So Governor Tom Corbett (R. PA) has a new campaign ad out and the fact checkers have been debunking several things wrong with it:
http://www.usatoday.com/...
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett compares his record on taxes and jobs with that of Democratic challenger Tom Wolf in a new TV ad called "Toy Story." It should be called "Tall Story" for its multiple deceptions:
• The ad says "our taxes went through the roof" when Wolf was the "state's top tax collector." In fact, no broad-based taxes were raised during Wolf's 18 months in office.
• The ad then claims "higher taxes led to 152,000 PA workers losing their jobs." But by the preferred measure, the net job loss was actually 40,400 during Wolf's brief tenure — which included 11 months of a nationwide recession caused by a financial crisis, not by state tax policy.
• The ad displays this on the screen: "PA unemployment now WELL BELOW the national average." But it was even further below the national average when Corbett took office in January 2011. The advantage has slipped during his tenure.
• The ad says Corbett created "150,000 new jobs," a big exaggeration. Corbett is counting only private sector jobs, a fact the ad doesn't mention. Pennsylvania's net job gain is only 94,000 during Corbett's tenure after factoring in a steep decline in government jobs. - USA Today, 5/7/14
You can read more here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
That isn't the only epic fail to happen for Corbett. He finally gave up on this:
http://www.mcall.com/...
Gov. Tom Corbett won't appeal a court decision striking down the state's 2-year-old voter identification law.
In a statement issued Thursday, Corbett said his administration has too many other priorities, such as passing a balanced budget, to take the legal fight to the state Supreme Court. But he vowed to work with the Legislature to pass a new law based on guidelines Commonwealth Court Judge Bernard McGinley cited in a ruling last month.
"Based upon the court's opinion, it is clear that the requirement of photo identification is constitutionally permissible," Corbett said. "However, the court also made clear that in order for a voter identification law to be found constitutional, changes must be made to address accessibility to photo identifications.
"The administration will work with the General Assembly to address these issues. However, through the current legislative term, we must remain focused on passing a balanced budget and addressing ongoing legislative priorities."
Corbett is up for re-election amid dismal approval ratings and a deficit expected to hit $569 million by June 30.
Since the voter ID law was enacted in March 2012, the Pennsylvania Department of State has spent $5 million in federal funds it received under the Help America Vote Act and $1 million in state money to educate voters about the ID law. It spent an additional $943,000 on legal fees through March. - The Morning Call, 5/8/14
But this is the only good news he received:
http://www.wfmz.com/...
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett reports that he's raised nearly $15 million for his re-election bid, more than any of the four Democrats vying for the nomination to challenge him.
Campaign reports filed Friday put Corbett's contributions at $14.6 million, including his 2012 carryover. Even after spending $2 million on TV ads in the last five weeks, he had more than $6 million left Monday and faces no opposition in the May 20 primary. - AP, 5/10/14
He's going to spend every last dime trying to dupe voters but the polls indicate that voters despise Corbett and really don't want to give him a second term.
Meanwhile, four Democrats remain in the primary and one of them looks like a sure winner on May 20th:
http://www.mcall.com/...
Heading down the home stretch, York businessman Tom Wolf is maintaining the wide lead he built over his fellow Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls with a barrage of early TV ads.
The first statewide poll of the contest in more than a month shows support for Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz and state Treasurer Rob McCord creeping up, but they're still trailing Wolf by more than 20 points.
Wolf is the choice of 38 percent of likely Democratic voters in The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey, leading Schwartz (13 percent) and McCord (11 percent). Katie McGinty, a former state environmental protection secretary, is a distant fourth with 2 percent.
Add in undecided voters who are leaning toward one candidate, and Wolf comes away with 42 percent, Schwartz 16 percent, McCord 14 percent and McGinty 3 percent.
The cadre of voters describing themselves as unsure is dwindling but still substantial — at 33 percent — less than three weeks before the May 20 primary.
Realistically, that's not enough undecideds to vault any of Wolf's opponents into the lead, said Muhlenberg College political scientist Chris Borick, who conducted the poll. To do that, they'd have to knock off some of Wolf's supporters. - The Morning Call, 5/1/14
Not to mention Wolf has done an excellent job defending his record:
http://www.philly.com/...
In the opening question of the hour-long discussion at WPVI-TV, fellow candidate Rob McCord was asked whether he would take down a TV attack ad that questions Wolf's relationship with a former York mayor charged with murder and acquitted in the death of a black woman during the city's 1969 race riots.
McCord, Pennsylvania's state treasurer, said he did not intend to stop airing the ad.
