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U.S. Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes addresses the crowd during a campaign stop with Former President Bill Clinton (not pictured) at campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky February 25, 2014. REUTERS/John Sommers II
New numbers from NBC and Marist among registered voters in the U.S. Senate races in Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky showing once again that Arkansas is not as close a contest as it was once billed and that both Georgia and Kentucky are in play:
Arkansas Senate:
Mark Pryor: 51
Tom Cotton: 40

Georgia Senate:
David Perdue: 45
Michelle Nunn: 41

Jack Kingston: 43
Michelle Nunn: 43

Michelle Nunn: 42
Karen Handel: 39

Kentucky Senate:
Mitch McConnell: 46
Allison Lundergan Grimes: 45

In Arkansas and Kentucky, the outcome of the GOP primary is not in doubt, but in Georgia, Perdue and Kingston are running close for the top spot in the May 20 primary, which will certainly be followed by a GOP runoff.

Even though Democrats are only leading in one of these races, the key thing to remember is that both Kentucky and Georgia are currently held by Republicans.  In other words, according to this poll, Democrats have a healthy lead in the one state that they control—and are competitive in the two states that they don't. That's good news for Democrats.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon May 12, 2014 at 07:24 AM PDT.

Also republished by Kos Georgia, My Old Kentucky Kos, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  GOP Secret Weapon.....BENGHAZEEEE! (9+ / 0-)

    It's a game-changer I tells ya!!!

  •  What about the Atlanta Journal Constitution poll? (14+ / 0-)

    Nunn leads in every matchup!

  •  Michelle Nunn seems like a great candidate (9+ / 0-)

    Wondering if when debates finally happen if she will be able to seal the deal - even though she's pretty moderate, the upgrade from Saxxxxby is pretty significant

    •  Have you seen her ads? perfect.. nt (5+ / 0-)
      •  You see John Oliver's version of the KY-Sen ads? (3+ / 0-)

        Oh my.  Totally NSFW or DailyKos.

      •  I disagree... (0+ / 0-)

        (a) I will certainly vote for Nunn.

        (b) And some of her ads are OK.

        (c) But in another ad she (1) says she's going to "end bickering in Washington" and (2) that "nobody in Washington should be getting a subsidy for their health insurance." This encourages ignorance and cynicism, for reasons I hope are obvious to anyone on DKos.

        In other words, I expect her to be a Blue Dog. But that's still better than any of the crazy GOP alternatives.

        By the way, one of the GOP candidates, Jack Kingston, has an ad in which he also says he's going to end bickering in Washington because he's the most conservative candidate in the field, and a "fighter." Not making that up.

        "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

        by HeyMikey on Mon May 12, 2014 at 10:48:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah. Ending "bickering" is ending democratic (0+ / 0-)

          debate.

          And "fighters" are just the people to put an end to the fighting that is "bickering".

          This is the country of those three great rights: freedom of conscience, freedom of speech, and the wisdom never to exercise either of them. -- Mark Twain.

          by JJustin on Wed May 14, 2014 at 02:39:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  We've got tricks to borrow over the Heidi (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, Shawn87, VirginiaBlue

      Heitkamp (D-ND from 2012) that should be good for 5%-plus out of the GOPer "Base" pool.

      Perdue is dangerous because of his money. But that's about all. It'll likely carry him through the primary. Then people start getting better looks at him.

      Same time, Deal is an anchor.

      Medicaid Expansion is going to kill the both of them. It's a rare family in Georgia that doesn't have somebody, or a maid, or yard men who don't need the Medicaid Expansion.

      Hell, it costs less to do it. Period.

      (Michelle by 53%-46%. Carter by a couple points.)

      "Stealing kids' lunch money makes them strong and independent." -- after Paul "False Prophet" Ryan

      by waterstreet2013 on Mon May 12, 2014 at 09:00:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is she the daughter (or grandaughter) (0+ / 0-)

      of Sam Nunn?

      This is the country of those three great rights: freedom of conscience, freedom of speech, and the wisdom never to exercise either of them. -- Mark Twain.

      by JJustin on Wed May 14, 2014 at 02:38:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sure (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente
    In other words, according to this poll, Democrats have a healthy lead in the one state that they control—and are competitive in the two states that they don't. That's good news for Democrats.
    That's good news - just like having 3 players on base.  The point is, will the batter hit a line drive, home run or a grounder to short for a double play.

