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9:27 AM PT: NE-Gov: In a rare foray into the political world, legendary investor Warren Buffett has endorsed Democrat Chuck Hassebrook in his bid to become Nebraska's next governor and also donated $100,000 to the cause. Buffett, known as the "Wizard of Omaha," is the second-richest person in the country, but he's long supported more progressive tax rates, even proposing a tax-hike plan on the ultra-wealthy that came to be called the "Buffett Rule." (Buffett also backed Barack Obama for president.) Hassebrook faces wealthy Republican businessman Pete Ricketts in November.

10:17 AM PT: NJ-Gov: As Jeff Smith predicted long ago, Chris Christie's legal troubles were only going to grow once prosecutors started digging their claws into Bridgegate, and indeed, they've managed to unearth a second bridge-related scandal. A new report in the New York Times says that Christie's administration pushed the Port Authority to impermissibly redirect money from a trans-Hudson rail tunnel project he obnoxiously cancelled back in 2010 and toward repairing a causeway that connects Jersey City and Newark called the Pulaski Skyway.

The authority said it had no legal right to do so, but they caved after endless Christie badgering that relied on laugh-out-loud justifications. (They called it the "Lincoln Tunnel Access Infrastructure Improvements" project. Uh, no.) Now investigators at the Manhattan district attorney's office and the SEC may bring civil and criminal charges against those involved, for misleading Port Authority bondholders. There's no word on how high this goes, but as Smith says, if Christie aides want to avoid jail time for this or any other wrongdoing, they're going to have a serious incentive to point a finger upward.

10:33 AM PT: FL-Gov: WFLA-TV sure seems to love paying for polls, because they've just released their fourth set of numbers from SurveyUSA in the last two months. The changes from poll to poll have mostly been noise, with Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist trading places every time. Now it's Scott's turn to nose back out front, with a 42-41 edge, compared to a 44-40 Crist lead in early June.

Meanwhile, the Florida Chamber of Commerce (which of course favors Scott) also has a poll of their own, from Cherry Communications. Scott holds a 41-38 advantage, while Libertarian Adrian Wylie takes 4 percent, which is somewhat low compared to the outsize vote shares a lot of Libertarian candidates have been pulling down lately.

1:20 PM PT: AZ-Gov: Citing poor fundraising, state Sen. Al Melvin has dropped out of Arizona's Republican gubernatorial primary. That leaves six others still vying for the nod: state Treasurer Doug Ducey, former Go Daddy executive Christine Jones, former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, Secretary of State Ken Bennett, former Rep. Frank Riggs (who represented a seat in California), and former Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas. Former Arizona Board of Regents member Fred DuVal is the lone Democrat running. The primary is Aug. 26.

1:22 PM PT (David Jarman): FL-Gov: Here's one of the challenges that Scott faces in maintaining his lead, though (and, if the trend continues, that future Florida Republicans will face even more). Pew Research takes a look at voter registration among Cuban-Americans, and finds it's moving remarkably quickly in the Democrats' direction thanks to generational change. In 2002, Cubans split 64 percent R/22 percent D in their registration; that changed to 57 R/35 D in 2006 and now just 47 R/44 D in 2013. Those numbers appear to refer to all Cuban-Americans nationwide, but seven of ten Cuban-Americans are in Florida. (If you want to see how that translates to actual votes, recall that Al Gore got 53% in Miami-Dade County in 2000, while Barack Obama got 62% in that same county in 2012.)

1:49 PM PT: MI-04: Retiring Rep. Dave Camp has endorsed state Sen. John Moolenaar as his preferred choice to succeed him in Congress. Moolenaar already had the establishment mantle, but he faces two businessmen in the Aug. 5 GOP primary, Paul Mitchell and Peter Konetchy. Camp decided to quit not that long ago, so no one's yet filed fundraising reports, and there hasn't been any polling. However, whoever wins the Republican nomination will be the heavy favorite in the general election in this red district.

2:36 PM PT (Darth Jeff): Ads:

AR-Sen: Crossroads spends another $414,000 tying Sen. Mark Pryor as closely to Obama as possible.

IA-Sen: The League of Conservation voters portrays Republican Joni Ernst as Sarah Palin 2.0. The spot is part of a $1 million buy in the state.

MN-Sen: Sen. Al Frankin promotes his work fighting Wall Street corruption.  

NH-Sen: In a new Jeanne Shaheen ad, a constituent describes how the senator helped her after her home was foreclosed. There's a shorter version that is also airing.

NM-Gov: The RGA has a Spanish language ad hitting Democratic nominee Gary King.


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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 06:00:18 AM PDT

  •  Centre county Voter Reg update (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

    Two weeks into Stein's voter registration project here and it has been very beneficial, for the Republicans actually.

    Before the election and the drive Democrats had a 2244 voter edge lead.  Now it is down to 2194 since the start of the drive two weeks ago.

    And this week Democrats lost 20 voters while Republicans needed a gain of 23.  Centre GOP could be pushing this below 2000 by the end of the summer.  Although students will play a role later in the year, this is undoubtedly a bigger swing than usual.

    •  Centre County is a tilt R county (8+ / 0-)

      Again, the GOP held a clear registration edge until 2008, when the pro-Obama forces ran a huge student registration drive in the spring that flipped it blue.

      The Ds only do well when the student turnout is high.

    •  I think Wolf can break 60% there regardless (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541, MichaelNY

      This is where the education cuts and the Penn State scandal will have the biggest factor.

      •  Education cuts will mean nothing here (0+ / 0-)

        It is all the scandal.

        •  Well they mean something everywhere (5+ / 0-)

          Sure Sandusky is the main topic but there's nowhere in PA that the cuts "will mean nothing".

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 08:46:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Those against Corbett for the cuts (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BoswellSupporter

            Were most likely already against him for the scandal.  When Kane stayed that Cornett was basically cleared these people started shifting to other reasons to dislike Corbett.  It is just a way for these people that are heavily influenced by PSU to shift from one issue they have with Corbett to another.

            •  But they were never for the cuts (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42, MichaelNY

              Hence they always mattered, but were over-shadowed.  

              In sports, I dislike Aaron Hernandez for being a murderer, but if he's somehow exonerated I'll still hate him because he plays for the Patriots.  One attribute just overshadows the other one, but my feelings still exist on both.

              It's also not like that report was a beacon of hope for Corbett, it pointed out nothing was done with political motivations, but the mis-steps the report pointed out were pretty numerous.  Right or wrong, people aren't really all that concerned with corruption vs. incompetence when the underlying crime is so deplorable.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 09:02:21 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Therefore the cuts (0+ / 0-)

                Still really do not matter here right?  Because voters in this county are still going off the scandal.  That's what I have seen here in all regions, most voters don't even reach for issues that Corbett has done as governor.  If they do it is actually natural gas drilling.

                •  I think we're saying the same thing (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

                  Its definitely:

                  Scandal
                  Fracking
                  Economy
                  Education

                  In that order.

