:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  yeah I was gonna say (0+ / 0-)

            Donnelly has ties with what some have referred to as the "patriot movement".

            more anti-conservative than liberal

            by bonzo925 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 07:32:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  He FOUNDED the Minutemen in CA in 2005. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            TSA found a loaded unregistered handgun in his carry-on in 2012.  He did not have a concealed-carry permit and is still on probation from that incident.  He has an open tax lien (which he claims is paid) from the industrial equipment business that he operated until 2011.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:07:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I think this is the second poll showing (0+ / 0-)

      Kashkari getting basically no traction.

      Again I wonder if it is time for an ad campaign, and if he will start getting some of the GOP establishment(Pete Wilson, Condi Rice) to campaign for him.

      There just seems to be no enthusiasm for Kashkari, and I think that's understandable. It seems like he has a lot of the baggage of the corporate world, without anyone of the benefits, like having successful started/run a company.

    •  Blount is the mayor of Laguna Hills (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      not Laguna Beach.  Laguna Hills is R+11, Laguna Beach is D+4.

      Blount would be the Republican with the potential to have the best numbers versus Brown.  No money though so hard to see him getting over the (at least) 15% of so needed to finish second.

      All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

      by tommypaine on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:46:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY19: I get that Sean Eldrige is a political newb (3+ / 0-)

    And I know this link is Politico, which likes to misrepresent things, but come on Eldrige, what are you even doing? I know nothing about your Hudson-based district and even I could probably run a better campaign, mostly because I would actually go out and meet with the voters!

    Gah, I probably shouldn't criticize, but bad Dem campaigns in winnable districts really tick me off.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 07:45:53 AM PDT

    •  It doesn't say he's not meeting with (5+ / 0-)

      voters. It seems more like he's not doing it effectively, by not creating an image for himself and possibly allowing the idea that he's trying to buy the seat over a more middle class local resident. It's not clear that this is going to hurt him, assuming it's even a factor, but why take the chance? The article says that people whose companies he's invested in come away with a positive image of him--not one of him being stinkin' rich, which he is, but where he comes across as more normal. Why not expand on that?

      I don't have any reason to feel strongly one way or another about the race, but if this article is an indication he's got some work to do, why not have Eldridge take a page from Gibson's book and meet with voters until late in the night, for several nights in a row, all throughout the district? He can just sit and listen, for the most part.

      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

      by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 07:58:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Running for office is hard work (8+ / 0-)

        It is not, as it is in the UK, a matter of finding a winnable seat and then having the party do the grunt work as you show up to a debate or two and intellectually discourse on policy. It's about really hard, in many cases really stupid back-breaking work, that is not very fun.

        A lot of self-funding candidates like the idea of being politicians because they want to be important, suddenly realize the process is not fun, and then try to buy their way out of it. This is why they are so vulnerable to unscrupulous staffers - not because they don't have good ones, but because the bad ones offer them what they want to hear, a way to win by only doing the fun stuff and spending money to make the other things go away.

        Eldridge is giving the impression of someone who was passionate about politics in college and during the Same-Sex marriage campaign, and decided to run for office on that basis. The Marriage Equality campaign was however primarily lobbying this is not.

        If you want a good contrast, take a look at Elise Stefanik, who despite a privileged background, actually did political work at the WH and on the Hill and clearly has a clear idea of what it entails. Not only that, she has systematically eliminated both her primary and general opposition before election day.

        •  Has Stefanik really done that? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, gabjoh, wadingo

          As far as Eldridge, I think your comments are right, but I wouldn't say he's beyond doing the work. Maybe he is, but that much isn't clear. I guess you could say I hope a local Democrat is trying to get the message that you're saying across to him.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:52:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Eldridge (7+ / 0-)

      The House really isn't an entry-level position for someone with a resume as thin as his. He'd be taken more seriously if he started with a lower level office such as township, county, or even the state legislature. He'd also be less prone to rookie mistakes if he'd had to run an actual campaign before. He might be a good candidate down the road, but for now he's just a noob with a big wallet.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:41:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This guy frustrates me. (4+ / 0-)

      I should dislike him so much, considering what he is (oh Lord, that carpetbagging - I think he was caught with his pants down when Sean P. Maloney won in the far less urban NY-18 where they bought the first mansion), how he's handling the race and my disappointment. I liked that he appeared to bother about campaign finance, a very important issue that is easily forgotten.

      But because I'm an objectifying tool, I'm investing too much in the guy. Gosh darn it already, stop being useless. It's probably almost too late, though - Gibson is getting more entrenched by the day and appears to be a solid cultural fit, if not political. He's probably a LoBiondo stayer type.

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:26:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This article makes me so angry. (6+ / 0-)

      Especially since it seems to be a smear written because he didn't invite the media to events. We've been petitioning for the last month. Who wants reporters showing up at their door when they already have to deal with a politician and a legal form?

      Mean while, Gibson gets to skate as "Most Liberal Republican"™. He's only voted to dismantle medicaid and ban abortion a little! But everything Sean has ever done is suspect; even fighting for the right to marry who he wants.

      Sorry to get so fired up in your thread. My home district, I like my candidate and feel compelled to stick up for him.

      •  it is a smear (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nonsensoleum

        But the problem for Eldridge is that virtually all the coverage has covered a similar, highly negative narrative whether it be the NYT Society page, the local papers, or the Washington press corp. That indicates a serious media relations problem.

        Behind that lies the narrow line in American politics between admiration of success and scheudenfreuden at the fall of those better of than ourselves. Eldridge seems  to have fallen on the wrong side of that line, possibly because unable emphasizing the way he made his money (longtime banker, founded company) how he's spent it (houses) has become far more important.  He's run into the wall of class warfare that most of the reporters are his age or older,  feel they have worked harder, then look at him and see whatrhe has, and feel their own scheduenfreuden.  Maybe he couod have avoided this, and maybe not, but it also may be bad idea to run candidates whose biographies make them intrinsically unlikable regardless of their actual character.

        •  Local coverage of him has actually been very (0+ / 0-)

          positive, though politically neutral and focusing on his business and it's investments. But this meme in the national media does seem to run deep.

          Ironically, the local reporters are certainly paid less and older than the national ones too.

      •  I did point out that the source was Politico (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nonsensoleum

        So I wasn't sure if it was correct or not.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 06:09:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Gibson has limited himself to four terms (0+ / 0-)

      we'll have a better shot in 2018.

      more anti-conservative than liberal

      by bonzo925 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 07:33:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Possible IL state constitutional convention (6+ / 0-)

    Willie Delgado, a Democratic member of the Illinois State Senate, is publicly calling for a constitutional convention in Illinois over the Citizens United and McCutcheon SCOTUS decisions. I'm not sure if he's trying to call a federal constitutional convention or a state constitutional convention.

    The resolution calling for a constitutional convention would need 3/5ths approval by both houses of the Illinois General Assembly (I highly doubt that will happen, although I can't completely rule out that possibility) and then would have to be approved by voters.

    •  Certainly very much a tactic to explore/consider (5+ / 0-)

      in terms of motivating voters to actually turn out, especially in blue-leaning states. Though how much of it would turn out to be a distraction, and a negative (e.g. they're trying to repeal the second amendment and take away our guns!), versus a positive, is up in the air.

      (That is to also say, my thoughts on the prospect of actually successfully overturning Citizens United are very grim - but I do think an organized push on a constitutional amendment would be helpful on the issue.)

