I consider myself at least moderately liberal. I am a Democrat; I am pro-choice, in favor of equal pay and equal rights for LGBT citizens (including the right to marry); I support the efforts of workers to organize for better wages and working conditions. I believe corporations have a responsibility to the societies that support them.
I am also a member of the National Rifle Association and I believe there are some things Democrats and liberals need to know. They probably aren’t things you’re going to want to know, but they’re important.
The most important of these is that even if Democrats keep the Senate and retake the House, passage of any new gun control laws is not likely.
First, a little history: In January 2009, when Barack Obama was inaugurated, a new Congress had already convened with Democratic majorities in both chambers. The new Administration was sure a renewal of the Assault Weapons Ban was a slam-dunk. Soon after the celebrations had ended, then-new Attorney General Eric Holder sent it to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.
It was dead on arrival. A group of 65 Democratic Representatives let Speaker Pelosi know there was no chance for passage. It was never even sent to the floor of the House for a vote.
Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader sent Holder a letter advising him to enforce laws already on the books.
In the wake of the tragedy at Sandy Hook, there was a brief spurt of public support for new gun control laws. Legislation was proposed to require universal background checks and to restrict the sale of certain types of firearms and magazines (they aren’t called “clips” which are something totally different).
A proposal to advance background check legislation failed to advance in the Senate when there weren’t enough votes. Sixty were needed and there were only 54: 45 Senators voted “no.” Majority Leader Reid cast a “no” vote to allow the legislation to be reintroduced at a later date.
There was a great hue and cry and calls to lobby those obstructionist Senators who voted against the measure so it could advance to full vote by the Senate. For some reason, a large number of people thought that would guarantee the proposals would become law.
These people needed a quick refresher course on the legislative process.
With Senate approval, the the ball would then have been passed to the House to come up with its own bill and the two proposals would be negotiated between the chambers to come up with a final bill to be approved and sent to the President for his signature.
The reality was, and is, that the proposals could have passed with a unanimous vote of the Senate. It would have gone to the House, been referred to a Subcommittee, and never heard from again.
It’s time to get real: The House of Representatives of the 113th Congress isn’t going to be passing anti-gun legislation and chances are good the 114th Congress won’t, either.
If we look at the current House of Representatives, there are 241 members rated “A+” or “A” by the NRA. If we lump everyone rated “B” through “F” together, the total is 175. Nineteen members are not rated.
The Democrats need 17 seats to take control of the House. If we give them those seats filled with members that support more gun control and assume all the low-rated members are re-elected, the new total comes to 192.
Even if all the 17 new Democratic seats knocked out A+ or A-rated Representatives, 224 remain.
Being generous, we can add 100% of the unrated House members to the pro-gun control ranks but it still doesn't yield a majority.
While the vast majority of those opposing more restrictive gun laws are Republican, 18 Democrats have also earned the NRA’s highest ratings.
The Brady Campaign rates just 206 members of the House, but 108 of them oppose gun control while 98 support it.
Looking at gun control support at the state level shows that opposition to new gun laws isn’t limited to the Washington politicians. The Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence grades each state on an A-F scale, based on the state’s laws as compared to what the Center considers ideal statutes. Making the assumption that the grade is a reasonable assessment of the voter attitude toward new gun regulations, we find 26 of the 50 states received an “F.” Another seven states received a “D,” which though not as bad in the Center’s eyes as an “F” still shows there’s likely little interest in new restrictions.
Between them, the “F” and “D” states elect 229 of the 435 members of the House of Representatives. That’s 52.6 percent.
Just 11 states, with a combined 137 Representatives, received grades of “B” or better.
Last, if there's still any doubt about the public mood outside of the Northeast, Illinois and California, look at laws passed following the tragedy at Sandy Hook.
While some states did toughen their gun laws, more states either passed or are considering laws that would allow teachers, school staff, or even citizens with permits to carry guns in school or keep loaded firearms in their vehicles when they are parked on school grounds.
There are plenty of good issues that Democrats can use to advance their cause in November. Gun control isn't one of them and it could hurt their chances in the heartland.