                  I just think we gloss over far too much that education cuts don't matter.  It's like saying the economy doesn't matter, that voter ID doesn't matter, etc.  

                  If the PA economy were booming, it would matter, right?  Corbett would be in better position if something about him didn't suck.  

                  They all matter to obviously very different degrees...but I still hate Aaron hernandez for being on the Patriots :-)?

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 09:34:35 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  What's the source of your numbers? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, Amber6541

      I downloaded the currentvotestats.xlsx file from the state's elections page and I see that as of June 23, 2014 the Dems had 43,897, GOP had 41,617 for a Dem advantage of 2,280.  That's higher than either of the figures (2244 or 2194) you listed.

      Also, I see that new voter apps in June were:
      (Week of):
      June 2: 0 for either party
      June 9: 36 (D), 19 (R)
      June 16: 44 (D), 36 (R)
      June 23: 19 (D), 17 (R)

      Party change apps in June are:
      (Week of):
      June 2: 0 for both parties
      June 9: 10 (D), 9 (R)
      June 16: 25 (D), 23 (R)
      June 23: 8 (D), 9 (R)

      So Dems are leading on new voter apps in June, party change apps are about even in June so nothing favorable to the GOP there.

      It sounds like the only thing that could be causing a net gain for the GOP (which I kind of dispute since I can't see where your numbers are from) would be more Democrats moving away than Republicans, which wouldn't exactly be astounding given the recent graduating class is probably more Democratic than Republican given the 2008 vote.  

      And we know all to well the huge Dem advantage in new voter app registration that begins in August-October of even numbered years in Centre...Dems even had new voter registration gains vs GOP leading up to 2010 elections.

      We're basically looking at a net of Dem gains between now and time we get to November, aren't we?

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 09:29:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I use the Centre County BoE (0+ / 0-)

        nt

        •  That's weird (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PSUCentrePA

          They really should be in sync, and yet it appears they never are.  But the areas they are in sync seem to be new voter registration and party change, as those numbers can be backed into using the data on the county site.

          What must be different is voters coming of the rolls, which seems very odd I'd guess that would be people changing registrations to another county, which one would think would hit both websites simultaneously since it's not specific anythign mailed directly to the Centre County office.

          Oh well :-)

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:58:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I think it will be even or slight GOP (0+ / 0-)

        Because I use the Centre GOP numbers, not the state.  Because it is the Centre GOP that processes most of the registration within the county.  It continues to find the GOP numbers outpacing the Democrats.  As I stated before, by around September or so that should change.  The summer time is when the GOP usually does okay at voter registration, but they usually only gain about 100 voters in the end of it all.  So far they have already come into Summer gaining 77, within two weeks.

  •  Great article on the growing power (11+ / 0-)

    and influence of Massachusetts State Senator Linda Dorcena Forry, in Boston.

    http://www.bostonmagazine.com/...

    •  The changes in Boston are a good thing (7+ / 0-)

      For a long time, the Irish-American machine in Boston has been the bedrock of socially conservative Democratic politics in the state. It's similar to the ailment afflicting the Rhode Island Democratic Party: the Republican Party is generally irrelevant, so there is absolutely nothing to push Democrats leftward, and so the conservative machine maintains its hold. Note that Linda Dorcena Forry was first elected to the state legislature in 2004 to a seat resigned by Tom Finneran, a conservative Democrat who had been speaker for nearly a decade and resigned due to ethics issues. It's good to see the machine losing control.

      •  Forry seems to reflect the greater power (0+ / 0-)

        shift happening in Boston, but she's also seemingly strong in her own right. The article demonstrates her political blend of old and new Boston. I wonder what she'll do with her political power. If Lynch retired, would she be able to win a Congressional primary?

        •  I doubt it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          MA-08 is very heavily white and very heavily Irish; to an extent, it's bleached in order to make MA-07 majority-minority. I don't have access to DRA right now, but I bet Dorcena Forry's senate district is at least 30% black. Most of MA-08 is heavily white suburban towns; the minority-heavy town of Randolph is excised to MA-07, Brockton has abysmal turnout and no machine or base of political power,  and Quincy's minorities are mostly Asians and its voter base is mostly white. Further, MA-08 also includes the other major white area in Boston, the southwest neighborhoods that were Thomas Menino's base.

        •  I would love to see her in Congress (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GoUBears, MichaelNY

          That was a fascinating article to read.

      •  the thing about Boston is that one can visit the (0+ / 0-)

        city without seeing the old ethnic areas. Like the South End (not to be confused with South Boston), the area around the city library, the downtown district, Harvard etc are all very SWPL/hipster.

        It's sort of like going to a resort in Mexico. When I was a kid I thought that everyone in Mexico could speak both Spanish and English based on my experience in the Yucatan, when in fact the resort/tourist areas are oftentimes not typical of an area.

        idiosyncratic, slightly anarchist, darwinist, moral relativist, fan of satire

        by bonzo925 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 09:50:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you can say that about any big city (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          I've lived in or near Boston for about 13 years and have only been to the southern half of the city a few times. A similar principle probably applies in general.

          •  This is true (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, anshmishra, MichaelNY

            I've lived in Austin for three years and have visited South Austin precisely twice. And we're a dinky town compared to a city like Boston.

            •  Austin is bigger than Boston (0+ / 0-)

              Just saying...

              (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

              by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:28:14 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  city proper, yes (0+ / 0-)

                look at the greater MSA and Boston is probably double the size of Austin

                idiosyncratic, slightly anarchist, darwinist, moral relativist, fan of satire

                by bonzo925 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:34:05 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Boston metro area (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

                  is 2.5 times larger than than Austin's, and if you make it the statistical area, it's 4.5 times larger. Also, Austin's city limits are much more sensible. Boston's is just as bad as it's street layout.

                  ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -4.75, -2.10

                  by GoUBears on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:40:43 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  metro area IS the statistical area (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    GoUBears

                    just fyi, they are they same concept... so I don't know where you're getting the divergent 2.5 and 4.5 bigger metrics.

                    The MSAs (metropolitan statistical area) are 4.7 million people (2013) versus 1.9 million (2013), which is 2.5 times bigger.

                    The Boston CSA (combined statistical area), which includes the Providence, Manchester, Worcester, Concord, and Barnstable metropolitan areas as well as the Laconia micropolitan statistical area, is 8 million. There is no direct equivalent for Austin, because Austin does not have a combined statistical area delineation. This type of statistical area is not comparable to a metropolitan statistical area given the divergent metrics used to classify them.

                    24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 11:42:28 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Statistical area, used alone, is shorthand for CSA (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      gigantomachyusa

                      Boston's CSA is more of an equivalent to Austin's MSA than its own MSA is, given the sprawling area that Austin's takes in. It's just that non-coastal cities are usually islands, which makes something of a Granny Smith-Red Delicious comparison. My 4.5 came from 8 mill/1.8 mill, but Austin is more like 1.9 mill, so 4.25.