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

      by gabjoh on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:17:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-03: A Challenger Arises (7+ / 0-)

    GOP Paulite Congressman Justin Amash has attracted his first Democratic opponent in the Grand Rapids-based MI-03:

    GRAND RAPIDS, MI — Local businessman Bob Goodrich has announced he is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge U.S. Rep. Justin Amash for the Third District.

    Goodrich, the owner and president of Goodrich Quality Theaters, filed a statement of organization with the Federal Elections Commission last week to officially establish his campaign. A call to the campaign for comment was not immediately returned.

    According to his website, "Bob strives to introduce a new political conversation to West Michigan. He is shifting focus to the individual. And not simply getting the vote of the citizen, but listening to their story and figuring out solutions for the difficulties that many face everyday."

    ...

    Goodrich has worked with his theater company since 1967, his website states. He also earned a bachelor's degree from the University of Michigan, in addition to law degrees from the University of Michigan and New York University.

    I'm not sure if this makes the race competitive, but Goodrich is independently wealthy, which at least makes his campaign a serious one in that regard.  It's good to have serious candidates running in all 14 districts, as even if they lose a serious candidate can help pull some state senate and house races over the line in their respective congressional districts, and possibly close state-wide races.

    That said, Dems have to get moving very quickly in MI-4, MI-08, and MI-11 with the petition deadline quickly approaching.

    •  Definitely good to have someone just in case (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      it gets really ugly - and also good that it's a non-elected, something of a tabula rasa. He will hopefully position himself to appeal either to the Chamber of Commerce types who want an actual functioning government (if Amash wins), or the civil-liberties, isolationist crowd (if Amash's challenger wins).

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

      by gabjoh on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:20:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good and Pretty Stunning News About the ACA (10+ / 0-)

    Via Kevin Drum and TIE blogger Adrianna McIntyre, we see that 8.2 million additional people now have employer-sponsored insurance. What's incredible--and this is not merely my reaction--is that 7.2 million of these people didn't have it before. This simply blows up the predictions from the CBO, and it seems like the worry that employers would not hold steady but drop people from their rolls hasn't come true. Quite the opposite, in fact.

    So, it's a pretty unforeseen development. I'm putting this here, as opposed to the policy thread (is that even up yet?), because it means a potential major headache hasn't happened. Can you imagine the shit storm we'd be seeing if the opposite were true?

    In addition to the good to possibly great Medicaid numbers, it looks like we're seeing better and better news about the ACA.

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:46:53 AM PDT

    •  So.. (0+ / 0-)

      Brainwrap says we have as many as 32.8 million people on Obamacare as of today. I bet many of these people do not typically vote.

      Bet some of them will in November for the first time...

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:52:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's probably too general of a figure. (0+ / 0-)

        I'm not sure you can lump all of these people together.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:54:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I would be surprised if a majority of those people (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, LordMike, wadingo, jncca

        realize that they're "on Obamacare."

        No one is directly on Obamacare; they're on private insurance or Medicaid or their parent's insurance thanks to Obamacare (which, furthermore, is labeled KYnect or whatever at the state level), and it's not like you get a little notice saying 'Welcome to Obamacare!' This is one reason that, even if it fades as political issue, I doubt it ever becomes an electoral boon for Democrats.

        •  More specifically, if you're getting ESI, (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, LordMike, wadingo, bythesea

          you're not on Medicaid and, I am pretty sure, aren't getting subsidies. There might be some minor reason the ACA is incentivizing more employers to offer insurance, but much it's less of a direct connection than going on the site and shopping.

          I wouldn't say that it's not going to be electorally fruitful for our side, though. The Republicans are boxed in on this issue to a large degree. They either maintain near staunch opposition, which makes the battle lines clearer, or they accept the major contours of universal insurance, which means we're dealing with the issue on our terms.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:10:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Community rating for small groups is huge (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp

            It started Jan 1st, 2014.  

            http://www.acscan.org/...

            Tax credits for small employers (<25FTE's, <$50K avg salary) also stepped up in TY2014 to 50% of premiums paid on behalf of employees if at least 50% of premium is covered by employer and coverage is obtained thru SHOP:

            http://www.irs.gov/...

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:36:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Also gotta love Brainwrap's graphs: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:02:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't forget Cohn's article: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:03:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Throw (0+ / 0-)

      me under that 8.2 million people that now have employer-sponsored insurance.

      Granted the tradeoff for that for me was that my hours got cut to 24 per week (though technically my hours fluctuated from 16-40 per week since I was considered on-call at my company), but....I'm still in college and living at home with my parents so the pros outweighed the cons in this situation. Plus my work schedule is more steady now and I can cram in an internship now.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:24:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's too early to read too much (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, KingofSpades

      into these numbers.

      But if I'm not mistaken, employer sponsored coverage increased in MA after their reform bill passed. Even though their employer mandate penalty was weaker than the one in ACA.

      And that was surprising, even to advocates of the MA law.

    •  Big problem with excitement over this study... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, wwmiv

      ...is that the margin of error is huge.

      It's something like +/- 3.6 million.

      Huge grain of salt, people are getting too excited over this.

      The biggest good thing is the source:  Rand is a libertarian outfit, not on our side, finding good numbers for something they wouldn't want to validate.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:45:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good point, but... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Taget

        If you don't follow it, The Incidental Economist is an excellent blog about health care economics and policy. The fact that one of its contributors is treating this as legitimately good news tells me, an amateur, that it's okay to be excited over it, even with the margin of error.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:54:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  RAND is libertarian? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, redrelic17, DCCyclone

        I always understood them to be non-partisan. Hell, they get funding from the U.S. government. Are you sure you're not thinking of Reason?

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:59:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My first thought was the (0+ / 0-)

          Ayn Rand Institute of Never Mind All the Anti-Religion.

          Republicans would probably cite their studies non-stop.

        •  It's controversial just how to view RAND (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, gabjoh

          RAND started as a defense research arm, indeed founded by a military aircraft manufacturer, and those origins gave it a naturally conservative bent.  But the scientific nature of its work and the lack of any religious influence is what let to a libertarian image.

          It's become more respected during my adult life as more genuinely non-partisan and non-ideological, particularly in the post-Cold War era, but not everyone trusts that.  Here's an example, a definitely slanted one and not one I buy completely, but there is some merit in this author's perspective:  http://www.alternet.org/...

          The bottom line is that RAND isn't ideological by current design and certainly less so in practice than ever before.  But its history is such that I'm still honestly surprised if they do a study on social or economic policy that sides with liberals.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 05:58:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, I knew there was something off about (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            the RAND Corporation's origins aside from their ominous name.  I recall that in "Doctor Strangelove," the titular doctor (an ex-Nazi like von Braun as it is made abundantly clear), when asked about the USA's scrapped plan to build a doomsday device, said that studies into the practicality of such a device were carried out by the "Bland Corporation."

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 06:13:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  That's an interesting link (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, KingofSpades, gabjoh

            But it certainly doesn't make RAND sound libertarian. Those guys (the Paulists, at least) tend to be isolationist. This makes RAND seem incredibly bellicose.

            Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

            by David Nir on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:16:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Here is my devious Mississippi map (10+ / 0-)

    and it's a telling comment on the power of gerrymandering (though non-VRA compliant).

     photo ms_zpscb444f22.jpg

    First, my blue district is, despite the inclusion of Southhaven, actually a better representation of transportation networks and is a more cohesive district in terms of geography and economy than the current one is. It's got a 48% black voting age population, 51% total population is black, and gave Obama 55% of the vote and is a safe Democratic district.

