So, as you all might know, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA-07) just unexpectedly lost the Republican primary for re-nomination, by professor and tea-partier Dave Brat (R). Brat faces fellow professor Jack Trammell (D) in the general election, to be held November 4, 2014. (Curiously, both Brat and Trammell teach at Randolph-Macon College; Brat teaches economics and Trammell teaches sociology.) What might happen here? At this point, I've heard that Cantor can run as a write-in candidate, but cannot run as a ballot-listed candidate. VA-07's PVI is currently about R+10.
VA-07, 2014 (district info and map from Wikipedia)
PVI: R+10
Dem: Jack Trammell, professor
Repub: Dave Brat, professor
(potential write-in: Eric Cantor, incumbent representative?)
What are some comparable elections in recent memory that could give us possible clues (or just make things even more confusing)? Obviously, something like this doesn't happen everyday, so we'll be looking basically at elections where there was some sort of odd nomination mess-up or goliath-toppling other craziness in the primary, especially courtesy of the tea-party wing of the Republicans. I've summarized four of them (one concurrently ongoing) below the fold. If you have more information/analysis about these or other similar races, please post them in the comments.
NY-23 special election, 2009
PVI: I don't remember, but it was weakly R+ (R+3 or so?)
Dem: Bill Owens, attorney
Repub: Dede Scozzafava, state assemblywoman
Conservative: Doug Hoffman, accountant
Establishment R choice and moderate R Dede Scozzafava (a state assemblywoman), running in a swingy upstate New York district, was not defeated for nomination, but was basically shoved aside in favor of the Conservative Party nominee, an accountant named Doug Hoffman, who was strongly favored by (small-c) conservatives. Just days before the election, Scozzafava dropped out of the race, and endorsed attorney Bill Owens (D), who eventually won the race.
Result: 49% Owens, 46% Hoffman, 6% Scozzafava
AK-Sen, 2010
PVI: R+12
Dem: Scott McAdams, mayor of Sitka
Repub: Joe Miller, attorney
write-in: Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. senator
Incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski (R) lost her party's nomination to attorney Joe Miller, and subsequently ran a write-in campaign against Miller and Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (R). Murkowski (somewhat surprisingly) won the election, and her win is generally credited to an effective write-in campaign (teaching people spelling, no less!), having a reputation as a moderate, and having strong name rec (her father, Frank Murkowski, once served as governor, after all).
Result: Murkowski 39%, Miller 36%, McAdams 24%
MI-11, 2012 (district info and map from Wikipedia)
PVI: R+4 (see description for more info)
Dem: Syed Taj, physician (special election: Dave Curson, autoworker and union representative)
Repub: Kerry Bentivolio, autoworker/reindeer rancher/teacher/etc.
Incumbent R representative Thad McCotter failed to submit the required number of signatures to get onto the ballot, and chose not to run again. The only R candidate at the time was an autoworker, reindeer rancher, and teacher (and some other professions) Kerry Bentivolio, who faced physician Syed Taj (D). McCotter resigned in July 2012 and there was a concurrent special election in which autoworker and union representative Dave Curson (D) won the seat, defeating Bentivolio (R), for the "lame duck session" lasting from election day (in November 2012) until the end of what would have been McCotter's term in January 2013. While Curson won the special, Taj lost the general. I've heard that the special took place under the old district lines and the general took place under the new district lines; the old ones were more Dem-friendly than the new ones (but by how much I'm not sure).
Result (special election): Curson 48%, Bentivolio 46%
Result (general election): Bentivolio 51%, Taj 44%
MS-Sen, 2014 (ongoing)
PVI: R+9
Dem: Travis Childers, former representative
Repub: Thad Cochran, incumbent U.S. senator OR Chris McDaniel, state senator
Incumbent R senator Thad Cochran, who has served since 1978, is being challenged for the Republican nomination by state senator Chris McDaniel. Cochran's reportedly low-key campaign did not seem to serve him very well, and what sparse polling there was suggested that the tea-partier McDaniel was polling quite close to him. Mississippi requires a runoff election if neither candidate gets 50%, and thanks to a third candidate named Thomas Carey who pulled 1.5%, that's exactly what happened on June 3, 2014 -- McDaniel and Cochran both pulled about 49% each, with McDaniel getting a hair more. This race will be going to a runoff on June 24 (with absentee ballots having an instant-runoff feature so they don't require a second ballot to be mailed, as I've heard).
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Fun find of the day: The Guardian, June 4, 2014: "Tea Party scores biggest win of 2014 as Mississippi primary heads to runoff". Little did they know...