                      ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -4.75, -2.10

                      by GoUBears on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:30:07 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Unequivocally no (0+ / 0-)

                        I think you completely and fundamentally misunderstand how this works.

                        Every single time this topic has come up over the last several years, there has invariably been one or two users who simply do not understand the census bureau's classifications, the way that they are properly compared, and the way in which they are delineated and despite links, explanations, and summarizations by many knowledgeable users in this area refuse to come around.

                        Simply put, because they are defined using completely different criteria thresholds, metropolitan statistical areas and combined statistical areas (note that they both use the term "statistical area" -- one does not have any more claim to the generic "statistical area" than the other) are never analogous and simply saying they are does not make it so and will never make it so.

                        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:40:17 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I don't understand the need for such a negative (4+ / 0-)

                          tone. Particularly over a purely technical issue.

                          It's not productive to start fights over such matters when a dispassionate discussion could communicate the same thoughts.  

                          28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                          by okiedem on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:47:39 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  And FWIW (0+ / 0-)

                          Metropolitan areas should never be used to determine general density, as the denominator (area) never changed given that they are delineated along county lines -- thus, density can do nothing but go up so long as county inclusion never changes.

                          Thus, saying that one area is more "sprawling" than the other based on metropolitan statistical area classifications and then arguing that comparing a combined statistical area should be compared to a metropolitan statistical area is providing a spurious solution to a well recognized problem.

                          Rather, when understanding density (which is central to any claim of "sprawling-ness") there are three solutions:

                          1) Consider either the "weighted population density" of a metropolitan area. This solves the denominator problem by weighting by relative size each census block based on population rather than counting them all equally and then comparing the distance away from the central business district. Thus, you capture the real "lived" density of the average area citizen.

                          2) Use the standard density equation for an Urban Area (which is a wholly different classification based solely on census blocks, rather than counties and their commuter patterns, such as is the case with all core based statistical areas). Note that in this area, Austin is substantially more dense than Boston, completely undermining your assertion that Austin "sprawls" more (2,231.7 ppsm for Boston versus 2,604.8 ppsm for Austin as of the 2010 census). The reason this is a solution to the above problem is that the area denominator is not stable: it changes based on the residential and commercial density of each census block. Counties do not rapidly change their commuter habits, thus do not get added or subtracted to the core based statistical areas quickly nor do county lines themselves often change.

                          3) A theorized combined measure for weighted population density of an Urban Area rather than the core based statistical area. The benefit of this is that you're both getting a changeable denominator and capturing the real lived experience of the average citizen. To my knowledge, no scholar has attempted to compile the data necessary to calculate this statistic.

                          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:52:55 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Your point about Austin being less sprawly than (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            BeloitDem, GoUBears

                            Boston is pretty hard to believe. The three primary Boston suburb counties (Norfolk, Middlesex, and Essex) all have population densities that are at least 50% greater than Travis County and at least five times greater than Williamson county. Moreover, Suffolk county is more than 10 times as dense as Travis county and more than four times as dense as the city of Austin itself.

                            I suppose Austin could be of greater density if you compare the density of the just the City of Austin itself (excluding all suburbs even those in Travis county the density of the City of Austin is 2,828 per square mile) to that the entire Boston metropolitan area, but that's not a very helpful comparison.

                            28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                            by okiedem on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:13:35 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Well (0+ / 0-)

                            Here's the thing: Urban Areas are not delineated along county lines. Instead, they are entirely reliant upon census blocks being assembled based on residential and commercial density. Thus, looking at the density of a county (which are the building blocks of core based statistical areas) compared to the density of [insert city here] isn't going to get you anywhere when trying to understand the relative densities of a broader area.

                            Thus, when building an Urban Area - an entirely different classification to metropolitan statistical area - it is important to understand that vast amounts of all the constituent counties of the Austin MSA are excluded from the urban area, so ofcourse the density of the urban area is much higher than its constituent counties. This is partially because Austin is located in a mountainous region, and thus has limited developable land to its west.

                            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:25:04 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Fair enough but even at a more granlar level that (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            jncca, GoUBears

                            doesn't hold up. The entire Austin metropolitan are only has three census blocks with a population density of greater than 15,000 people per square mile (all three are adjacent to UT). In contrast almost all the census blocks in the city of Boston and all of its inner suburbs exceed this level of population density. The outer suburban census blocks of Boston (particularly those on a rail line) are also quite commonly above several thousand people per square mile while they rarely exceed 1500/mile in Austin.

                            The Boston urban area does appear to include an uncommonly large number of distant low density suburbs as compared to other urban areas. According to the census the Boston "urban area" is larger in land area than the "urban area" of either Dallas or Houston. My suspicion is that this is because the exurban areas of Boston are of higher density than the exurban areas of cities in the sunbelt and are therefore included in the definition of the urban area of Boston but are excluded from the definition of the urban area of sunbelt cities.

                            http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                            All of this speaks to a larger issue which is that it is sometimes not helpful to take census definitions at face value. For instance, according to the census, Los Angeles is a denser urban area than is New York. This is literally true (because the sprawl of LA is limited by the geography of the area). However, the claim should not be taken at face value because it is true due to the fact that LA's low density suburbs have a higher density than New York's low density suburbs. In contrast, the city of New York and it's immediate suburbs have a population equal or greater to that of Los Angeles county at a density that is much, much greater than that of the city of Los Angeles and it's immediate suburbs.

                            In this way, while the statistic may be literally true, it paints a misleading picture. While New York may have many more low density suburbs, these areas have a small fraction of the metropolitan area's population and the vast majority of New York area residents live in census blocks that are much greater density than that of the vast majority of Los Angeles area residents.

                            http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/...

                            28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                            by okiedem on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:48:42 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Refer to my comment above (or below) (0+ / 0-)

                            about weighted population density, which is the metric that I prefer. This solves the exact problem that you document here.

                            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 03:59:10 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  COMPARE LIKE WITH LIKE (0+ / 0-)

                            if you want to compare density, you should compare the same area under a zoom level (zoom level 11 perhaps) under Dave's Redistricting App and sees which has more people living in it.

                            idiosyncratic, slightly anarchist, darwinist, moral relativist, fan of satire

                            by bonzo925 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:51:33 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Not necessarily valid. (0+ / 0-)

                            Since some cities are bigger than others.

                          •  don't use all caps (0+ / 0-)

                            We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                            by James Allen on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 03:49:20 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Believe that if you want. (0+ / 0-)

                          But the Bay Area-San Diego, Boston-DC and Florida coast areas are a different type of urbanity than the rest of the country has. Their cities' interconnectedness dwarfs those of any other region of the country.

                          As for the confusion on 'statistical area', it may be regional lingo. I've had three professors refer to the Boston CSA as "The Statistical Area" and other CSAs simply as 'statistical areas'. As it was generally obvious that they were referring to CSAs, I believed it was so for my comment above. And given that one drew the GOP's hopeless legislative gerrymander in Maine, another has been Vermont's main redistricting legal advisor for thirty years and the other was one of the NY Assembly's key advisors on VRA compliance, I'm hardly dismissive of what they have to say.