    Those poll numbers are not that comforting since a higher proportion of  undecideds usually moves into the column of the dominant party.

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Mon May 12, 2014 at 07:38:25 AM PDT

    •  Races In Three Different States With Three (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, bear83

      different electorates aren't analogous at all to men on base waiting for the team's clean-up batter. The DSCC and Bennett aren't clean-up hitters and the candidates are all running their own races.

      It's more like a marathon where everyone who finishes is ranked. The most they can hope for - other than their rivals coming up lame - from the DSCC is some water (cash) along the way.

      •  Obamacare is the big unknown (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, Shawn87

        By November, (a) 8 million or so people (households?) will have had private Obamacare policies for 8 months, (b) another several million will have gotten Medicaid via Obamacare, and (c) another few million might understand that they would have Medicaid if not for the GOP blocking them.

        Those will be major influences on voting behavior in November--for better or worse--and it's too soon for them to have a major influence on the polls.

        My bet is: better.

        "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

        by HeyMikey on Mon May 12, 2014 at 10:54:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Thank you comment police! (0+ / 0-)

        What it is about is opportunity.  The so called good news counts exactly for zip, since now it is only potential.

        I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

        by Satya1 on Mon May 12, 2014 at 06:29:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The GOP is going to get shellacked in Nov (13+ / 0-)

    If the signals I'm seeing hold, and Dems run on Obamacare and raising the minimum wage, the GOP is in trouble because they ware not prepared for it.

    I'm not saying we'll take back the house, but we will hold the Senate and perhaps even adda  seat, and get close to the house, with an outside possibility we'll  take it.

    Imagine the most profound idea ever conceptualized occupying this space. Now expect exactly the opposite. You'll never be disappointed.

    by Gurnt on Mon May 12, 2014 at 07:39:12 AM PDT

    •  This is what I love about dKos.. (0+ / 0-)

      every indicator and analysts see the exact opposite of a "GOP shellacking", but we got the most optimistic crowd on the web!

      •  what analysts see a Republican wave coming? (10+ / 0-)

        Charlie Cook says Republicans will pick up a few senate seats and house seats, but lose a few governors. Larry Sabato says the same. That doesn't sound like a shellacking on our side.

        ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:12:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Plus, both Cook and Sabato are (6+ / 0-)

          long-time conservatives. No surprise there.

          Through thoughts, words and actions, we live the truth we know. -- L. Spencer

          by orlbucfan on Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:18:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I responded to "GOP is gonna get shellacked" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Iberian

          and no one is predicting that.

          In recent weeks, the analysts have moderated their predictions a bit, but nearly everyone predicts GOP gains in the Senate - which is most decidedly not a shellacking.

          •  That's the thing though (8+ / 0-)

            If we somehow managed to break even by taking GA and KY while only losing WV and SD (a distinct, but unlikely, possibility), then that would be a huge shellacking for the Republicans. You can't just look at the Senate plusses and minuses in a vacuum like you can in the House.

            This is a brutal year for us. Even losing just a couple seats would be a great year for Dems because it sets us up well for a true Republican shellacking in 2016, where they have to defend their 2010 and 2004 Senate gains. The 2016 class hasn't felt a Democratic wave year since 1992. It's going to be a GOPocalypse for them.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

            by Le Champignon on Mon May 12, 2014 at 09:01:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I see.. in that context, I agree then.. (0+ / 0-)

              Even losing "only" four seats would kinda be a win in that 2016 will be so favorable for Dems.

              Personally, I think they GOP will take control by a slight majority then give it back in 2016.

              And.. Don't forget, Angus King may caucus with the GOP as well and that could give them a majority.

              Worst case scenario is GOP winning against Landrieu, Hagan, Begich, Pryor, Walsh and in WV and SD with no losses in KY or GA.

              That, along with a King switch would be nasty, but still very likely the Dems can retake it in 2016.  The GOP would have to win 10 seats to make it difficult to retake the Senate in 2016.  And, with Obama in the White House, even a GOP majority Senate and House can do very little (except block nominations).

          •  Well, you said 'the exact opposite'.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            ..which would be a DEM Shellacking.  It is demonstrably wrong to say every indicator and analyst predicts that.

            Journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed: everything else is public relations. - George Orwell

            by Wayward Son on Mon May 12, 2014 at 09:21:00 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Haven't You Noticed The GOTP Never Gets Trounced (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Gurnt, Shawn87, METAL TREK, KJB Oregon

            or "shellacked?"