"I felt compelled to put it on the air as a matter, actually, of principle," he said. "We have to know how to confront issues of racism."
Wolf said he agreed to head then-Mayor Charlie Robertson's re-election campaign in 2001 because of his accomplishments in office. But after Robertson was charged, Wolf said he helped persuade him to abandon his campaign.
"I was instrumental in getting Mayor Robertson to withdraw from the race," Wolf said "And I thought the way I did it was appropriate."
Thursday's debate was taped and is scheduled to be aired this weekend. A final debate is Monday night at Drexel University in Philadelphia. The primary election is May 20, and the candidates are competing for the Democratic Party nomination to challenge Republican Gov. Tom Corbett in the Nov. 4 general election.
On another issue that has dogged Wolf for weeks, U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz charged that Wolf was "leaving out part of the story" in describing the 2006 sale of his family-owned building products company and his rescue several years later of the company, the York-based Wolf Organization. She said Wolf had profited from the sale, while hundreds of employees were being laid off.
Wolf said the layoffs occurred after his departure, as the company shrank during the national recession.
"I did go back and save that business" in 2009, as well as the jobs it provides, he said. - AP, 5/8/14
And Wolf is a candidate who knows how to stay calm even when your opponents viciously attack him:
http://articles.mcall.com/...
Tom Wolf waits. It's not yet his turn to speak.
Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, one of the three other Democrats running for governor, has the debate mic and she's using it to rip Wolf — again. She criticizes him for being a multimillionaire who did not take a salary while in state government. She flays him for remaining friends with a former lawmaker who was convicted of fraud.
Wolf doesn't interrupt, doesn't blow up. He stares intently and smiles occasionally until his rebuttal time.
"I'm not used to apologizing for not taking any perks or benefits while secretary of revenue," Wolf says, as the audience at Franklin & Marshall College laughs.
He goes on to describe former Democratic state Rep. Steve Stetler as a childhood friend, while making clear he is against anyone's keeping a public pension if convicted of government fraud.
Watching from her York County home, 85-year-old Mary Toomey smiles at the television.
Wolf's sally showed her that the campaign trail — with accusations of ethical lapses, business transgressions and racism — has not sullied him. Wolf remains, in Toomey's eyes, the 10-year-old choirboy who sang solo at their Methodist church and the 65-year-old adult she sees as one of central Pennsylvania's most influential, sound leaders.
"When he was finished," Toomey said, "he was still a gentleman." - The Morning Call, 5/9/14
And at this point, Wolf looks like he's a sure a winner:
http://www.phillymag.com/...
The truth is that the race has been over for weeks, and Tom Wolf is going to be the nominee.
How do we know? Just look at the recent polling:
One-time Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards once joked to reporters in his 1983 reelection race that "the only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy," and self-funding former revenue secretary and kitchen cabinet maker Tom Wolf is in roughly as strong a position in the contest for the Democratic nomination.
Sure, with a couple weeks to go until primary election day on May 20th anything could happen — but it probably won't.
If any decent opposition research on Wolf existed, one of the other candidates would have used it by now. That Schwartz and McCord are using the home stretch period to hit Wolf with stuff like an alleged association with a racist politician from York, or the Wolf Organization's failure to source 100% of its kitchen cabinets from Pennsylvania tells us the oppo researchers have come up short. This just isn't stuff that's going to gain traction with anyone beyond committed anti-Wolfers, but it's the best they've got.
And if any of these third-rate opposition messages do manage to break through a bit, well, that's what all that money's for. Rob McCord suggests you're a racist at a debate? Cut a five and a half minute video the next day featuring African-American community leaders from York leaping to your defense:
This kind of money buries weak opposition messaging. More people will see this response ad than will even hear the original charge.
But while money is an important reason that Wolf is going to walk away with the Democratic nomination, it's certainly not the only reason.
Take another look at the polling chart above. If you take out the less reliable internal polls that campaigns occasionally tease to the media (I did), Allyson Schwartz's support peaked early in November of 2013 at 22%. If you add the internal polls back in, she peaked in July 2013. And then it was just all downhill from there.
This is a story about Allyson Schwartz failing to excite enough Democratic activists and donors — perhaps because, as John Baer has suggested, she never anticipated there would be a competitive Democratic primary to take on the most unpopular Republican Governor in the nation. Team Schwartz ran like they didn't have a primary to win, and then failed to recalibrate even after it was quite clear by the fall that this strategy would not close the deal with the primary voters.