    My Mississippi politico friend said what I did at the Scott-Newton county border to hook Rankin in with Tupelo (as more aggressive Mississippi Democrats wanted to do in the 2002 redistrict to protect Ronnie Shows and send Wicker and Pickering against each other in a primary), "makes kittens cry." The green is a 50-48% Obama district, but one with a faster growing minority population and stronger Democratic trend than the first, particularly given the trends in Hattiesburg, Hinds County, and south Madison county. Thus a state that gave Romney 56% of the vote can have a 2-2 map.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:58:36 AM PDT

  •  NJ: Quinn poll has Christie approval decaying: (10+ / 0-)

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:04:19 AM PDT

    •  The big takeaway to me in this poll... (5+ / 0-)

      ...is the repeat of a phenomenon I'd noticed with Obama, where if the overall image declines or improves for a seemingly obvious reason or two, the numbers on all the more specific polled items also decline or improve in tandem.

      What I mean is how if Obama's overall job approval drops because of, say, the failed federal health insurance exchange rollout, we then see polls show his approval rating decline on things like foreign policy.

      Same thing here with Christie:  his approvals have declined on handling things like the economy and the state budget, even though his scandals have nothing to do with those things.

      This is interesting how respondents answer questions these days:  they let one thing color everything.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:43:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In response to jncca's WA diary and discussion (8+ / 0-)

    I came up with this for a California-style commission map:
     photo WANon-PartisanMap2014-4-9Pierce-ThurstonStateView_zpscb7bc99a.png
     photo WANon-PartisanMap2014-4-9Pierce-ThurstonSummary_zpsc8a0d1a3.png

    The only thing I dislike about it is eastern Pierce County in the 9th rather than the 10th (seems like a Dem gerrymander), but that allows Tacoma to anchor its own district and for the Gig Harbor area to be attached to it. I see no reason why the 8th should extend down to Pierce like it currently does rather than be primarily Seattle's wealthy eastern suburbs. Obviously having the 8th cross the cascades sucks, but there's no better way to do it given transportation patterns and how having the 3rd gain more of eastern Washington splits the Yakima area in half.

    Overall this map would've been a fairly solid 7-3 in 2012. Rick Larsen stays in the 2nd and holds it easily over John Koster, Darcy Burner maybe runs in the 1st along with a ton of other Dems, Suzan DelBene easily wins an open 8th district, while Dave Reichert loses to Adam Smith in the 9th. Derek Kilmer and Denny Heck trade districts while both are safe D. The 3rd is practically identical to the actual version, while the 4th and 5th are split horizontally rather than vertically.

  •  Special Elections are getting REALLY dangerous ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    I hope it's only this year, but right now, there's something like a 10 point GOP advantage built in. There have been a couple against-the-grain races, but otherwise it's bad enough I wonder if GOP is going to go whole hog on recalls to see if they can net some seats before November.

  •  MA-06: Tierney seems to be past the issues now (8+ / 0-)

    and the ethical cloud is now seemingly water under the bridge: http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:31:34 AM PDT

  •  WI Gov St.Norbert College: Walker 55-40 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    Has him with 59% approval.  Partisan breakdown:

    37 R  32 D  25 I

    http://www.snc.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:32:22 AM PDT

  •  House vote on Ryan budget will be close (10+ / 0-)

    At least 10 Republicans will vote no. GOP leaders can only afford 16 defections.

    All 3 House Reps from GA who are running for Senate will vote against the Ryan budget, from the right.  Interesting that they think they can burnish their conservative credentials by voting against Ryan's budget.

    Broun and Gingrey did vote no last year, while Kingston was a yes.

    link.

  •  VA-Sen: Warner raises $2.7 million in Q1 (13+ / 0-)

    has $8.8 million CoH: http://hamptonroads.com/...

    One state I'm curious for is IA-03, see how Appel did for fundraising after Latham announced retirement.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:51:40 AM PDT

    •  I can't wait to see (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, gabjoh, wwmiv

      the spin for whatever Gillespie raises. He could probably take in $0.00 in donations and people would take it up as him being above the fray and not willing to be bought by the voters.

      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

      by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:11:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He's also got a personal fortune of (0+ / 0-)

      something in the range from 300-400 million to draw on if he needs additional resources.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:55:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I didn't know Warner was worth 9 figures. (0+ / 0-)

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:28:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Warner got into celluar communications early (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, gabjoh, pademocrat

          He was one of the founders of Nextel.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:32:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I heard him talk about it on Wait Wait (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, madmojo

            Don't Tell Me (weekly NPR current events/humor show). He was talking about how he'd gone to Harvard Law, had several business failures, living out of his car, and then went around convincing his classmates (who actually had money) that this thing called "cellphones" was going to take off... link here. (Hopefully that works for you all outside of US America as well?)

            "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

            by gabjoh on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:43:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  CA-33: Kanuth raises $800K (4+ / 0-)

    Democratic candidate David Kanuth announced that he has raised over $800,000 for his CA-33 campaign in less than 2 months.

    30, pal of Foot Foot, VA-02 (resident), NJ-01 (my old ancestral home)

    by footfootfoot on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:05:05 AM PDT

    •  It's depressing (7+ / 0-)

      To see so much money that is going to be spent in a Safe D seat that could go to vulnerable incumbents or competitive races that are getting pummeled by the Koch ads. Sigh.

      18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

      by SCDem4 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:11:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Who? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, KingofSpades

      Really, who is this? I do my best to keep on top of California politics, but I've never heard of this dude before. Who is he?

      But I guess since he's raising all this $$$$, he's more than just "some dude". I just wondered if he'll eat more into Ted Lieu's or Wendy Greuel's vote share.

      •  Who is he? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        And I live like 5 miles away from the district. I have spent a ton of time following this race and I have never heard of this guy.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

        by Alibguy on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:53:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That was my first thought too. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:27:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Great race, several flavors of left candidates (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      benamery21

      Lieu had been a lock for top two, but he recently lost several endorsements over the old Asian vs black/Latino affirmative action divide, so its possible both final two spots could be up for grabs among six or even seven candidates.

      All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

      by tommypaine on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 02:04:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Top 2 out of what, 18? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betelgeux

        I'd say it's pretty much a certainty we end up with a representative well to the right of Waxman.

        Lieu (who I think has the state party endorsement) opposes restoring affirmative action in state college admissions, since Chinese-American students as a demographic do well (some would say disproportionately well) under the current admissions scheme.  Greuel is an elitist ex-Republican.  Kanuth opposes raising capital gains taxes and is in the tank for industry on DMCA issues (probably an electoral plus in this seat).  Matt Miller is synonymous with 3rd Way.

        Have any of the (at least 6) rescinded black/Latino state lawmaker endorsements of Lieu been followed by endorsement of opponents?

        http://www.scpr.org/...

        I foreshadowed this here with my lazy question as to whether Lieu had ANY Latino endorsements, shortly after he announced, and it was noted that he indeed had received several very prominent ones.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 03:31:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Lieu denounced (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        "As lifelong Democrats, we support the core democratic values of inclusion and diversity...At this point, we cannot in good conscience endorse a candidate who does not share that perspective"

        "The letter was signed by Lieu state Senate colleagues Ricardo Lara of Bell Gardens, Norma Torres of Pomona and Holly Mitchell of Los Angeles and by Assembly members Lorena Gonzalez of San Diego, Anthony Rendon of Lakewood and Jose Medina of Riverside."

        http://www.latimes.com/...
        "

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 03:43:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  IA Sen/Gov Suffolk (12+ / 0-)

    Braley up from 6 to 13, but a lot of undecided.