                          ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -4.75, -2.10

                          by GoUBears on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 09:35:59 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

              •  Southern cities include lots of places (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                GoUBears, MichaelNY

                that in the north would be separate suburbs.  So it's just comparing apples and oranges.

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:35:15 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  City limits (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                GoUBears

                Are an arbitrary measure of size and we should all know better than to use them.

                24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 11:43:01 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  This is a bizarre comment (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  seeing as there's no good alternative to using city limits. Using metropolitan areas puts us at the mercy of definitions that can be wildly diverging at different sources (as we have seen from the discussion above), and can frequently make no sense. Whereas you can't argue about where city limits are (at least not in the U.S.).

                  (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                  by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:39:16 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Why is it bizarre? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    We can disagree over what constitutes a proper area (Census-defined combined statistical areas? Urban areas? Metro areas?), but at least those have actual rules beyond "it was drawn this way in 1793."

                    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                    by jncca on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:50:24 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Simply no (0+ / 0-)

                    This is false:

                    definitions that can be wildly diverging at different sources
                    There is a single current set of definitions for the entire United States, that is used throughout the country, and applied equally and in the same manner regardless of region by the United States Census Bureau that has been narrowly tailored to be as accurate as possible.

                    They are not divergent at different sources, because there is only one source. That source is the United States Office of Management and Budget's Census Bureau, and they are the sole and single completely currently authoritative source.

                    24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:55:48 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Has anyone ever told you (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Woody, MichaelNY

                      that you can sound incredibly patronizing sometimes?

                      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

                      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:04:04 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  To quote someone from yesterday.. (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, anshmishra

                        fwends?! :D

                        ^ this should become a meme when we start getting snippy with each other

                        •  Yes please! (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          okiedem, lordpet8, MichaelNY, gabjoh

                          I am so tired of the senseless bickering and not particularly kind approach some of us are taking with each other. It's over minutia and should seriously stop. We are all adults and sharing our passion together on this site. Shouldn't we all be happy about that?!

                          28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Political nut and liberal to the core.

                          by IndyLiberal on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:54:48 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  Sure (0+ / 0-)

                        I can sound incredibly patronizing sometimes, especially on the particular things which I have devoted my life, passion, and work to studying.

                        I will say, though, that I find some small things about the criteria that the census bureau uses problematic and wish they would be changed, but that doesn't undermine the fact that the census bureau's definitions are the sole definition in use and thus carry with them the full weight of the government and its budgetary, legal, and symbolic largesse. Sure, many people find issue with the definitions, but they work within the system to tailor them to be better rather than set up inconsequential alternatives which do not matter practically (note that there are currently no alternatives, let alone any of consequence, in use in this country).

                        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:13:58 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

  •  not sure if anyone mentioned it yesterday (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, ChadmanFL

    but cochran's new ad seems to be going for the jugular.  This seems too little too late though, ads like this need a few days to sink in and probably would have been better for the first election, not the runoff.  Is cochran's campaign unskilled or just trying to sabotage mcdaniel in the general?  (I already assume they're desperate).

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 07:02:51 AM PDT

  •  Rick Scott link went to James Lankford video. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, lordpet8

    I've seen Rick Scott's college tuition commercials.  They seem a little weak.  Plus they run at the oddest times, not when you would think college age students would be watching.

  •  States with primary elections today: (0+ / 0-)

    I'm listing this as a handy reminder for myself really...

    Colorado - Gov GOP: Tancredo, Beauprez, Kopp, Gessler

    Maryland - Gov: Mizeur, Gansler, Brown

    New York - 11th: Michael Grimm
                    - 13th: Rangel
                    - 22nd: Hanna vs Tenney

    Oklahoma - Sen: Lankford (Baptist min), Shannon (tp), Brogdon, Crow
                       Sen: Inhofe,
                       Gov: Mary Fallin
                       winners needs 50% to avoid runoff

    Utah - 7 state races, Congressional candidates chosen at conventions

    Mississippi - runoff (Sen) Cochran vs McDaniel

    S Carolina - runoff (Lt Gov): McMaster vs Campbell

    Please note that lamps in the MAGIC LAMP EMPORIUM are on a genie time-share program so there may be a slight delay in wish fulfillment. (◕‿◕)

    by Mopshell on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 07:25:29 AM PDT

  •  NE-Gov: Warren Buffett gives $100,000 (12+ / 0-)

    to Chuck Hassebrook.  

    http://www.chuckhassebrook.com/...

    I noticed the conservatives on twitter blew up with tweets like "Pete Ricketts received the Farm Bureau endorsement yesterday while Hassebrook gets bought by a liberal billionaire"

    I think its funny how defensive they're getting over it.  Of course the Farm Bureau endorsement is meaningless since it's an insane right-wing org that's more interested in conservative politics than actual ag issues.  And attacking Warren Buffett, one of the most popular people in the state, as a billionaire?  Nebraska loves Warren Buffett; and given his history, Nebraska doesn't love Pete Ricketts.

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 07:56:01 AM PDT

    •  maybe the farm bureau there (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145, MichaelNY

      I met a man here who was the head of the local farm bureau and former head of the county Dem Party.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 08:01:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Farm Bureaus do vary, I guess. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The one in MO did un-endorse Akin after his rape pregnancy comments, but stayed neutral instead of endorsing McCaskill.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 12:09:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  In a less partisan environment (8+ / 0-)

      I think Ricketts, who has proven to be a terrible candidate, would be very possibly be headed to defeat this year.  But due to the polarization of this country, I don't think there are enough Republicans in a midterm election in Nebraska who would vote for a Dem, even for Governor.  

      This race has shades of 2002 Wyoming Gov (when the D came from behind to beat a weak R in a strongly R state), but the country was less polarized on partisan grounds back then.

       

      •  bad candidates (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Mopshell

        So, Ricketts is a hack, and Sasse is a tea party nut.  

        Maybe they'll both give the GOP brand such a bad rep that the Dem candidates can edge them out.

        •  Sasse isn't a nut. (6+ / 0-)

          I can't remember him ever saying anything controversial.  He's just hard right.  Similar to Mike Lee.  Inoffensive but highly conservative.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:36:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  He could still do it. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        USA629, Mopshell

        Dems have a shot in KS to the south, for example, and that state is even more conservative.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 12:09:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is Kansas more conservative? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, James Allen, MichaelNY

          Not to split hairs, but Kansas and Nebraska are almost exactly equal, if you look at just presidential numbers:

          2008:
          Kansas: 42% Obama
          Nebraska: 42% Obama

          2012:
          Kansas: 38% Obama
          Nebraska: 38% Obama

          Looking at McCain's and Romney's numbers, Nebraska is actually a tad more conservative:

          2008:
          Kansas: 56% McCain
          Nebraska: 57% McCain

          2012:
          Kansas: 60% Romney
          Nebraska: 61% Romney

          Nebraska did have a Democratic Senator not long ago (not that anyone wants to be reminded of Ben Nelson), but Kansas elected Kathleen Sebelius twice and had a couple Dem representatives within the past decade, unlike Nebraska.  The moderates in the Kansas GOP actually controlled the state legislature with a coalition of Democrats for a few years, until the hardliners drove every last one of them out.

