Do not take this the wrong way. I am not saying you should punch your 2016 ballot for Hillary today. I am not saying you can't keep hoping for a Warren run, or whoever you want to run. And I am not saying that when the time comes, we shouldn't look for other potential Primary challengers to push a more Liberal agenda.
But what I am saying is that at this point in time, the Democratic Party should be using Hillary's frontrunner status to its fullest advantage, now in 2014, to bolster every other election currently underway. But we can't do that if we're still divided on this front.
If you want Democrats to have a strong showing in 2014, you should support Hillary in 2016.
The condescending response to any 2016 discussions is that we should focus on 2014, and save the debate until after November, that any talk about 2016 takes away from our chances in 2014. However, this is shortsighted.
First of all, the ironclad rule about American politics is that the electorate cares more about the Presidential race than any other political race. I am not saying this is correct, or preferred, but it is simply a matter of fact. This should always be used to devise political strategy, not just in 2016, 2020, and 2024, but this fact should also be used to our advantage in 2014, and 2015, and 2017, etc.
Second of all, leaving this debate open (will she or won't she) wastes far more resources because as long as the debate is open, it will draw people into a fight. For instance, it leaves room for the mainstream media we love so much to sensationalize the debate as infighting and inter-party strife. And for the reason I mentioned in the paragraph above, the media would rather speculate about a Presidential election over two years away than discuss current downballot races where the candidates barely register in their consumers' consciousness. Basically, this interferes with the concept of using Hillary-as-frontrunner to its fullest potential. It is far better to take it as a given that Hillary will be the candidate in 2016, and save all the sniping and nitpicking for when it really matters.
Whether we like it or not, Hillary as the candidate is still a hot debate, here at Dailykos and elsewhere, and simply having this debate wastes valuable advantages by simply saying yes, she is the candidate.
So what are these advantages I keep talking about to rallying around Hillary right now?
1. Virtual Coat-tail effect.
Having a good candidate at the top of the ballot generally works in favor of the same party's candidates down the ballot. This is pretty general knowledge. However, in an off-year election, the top of the ticket for the voters is governor, US Senator, or US Rep. Surely, voters care about these offices, but in US politics, none of them would beat out the lure of President. But that's not an option in an off-year election.
By having Hillary as the de facto candidate, it provides the opportunity to use the prestige she is building up for 2016, as a virtual coat-tail in 2014. If it becomes common knowledge that she is the Democrats' candidate, she will likely draw voters out to support the Democratic Party, even though it is only 2014. And with Obama likely keeping away from certain elections this year, it makes Hillary a natural, perhaps better, stand-in.
Who is the Democrat running for the highest office that you can vote for this year?
Imagine they are hosting a rally that includes an appearance from Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Now imagine they are hosting a rally that includes an appearance from Future Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton.
Do you think there would be a difference in turnout? You tell me.
Obviously, this should theoretically be the case for whoever is treated as the de facto frontrunner, and there are other potential picks. But based on her credentials, her current name recognition, and current popularity, she is undoubtedly in the top tier.
2. It frees up resources.
First of all, the general rule in the American political system is that candidates want to avoid lengthy Primary battles. It uses up precious resources that can be saved for the General opponent, and forces the candidate to move closer to their base, where they risk taking a stance that makes them less electable to the more general voting bloc. Again, resources go towards reversing some of that damage
The sooner you have a frontrunner, the sooner that person can build their name-brand recognition, their warchest, and their credentials. And the sooner they can free up those resources to help other Democratic party members. And the more time and funds you have, the more resources you have at your disposal to devise strategy.
3. It builds a narrative.
Take Hillary out of the equation. Assume we are talking about the Republican Party, and they had a clear front runner at this point in time. Do you think they wouldn't use that person to their fullest potential?
They would absolutely use it to their advantage. They would have him hosting fundraisers every week. They would march the Limbaughs and O'Reillys out to trumpet his credentials. They would have their poll unskewers out speaking of his victory as if it were a foregone conclusion. They still so desperately want to find that front runner. And it all makes complete sense strategically.
Building a strong narrative for how 2016 will go can shape how 2014 ultimately goes. If we get people fired up about contributing to a Hillary Presidency, we can leverage that excitement to the races that are more close ahead. "You like the idea of President Hillary? Well, how about the idea of elevating her with a majority of the House and Senate already on her side?"
4. She is a lightning rod for Republican attacks.
Even now, with the perception of Hillary as being the frontrunner, we have seen how viciously the GOP have attacked her. Imagine how much more breathlessly they would attack her if it became even more obvious that she were the candidate. And let's face it, the underhanded attacks they are using against her are not going to sit well with a lot of Americans.
But then again, she doesn't have to worry about her own run for another two years.
Look at how much damage the Republican brand took in the wake of government shutdown. It hasn't even been a year yet, and already many voters have essentially forgotten their misdeeds. No matter how much the GOP throws at Hillary now, it's gonna be old news in politics-time by 2016.
Meanwhile, while the GOP spend all their airtime attacking Hillary, it leaves vulnerable Democrats free to attack rather than defend.
On the other hand, their attacks have already gotten to the point where they aren't even that effective anymore. One wonders if their attacks work at all anymore. All the more reason to goad them to continue. Keep wasting their airtime and funds. Keep giving us ammo to use against them in 2016.
Conclusion.
Like many of the people here purport to, I want to see more and better Democrats elected, in 2014, 2016, and beyond. But to do so, we must make effective use of all of our resources, and most importantly, of the political system we have been dealt. And given the current circumstances, if we want the best possible outcome for Democrats in 2014, a "Hillary is the candidate" approach is far more advantageous politically than a "well, we're still undecided" approach.
Again, I am not saying you should or should not vote for Hillary, come 2016.
But right now, if we want the best possible outcome in 2014, we should support the idea of her Presidency.
7:25 AM PT: Lest anyone think I am generally in support of Wall Street Democrats over more Liberal options, you can refer to my previous work in that regard.
However, if you are letting your biases come before the overall objective of putting more and better Democrats in office, which means winning elections, ask yourself how you are really helping the cause.