For a little while in mid-to-late fall it looked like former Rendell DEP Secretary Katie McGinty might pick up steam and overtake Schwartz, but that boomlet had faded by mid-November. Then nothing really moved for a while until Wolf went on the air in late February and stayed the prohibitive frontrunner ever since. He seems to have cleared the Democratic electorate's progressive ideological threshold and persuaded voters he has the most realistic shot at defeating Tom Corbett. - Philadelphia Magazine, 5/2/14
And Wolf's strategy has paid off:
http://www.pghcitypaper.com/...
Even after all of this, Tom Wolf is still 25 points ahead," says G. Terry Madonna, pollster and director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College. And there may be fewer undecided votes up for grabs than it appears, he says: "One thing we know traditionally about undecided voters is that a large percentage of them will not vote."
"In order to beat Wolf, you have to find something to pull him back into the pack, and that's tough to do when you have a group of candidates who agree on 90 percent of the issues," Madonna adds. "Then, you have to do something to pick up a good chunk of that support in order to overtake him. At this point, with three weeks left to do it, I don't know if it can be done."
Although it seems funny to say that a frontrunner with a 25 percent lead came out of nowhere, that's the case with Wolf. As of Jan. 26, when Wolf appeared as one candidate among eight at a Carnegie Mellon University debate, Wolf was as anonymous as Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski or minister/businessman Max Myers. While he answered all the questions fully and confidently, he did little to set himself apart from the crowd, especially compared to others on the stage.
Shortly afterward, though, Wolf began running television commercials highlighting his story. He was a Jeep-driving businessman who'd run and rescued a family-owned furniture company, and whose employees participated in a generous profit-sharing program.
Making the ads even more effective was the fact that no one challenged them. His opponents stayed off television for weeks.
"Tom Wolf has a great story to tell and he's got the money to go out and tell it," Rendell tells CP. "He got on TV early and by the time anyone else did, it was pretty well over.
"That was a gigantic political blunder by McCord and Schwartz. They let him go on TV for seven or eight weeks unanswered. The momentum you can build is amazing."
Duquesne law professor and political pundit Joseph Sabino Mistick says Wolf followed the playbook that Rendell himself used against Bob Casey during his 2002 gubernatorial run. "He bought broad and deep," Mistick says. "But what's refreshing here is [Wolf] actually had a story to tell, and it's a story that people find appealing. That's why so many politicians and voters were drawn to him so quickly."
Mistick says he was skeptical of Wolf at first, but people "told me I had to check him out. So I met with him and I said, ‘How the hell do you expect to get elected with zero experience and no political infrastructure?' He said, ‘I have a message and a story to tell.' Well, it's been working."
Republican political consultant Bill Green agrees that Wolf has delivered his message better than any of the other candidates — in either party. "His timing was perfect," Green says. "In January and February, we were all locked inside and frozen and he had the airwaves all to himself. No one responded. And it worked. I've had people recite that commercial back to me word-for-word." - Pittsburgh City Paper, 5/7/14
And what makes Wolf very appealing to voters is not just his stance on the issues but the fact that he's a true blue, caring businessman who actually does care about his workers:
http://www.pennlive.com/...
Tom Wolf likes to tell a story on the campaign trail about how, as a Peace Corps volunteer in his youth, he taught villagers in India, over their own strenuous objections, to come together to grow high-yield rice.
It was quite a journey for a young man from small-town York, Pa., who had traveled halfway around the world, bridging languages and cultures, to reach common ground with a people who had no reason to listen to him.
Wolf may not have known it at the time, but it was excellent preparation for the path he now finds himself traveling — as one of four Democratic candidates seeking to challenge Republican Gov. Tom Corbett this fall.
If Wolf is to become the Commonwealth’s next governor, he’ll have to find a way to bridge the cultural and provincial gaps — the tribal differences — that are a hallmark of Pennsylvania politics. That formative experience is evidence that he will.
Like his three rivals, Wolf espouses imposing a much-needed severance tax on Pennsylvania’s booming natural gas industry.
Wolf’s proposed 5 percent levy on drillers would bring Pennsylvania, which currently stands alone nationally in the absence of such a tax, into line with other gas-producing states such as West Virginia and Texas.
Wolf logically counters Republican arguments that drillers would flee Pennsylvania for more tax-friendly climes by pointing out that the megalithic corporations already fold those taxes into the price of their product. And the burden of such a levy is borne by consumers in other states who buy natural gas.