            According to the corporate media, it's always the Dems barely 'hanging on,' or the Democrats 'surprised' or - when Obama trounced McCain & Romney - the Democrats just 'win.'

            We only see florid language like "shellacking" (thanks, Obama!) when Democrats lose - even by the tiniest margins. Remember the Shrub's "mandate?"

            Looking forward from the tumultuous early days of President Obama's first term, Republicans found themselves, for different reasons, facing three consecutive Senate elections -- 2010, 2012, and 2014 -- with fundamentals on their side. The financial crisis had left economic ruin in its wake and, with the recovery halting, Democratic incumbents were cannon fodder for a bellicose, conservative electorate.

            Even with the fundamentals on their side, the GOTP failed - resoundingly, embarrassingly - to re-take the Senate in 2010 and 2012. In fact, they have continued to lose seats yet we are still  bombarded with memes suggesting doom and gloom for the Democrats.

            The GOTP is demonstrably out of step and losing with the national and most state-wide electorates. (Goodness, Democrats are competitive in AK, AR, KY, NC, and GA!) But still the media insists on obscuring the real policy problems (for the GOTP) and pretends that it's the Democrats who are in trouble everywhere.

            This while we see GOTP muckety-mucks trying to co-opt the minimum wage issue and, at least rhetorically, champion workers. Those mucks know the Koch Bros. cash isn't going to be enough no matter how much the corporate media tries to cover for them. Despite 2014 fundamentals favoring them, as far as I can tell the GOTP is running on the same losing policies that cost them in 2010 and 2012. Even Benghaziii! is a retread.

            Why should anyone be expecting the same/worse/weaker GOTP that lost in 2010 and 2012 to capitalize on the fundamentals in 2014?

        •  I've seen some national newspapers (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisVoter, bear83, Shawn87, METAL TREK

          where the writers have casually thrown in lines like "it is expected to be a GOP favoring year" without any support.

          But the professional rankers like Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg have ratings that point to what you said...GOP favored to get some Senate seats, House likely to remain even or gain a few Republicans, and Democrats favored to get some governors.

      •  REPUBLICANS don't even see a republican (9+ / 0-)

        takeover of the senate...they dream about it, and spend millions to create that idea and try to get Democratic voters to stay home.

        The republicans biggest problem is themselves-their incredible arrogance and their history of voting against every possible group of voters and then lying about it.

        They are in the shit and they know it.

        Boycott all republican owned businesses-see how they like THAT.

        by old mark on Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:16:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  'Optimistic' is a good way to put it ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JJ In Illinois, ivorybill

        'Deluded' might be better, though; not to slam anyone or throw cold water.

        That state lineup is inescapable and we live in the Kos bubble; our voters will mostly stay home as usual in the midterms; and  the GOP will cop 5-7 seats.

        'Call me pessimistic,' to coin a phrase.

        •  Tuffie, you're being, by definition, pessimistic. (0+ / 0-)

          Saying people are being "deluded" is an assumption. As is saying "WE" are in some type of bubble, kos or otherwise. I reserve the right to add data points as they come, to build my opinion. If I feel based on the available facts that optimism is warranted, I will feel that way. I feel pretty good about the Senate for Dems based on the info available at this time. I think the Dem positions will improve as the year goes on. Not to throw cold water or slam your outlook in any way.

          "Because we are all connected...."

          by Shawn87 on Mon May 12, 2014 at 02:23:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Optimism is great (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        notallthatpolitical

        And we all know the need to donate, volunteer, act.  But sometimes we develop our own wishful thinking here.  The overwhelming GOP dominance in the red states might cause  more moderates to switch to our side; but we're a long way from the finish line and I'm not going to buy into the optimism for the sake of optimism.

        “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

        by ivorybill on Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:29:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Now for the cold water....Landrieu..... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HeyMikey, ivorybill

          That is going to be one ugly and nasty Louisiana political contest.....

          Jesus, babies, oil, name-calling, corruption....

          Win or lose...this one makes be proud to be an American....and glad I don't live in Louisiana....

          •  Sadly, the trend toward the GOP (0+ / 0-)

            is stronger in Louisiana than just about anywhere.  As NC and VA turn purple, LA just gets redder and redder.

            “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

            by ivorybill on Mon May 12, 2014 at 11:27:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not entirely true (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ivorybill

              Obama did better in LA in 2012 than he did in 2008.  MS was also in this category, one of only a few states in the nation where this was the case.

