I just ran across this at The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. It shook me up, for sure.
ISIS: The unsurprising surprise that is sweeping Iraq by Charles P. Blair
Iraqi security forces have “crumbled in disarray” before the successor group to Al Qaeda in Iraq, ISIS, or the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. Despite taking on three foes—the Syrian government, the Iraqi government, and several Sunni rebel forces—ISIS now seems virtually unstoppable. Only Shiite militias appear capable of blunting the ISIS drive south. The group's seizure of Mosul last week—and advance toward Baghdad—triggered dismay around the globe. Many observers, including some at high governmental levels, are simply asking, “What the hell is this ISIS thing?”
You all need to go over there and read the whole thing.
Much of the global “surprise” surrounding ISIS’ perceived sudden appearance in Iraq has to do with ignorance of, or at least a lack of clarity about, the group's origins, which date back well over a decade.
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ISIS quickly established zones of control in eastern and northern Syria, including key border areas used for transport. In doing so, an on-the-ground observer noted last December, “ISIS has changed the course of the Syrian war. It has forced the mainstream Syrian opposition to fight on two fronts. It has obstructed aid getting into Syria, and news getting out.” ISIS made its new presence felt on the battlefield with its role in the critical battle for control of Menagh airbase near Aleppo. The 10-month siege of the airbase ended with victory over Assad’s forces in early August 2013, when ISIS fighters—led by northern sector commander Umar al-Shishani—were able to achieve what other opposition forces could not. With two Chechen suicide attackers initiating the first strike, ISIS successfully took the airbase and from that point forward established itself as one of leading opposition forces in Syria.
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On February 2, 2014 Al Qaeda disaffiliated itself from ISIS.
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Al Qaeda in Iraq was able to take advantage of Maliki’s despair-inducing “Shia triumphalism” and to attract dissatisfied Sunnis to their cause.
Now led by a new emir, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State of Iraq sought to escalate strains among Iraqi sectarian groups and ethnic minorities and undermine the government’s ability to maintain security through a new wave of violence.
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Arrested in 2006, like Zarqawi, Baghdadi reportedly was fully radicalized while in prison. Released in the late 2000s, Baghdadi joined the Islamic State of Iraq, swiftly climbing the ranks. While little else is publicly known about Baghdadi, there is little doubt that he is a committed and utterly ruthless strategist who considers himself the supreme jihadist leader of this century.
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ISIS is composed of 16 vilayets (or provinces); nine in Syria and seven in Iraq. (The group is also reportedly active in Gaza and Beirut.) ISIS likely has 3,000 to 5,000 fighters in Syria and up to 6,000 fighters in Iraq, and, according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a large number of ISIS personnel are foreign-born.
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By the fall of 2013 it was clear that ISIS was the most powerful single military rebel force in the region. Tactical successes were driven by its capacity to plan and execute highly complex operations and to successfully utilize social media to recruit suicide bombers and other fanatics. But a primary reason for ISIS's strategic success is financial. Although estimates of its income vary greatly, the group's seizure of Syrian oil and gas fields is estimated to yield it some $2 million per day—and possibly far more.
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Indeed, ISIS’ military commander in Iraq was trained by the United States. Umar al-Shishani—an ethnic Chechen from the “Kist” sub-group who grew up in Georgia and later served in its US-funded Army—is commander of ISIS’ northern sector, which is now leading ISIS forces in northern Iraq.
Some of you will respond this is not a diary. Well, this is not my field and although I could do much more with this material, I wanted everyone to see it.
This is a heads up diary. I guess we are going to be hearing/reading ISIS for the conceivable future.
Once again, we have trained the guy who is out there brutalizing innocents wherever he can.
Maybe this is exaggerated in order to continue to attract support for the war on terror.
Personally, I feel for the women and the children who have less than no power.
Please edit my tags.