    Ernst leads Jacobs by 2 in the primary.

    Branstad up by 10, also a lot of undecided.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:10:37 AM PDT

  •  PA-Gov $ (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    Via PoliticsPA, which is going through each report, I didn't realize this regarding our numbers on Team Schwartz:

    Of the Democrats running for the gubernatorial nomination, she’s the only one who raised more than she spent in 2014, with a burn rate of 67%.
    Wolf analysis ("Wolf ended up bringing in a respectable $611,407... spent more than $5.3 million in the first three months of 2013. Nonetheless, Wolf still has a massive $7,057,546 cash left on hand.")

    McGinty analysis ("Bringing in $1,102,857.... ended with a cash on hand total of $1,618,361. Those totals come with a big caveat, however, as McGinty loaned her campaign $300,000 last month. Altogether, McGinty has given $535,000 in loans to her gubernatorial campaign.")

  •  FL-13: Jolly would beat Sink in rematch, 48-46. (5+ / 0-)

    In a poll commissioned for SaintPetersBlog, St. Pete Polls finds that, in a rematch between Congressman David Jolly and Alex Sink, Jolly would lead Sink, receiving 48% of the vote to her 46%.

    This is, it's important to note, basically the exact same margin of victory that Jolly won by on election day in March, so the environment hasn't really changed that much since then.

    Sink is still considering a rematch with Jolly, and hasn't come to a decision quite yet. She will be forced to come a decision soon, however, because the qualifying window for federal elections in Florida runs from April 28 to May 2. That being said, I hope that she makes up her mind soon--though I have the utmost respect for her, I would like someone like Jessica Ehrlich to run if Sink does not.

    20, FL-07. UCF student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher/politician. Wes Neuman for Congress! "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren

    by Tyler Yeargain on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 10:34:14 AM PDT

    •  That's an MOE result, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bythesea, ehstronghold

      and doesn't suggest (to me, anyway) that she wouldn't be our best candidate, especially at this late date.

      •  I don't disagree. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        I think that it would be ludicrous to suggest that she isn't our strongest possible candidate in this seat. We have--without much exaggeration--no real bench in Pinellas County. The 2012 elections following redistricting helped matters a little bit, but the current crop of Democrats need time to win re-election and build themselves up. Rick Kriseman, the recently-elected Mayor of St. Petersburg, could be a strong candidate for this seat in a few years, but in the meantime, I'm curious to see how his first term as Mayor goes. Only four people were realistically discussed as Democratic candidates last time around: Sink, Ehrlich, Charlie Justice, and Janet Long. Justice is a former State Senator and current Pinellas County Commissioner, and he got creamed by the late Congressman Bill Young in 2010. Long is a former state representative and current County Commissioner, but she's pushing into her seventies. Ehrlich has been discussed ad nauseam here before, but to add my own opinion, I feel as though she has the potential to be a really strong candidate, but she should really build up her name locally first by running for the state legislature. She'd be doing Pinellas Democrats a huge favor and she'd make the connections necessary for a congressional campaign. I think she has a bright future, but she needs to set her sights a little lower, just like Sandra Fluke did.

        So, long story short, I think that you're completely right. Sink has the profile, the fundraising chops, and the name recognition necessary to do well. She remains popular in the district, and she really only lost because of poor Democratic turnout.

        In the fall, we (hopefully) will face a much different environment. With Charlie Crist as the Democratic nominee for Governor, we should see some level of coattails for Democrats statewide, but especially in his home county, Pinellas, and a strong performance by him and better turnout should be enough to drag Sink across the finish line.

        20, FL-07. UCF student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher/politician. Wes Neuman for Congress! "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren

        by Tyler Yeargain on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:14:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Redistricting lawsuit is still pending... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      Like Ive said before, Jolly ain't going to be in Congress for that long. Crist is likely to be the next Governor of Florida, and will keep that court in Dems hand. He has lead in every poll with he exception of that POS poll from conservative SSN.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Show them how to move in a room full of vultures. -- Shawn Carter

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 04:38:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yo these special election results are terrifying (0+ / 0-)

    Jesus, another 20 point underperformance? This is kind of starting to add up, here.

    •  I dont think you can read much into it (9+ / 0-)

      I mean, we are talking special elections for the state house.

      Last week, Dems got a pickup in an MA state house race, that had a decent GOP candidate. It was a good win, but it didnt really mean anything, big picture wise.

      •  It's really an argument for building (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, sulthernao

        last party infrastructures. If our side didn't contest it because they didn't think the cost was worth it, fine, maybe that makes sense this time. But over the longer term, I think it'll be damaging.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:18:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It happens? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      These are off year, state house elections. The turnout dynamics not only favor Republicans in this particular seat where they are the dominant local party, but you can't judge results of elections where Democrats weren't mounting a serious challenge to begin with. Democrats narrowly picked up a 52-46 Obama state house seat (that was historically Republican in modern Florida, being entirely in Pasco county), that they did launch a full-throttle effort for.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:57:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  there are uncontested races (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      like NJ-Gov last year.

      Really there is nothing to read here.

  •  MI PPP 2016 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, LordMike, abgin, MetroGnome

    She leads her potential Republican opponents in the state by anywhere from 9 to 12 points: it's 46/37 over Chris Christie, 48/39 over Rand Paul, 49/38 over Jeb Bush, and 50/38 over Mike Huckabee.

    Republicans are split a lot of different ways when it comes to who they'd like as their nominee in 2016. 16% want Rand Paul, 15% each support Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, 11% are for Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush is at 9%, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker each get 5%, Marco Rubio's at 4%, and Bobby Jindal is last at 3%.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:01:32 AM PDT

  •  MA-Gov: Coakley "The Comeback Kid"? (9+ / 0-)

    Her campaign seems to be running smoothly and it looks like she's not taking this race for granted. As a plus, I've notice a lot of Red Sox stuff on my Twitter feed.

  •  PPP MI: Increasing the minimum wage (9+ / 0-)

    to $10 is supported by a 56/35 margin.

    A group trying to get the issue on the ballot in November needs 258,088 valid signatures by the end of May. They are trying to get 350k signatures to be safe. link.

    •  Great stuff. If only Dems were putting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      it on the ballot in other key states like Florida and Ohio, almost like a party that knew what it was doing. The GOP did this with ease with anti-equality measures. Both states are of course above the federal minimum but well below the $10/hr that can win popular approval.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:47:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Legalized marijuana at just 45/48 opposed (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, bythesea, gabjoh

      I really think they need to put it on the 2016 ballot in Michigan and Ohio along with the other states like California, Nevada, Maine, and Massachusetts. Even if it narrowly fails, which isn't guaranteed given the pace of changing opinions, it will help with youth turnout.

      •  45/48 is softer than I would expect (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PassionateJus, gabjoh, Avedee, madmojo

        since it's polling ahead nationally now, with the expected underperformances in the South (compared to Obama's numbers), so you'd think it would overperform elsewhere.

        Still, I have no doubt that by 2016 almost every state Obama won in 2012 will have a majority in favor of legal marijuana, with possible exception of Florida and Ohio.

        From what the Marijuana Policy Project has said, they intend to make use of presidential turnout, more youth voters, and an additional two years of changing minds to win a bunch of victories in 2016.  That said, initiatives are still going ahead in Alaska and Oregon this year at least, and should probably pass in both.