              26, OH-16, fiscal moderate, foreign policy liberal, social libertarian 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em Champion

              by StephenCLE on Mon May 12, 2014 at 12:22:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Dems Must Turn Out Though. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      METAL TREK, Gurnt

      I agree that the GOP will get shellacked BUT ONLY if Democrats get their collective asses to the freakin polls and vote this November.

      If so, we win. But if not-which is a strong possibility, then the GOP terrorists continue to wreak their havoc upon our country. We must organize fantastic ground games everywhere; get new voters registered,  repeatedly contact them and then move them to the polls on election day. If there are new Voter ID laws, we must make sure said voter has everything s/he needs.

      The time to start is NOW.  

      If Not Us, Who,..... If Not Now, When?

      by VirginiaBlue on Mon May 12, 2014 at 02:28:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Non-Super-Junkies (10+ / 0-)

    Sure, most people on this site are political junkies and most everyone on here knows who Mitch McConnell is.  But for those of us who are not super-junkies knowing everything about every single race all over the country:

    Arkansas Senate:
    (i) Mark Pryor (D): 51
    Tim Cotton (R): 40

    Georgia Senate:
    David Perdue (R): 45
    Michelle Nunn (D): 41

    Jack Kingston (R): 43
    Michelle Nunn (D): 43

    Michelle Nunn (D): 42
    Karen Handel (R): 39

    Kentucky Senate:
    (i) Mitch McConnell (R): 46
    Allison Lundergan Grimes (D): 45

    [Terrorists] are a dime a dozen, they are all over the world and for every one we lock up there will be three to take his place. --Digby

    by rabel on Mon May 12, 2014 at 07:40:30 AM PDT

  •  Pryor quite a surprise, Nunn wow! Grimes :-( (6+ / 0-)

    I'd expected him to be tied or slightly behind, but this is clearly indicating he is solidifying his position.  I doubt hes up over 50, but he's close enough. Thats good news.

    The Georgia news is great news. If Nunn is that competitive, Georgia Dems might be able to pull it off with an aggressive turnout of the Black vote. Nunn is running a very good Georgia Democrat campaign. Im impressed with her on the stump, too. And her ads.wow...pitch perfect for Suburban Atlanta/North Georgia.

    However, im still terribly unimpressed with Grimes Campaign operation. Unlike Nunn, Grimes is not vying for an open seat. Mitch McConnell is an unpopular incumbent yet Grimes still hasnt come up with a simple, compelling argument for why Kentucky should get rid of him. Shes hammering nothing home. Furthermore, McConnell isnt running his best campaign,  with numerous missteps. Every time, Grimes fails to capitalize and move the needle. Look at that latest 'not my job' error by McConnell. Still, he's right there within reach of a majority. In the end, she still hasnt convinced enough GOP voters to stay home. Furthermore,  shes been weak on ObamaCare unlike Gov. Bashear. Every other Democrat in the country is running to it, including Hagan who faces a really tough landscape. Nore has she done any 'shape the battlefield' interference in the GOP primary like Harry Reid and Clare McCaskill did. So, ive been skeptical of Grimes abilities so far and nothing ive seen from her camp is changing that so far. I hope she kicks it into high gear soon.

    •  Looks like May 20 is when she'll have to put on (5+ / 0-)

      her 'A' game....

      http://elect.ky.gov/...

      •  Well, Fancy Farm is in 9 weeks. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skillet, ivorybill, pademocrat, Shawn87

        And remeber,  we havent even begun to hear from Mitch.

        Look, ive been watching Mitch McConnell's campaigns for 20 years and I tell you that he will fight like a tasmanian devil. There is literally nothing he wont do. If youre going to beat him, youve got to be an even nastier bastard than him. Absolutely vicious. So far from Grimes, were getting ho hum.

        •  Guessing Grimes knows El Tortuga also....;-) (0+ / 0-)
        •  I think you've got these races backwards (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, JBraden, ivorybill, Shawn87

          Mitch and his allies have spent millions attacking Bevin and Grimes and Grimes has only now just started airing ads, as she's been reserving her money. Despite that, she's still been neck and neck in every poll with him. She's been laying low, traveling across the state, building her campaign, which has only just begun. She's also outraised Mitch since she got in the race. Last quarter he spent more than he raised, too.

