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I have a prediction.  I predict that people will stop voting against their own best interests.

We know that the Affordable Care Act is working.  There are those 7 million signups (nearly 8 million now), plus the under-26’ers, plus the Medicaid expansion, plus the off-exchange signups, bringing the total closer to 15 million, maybe higher.  (OK, a lot of those are people who lost their original policies, so subtract a few)  But the point is that there are many millions of Americans who have health insurance for the first time in years, maybe ever.  There are poor people on Medicaid who have never had insurance or decent medical care before.  There are chronically ill or high risk (or female) people who cannot be cancelled or charged exorbitant rates ever again.  There are all the heart-warming stories about folks with insurance who are now fighting and winning, whose lives have been saved by ACA.  And despite Republican efforts, the word is spreading.  People who used to hate Obamacare now love the ACA.

We can, we have to, make this work for Dems in the next election.

Polling across America shows increasing support for the ACA.  Polling is moving from disastrously unfavorable a few months ago to pretty much neutral now, and will very soon be polling favorably, almost certainly with no turning back.  And many of the anti-ACA respondents want something more effective (like single payer or a public option), but certainly don’t oppose universal health care.  The people get it, even if the politicians don’t.

Millions of American women now have free contraceptive coverage.  If Hobby Lobby loses their suit, many more women will be empowered.  If Hobby Lobby wins - and stories about women denied contraception start to circulate - the outrage will be palpable.  The Hobby Lobby position is unsupportable, and we need to spread the word.  The ACA – universal health care – is a good thing.  We will never go back.

Now consider those red states where Medicaid expansion was not picked up.  That was so inexplicable, such a brainless maneuver, that the original framers didn’t even consider it.  The SCOTUS decision permitting states to decline the expansion left people in many red states at an extreme disadvantage when a simple yes from their governor or legislature would have added millions more people to the covered group and millions more dollars to the states' economies.  The petty hubris of Republican politicians has left millions of people at risk.  Thousands will die without adequate medical care.

To compound the problem, hospitals in those red states, especially in the poorest districts, will be cutting services or closing because the ACA-mandated elimination of subsidies will not be replaced by the anticipated Medicaid payments.  Mortality rates will surely rise, or at least remain documentably higher than in those states that implement the Medicaid expansion, and those statistics will become stories.  Folks with terminal diseases and no insurance will have relatives in other states who have access to care and the differences will become glaringly apparent.  Already Mitch McConnell and Ted Cruz have been smacked down by responses to their Facebook polls – they can’t live in a vacuum any longer.

So the good news, if you can call it that, is that the callous duplicity of the Republicans should not and will not go unnoticed.  Already, MoveOn.org has put up posters in a dozen red states informing their citizens that their politicians have failed them, and exhorting them to kick the bastards out.  Bobby Jindal in Louisiana had the stunning audacity to sue MoveOn, thereby ensuring that the issue will remain on the front pages for many months, maybe right up to the election.  

So here is my prediction:  one by one, the Republicans will cave or lose.  They will either vote to accept the expansion, like New Hampshire, Arizona, and Michigan, or they will be voted out and their successors will implement the change.  As each red state steps up, pressure will mount on the holdouts.  The ACA – universal healthcare – is too big to stop, and there is no going back.  Anyone standing in the way will get steamrolled.  

Could Obamacare be the wedge that brings the rural South and West back to the Democratic party?  (I can’t believe I actually said that!!).  Well maybe not Mississippi or South Carolina or Utah.  But certainly Florida and Texas, North Carolina and Virginia.  Colorado and Nevada. How about Kentucky and Tennessee and Idaho?  Arkansas?  Louisiana?  Let’s think big here.  

But the Democrats HAVE TO STEP UP and SHOUT ABOUT THIS.  The Republican position is unsupportable.  Already Mark Begich in AK is getting favorable ads up about his support of universal health care.  Paul Davis in KS has come out of left field to challenge Sam Brownback, who is dropping like a rock.  Alison Lundergan Grimes is posing a serious and unexpected threat to McConnell in KY.  Wendy Davis is taking a stand and growing stronger in TX.  Other Dems need to follow suit and get the word out.  We need to punish every politician who voted to repeal, every governor or legislator who voted against expansion.  There is blood on their hands.  This is a win-win strategy.

