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American women are too smart for GOP tokenism.
The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll isn't good news for President Barack Obama. On the other hand, he's not running for re-election. On the other hand, Republicans are, and the data is brutal.
Hillary Clinton: 44 positive, 37 negative, +7
Democratic Party: 38 positive , 40 negative, -2
Barack Obama: 41 positive, 45 negative, -4
Republican Party: 29 positive, 45 negative, -16
Tea Party: 22 positive, 41 negative, -19

Republicans might have a better chance of taking advantage of Obama's weak numbers if, you know, their own numbers weren't in the gutter. And we don't need to throw Republicans any anvils as long as the tea party is doing it for us. Meanwhile, women hold the keys to November.
Republicans are in worse shape now than they were four years ago, too [...] Views of the Tea Party are even worse, with 22% seeing it in a favorable light and 41% in a negative one. In June 2010, the Tea Party’s fav/unfav was at a positive 34%-31%. That perhaps helps explain why Democrats in our current NBC/WSJ poll have a two-point advantage on congressional preference, 45%-43%, despite the brutal numbers for Obama. And then there’s this BIG difference: At this point in 2010, Democrats had a narrow congressional-preference lead with women (44%-43%), and the GOP had a significant advantage with white women (51%-36%). Now? Democrats hold a double-digit with all women (50%-38%), and white women are pretty much a jump ball (GOP 45%, Dems 44%). As we’ve said before, female voters -- and female candidates -- are likely to decide the outcome of the midterm elections and specifically control of the U.S. Senate.
For the math lazy among us, that's an 11-point gain among all women, and a 14-point gain among white women. More evidence of the power of the woman vote this year?
Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley leads Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst 44 percent to 40 percent in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, a poll released this morning by Quinnipiac University shows [...]

Women back Braley 47 percent to 36 percent, while men back Ernst 44 percent to 40 percent.

GOP tokenism doesn't work. I like to say, "If the Democratic base turns out, we win." We may be able to simplify that further: "If women turn out, we win."

Originally posted to kos on Wed Jun 18, 2014 at 12:03 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos Elections and Daily Kos.

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