          Nunn being in the low 40s is not inspiring. It is where any credible Democrat who will still lose would poll, because Democrats have a high floor in Georgia. The problem is she actually needs to get over 50% of the vote, and to do that she needs to have high enough non-white turnout (hard in a midterm) and also win over enough whites, who routinely vote at least 3-1 against Democrats. In Kentucky, Grimes doesn't need to get to 50%, and I see this thing ending up 49-48 or something like that no matter who wins. She also only needs to win over enough whites who are registered Democrats and still often will vote for Democrats in some races. She only needs a bit more of them than Lunsford got in 2008 and Mongiardo did in 2004.

          One of our members took down the gist of what was said on "Comment on Kentucky" this week:

          U.S. Senate Race- What number does Mitch need in the primary? Sam Youngman says pollsters tell him two numbers that Bevin gets that will be a big trouble for Mitch- 33% and 40%. The panel discusses the divisive primary and Ronnie Ellis notes Mitch has always ran [scortched] earth campaigns before, but this is the first against a fellow Republican. Ronnie says the people he has talked to before in nasty GOP primaries have a different attitude, and are angry and feel personally attacked. Tom Loftus thinks it could be an enthusiasm issue too. Sam Youngman says when he talks to Bevin supporters, they feel he has went over the line and questioning his integrity. Alison Grimes is beginning a 50 county bus tour. Republicans are attacking her for not being in the office. Sam Youngman thinks it will not be an effective attack. He thinks she is introducing her to voters. They noted her first ad was on tv about veterans. Ronnie Ellis questions whether she should have already tried this early, but he notes their strategy has been to hoard money to be competitive with Mitch in the general, and so far she is even or slightly ahead of him. Ronnie Ellis notes that he is not seen the type of enthusiasm for Grimes than he has seen in the three campaigns he has watched.

          ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

          by James Allen on Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:31:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thats actually fits with my view. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ivorybill, Shawn87

            The most likely outcome is that they both lose, but Nunn has much higher potential than Grimes.

            Nunn needs robust black turnout and a healthy suburban vote, but thats not enough to win. But what gives her an edge is the Nunn name in Middle Georgia. The Nunn goes way back in the Macon/Warner Robbins area and shes been working that area where Democrats usually fear to tread. Typically Dems only work the cities and Atlanta suburbs, where they have to run up the score. But Nunn has a statewide name. Thats going to help. Her social network through Hands on Atlanta, a big deal with affluent suburban moms, is going to help her big time too.

            Grimes, however, needs a big turnout from white folks, since thats mostly what Kentucky's got. But that wont get her a win. She also needs a lot of Republicans to stay home. Bevin will be a non-factor. Once the primary is over, the GOP will come home to Mitch and thats that. The question is how many of them will turnout for him. And thats why Grimes needs to dirty him up, which shes not doing effectively enough to create that 'fuck mitch' dynamic in the GOP.

            •  no, it doesn't. (0+ / 0-)

              none of that corroborates with what you're saying. Except that I'm saying that Nunn needs whites who don't vote Democratic in other major races, and you're saying she has a good chance at getting them. Maybe she does, but I think Georgia is racially polarized enough that it will be difficult; there are few winnable whites for now beyond those who already vote Dem.
              In Kentucky, white voters are not as polarized. They're willing to go either way in some races.

              ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

              by James Allen on Mon May 12, 2014 at 09:28:03 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  lol...youre kidding: (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ivorybill, HeyMikey
                In Kentucky, white voters are not as polarized. They're willing to go either way in some races.
                Ridiculous.

                 White folks in Kentucky are as racially polarized as they are in West Virgina, and you can rest assured that in Kentucky Obama is going to be hung around Grimes neck...not enough blacks to make a difference if you do that. All Mitch has to say is Grimes=Obama, and shes finished. Kentucky is a way more racist state than Georgia. By far.

                In Georgia, however, there are a vast number of white voters who have moved there from the North. Thats what populated the Atlanta suburbs. Grimes=Obama will hurt, but wont kill you. Plus, doing that will drive black turnout which is a big factor in Georgia, unlike Kentucky. Plus, Nunn has her own name. There are a lot of older GOP voters who voted for Sam Nunn. Grimes has no such name.

                •  do you know what racial polarization means? (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  HeyMikey, Shawn87, jncca

                  In Georgia and the rest of the Deep South Democrats get 10-25% of the white vote and 85-95% of the African American vote. That is racially polarized.