And then we all have to vote in November, that’s key.  But if we don’t get it done in November, if the insanity goes on another two years, if people suffer or die needlessly and their stories get told effectively, then I predict a groundswell in 2016.  We can, we will, win this one.

Originally posted to liberaldad2 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 11:33 PM PDT.

Also republished by Obamacare Saves Lives.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    'Tis with our judgments as our watches, none go just alike, yet each believes his own. - Alexander Pope

    by liberaldad2 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 11:33:49 PM PDT

  •  Well, there are only two problems. :) (0+ / 0-)

    1) People who lust for power are not going to be impressed because the good and doing good is not evidence of power. That's what the promise to "fight" is about. But, fight is about force and to force is to coerce and the champions of liberty don't coerce. So, the promise to fight is hollow.

    2) If everything's relative, then whenever someone else gets more, he who gets nothing has less. So, it is in the interest of the impoverished to keep others from getting something to make them better off, 'cause that keeps the poor from getting worse. Misery not only loves company, but the miserable get some satisfaction from imposing hurt (Schadenfreude is not just from injury that's deserved).

    Also, people love their abusers.

    http://hannah.smith-family.com

    by hannah on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 12:11:35 AM PDT

    •  It is fortunate that neither of your premises (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JamieG from Md, unfangus, hbk, liberaldad2

      is the case. We can vote the rascals out, and economics is not a zero-sum game. When you play it correctly, the pie gets bigger, in large part because everybody gets a share. It is only Republican Market Fundamentalists who pretend that it is, and must be played as, Beggar Thy Neighbor.

      It is not in the economic interest of the impoverished to keep other people poor. It is felt to be a social imperative among many of those not quite at the bottom to keep somebody else below them, as Thorstein Veblen explained in considerable detail in The Theory of the Leisure Class.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 07:32:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  True, economics involving trade and exchange (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        liberaldad2

        is not zero sum. Indeed, if the alternative persists and there is no trade and exchange, much enterprise and produce will go to waste. Which suggests that what we call profit is actually an avoidance of waste and avoiding waste involves saving resources and assets for future use. Indeed, letting someone else use them now makes it possible to recoup the benefit that is not wasted later. But, that kind of thinking involves the concept of time, recycling, recurrence and taking turns, none of which seem to be present in the formulators of conventional economic theory -- theorists, btw, who feel compelled to recommend changes in behavior whenever the outcome doesn't mesh with their predictions.

        I disagree with Veblen, not in his identification of a leisure class, but in his derision of "conspicuous consumption" which is, to may way of thinking, preferable to actual physical consumption. Using by looking or observation keeps the object being consumed intact for someone else to use and enjoy later. Take the castles ordered to be built by skilled craftsmen at the behest of Mad King Ludwig of Bavaria. The artisans got to work, the citizens got to admire and nobody died prematurely because of the endeavor. Not to mention that they are still tourist attractions and satisfy aesthetic sensibilities today.
        On the other hand, our contemporary leisure class seems to be composed of a lot of people who have no personal skills or talents and, therefore, have to be maintained and, most deleterious, they also seem to be without taste. Out of touch and without taste is a dreadful combination and we have let such people set the national agenda.
        Yes, they can be replaced, but they won't be unless we come to a consensus that people who can't do anything for themselves should not be put into public office.

        http://hannah.smith-family.com

        by hannah on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 08:05:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You have totally misunderstood (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          hbk, liberaldad2

          Veblen's concept of Conspicuous Consumption, which has the specific purpose of wasting resources in order to demonstrate that the owner is richer and more important than others, and does no productive work.

          You have been misled by Market Fundamentalists into not reading the real economists starting with Adam Smith. He most assuredly took time and development into account, and went to great pains to demonstrate that wealth is not money or possessions, but the ability to produce what is needed for actual use, and get it to those who need it. That's why the Market Fundamentalists have to lie six ways from Sunday in order to pretend that he is one of them, and thereby keep you from reading him.

          Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

          by Mokurai on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 11:19:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, the leisure class making lemonade out (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            liberaldad2

            of lemons. Productive, creative and inventive people do not care. Though, if the accumulators of money are willing to spend it on art and architecture and carpentry nobody's going to object.
            While the intent is all important for people who believe that "all it takes is the idea," practical people care whether or not their vision can take material form. I'm beginning to suspect that the tactile sense, which our enamoration with the visual leads us to ignore, is what actually make the difference between people who believe and people who know.
            Our economic theorists have been people who needed to persuade others to do for them because, as Germans might say, their hands were hinged backwards.
            Like the queen bee, our leisure class is imprisoned in their incompetence. Out mistake is in pretending they're not incompetent.
            Incompetents are not entirely useless. Competent people need someone to take care of and to praise their achievements.

            http://hannah.smith-family.com

            by hannah on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 11:47:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  I am not hearing positive comments from the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TJ, liberaldad2

    predominately republican group of coworkers that I See on a daily basis and it does not seem to generating any obvious enthusiasm among the democrats that I know. Adveruing it as a victory is probably a wise strategy but I'm not getting the sense that it is a huge vote getter.

    •  We are talking about a more subtle shift (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hbk, Sylv, liberaldad2

      Republicans have been misled into thinking that the ACA would destroy the insurance they already had. A significant number of them have now realized that they will not be affected directly by losing coverage or having to pay more.

      This is progress. Other forms of progress will follow.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 11:22:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Don't forget the closing of the Medicare Part D (5+ / 0-)

    donut hole. I don't think many seniors realize that this is a result of the ACA and that they are saving hundreds of dollars a year on drug costs and that the savings will increase each year until 2020 when the hole is closed.

    You can't scare me, I'm sticking to the Union - Woody Guthrie

    by sewaneepat on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 05:26:49 AM PDT

  •  Of course, the key (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    unfangus, hbk, Sylv, liberaldad2

    to get folks to STOP voting against their own best interests is education.  The kind that happens in one-to-one conversations.  It takes a lot of effort to combat the radical right wing propaganda machine that has been blaring out misinformation for the last few decades via talk radio and Fox "news".

    It can be done, it just takes a commitment in time by all of us...

  •  Just not big enough. (0+ / 0-)

    Assuming all 15 million are happy with Obamacare, that's 5% of the population.  The other 94% (excepting the 1%) are still pissed off at private health insurance.  It'll help the Democrats some, but it's not going to be a big thing.

    •  We are talking about how to flip elections (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JamieG from Md, unfangus, hbk, liberaldad2

      which is done by getting a few percent more of the vote. We don't need everybody to see the light, just enough.

      Kos diaried recently that Democrats have a 5% advantage in generic polling right now, which is enough to overcome some of the gerrymanders, and possibly enough for us to take the House, if we can get our voters to turn out. The point of this Diary is that we will get a few percent more as the magnitude of the ACA's success grows further and is more widely recognized, and the position of Republicans becomes more and more laughable.

      Our best GOTV operatives right now are Republicans in Red states who are killing their citizens by refusing Medicaid expansion, and are passing voter suppression and women's oppression laws. We still have to knock on the doors, but Republicans are making that task much easier. Next best is states putting minimum wage increases on the ballot.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 07:41:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is what I write the ACA Signups Diaries for (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hbk, liberaldad2, Sylv

    Thank you, liberaldad2, for linking to two of them and making this case. It is not enough for brainwrap to gather and analyze the numbers, and for me to report them and some of the responses to them here on dKos. It is not enough that millions are benefiting. We have to win some more elections, and extend those benefits to everybody. Here is an example of what we are still fighting for.

    If You Can Stop Circling the Wagons Around the ACA, There is Someone I Want You to Meet

    I commented that we are not in fact circling the wagons, but trying our best to help those still left out, and asked how we can help that someone, who is dying of congestive heart failure in Texas, without Medicaid. She has minimal insurance, but can't afford the deductibles and co-pays to use it.

    (My mother died of congestive heart failure, even with excellent care. It's tough when your lungs fill up and you can't breathe.)

    Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

    by Mokurai on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 08:03:24 AM PDT

    •  I have been following what you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv

      and brainwrap have been doing, and it is awesome - many thanks.  Trying to put it all in perspective here, and generate some enthusiasm for November, when it will all hit the fan.

      'Tis with our judgments as our watches, none go just alike, yet each believes his own. - Alexander Pope

      by liberaldad2 on Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 01:06:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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