          They seem almost exactly equivalent to me, with a slight edge to Nebraska (again, just looking at recent races, not necessarily culture or local issues).

          •  Kansas always felt more conservative (0+ / 0-)

            Just for the fact that Democrats have been shut out from senate races for so long. Even in Dem wave years the GOP managed to hang on in Kansas. You have to go all the way back to the 1930's to find a Dem senator.

            Nebraska on the other hand has proved to be much more willing to split tickets and vote for Dems. Democratic Senator James Exon still managed to win reelection in 1984 despite Reagan winning the state by an astonishing 70%. Nebraskans seemed to have no problem sending not one but two Democrats to the senate from mid 70's through the mid 90's (albeit there was brief GOP appointee in 1987).

            "There are three basic types: the Wills, the Won'ts, and the Can'ts. The Wills accomplish everything, the Won'ts oppose everything, and the Can'ts won't try anything"

            by lordpet8 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 03:12:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  By presidential numbers (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY, gigantomachyusa

            The two states are similar only since Obama.  In pretty much every election before, Nebraska is around 8 points redder than Kansas.  I attribute this mostly to Obama's targeting of NE-02 in 2008 (and lingering support).  NE-02 after all went from Bush 60-38 to Obama 50-49, and even NE-01 had a swing larger than any district in Kansas, going from Bush 63-36 to McCain 54-44.

            In 2004: NE went 66-33 Bush and KS went 62-37
            In 2000: NE went 62-33 Bush and KS went 58-37
            In 1996: NE went 54-35 Dole and KS went 54-36 (Dole's home state)
            In 1992: NE went 47-29 Bush and KS went 39-34
            In 1988: NE went 60-39 Bush and KS went 56-43

            You get the idea.  Kansas may not have elected a Dem senator in a really long time, but it did elect a Dem governor recently.  Both are implacably red because of their western parts, but Kansas has had a bit more Dem strength in the eastern part than Nebraska did, up until the Obama effort in NE-02.

    •  Where do you see (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JDJase

      The size of the donation?

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 08:51:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Secret Millionaire's Club (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      Maybe Buffet can get Haasslbrook to guest star on his cartoon series.

    •  Buffett helped put Omaha on the map (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and making it an unlikely home of a financial giant.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:06:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Walker fan charged with 13 counts of voter fraud (23+ / 0-)
    In one of the biggest cases of voter fraud ever in Wisconsin, a Milwaukee area health insurance executive has been charged with casting multiple votes for Republican candidates — including Gov. Scott Walker in the 2012 recall election.

    Robert Monroe of Shorewood was charged Friday with 13 felonies related to his voting a dozen times in five elections between 2011 and 2012, using his own name along with his son’s and his girlfriend’s son.

    Link
  •  WV-Sen: Hypothetical matchup (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PSUCentrePA

    Who wins this race: Capito v. Manchin? Open seat or incumbent, pick your poison.

    •  Predictions (0+ / 0-)

      Manchin would prevail probably 54-46 if he is the incumbent  in 2012 against Capito.  She would be able to pool most of here district with the exception of Charleston with her.

      In an open race I feel that it is a clear tossup, Captio's district would strongly favor her while Rahall's district would lean to Manchin.  I would imagine that it would be a fight to see who McKinley's district (WV-1) would vote for, I would imagine it would lean towards Capito in the end.  So a slight tilt to Capito, but that could easily change given the national climate.

    •  I think she wins in 2010 had she run (5+ / 0-)

      but I think he wins in 2012. I think he could potentially be very vulnerable in 2018 but polling here has been a joke in terms of frequency and comprehensiveness.

    •  In 2014? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GoUBears

      Capito for sure for an open seat.  Obama and the national Ds are just that toxic in West Virginia now.  

      As an incumbent it is a tougher call.  A small poor state like West Virginia values its clout.  But Manchin doesn't have all that much.  But he does have a centrist record and one of standing up for the coal industry in Washington.  So I'd say tossup/tilt D.

      Ironically, I would put a Rockefeller v Capito race as a tossup.  Rockefeller would have run on his 30 years of seniority and delivering for West Virginia, and I think it would have held a lot of conservative Democrats, even with his liberal record, even against Capito.  

  •  NY-07 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Nydia Velazquez's district has a primary today so if you are I that district, please take a moment to vote.

  •  OR HD-24: upset brewing? (8+ / 0-)

    HD-24 is based in McMinnville with several small cities and parts of rural Yamhill and Washington counties:
     photo HD24.png

    Obama got 49% of the vote there in 2012. Incumbent Jim Weidner has been an embarrassment to Republicans since he was elected. Democrat Ken Moore (listed as a handyman) has significantly outraised him so far this year, a bit more than 2-1. He currently has over $19k in the bank while Weidner only has about $1,500.

    The district was redrawn in redistricting, going north from McMinnville rather than south, but in 2006 we only lost the old version by about 300 votes to another embarrassing incumbent Republican.

    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

    by James Allen on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 09:44:27 AM PDT

    •  wow, and just noticed that in HD-23 to the south (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GoUBears, lordpet8, Mopshell

      there may ne a Republican split. Republican nominee Mike Nearman had ousted incumbent Jim Thompson in the primary with support from the anti-gay and anti-abortion groups, after Thompson endorsed gay marriage.

      Now Republican Beth Jones is trying to get on the ballot as the Independent Party nominee, saying she was inspired by the bitter primary.

      The district is only about R+8 and there's a Democrat in the race, so if Jones is serious about campaigning there could be an interesting split in the vote.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:13:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  thought about the parties (0+ / 0-)

    this is sort of psychological projection and its hard to ascribe motives to people of the other parties. But I think the whole "I've got mine, so GFY" argument is often lazy and doesn't take a closer look at the conservative mentality.

    My opinion is that the republicans/conservatives are more a nationalist party than anything else. Like Joni Ernst appeared in an ad saying something about "Iowa Values" and when I saw that, I thought "this isn't conservatism, this is nationalism".

    Any of you guys agree with me?

    idiosyncratic, slightly anarchist, darwinist, moral relativist, fan of satire

    by bonzo925 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 09:47:55 AM PDT

  •  steam sale (6+ / 0-)

    has political machine 2012 on sale for $1.35. It's not the best election simulator, but decent for the price.  I prefer  democracy  3, but that game's for the for the policy thread.

    NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:09:13 AM PDT

    •  What's the game like? (0+ / 0-)

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:17:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  decent (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, ChadmanFL, sacman701

        it's a turn based game where you go across the country (mostly) raising money, giving speeches, setting up HQ's and using clout and political capital to win endorsements and hire operatives.  You can play as candidates from 2012 and before or create your own.

        The 2004 game helped me after Kerry's loss, it's nice to see the entire map turn blue, regardless of how likely that is to happen.

        Democracy 3 is one where you run a country (although you do face elections) and have to implement, change or cancel policies to make the country the way the player wants.  It's incredibly complex and fun to imagine governing the way you always wanted to, or govern as another person.  I've tried to win governing the way Australian PM Tony Abbott does and can't yet.  You also have to avoid being assassinated, which happens pretty often in the early parts of the game.

        The elections and party aspect is overly simplified and there's no way anyone could accomplish so much in so little time, but that kind of oversimplification is to be expected.  I do wish they had more mechanics involving population and demographics though.

        I hope this wasn't too ff topic, but both involve elections and politics, plus a little fun doesn't hurt.

        NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

        by DougTuttle on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:50:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Totally cool to talk about (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          anshmishra

          I mean, it's video games about elections. That seems like a perfect topic here!

          I haven't tried too many (I'm not so big into video games, though I do like some), but I did download a demo for one of the Tropico games that James mentioned below. Way too much micromanagement for my tastes, though.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 11:03:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  in that case (0+ / 0-)

            another really interesting aspect of democracy 3 is how after winning re-election it shows where on the political spectrum (socialist to capitalist and liberal to conservative) the governance of the nation was.  Mine are usually liberal capitalist, with a few exceptions depending on what's needed and what group wants to kill me in the game.

            NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

            by DougTuttle on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 11:18:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I love the first Tropico (0+ / 0-)

            It still holds up very well and is worth getting if you can. I have Tropico 3 but never had time to get into it.

            Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

            by Jeff Singer on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 11:31:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I like President Forever (0+ / 0-)

      It's pretty hard to play and costs $20, but it's a reasonably good game if you like election simulators.

      28, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:26:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like Tropico (0+ / 0-)

      only have #4. Not realistic at all, but fun.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:53:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm old school (0+ / 0-)

      for local politics, I play Sim City.

      For monarchial/imperial politics, I play The Witcher 2.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 12:07:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tokyo Assembly: Sexism goes a step too far (5+ / 0-)

    Might be a bit old, but still good to know.

    http://ajw.asahi.com/...

    Pressed by the ruling party, a Tokyo assemblyman on June 23 belatedly admitted to sexually taunting a female colleague, but criticism continued to rage over the scandal that has brought “shame to the country.”

    After a meeting of the Liberal Democratic Party’s group of Tokyo assembly members, Akihiro Suzuki, 51, acknowledged that he heckled Ayaka Shiomura during the June 18 assembly session.

    Suzuki, who was elected from the Ota Ward constituency and is serving his third term in the assembly, is believed to have interrupted Shiomura’s presentation by shouting, “You are the one who must get married as soon as possible.”

    The assemblywoman was calling on the Tokyo metropolitan government to help increase the nation’s low birthrate by providing support to women for child-raising activities and to deal with infertility issues.

    Another taunt directed at Shiomura, apparently from the assembly section reserved for LDP members, was, “Can’t you even bear a child?”

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:15:03 AM PDT

    •  This seems commonplace in Japan (4+ / 0-)

      Shintaro Ishihara, the leader of the Japan Restoration Party (which has 53 out of 480 seats in the Japanese lower house), has said many sexist things, including that women past child-bearing age are useless and are sinning by continuing to live. I suppose the right wing in Japan is concerned about the country's demographic decline, but they're also xenophobic and would never choose to allow more immigration, so they have to focus on child-bearing by Japanese women.

      •  Shintaro Ishihara is in his own category (6+ / 0-)

        He's a sexist, a racist, a xenophobe, an ultra-hawk, and a historical revisionist.

        He has also said the 2011 earthquake and tsunami was "punishment from heaven."

        Somehow he was elected governor of Tokyo and is now in the Japanese Diet.

        24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 10:51:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Punishment from heaven? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Is he a Japanese Jerry Falwell?

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 12:06:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  don't forget (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          kurykh, MichaelNY

          a homophobe, an ableist...

          Toru Hashimoto, the mayor of Osaka and other Japan Restoration Party leader, got disinvited from San Francisco (Osaka's sister city) for saying that American servicemen in Okinawa should utilize prostitutes so that they are less compelled to rape, and called WWII sex slavery a necessary evil.

          Sexism is endemic here and one half-hearted bow isn't going to change that. Nonetheless, that they even felt compelled to worry about appearances is a somewhat positive sign.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 03:19:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  it's super common (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, kleinburger

        the current governor of Tokyo also said back in the day that women aren't fit for politics because their menstrual cycles make them irrational. I don't think he ever apologized for that one.

        Japanese politics makes American politics look like a social justice symposium.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 03:13:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Heh, that diction is hilarious. (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 12:05:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-Gov, Crist can weather the attack ads as long (7+ / 0-)

    as Scott's numbers remain in the low 40s.  We can take this race.  I'm very confident about it.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 11:02:26 AM PDT

    •  Scott is in the doldrums in FL (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY, Mopshell

      His support remains static if I were Team Scott I would be worried that his numbers aren't rising at all despite all the $$ he's spending. People just don't like him at all clearly I think Crist ends up winning in the end but no one will win with more than 50% the Libertarian will probably get 4-6%.

    •  That's the thing, Scott is driving down Crist (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY, MetroGnome, Mopshell

      But his own numbers are not budging.  He's mired in the low-mid 40's - terrible for an incumbent.

      •  In these cases (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        What usually happens is that those who are undecided just don't show up to vote. In which case, driving down Crist's numbers puts the race into tossup territory because those who are supporting a candidate are more evenly split.

        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 11:48:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I've never been a believer (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in the idea that the incumbent's raw percentage is that significant, when compared to the margin versus his or her opponent.  Focusing on the former means assuming that the undecideds lean towards the unchallenger...always a dubious claim.

        •  That's not true (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, MichaelNY

          It simply means that an incumbent has a smaller established base among people who have already presumably voted for them, know who they are, and have previously heard and understood their message. A challenger usually doesn't have that.

          It's simply a sign of potential weakness that an incumbent must re-convince the people who voted for them originally. The safest incumbents are those for whom everyone is already convinced to vote. Mark Warner and Joe Manchin spring to mind. Folks like Kay Hagan who typically have a ton of undecideds in her polls are vulnerable precisely because she has to re-convince people who voted for her in 2008. She doesn't have an established base that approaches 50%.

          The undecideds could break towards her. They could break against her. But I'd be much happier if I were an incumbent tied at 47% with my challenger than if I were an incumbent tied at 40%.

  •  Dude where's my Congressional seat? (OK-5) (8+ / 0-)

    I will be every so amused if this 27 year old's parents succeed in buying him a seat in the OK-5 primary. Talk about some helicopter parenting.

    http://gawker.com/...