        •  There have been a few Iowa polls (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje

          and maybe one from Minnesota showing support softer than what you would expect just based on PVI given national support. Of course if it overperforms Obama in the West and underperforms him the in heavily evangelical South and there's clear cross-party support or opposition in all polls, it's not surprising when some of that shows up regionally elsewhere.

          I do feel like too few polls ask about that, particularly in states such as Michigan with the ballot initiative where it should be flagrantly obvious that it will be that method that legalizes it.

        •  Question (0+ / 0-)

          It seems it depends on how you phrase the question.  A lot of pollster usually give three choices: status quo, decrminalization and legalization.  I see pollsters are starting to go straight to status quo and legalization, which totally changes the outcome.

          I think it may be slightly softer than I expeceted, but so was the minimum wage increase support, which I'd seen in another recent poll closer to 60%.  It may have something to do with the sample, which is seems very slightly more conservative than you'd expect of the state.  But, the numbers are believable.

          •  Offering decriminalization as a third option (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            is going to give you worthless results just like giving civil unions as an option in 2014 gives you worthless results. Nobody is going to put decriminalization on the ballot except in maybe Arkansas, Missouri, or Oklahoma which clearly are opposed to legalization but have the ballot measure and one assumes would favor medical marijuana overwhelmingly (Mississippi has some form of decriminalization). Even North Carolina has it decriminalized so that like less than half an ounce is somewhat of a slap on the wrist (especially if you're not poor or a minority...).

            Pollsters like Quinnipiac like to waste a Q by asking "do you think legalization has been good for Colorado's image?". Who gives a shit about its image, why not ask if it's been good for the state overall? Regardless though there's no reason not to ask between the status quo, or "illegal," versus legal for recreation use as that's become the obvious policy divide and is going to be on the ballot from here on out.

            I think those numbers in Michigan are definitely believable. There's been other polling showing support for legalization by race lagging partisanship for minorities just like same sex marriage does and if it weren't for (over 90% minority) Detroit the state would be a tossup at the federal level. That's not at all surprising when all polls show lower partisan polarization on this issue as even though Dems are over 60% in support that's still a large chunk who aren't.

            •  Confused (0+ / 0-)
              I think those numbers in Michigan are definitely believable. There's been other polling showing support for legalization by race lagging partisanship for minorities
              Can you reword this?  For whatever reason, I'm having the hardest time figuring this out.  Are you saying legalization is more or less popular among ethnic minorities?
              •  I'm saying that the polls have shown (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh

                legalization running further behind support for Obama among ethnic minorities such as Hispanics, or racial minorities like blacks compared to how far behind (if any) it runs among whites. The polls could be wrong of course, but that's what they've shown since those demographics vote overwhelmingly Democratic, but those same polls show the legalization gap larger than it is for whites because there are a lot of white Republicans who support legalization.

                That's not to say ethnic/racial minorities favor legalization less than whites, which is pretty clearly not the case. But if you look at the precinct/county results for Washington or Colorado it's pretty clear that legalization of marijuana outran Obama far more in heavily white Republican areas and ran significantly behind in heavily minority Democratic ones, even more so than same sex marriage. For instance legalization passed in uber-Republican and heavily white El Paso County (Colorado Springs) while Romney beat Obama by 20%, but it ran behind Obama in Denver which has a sizable Hispanic and (for Colorado) even a black population.

                If I had the Washington state precinct file, where both measures were on the ballot, I'd love to do some statistical analysis of that, but I only have said data by legislative district.

            •  Partisan polarization (0+ / 0-)

              According to this poll, there is quite a difference between Democrats and Republicans on this issue.  Democrats (56/35) and Independents (52/42) both support legalizing it while Republicans oppose it by 70%.

  •  KY Sen PPP: Grimes 45 McConnell 44 (8+ / 0-)

    ‏@ppppolls
    Our new KY poll finds Alison Lundergan Grimes leading Mitch McConnell 45/44. Race has been within 2 pts for a year.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:36:06 AM PDT

  •  Texas wins PPP! (6+ / 0-)

    Ya'll other states need to build e-mail lists and Facebook pages with several thousand activists on them. Winning the internet is getting easy. :-D

    SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:39:16 AM PDT

    •  Don't know why you're excited (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo, sulthernao

      I wouldn't be excited about PPP polling California given we already know all the results.  Rather have a state we see less frequently/a state that is competitive.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:55:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe just in case (0+ / 0-)

        Wendy Davis is running better than most think?

        A better than expected poll showing by her might not be such a good thing from the perspective of where to put our resources.  If it looks semi-competitive but she's not leading or at least essentially tied, then Texas could end up taking away too many resources from more winnable races.

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:04:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Cause (5+ / 0-)

        It's Texas and we like to win. Doesn't matter what, just so long as we win.

        If some other state wanted to be polled, they should have their activists lines up to poll; we did. Also, I need stuff to write about for BOR. And we had that poll last month saying down 7.

        But mostly, we just like winning. It's why I'm in campaigns. Not for any issue, just to win. ;-)

        SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

        by trowaman on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:08:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for wasting a week, I guess. (0+ / 0-)

      Race isn't goona be competative.

    •  Oh great... (7+ / 0-)

      Because Texas has soooo many competitive races.  I'm on pins ans needles awaiting the results to see whether Davis is down by 12 or 20 points.

    •  Oh, and... (0+ / 0-)

      you're not going to be well liked around here by basically rigging the PPP polls each week like that.

      •  It's not exactly rigging. (9+ / 0-)

        I think you're getting a little too bent out of shape over this.

        •  But, doesn't PPP tend to reject such results (0+ / 0-)

          if they become aware of "rigging" like this?

        •  I didn't say it was exactly rigging. (0+ / 0-)

          I said it's basically rigging.  Very different.  But I'll be glad to leave.  This guy's smugness gets on my nerves.

          •  okay ... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MetroGnome

            SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

            by trowaman on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:34:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sorry for that. (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bythesea, Skaje, WisJohn, sulthernao, trowaman

              Sorry. it's the competitiveness.  I don't want to be misunderstood here.  I've just never appreciated competitiveness in my personal life, especially when I feel my nose is being pushed in it, which I took the "haha I won, you lose" sort of statement as.  I just see it as rude and it's one of the reasons I avoid people now.  It's like the one thing that makes me really angry...  besides Republicans.  (In fact, it's probably one of the reasons I don't like them.)

              I need to work on this, but psych visits are months apart.  Been working on it for a few years now.  Since my nervous breakdown once when I was yelled at at work at any rate.  So, sorry.  

              Some of us do not do organizing or campaigning, and therefore do not have a list of contacts to spread the polls around to.  I know no one in real life who is into politics and is liberal.  I come from a very conservative area/background, and as stated before, have social anxiety disorder, so I don't make friends in public easily either.

      •  That guy in Ohio rigged (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nonsensoleum, MetroGnome

        Texas activists are a tight-knit community in online activists. 2 weeks ago is the only time I can think of in the last 6 years that Texas did not win when it was offered as a choice.

        It's not rigging, it's organizing and campaigning, what we all say we are experts in. And PPP probably likes it because they gain exposure and ad revenue from people coming over.

        Be a better organizer. Earn your win next time.

        SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

        by trowaman on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:25:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not an organizer or activist. (0+ / 0-)

          That's not what I'm here for.  That's what people on the main page do.  I'm interested in number crunching and discussing political history, etc.  I'm not interested in helping run campaigns.  I have severe social anxiety disorder and don't work for campaigns since I got the disorder.  I don't talk on phones, either.  