                  In West Virginia and Kentucky there are few enough non-white voters that in order for a Democrat to win, which they do, often, they need to get a much more substantial portion of the white vote. In West Virginia winning Democrats must get a majority of the white vote in most victories.

                  Even in the presidential race in 2008 Obama got more of the white vote in West Virginia than he did in many other Southern states. CNN's exit polls had him at 10% of the 2hite vote in Alabama and 98% of the African American vote. That's polarized. In Georgia he had 23% of whites and 98% of African Americans. In Kentucky, though, CNN had Obama getting 36% of whites and 90% of African Americans. In West Virginia Obama got 41% of whites according to the exit poll, while there were too few non-whites to poll. Those are less racially polarized.
                  check out the exits. I don't swear that they're 100% accurate, but simple math and logic tells you it must be true to an extent.

                  ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

                  by James Allen on Mon May 12, 2014 at 10:18:30 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  2012 is more indicative of the norm. (0+ / 0-)

                    In 2008, Obama won Indiana. I dont think anyone is crazy enough to think thats going to be a norm. In West Virgina he won a handful of counties and lost by 13. Thats not normal.

                    In 2012 in West Virginia, he lost by 27 points. Didnt carry a single county. Thats more normal.

                    While the raw vote is more indicative of the electorate than the exit poll, there is truth to what you say. But you cant beat the raw vote..and in Kentucky the raw vote for Obama is substantially smaller than it is in Georgia.

                    •  the "norm"? Really? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Shawn87

                      2012 was the worst Democratic performance in a presidential election in, what, forever?

                      Below presidential elections, Democrats do much better than that "norm". Since we're talking about senate races here, that's more important than presidential performance. In 2 of the last 3 senate races Dems have gotten 47-49% of the vote in Kentucky and we've won all the recent ones in WV, we're only unlikely to win one now. In gubernatorial races we've done well in both. Obama's 2012 presidential performance is not the norm of how well Democrats do in these states.

                      The "raw vote" had Obama higher in Georgia than Kentucky or West Virginia because that includes non-whites, which there are much more of in Georgia than in either of the other two, and Obama only got as many votes in those latter two states because he did better among whites there than in Georgia, because they simply do not have as many non-white voters. If we're trying to figure out how racially polarized the white vote is, looking at the total vote, including non-whites, is not very helpful.

                      I wish we had 2012 exit polls, but they declined to do them in many Southern states that year.

                      ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

                      by James Allen on Mon May 12, 2014 at 11:10:47 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  one more thing: (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Shawn87

                Kentucy does vote for LOCAL Democrats, aided by statewide elections that occur in the off, odd number years. Thats how Grimes got her current seat. But the Federal elections come in the even years and that state has, like most largely rural, white states, gotten redder and redder in the 21st Century. Thats why the state isnt on the map in Presidential elections and no Democrat has had a Senate seat since 1998.

                To me this election is going to look a lot like Rand Paul than a tight nailbiter.

                Romney won Kentucky by 23 points, with Obama only winning a majority in ONE county. But Romney only won by less than 8 points in Georgia and won more than two dozen counties.

            •  Gov. Deal could influence Nunn. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Shawn87, JGibson

              Sooner or later, Gov. Nathan Deal's ethical skeletons are bound to come raging out of his closet. If that happens before November, we could see a significant enough Dem shift in GA to seal a win for Nunn...and maybe for Jason Carter.

              "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

              by HeyMikey on Mon May 12, 2014 at 10:57:49 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Mitch is both devious and well-funded (4+ / 0-)

          Senators in top leadership positions leave little to chance.  Remember the way Harry Reid pulled out all the stops when he started feeling a threat?  McConnell will do the same, and he has access to incredible amounts of money.

          Grimes has to hit hard and consistently on McConnell as totally craven and corrupt, and somehow make that stick. This has to be unrelentingly negative, and it has to be populist, and it has to do two things: Depress tea party turnout, and make Mitch repugnant to any centrists who might otherwise vote for him.  

          “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

          by ivorybill on Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:35:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  money is highly over rated (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ivorybill, Shawn87

            I am sure I have crowed on here in the past how great fundraising was going for some Dem candidate, but the reality is that you don't have to win the money race. You just need to be able to raise enough money to get your message heard. Mitch can out spend all he wants but it won't drown out Grimes and so far the turtle's messaging has been handled rather incompetently. The PAC outside spending is usually handled even more incompetently. Look at all the electoral success the Kochs have had. Not much to show for an awful lot of money spent.

            Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king.... Dylan

            by bywaterbob on Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:44:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Grimes can win even if outspent (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bywaterbob, Shawn87

              But Grimes or her allies, or both, need to go negative and define Mitch in a way that he can't weasel out of.  And she needs to do it now.

              It won't be pretty, but the only way she wins is if McConnell is simply radioactive to pretty much everyone but 1% Kentuckians who own businesses and vote on taxes only. She needs to make him toxic to low-information, low-income whites, and either depress their turnout or get them to vote against him.  

              “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

              by ivorybill on Mon May 12, 2014 at 09:58:25 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  McConnell is not likeable..... (0+ / 0-)
          •  Quite right, I see it the same way. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ivorybill

            They only way this works is if it is relentlessly about Mitch and negative. Because Mitch will make this campaign about Obama, and that's where Grimes will lose.

          •  A good grass-roots campaign can beat that down. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ivorybill, Shawn87

            I've seen it.

  •  I'll take it (6+ / 0-)

    But I would feel a lot better if these numbers came from likely voters and not registered voters.

    Just another day in Oceania.

    by drshatterhand on Mon May 12, 2014 at 07:57:03 AM PDT

  •  I think AR-Sen goes to Lean D now (6+ / 0-)

    Pryor's numbers just keep getting better and better, and Cotton just doesn't seem to have an answer.  

    I get that the majority of the undecideds in a state like Arkansas will probably go republican, but if Pryor is already polling at 51, well...

    I still have Georgia as tilting R and Kentucky as tilting D, just because I think Nunn will have a hard time getting the undecideds to break her way, whereas Grimes will have an easier time with that since Kentuckians have a long history of ticket-splitting and McConnell is so unquestionably unpopular.  But that being said, there's a definite path to victory for Nunn.  What hurts her is that unless one candidate screws up on the campaign trail, that race is probably going to a runoff.

    26, OH-16, fiscal moderate, foreign policy liberal, social libertarian 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em Champion

    by StephenCLE on Mon May 12, 2014 at 07:57:23 AM PDT

  •  Unfortunately... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, ivorybill, HeyMikey

    ...in georgia and kentucky, neither democrat is polling above 45.

    For a southern state, it's just hard for me to believe that they can actually put together enough votes to actually get over the top.  Structurally, this is going to be very difficult.

    The upside for Grimes is that she has won a state-wide race in Kentucky before, so her staff has a pretty good idea where they need to collect those votes.

    For Nunn, however, it really is uphill.  Has she ever run for statewide office before?  Or any legislative office?  Does she have a known base of support apart from name recognition?  How many of those polled actually thought they were choosing her father instead of her?  Obviously, you can't expect her to be getting 50% at this point, but none of those numbers cited are really inspiring.

    •  Nunn is above 45% and winning every matchup (8+ / 0-)

      in the Atlanta Journal Constitution poll.

    •  Well, I can answer one of those questions (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ivorybill

      I doubt there are many confusing her for her father.

      Sam Nunn retired in 1997. For Georgia, that is light years ago in political terms. The state has really grown since then, without a lot of people moving into the state.

      Only the oldest voters probably know Sam Nunn very well, and I would figure most of them are voting Republican.

    •  Nate Silver has McConnell favored 75% to win (0+ / 0-)

      There was a really good article last month at fivethirtyeight.com on these discrepancies between polls and likely outcomes.

      Here it is...

      Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November

      Republican Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell is fighting for his political life — or is he? The Senate minority leader is nearly tied in the polls with Democratic opponent Alison Lundergan Grimes. But President Obama’s approval in Kentucky is in the low 30s, suggesting the Democratic brand is so unpopular that McConnell could be fine by the time votes are cast.
      Kentucky isn’t the only state with a disparity between what the polls are telling us and the state’s opinion of Democrats. Dems’ other possible Senate pickup opportunity, according to the polls, is in Georgia, a state that didn’t treat Obama kindly in 2012.
    •  Georgia wants Medicaid expansion, badly...... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HeyMikey, Shawn87

      Plus there is a governors race in that state......
      A guy named "Carter".....

      •  I wish I could agree... (0+ / 0-)

        With a Nunn and a Carter on the ballot, the Dems are making their strongest run here in GA that's possible this year. But...my subjective, non-scientific impression is that a large % of potential voters don't understand the Medicaid issue; and of those who understand, a large % oppose Medicaid expansion. The "47% are takers" view is widely held here, sad to say.