Wolf’s campaign platform calls for using the roughly $700 million windfall from such a tax to fund schools, roads and renewable energy technology. With a businessman’s keen knowledge of the art of the possible, a 5 percent levy, particularly with the state facing a deficit of as much as $1.2 billion, seems far more achievable than McCord’s proposed 10 percent starting point for negotiation.
And even though he could rightfully lay claim to membership in the 1 percent, Wolf has proven himself keenly attuned to the interests of working people — not least by sharing 20 percent to 30 percent of the profits of his family-owned cabinet business with his employees.
Wolf’s argument for raising the minimum wage from the current $7.25 to $10.10 a hour is a compelling one - his rivals also espouse a hike.
The candidate says he wants to create a decent society, in which those making the minimum don't have to go on food stamps and can afford health care. The increase is a "modest" one, he said - not so high that it would have a net effect of depressing job creation.
Unlike Corbett, a lawyer who supposedly knows what’s good for business, Wolf has actually run a successful business, one that takes pride in being fair to its workers.
Wolf gave his own workers, who were making more than the minimum wage, a significant raise and his company now has more jobs not fewer.
He said the raise "made my employees more productive… It made them more enthusiastic about working for the company." That’s ample refutation to the sky-is-falling arguments of opponents who claim job-creation and the state’s economic health would be harmed by raising the wage. - The Patriot-News, 5/10/14
And progressives should also be excited about Wolf's candidacy. Not only is he a big time supporter of marriage equality, medical marijuana legalization and workers' rights, he also earned the enthusiastic endorsement from his former primary opponent, John Hanger, the most liberal candidate in the primary:
http://www.pennlive.com/...
"In these times, when many leaders of all types of institutions too often use their power to benefit themselves and use fear to divide, Tom Wolf stands out as a leader dedicated to the people and the common good. Tom leads not by appealing to the worst in humanity but by unleashing the good in all of us to serve higher purposes.
"Tom, however, is no dreamer. He is a doer.
"Tom has created jobs and paychecks and he has done so the right way, sharing profits and developing his own line of Wolf-branded products made right here in America. Tom's expertise in manufacturing is crucial to the future of Pennsylvania. Even as Tom dealt with the pressures of turning around his business, Tom has treated workers and customers generously. Remarkably, as special as his business leadership is, Tom is much more than a business leader.
"Even though he could have easily turned away, Tom Wolf for decades has run toward the struggles of our communities and families. I know so because I have known Tom Wolf for more than 10 years. Tom has tackled some of the most difficult issues, including urban redevelopment, tax policy, and education. When doing so, he always gave his time, money and powerful ideas to help the vulnerable, disadvantaged, or marginalized.
"The people of Pennsylvania are right to see in Tom Wolf a unique, special leader who is devoted to others more than himself. He has proven his selflessness and care for people - which is the highest quality of great leadership - in many big and small ways.
"Tom's success in this campaign surprises and mystifies some people, but that success has a simple explanation. The people of Pennsylvania correctly judge that Tom Wolf offers the intelligent, caring leadership that Pennsylvanians crave. Tom and his message resonate powerfully with people all across the Commonwealth.
"Tom's combination of true leadership, intelligence, and progressive plans means that he will be the great and transformational governor that Pennsylvania needs desperately right now so that the people can create more and better jobs and save our schools. Tom Wolf also will bring forth a new birth of freedom by protecting every Pennsylvanians right to vote, supporting marriage equality, fighting prejudice and discrimination, and by reforming marijuana laws. And Tom will restore integrity to the Governor's office by banning the taking of gifts of all types.
"I strongly, enthusiastically endorse Tom Wolf, because he will be the great, transformational governor Pennsylvanians need so desperately right now! Tom will be a governor for all Pennsylvanians, regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation, religion, and national origin.
"I also endorse Tom Wolf because he has run a positive campaign that has consistently discussed the issues that matter to our future. Importantly, Tom has never forgotten that Tom Corbett must be defeated, no matter whom is the Democratic nominee.
"Finally, I came to America in 1970 as a 12-year-old boy and became a citizen in 1977. For the last 37 years, I have had the right to vote. On May 20th, I will cast my vote for Tom Wolf, and I have never been more excited to vote for a candidate. Please join me in voting for Tom Wolf on May 20th and then again this November." - John Hanger, 5/5/14
I was a Schwartz supporter early on but Wolf has proven to be the best candidate to defeat Corbett and move Pennsylvania forward. Like Hanger, I too throw my full support behind Wolf's candidacy. The primary is May 20th. If you would like to donate and get involved with Wolf's campaign and help him win the primary on May 20th, you can do so here:
http://www.wolfforpa.com/