          So please do not assume we all are pro-actively working as organizers or for campaigns.  I live in a very Republican area of my state where a lot of people would rather see a Democrat hanged than elected, so I keep my mouth shut.  I give money, and that's all I do.  

          So enough of this "earn your win" stuff.  Telling me to earn my win is rude.  

        •  I'm sorry (0+ / 0-)

          but if Texas Democrats were actually good why are we incapable of winning elections and turning out voters?

          #burn

          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:17:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  tbh, I thought the same thing. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv
          •  No money (0+ / 0-)

            No one thinks Texas is competitive (see above), so no one invests the rather large sums of money that would be required to make it competitive.

            Our path to victory lies in Austin, Dallas, Houston, El Paso, and the Rio Grande Valley region. Are there enough Democrats to win in Texas? Sure. This isn't Wyoming. It's just that registering all those voters takes a ton of people willing to canvass, and the organizational apparatus necessary to manage all those canvassers requires beaucoup bucks that most people feel would be best spent on softer, but less fruitful targets.

            Can't say I blame them. Going for Texas is a hail mary pass. You expend a bunch of resources in Texas at the expense of other locations, but if you succeed in turning Texas blue, the Republican Party becomes a regional and statewide party for so long as the current coalition lines hold. From a cost-benefit perspective, it's high risk, high reward. In politics, the conventional wisdom is to play it safe.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

            by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:43:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  It's not rigging (6+ / 0-)

        to organize activists who want both political attention to the campaigns they are investing time and money into, and also want more up to date indications of how the races are going. Trow is being exceptionally gracious with these rude, dismissive, and asinine comments, much more than I am or will be and I am not even involved in Texas politics. This sort of snarky pessimism (highlighted by above comments that freely toss numbers around, which are not even very accurate), irritate me to no end. Especially when organization and voter turnout in Texas are very important to flipping some districts by the end of this decade, as well as getting new Democrats involved with politics, registering young and minority voters, bringing the state's party apparatus into the 20th century, etc, all things that these kinds of hard-fighting campaigns are needed to supplement, even if they are serious underdogs.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:27:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  In the whole scheme of things (5+ / 0-)

        it doesn't really matter.  Illinois and Connecticut and Wisconsin and the rest will get polled a ton throughout the summer and into the election season.  Me and some others pushed for New Mexico for the longest time because nobody had polled it in a year and a half.  But it's not like Texas getting polled one week means the other states won't get polled for months or anything.

    •  Yay, I guess? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      I would be more  excited if Texas was more flexible than it was.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:42:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The LG race would be interesting as well. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        We could get as close as John Sharp did in 1998 for that slot.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:48:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  zzz (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      Hopefully this is the last time they will include Texas as an option. I think Texas Dems have the longest statewide losing streak of any party in the nation, and there is no reason to expect that to change this year.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:16:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sooo....a conversation of mine (0+ / 0-)

    went, in the space of one sentence, from the theodicy of Leibnez, to "Don't disparage my asparagus!" -Louie Gohmert.

    Europeans don't know how to handle American politics...

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:42:04 AM PDT

  •  OH-Gov: Wow! (17+ / 0-)

    Ed Fiitzgerald fought the state's attempt to restrict voting and it looks like he won!!  The GOP has backed down from the funding threat against the county for mailing out unsolicited absentee ballot applications.  The county, yesterday approved funding for the ballots:

    http://www.cleveland.com/...

    A peculiar round of political gamesmanship ended Tuesday with Ed FitzGerald, the Democratic candidate for governor, getting pretty much everything he wanted.

    Soon after the Cuyahoga County executive called for the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate it, Gov. John Kasich distanced himself from an Ohio House Republican effort aimed at discouraging FitzGerald from challenging new early voting rules.

    Kasich’s public rebuke, along with one from Secretary of State Jon Husted, a fellow Republican, left the House GOP little choice but to pull its measure. Meanwhile, the Cuyahoga County Council, on party lines, approved FitzGerald’s plan to defy state law and allow the county to mail absentee ballot applications if the secretary of state does not.

    When it was all over, FitzGerald, who has struggled to make a name for himself statewide, was making headlines across Ohio and discussing the ordeal on MSNBC.

    This guy is one of the good ones.  He deserves more support than what he's getting!  BTW, enjoy the comments in the article.  The tears by the conservatives on there are delicious!!! ;-)

    "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

    by LordMike on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 11:57:25 AM PDT

  •  NE-2: Terry up 40-26 over GOP primary challenger (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, sapelcovits

    According to the challenger's (Dan Frei) released internal poll .  The usual interpretation battles apply; Frei's "Terry's way under 50!" and Terry's "Frei is down double digits!"

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:22:15 PM PDT

  •  Good news everyone! in Iowa senate polling: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, trowaman, DCCyclone


    A new Suffolk University poll in Iowa finds Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) leads all five potential Republican opponents by between 6 and 13 points.

     In the GOP primary, Joni Ernst (R), who has been tagged the "castration candidate" due to her TV ad, is leading Mark Jacobs (R), 25% to 23%.

  •  States with minimum wage on the ballot in 2014 (10+ / 0-)

    I sorted through the states with minimum wage increases on the ballot in 2014 and here's the list.  Some would go into effective immediately, some gradually over a few years.  The initiaatives in AK, AR, MI and NM seem the most important as those states have very competitive Governor's and Senate races this year.  I'm also curious to see how these initiatives fare in very red states like ID, NE and SD.  

    I wish my own state of Florida would have grown more ambitious and gotten a wage hike on the ballot.  Voters here did pass a minimum wage amendment in 2004 that tied minimum wage to cost of living, leaving us at $7.93 right now.  That amendment passed overwhelmingly.  I think we could have passed an amendment over the 60% threshold to raise it to $9 or $10 an hour if it were on the ballot this year.

    Alaska (would eraise minimum to $9.75) - Senator Begich is facing a hard fought Senate race.

    Arkansas (would raise minimum to $8.50) - Senator Mark Pryor is facing a very difficult re-election.  Though he foolishly came out against the President's call for a $10.10 minimum wage.

    Idaho (would raise minimum to $9.50) - Likely won't help Dems get elected to anything, but this should be an amendment to watch considering how red the state is.

    Massachusetts (would raise to $10.50)

    Michigan (would raise minimum to $10.10) - Lots of critical races this year.

    Minnesota (would raise minimum to $10.00)

    Missouri (would raise minimum to $9.25)

    Nebraska (would raise minimum to $9.00)

    New Mexico (would rasise minimum to $8.50) - Competitive Governor's race.

    South Dakota (would raise minimum to $8.50)

    D.C. (would raise minimum to $12.50)

  •  WV-03: Rahall outraises Jenkins by >50% (8+ / 0-)

    325K to 200K.  He also has a little over double Jenkins' CoH: http://atr.rollcall.com/...=

    I think he's probably in the same boat as Matheson was in 2012.  At least he's campaigning earlier than he did in 2012 and is attacking super PACs against him as "millionaires from NYC" out to take away black lung patient coverage.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:39:18 PM PDT

  •  PA GOV: Wolf out with another ad on Equal Pay (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Good timing because this coincides with the Equal Pay vote in the Senate today. I think out of all the candidates Wolf's ads seem to be the best. Their positive and appeals to not just Dems but Indies too you wouldn't know he's even running in the Dem primary they can work in a GE too.