    28, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 11:28:43 AM PDT

  •  and another downstate HD is in the news here (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, Hamtree, PassionateJus, Mopshell

    No Democrat is running in HD-25, in Keizer and Newberg, but right-wing nut Bill Post is the nominee for Republicans, and he faces former Democrat and current Independent Party member Chuck Lee. Given that it's an R+8 district it would usually be out of reach for us, but Post is a local right wing radio host, and has said a whole bunch of stupid shit, like calling House Speaker Tina Kotek "Tina Kotex", and much, much more. This guy is as inflammatory as they come.

     photo HD25-1.png

    Now retiring Republican State Rep. Vicki Berger of Salem is endorsing Lee. If Lee can rally Democrats and moderates in the district, it would be a huge improvement over the religious right crusaders like current Rep. Kim Thatcher and Bill Post. While Post has the support of many Republicans in the state house, Lee

    has received endorsements from former Rep. Vic Backlund, who represented the Keizer area, and business owners Dick Withnell, Gerry Frank and Larry Tokarski. He has also drawn the support of the local law enforcement community with endorsements from Marion County District Attorney Walt Beglau and Marion County Sheriff Jason Myers.

    However, Republicans aren't the only ones who like him.

    The Oregon School Employees Association and Salem-Keizer Education Association both support Lee as a candidate, as does former Yamhill County Commissioner Mary Stern, a Democrat who spent her career in law enforcement administration.

    Post raised a lot more money this year than Lee so far (2.5 times as much), but had to spend most of it on a contested primary, meaning Lee currently has more money in the bank, with almost $25,000 to less than $4,500.

    This is also one of a few races where I think the Independent Party could claim their first real victories in the state.

    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

    by James Allen on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 12:51:06 PM PDT

  •  CA-31: Recount starts tomorrow (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.dailybulletin.com/...

    An official recount in the 31st Congressional District primary race on behalf of Republican Lesli Gooch is scheduled to begin Wednesday, officials at the San Bernardino County Elections Office said Monday.

    The recount was granted after Redlands Tea Party Patriots board member John Berry requested ballots be counted again in 186 of the 477 precincts that led to Gooch finishing 209 votes behind Democrat Pete Aguilar in the statewide Primary Election held June 3, according to the certified election count.

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:02:30 PM PDT

  •  NH-Sen: Shaheen releases minute-long ad (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, ChadmanFL, Tayya, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    on constituent services: https://www.youtube.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:08:45 PM PDT

  •  DRA afficiandos (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, ChadmanFL, anshmishra

    Get to work.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    How would the states vote?  

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:25:32 PM PDT

  •  So is that due to a FL Cuban generational gap? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    There's a large Cuban population in northeast Jersey (which produced Sen. Menendez and Rep. Sires), but that's been Dem for a while now (some fled during the reign of Batista).

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:30:20 PM PDT

  •  FWIW Rass has Sandoval up 55-28; Reid underwater (0+ / 0-)
        Sandoval picks up 55% support to former State Economic Development Commissioner Robert Goodman’s 28%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, while 11% are undecided.
        Sandoval, who defeated Senator Harry Reid’s son Rory in the 2010 gubernatorial race with 53% of the vote, easily won his party’s June 10 primary with 90% of the vote. The state Democratic primary that same day had a somewhat demoralizing outcome, with Goodman picking up 25% of the vote, running second to the 30% who chose “none of these candidates.”
        This helps explain why 86% of Nevada Republicans support Sandoval, but only 60% of Democrats back Goodman. One-in-four Democrats (24%) support the GOP incumbent. Voters not affiliated with either major political party favor Sandoval by a 56% to 17% margin.
        Sixty-four percent (64%) of Nevada voters approve of the job Sandoval is doing as governor, including 21% who Strongly Approve. Twenty-eight percent (28%) disapprove, but that includes just nine percent (9%) who Strongly Disapprove.
        Although he ran twice for lieutenant governor, Goodman is at a disadvantage when it comes to name recognition: 34% of Nevada voters have never heard of him. Eight percent (8%) regard the Democrat Very Favorably, while 11% view him Very Unfavorably. For the very well-known Sandoval, Very Favorable opinions are at 28%, while Very Unfavorable ones are at seven percent (7%).
        For comparison, 22% of Nevada voters have a Very Favorable impression of Harry Reid, while 47% view the Senate majority leader Very Unfavorably. Nevada voters have a more negative impression of the longtime Democratic senator than voters on the national level do.  Fifteen percent (15%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Republican Dean Heller who is his first full-term in the Senate, while 19% view him Very Unfavorably.
    Link

    I heard on twitter that Reid's #'s are 36/59 it's Rass but I can buy that Reid hasn't got any more popular since 2010. Sandoval/Reid race would be tough.

  •  WaPo ranks 2016 GOP Field by conservatism (7+ / 0-)
    Using a combination of our own familiarity with the subject and a perusal of various Tea Party organizations' websites, we identified seven key conservative positions and evaluated 10 Republican candidates against them.  Here are the issues, and how we scored the candidates on them:

       - Common Core. Opposition to the federal education standard has emerged as a key rallying point for conservative groups.

       - Repeal of Obamacare. This needs no real description, we assume.

       - Balanced budget amendment. A component of the Republican "cut, cap, and balance" approach to the federal budget in 2011, a constitutional amendment mandating a balanced budget continues to be popular. Predictably, the conservative position is "pro."

       - Raising the debt ceiling. Another fight that largely originated in 2011, conservative groups oppose repeated increases to the debt ceiling.

       - Gay marriage. Gay marriage's position at the intersection of states rights, the judiciary, and religious belief has made it a critical issue in conservative politics. Conservatives oppose gay marriage. There are degrees of response to gay marriage, however. Some Republicans (and Hillary Clinton) support deciding the legality of gay marriage on a state-by-state basis.

       - Abolishing the IRS. Opposition to taxation is a key component of Tea Party activism, with some even advocating that the IRS itself should be abolished.

       - Immigration reform. Conservative activists oppose the Senate's compromise legislation on immigration reform, largely because of concern that it creates a system of "amnesty" -- a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

        1. Ted Cruz, 13 points
        2. Rick Perry, 9
        3. Marco Rubio, 7
        4. Bobby Jindal, 6
        5. Rand Paul, 3
        6. Scott Walker, 3
        7. Paul Ryan, 2
        8. Mike Huckabee, -2
        9. Chris Christie, -6
        10. Jeb Bush, -11
    Link
    •  They should put 20-week abortion ban (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in there, too.  And some foreign policy stuff.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 01:53:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Harder to divine on foreign policy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        as one school of right-wingers believe "might is right" while others say "we must retract into our shell."

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:18:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's a meaningful difference (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Although it's hard to judge which is more conservative.  One is more neocon, one is more old-school conservative.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:26:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Do any of the ten GOP candidates (0+ / 0-)

        oppose even a total ban on abortion?  I doubt it.  