        "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

        by HeyMikey on Mon May 12, 2014 at 11:02:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You are mistaken.....Even the "Coverdell" (0+ / 0-)

          Republicans in Georgia want Medicaid expansion.....

          Lot's of old, white, moderate Republicans there...some of which used to be Democrats.....

          Can't speak for the "Zell Miller" Republicans....I guess they will vote for Broun or Handel anyway....

          They are tired of the crazies (except south of Macon)....now it's between the Christians and the moderates....

          •  not in Cobb County (0+ / 0-)

            NW Atlanta suburbs--of course this is a subjective, non-scientific impression--but the HeyMikey yard sign index says Paul "evolution-is-a-lie-from-the-pit-of-hell" Broun is the leader here. And Gingrey gets re-elected to his House seat by large margins every year, so Nunn will have a tough time in his district.

            Ironically, Zell Miller was a pretty good governor before he became a horrendous Senator.

            "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

            by HeyMikey on Mon May 12, 2014 at 12:54:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  It would be very helpful (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    orlbucfan, JJ In Illinois, HeyMikey

    to those of us who aren't familiar with all the candidate names if candidates were identified with (R) or (D) after their names. Without the identifier, lists aren't useful except for the most well-known names.

  •  McConnell leads Bevin 57-25 (0+ / 0-)

    It might not mean much for the general, but what do we think is a bad outcome for the primary for McConnell? Bevin getting 35%? 30? Or does it not matter at all?

  •  The Braun/Handel crowd won't vote for Perdue... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HeyMikey

    in Georgia....they will stay home or vote 3rd party....

  •  How good is Marist - NBC? (0+ / 0-)

    Anyone know how they performed in the 2012 elections? Hoping another Kossack can save me from another trivial internet search while I am supposed to be getting some work done. Other than PPP, 2012 proved that most polling firms were  technically incompetent, or so ideologically obsessed that they delusionally cooked the numbers believing in their own supposed wisdom.

    Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king.... Dylan

    by bywaterbob on Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:48:45 AM PDT

  •  Just read a very interesting read in my latest (6+ / 0-)

    Rollingstone about the state of the situation in Kentucky. It sounds like she definitely has a shot at beating the Turtle. Her polling on McConnell said there was a "visceral hatred" of the Turtle. Lets hope this stays the case. If she does win, she will be a Conserva-Dem for sure, but I can live with that. Its beyond Mitchs' time to go!

  •  looking at these #s (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Shawn87, METAL TREK

    I don't understand why (some) folks seem so sure of a red wave this Fall.

    I've got high hopes, especially with the disgusting conspiracy theory mongering from the House GOP right now - that stuff has to backfire. I think it has to be said over and over again; instead of raising minimum wage, instead of passing immigration reform - the Republicans are wasting time & money on their ridiculous fake scandals based on senseless conspiracy theories.

    •  Please try to remember (0+ / 0-)

      ChocolateChips....if you're optimistic, you're living in a "bubble of delusion" regardless of what polls say or don't say. Just remember..." Black thoughts are wise thoughts" Unfortunately, they don't accomplish anything...EVER. Snarkity, snark, snarknodo.

      "Because we are all connected...."

      by Shawn87 on Mon May 12, 2014 at 02:52:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  KY SEN (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson

    Normally with a state like KY one would have to clearly favor the Rep. inc.; however, the widespread discontent with the Rep. inc. changes the entire landscape: this is a very abnormal situation and will make a huge difference. This race will remain close...still toss-up/tilt R but that is likely to change when ALG ramps up her campaign...let's just hope it is a good campaign being ramped up.

  •  Media support for the Republicans (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raspberryberet

    The media is trying to get Democrats to stay at home and not vote. If you listen to, even some on MSNBC, you will notice that Chuck Todd is pushing a Republican Victory by talking about the negative polls for Democrats and positive polls for Republicans. Get the message out and talk about the benefits of the ACA and Democrats will go to the polls and win.
    If you can stand to watch the lap dogs on Morning Joe you will find the same thing. Joe tells a lie and everyone on the show is afraid to challenge this liar. Mika is nothing but a clown on the show. She sits there and smile and say lets move on but will not challenge the lies that Joe tells. However, Democrats have to overcome and go to the polls and vote.

  •  Dems don't do anything (0+ / 0-)

    to screw this up! This election is too important.

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