    •  How is Wolf doing at organic campaigning (0+ / 0-)

      outside of the ad stuff?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:46:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CO-Gov: Tancredo makes the ballot: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike

    http://coloradopols.com/...

    And I'm increasingly not worried about Beauprez: http://coloradopols.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:51:55 PM PDT

  •  CO-06: Romanoff raises $600K in Q1 (6+ / 0-)

    has $2.1 million CoH: http://coloradopols.com/...

    Why didn't he run for us in 2012?  He would certainly have won that one.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:53:23 PM PDT

    •  Miklosi was already in (5+ / 0-)

      and had been waging a hopeless bid for awhile until redistricting dumped Coffman into a vulnerable seat.  Maybe Romanoff felt it was too late, or too close to his 2010 loss to Sen. Bennet.  Maybe he (like many other Dems) didn't want to run in a contested primary.

      In any case, he's outraising Senate candidates now.  Romanoff is a beast.

      •  Which is amazing to me considering (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        his senate fundraising sucked (understandably as he was challenging an incumbent). This race is going to be insanely expensive... over $10 million from the two candidates would not surprise me at all and with outside groups it could easily be well into the teens.

        For shits and giggles, Romanoff has destroyed Paul Broun in fundraising every quarter!

        •  Law of diminishing return comes into play (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          There are only so many spots available on Denver broadcast TV, and with a Senate race, governor's race, keen interest from the Koch empire and liberal groups, AND several prominent ballot initiatives (including personhood and fracking), it's going to get ugly. I'm not really sure the Coffman-Romanoff race COULD go that high even if the money were available.

          •  Paid door-to-door voter registration (0+ / 0-)

            and GOTV would absorb quite a bit.  500 paid campaign workers at $2000/mo for 7 months would be $7mil.

            Although that's a gross exaggeration of what they might do, I truly think that's where we need to go as the amount of money in politics goes up faster than ad prices.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 05:11:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  If only. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              PassionateJus, gabjoh

              Even senate campaigns don't spend anywhere near that on field, let alone door-to-door voter registration. Paid media sucks up most of it - income inequality exists in political campaigns too!

              Impractical progressive Democrat.

              by redrelic17 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 05:23:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  With that approach, it should not be a surprise (0+ / 0-)

                when turnout is low once again.

                •  The approach doesn't matter in turnout (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  PassionateJus

                  The best field moves turnout only on small margins.

                  OFA field didn't move gobs of people to the polls who wouldn't have voted anyway.  They moved just some.

                  Only in the closest races does field matter.  It made the difference in Obama winning Florida in 2012 and in winning North Carolina and Indiana in 2008.  And you have to do it everywhere anyway because you never know for sure in advance what state(s) will be on a razor's edge on election night.  But if you end up winning by 4-6 points as Obama did in most battlegrounds, then you would've won those states with a more pedestrian effort (but just more narrowly).

                  In Colorado, a $7 million canvassing effort would be wasted.  It wouldn't gin up turnout much.  The only way you could really do anything significant would be if you could miraculously find people in every neighborhood to repeatedly work on persuadables near their own homes.  But available labor isn't uniformly distributed like that.

                  46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:42:36 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  2000/mo is a field organizer's salary (0+ / 0-)

              And five months out, with even a hugely well-funded senate campaign, you'd have about two or three of those per congressional district. Imagining 500 of them... well, certainly no potential volunteer would go uncalled - at that point you might as well just pay canvassers.

              "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

              by gabjoh on Thu Apr 10, 2014 at 06:00:04 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Miloski did pretty decently (0+ / 0-)

        He just didn't get party backing until it was very late in the cycle.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 05:52:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Does anybody know if Domina's (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal

    Favorability and name rec from the Ras poll have been made public anywhere?

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:56:24 PM PDT

    •  Who is Domina? (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:57:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ohhhhh, it's the Dem running for NE. (0+ / 0-)

        My bad.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:04:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ouch (5+ / 0-)

        David Domina.  Our presumptive nominee for the open seat NE-Sen race, who is polling at just 27% per Rasmussen against the various wingnut GOP schmucks running at about 50%.  

        Background: The lawyer who won the eminent domain case by ranchers against Keystone XL in NE a few weeks ago.  Also, the winner of a $1B+ class action award (later overturned on appeal) against meatpackers for beef operators.  Also, the winner of two impeachment prosecution cases against state officials, and 9 murder defense trials.  He's a bit of an odd duck but I think he'd make a great Senator if the GOP nominee were to meltdown.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:07:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  2016 Pres: rare smart right-wing blog post (4+ / 0-)

    This by Allahpundit, who is usually a crazy hack, is as smart a summary as I've seen of how I, too, think 2016 will go on the GOP side and then in November if both Jeb and Hillary run for President:  http://hotair.com/...

    But I don't know that Jeb will run, he seems ambivalent.

    Hillary seems to be leaning toward a run, but not 100% sure yet.

    But Allahpundit is right IMO on how it woudl all play out if they both run.

    And yes, Walker would be Jeb's biggest obstacle, but ultimately I think Jeb would get it because he's just a bigger kid on the block.  And Walker couldn't make a plausible argument that he's clearly more electable in November...his polling likely won't look any better than Jeb's.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:12:13 PM PDT

  •  NJ: Judge rules that Kelly, Stepien dont have (0+ / 0-)

    to comply with the legislative subpoenas.

    Not sure this is good news for Christie. Just continues the speculation of what happened and what his former political aides have to hide.

    I dont know what impact this has on the investigation by the US Attorney.

    link.

    •  It's separate from the US Attorney case. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TrueBlueDem, bythesea

      And, after she was backstabbed by Christie, Kelly said she will gladly fully cooperate with the US Attorney once she's promised legal protections.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:24:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  what the hell (9+ / 0-)

    So Republicans successfully filibustered the fair pay for women vote in the Senate.  Every no vote was from the unanimous GOP caucus, but one...

    Angus King

    Not Manchin.  Not Pryor.  Angus King.

    He said it would hurt businesses.  Wow.

  •  Politically, the high school stabbing... (0+ / 0-)

    How long until the crazy Republicans start saying "See?  Not allowing guns doesn't stop these!"?  Disregarding the fact that, thankfully, no one was killed by the knives.

    Which Republican congressman do you think will stupidly raise such a point first?  And do you think it'll help or hurt them politically?  We've already seen them use the Fort Hood shooting to push for an end to Gun-Free Zones.

    Sorry if this is too policy.  I'm actually very interested in which congressman will use it for political gain first.  Because I know someone will.  Facebook is already full of people using it for political purposes.

  •  WI-Gov: Walker headed back to college (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32

    Fun Fact: Back to School was filmed and set at University of Wisconsin-Madison

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 01:46:03 PM PDT

    •  Helpful move (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, DCCyclone, gabjoh

      Appealing story of being a guy who went back to school to finish his degree.  No way this could hurt and probably helps.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 02:37:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The biggest threat is pulling a Perdue (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, LordMike, gabjoh

        And getting snotty about him dropping out. I've never heard an elite Dem make that mistake, but it happens all the time at the grassroots level, especially in Madison. The liberal elitist stereotype has more than a little truth to it.

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 05:41:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  RTWFL won't be on the ballot in Missouri. (11+ / 0-)

    My diary on Missouri's RTWFL vote.

    Today, there is great news for Missourians and union members alike (and not-so-good news for folks like Dana Loesch, Peter Kinder, Rex Sinquefield, Grover Norquist, ALEC, and the Koch Brothers): The right to work for less bill HB1770 has been quashed, as although the bill passed the House on majority vote 78-68-2 but fell short of the 82 votes threshold, thus rendering the bill dead.
  •  OK-SEN-B (6+ / 0-)

    State Senator Constance Johnson from Oklahoma City filed to run for the United States Senate today. Some of you may know her from when she appeared on The Daily Show/Colbert Report? discussing her bill that would make 'every sperm sacred'.

  •  CO-SEN: Gardner Raises $1.4M in Q1 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    With $2.1M CoH, which is a pretty good haul for them.

    Udall raised $2M this quarter, and has $5.9M CoH

  •  Thought: When does a pol build a "brand"? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, DCCyclone

    Here's something I've been thinking about for a little while; when does a politician gain an established brand or type? For example, Ron Paul. He was a relatively obscure Congressman for a while, yet you can identify a "Paulite" by their nickname. Or in a few other politicians, you can say "this candidate is in the tradition of Politician X". Yet you don't have John Dingellites, for example, so it's not sheer longevity. So what makes a political "brand"?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 06:18:44 PM PDT

    •  I think it can be a couple different things (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      First, it can be strong identification with a specific ideological or policy posture, like Ron Paul.

      Second, it can simply be a strong personal brand built on great personal popularity.  This would be people like Mark Warner in Virginia, Evan Bayh and Richard Lugar in Indiana, and it goes on and on.

      The second kind is more common, since it's more desired and sought after.

      As far as "when" a brand is established, a strong personal brand comes from popular service for a couple terms in statewide office, or for much longer in a lower-level office.  Of course the lower the level, the smaller the geographic area and electorate who recognize the brand.  There are localities with wildly personally popular state legislators or Mayors who are unknown statewide.

      A strong ideological or policy brand probably takes longer to establish.  But it doesn't always require being in elected office for long......Elizabeth Warren established a personal reputation as a Wall Street watchdog and consumer advocate before she beat Scott Brown, and that helped her more quickly establish her personal brand after she beat Brown.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 08:35:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI Gov: Local media digging into Furniture-gate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, DownstateDemocrat

    It seems that Snyder's familial connection to a company that supplies furniture for the state is now getting deeper scrutiny:

    Gov. Rick Snyder is drawing criticism his office says is unwarranted for a contract that will renovate the Michigan Economic Development Corp.’s downtown Lansing headquarters.

    In January, the MEDC, a quasi-government agency that receives state funding for economic development purposes, awarded a $731,119 contract to Holland-based Haworth Inc.

    DBI Office Interiors, owned by George Snyder, Rick Snyder’s cousin, is a Lansing-based dealer for Haworth and will perform much of the work.

    This particular piece of news seems like a nothingburger, but it's keeping the issue in the news.  And, Rick Snyder has yet explain why the other contract with the state was doubled and how it's not connected to George Snyder's plea for help in keeping the contract from expiring.  It's looking like this may become a thing as it gives off whisps of nepotism.
  •  LA-05: I'm sure this has been asked already (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, ChadmanFL

    about how can Republicans ask McAllister to resign, while not demanding the same of David Vitter?

  •  IL-Sen: Oberweis supports raising (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, gabjoh

    the minimum wage to $10/hr over three years (still more conservative than IL Democrats' plan of $10.65/hr over 2 years). But pretty shocking reversal nonetheless. I guess Oberweis wants to lose by 20% instead of 30%.

    Link.

    •  wow (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, gabjoh, sulthernao

      does this mean the minimum wage increase has a chance of passing the legislature this year? I know Mike Madigan said he supported it a few weeks ago.

      I like how it notes he is opposed to Obama's plan to raise it to 10.10.

      Because raising it to $10 is okay. But raising it by 10 more cents would be, um, communism or something?  

  •  More on Apopka, FL's 61 year Mayor losing (9+ / 0-)

    Just a quick follow-up on Apopka's Mayor of 61 years John Land (R) losing re-election the other day.  On local NPR they interviewed the man who upset him Joe Kilsheimer (D).  There are a couple advantages the challenger had, namely the city of Apopka has gone from very white and conservative 10-15 years ago to being minority-majority today.  But listening to Kilsheimer's interview I was extremely impressed.  He was badly out raised and outspent, but ran a campaign somewhat similar to Obama's vs. Romney.  

    Kilsheimer used the internet/social media heavily in his campaign, targeted door to door meetings with voters and an outstanding GOTV operation on election day.  Meanwhile the long-term incumbent Land apparently used the same old lazy mailers and flimsy ads that he'd been using most of his life in office.

    Joe Kilsheimer also came off as VERY polished.  He made transportation and infrastructure the centerpiece of his campaign.  Land is old-fashioned (at 93 years old) and had been resistant to infrastructure improvement and population growth that has been spilling out of Orlando and into Apopka.   Kilsheimer embraces growth, both population-wise and bringing in new businesses to Apopka.  He also emphasized the importance of greater connectivity with Orlando in fully supporting Sun Rail (high speed rail) which is already under construction in central Florida.  More or less it seems the voters no longer see Apopka as a "sleepy little town" but rather more of a modernized Orlando suburb.  It wouldn't surprise me if Kilsheimer ends up running for higher office one say.

  •  PPP: More Michigan Miscellany (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    - Support for same-sex marriage seems about as low as I've seen any any poll that has done the question in the last year or so at a narrow 49/44 split in support.  But, it was actually a more specific question which may explain the difference.  The question was whether Michigan should recognize the same-sex marriages performed last month in that short window when they were legal.  I guess I can see some people opposing how it was done, but the number still seems far too close relative to the general question asked in other polls.

    - Healthy Michigan, the state's Medicaid expansion brand, is popular with 50% support versus 19% opposed.

    - Our senators both seem to be fairly popular.  Carl Levin has a 47/34 approval rating and Debbie Stabenow sports a 48/36 approval rating.

    - On the less serious question thrown in for some levity, 74% of Michiganders identify themselves as Tigers fan with Cubs coming in a distant second 5%.  Apparently, even for states with only one MLB team, this is an unusually high level of support, which probably speaks to the state's relative geographic isolation being surrounded on so many sides by lakes.

  •  WI-SD-19/MN-8 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Get a load of this:

    (Wisconsin) State Senate President Mike Ellis is probably regretting having a few drinks with a pal recently at Inn on the Park—the friend had a hidden camera that was recording every boast Ellis made.

    “I don’t need to kiss anybody’s ass,” Ellis says on the tape.

    On the video, made by James O’Keefe and Project Veritas, Ellis brags about forming a Super PAC to go after his Democratic opponent, Penny Bernard Shaber. He wants Judi Rhodes—fundraiser for prominent Republicans like Scott Fitzgerald—to work for the PAC, which Ellis calls “The Friends of Free Life.”

    “She will manufacture the crap,” Ellis says. “She’s good at what she does, I told her Judi if I raise $500,000 then you attack her.”

    And he wants some high-rollers—apparently Mills Fleet Farms’ Stewart and Henry Mills, Bob Keller, Jim Keller, "Mrs. Ailworth"—to bankroll it with $50,000 each.

    In case you're wondering, Mike Ellis is the Republican President of the Wisconsin State Senate (representing WI-SD-19), and Stewart Mills is running for Congress in MN-8 as a Republican against Democratic incumbent Rick Nolan.

    Anyways, who ordered James O'Keefe, one of the most notorious conservative hit job masters, to go after a Republican Wisconsin State Senator? I don't think O'Keefe would do a hit job on a fellow Republican unless one of his buddies gave him the green light to do so.

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