        I suppose some of them would allow for a rape/incest exception (likely Paul, Walker, Christie, and Bush), but that is the extent of the differences on that issue.  

    •  Hmm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I have to think that this is probably not good news for Jeb Bush.  He has a ton of liabilities with the electorate, across the ideological spectrum.  The only people who like him are political consultants and establishment Republicans.  I have to think that the GOP primary voters will pick someone else as their nominee.

  •  NY-State Senate: Reunion plan being brokered: (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.cityandstateny.com/...

    Some key unions said they were badgering Klein about his stupidity in being the stooge for Skelos (like the Lib Dem leader and Cameron).  Cuomo and Deblasio led the discussions.  In the deal, Klein and a pick of the mainline Dems will share joint power as co-Majority Leaders.  Also, the support for primary challenges against Avella, Klein, and presumably Savino will evaporate.

    If this goes through, Savino's 180 will be amusing.

    This also helps Cuomo keep his promise.

    I guess Felder will flip to the Dem caucus too or else he will suddenly find himself embarrassed and bereft of subsidies for yeshivas.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:17:26 PM PDT

  •  DKE Trivia questions: VEEPs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Who is the only Vice president to be elected by the US Senate?

    Name the Vice Presidents that served under two different presidents?

    "There are three basic types: the Wills, the Won'ts, and the Can'ts. The Wills accomplish everything, the Won'ts oppose everything, and the Can'ts won't try anything"

    by lordpet8 on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:25:47 PM PDT

  •  CA-Controller (4+ / 0-)

    Almost done, Trinity County updated, leaving the bizarre uner-slackers in Lake County as the only place with a meaningful number of ballots left to count (6100).  About half the counties still have their final certified numbers to send in, which could change a vote or two.

    Lake counted 8950 votes on election night, which yielded a 664 vote lead for Perez in the county.  Yee is now 867 votes ahead, so if Lake's remaining ballots break like they did election night, Yee still wins by 400+ votes.

    All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

    by tommypaine on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:30:59 PM PDT

  •  Toronto mayor (7+ / 0-)

    Can folks following this give me a capsule summary of where the race stands so that I can sound smart about this one?

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:42:05 PM PDT

    •  Here's the wikipedia article if that helps at all (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      Looks like the NDP's Olivia Chow has led all the recent polls included in the article with Ford and other candidates all splitting the vote on the right despite adding up to a majority.

    •  In (9+ / 0-)

      likelihood of winning come October 27:

      Olivia Chow > John Tory > Rob Ford

      Olivia Chow has the advantage that she's the only major candidate on the left (it was rumored Adam Vaughan wanted to run as well, but he wisely chose to run for the Liberals in the by-election to fill Chow's vacant seat in parliament) and that she has some prominent Liberals such as Warren Kinsella and former McGuinty cabinet minister George Smitherman backing her candidacy.

      John Tory is the candidate of business interests and center-right voters too embarrassed to pull the lever for Rob Ford. Tory and Chow have focused the bulk of their attacks on each other. Tory has attacked Chow for her ties to the NDP and Chow has attacked Tory for his constant flip-flopping on public transit issues such as a new subway line for Downtown Toronto and the Scarborough Subway.

      For reference Chow is the only candidate to oppose the Scarborough Subway, she wants to return to the original plan which called for a light rail line from Downtown Toronto to Scarborough.

      Rob Ford is well....Rob Ford. Believe it or not he's not down and out and it would be a mistake to count him out. His supporters AKA Ford Nation have proven they will stick with the man no matter how many times he's caught on camera either smoking crack or embarrassing himself and Toronto.

      In fact if Tory and Chow nuke each other Ford could possibly slip through to victory. He's still polling a good third despite everything that's happened to him. Plus he's really good at campaign as a conservative populist far more than people give him credit for.

      Also to that end Olivia Chow launched radio ads attacking Rob Ford today. They are quite humorous....if I may say myself.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 03:07:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Great summary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Thank you so much.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 03:08:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I guess it's nonpartisan? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And there's no Liberal-affiliated candidates running? I got an impression that it was some sort of hippie-ish (white) woman with dreadlocks, but I'm probably mistaken.

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

        by gabjoh on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 05:00:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  LOL (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          the only people who take Sarah Thomson seriously is herself and the Ontario Liberal riding association of Trinity-Spadina which put her up against Rosario Marchese in 2011.

          And yes the race is officially nonpartisan. Karen Stintz probably would have been the closest thing to the Liberal candidate in the race except her constant flip flopping on the Scarborough Subway/Rob Ford's subway plans has destroyed her credibility. Plus John Tory sucked up all the oxygen of the center-right non Rob Ford vote.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 05:16:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Rhode Island State House Filing Update 2 (0+ / 0-)

    The RI GOP got 7 new candidates for their Rhode Island state house races, this time they nominated candidates for the more competitive seats.  

    5/7 GOP incumbents have filed, the only ones that have not are Rep. Patrica Morgan and Joseph Trillo, both should file for re-election soon, however, I put HD-26 on the map due to the fact that Patrica Morgan's Democratic challenger has already filed.  However, if she couldn't get knocked out in 2012 I seriously think she won't lose in a midterm.  However, I will be cautious and put her in the Lean Republican category.  

    Notice Republicans have yet to gain any seats from any of the seats that have been put up.  Nevertheless, one Democratic seat has landed in my tossup category, HD-72 we will see a rematch with former one-term Republican Representative Daniel Reilly challenging Democratic Representative Linda Finn for his former seat she won from him.  He lost by 100 votes in 2012 so I think this is the state GOP's best pickup opportunities.  The President also only took 54% in this district, another indicator that this will be a tight race.  However, the indicator for this and all the house races will be the Governor's race, if the Republican candidate for Governor manages to start polling between 10-15% consistently I think this seat goes to the GOP.  Between 5-10% then the Lean Democratic seats will move into the Tossup Catagory and so on.

    The *= seats that weren't filed in yesterday but have been filed in today.

    Safe Democrat: HD-1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 22, 23, 25, 27, 29, 32, 33, 34, 38,  42, 43, 45, 47, 49*, 52, 53, 54, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 67, 69, 70, 73, 75
    Likely Democrat: HD-28, 41*, 46, *71
    Lean Democrat: HD-35
    , 39,
    Tossup: HD-72*
    Lean Republican: HD-26*
    Likely Republican: HD-31
    Safe Republican: HD-30*, 40*, 48

  •  RGA sure is airing a lot of ads in NM (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    All those ads against King must mean their internals show that Martinez could be vulnerable. I think it's a mistake for the DGA to abandon this race.  

  •  Colorado legislative primaries tonight (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PSUCentrePA, James Allen

    Not much of interest on the Dem side, but there's a couple important ones for Republicans.  Yet again, the GOP risks nominating unelectable crazies in swing districts.  A big mover of these candidates is the Rocky Mountain Gun Owners (RMGO), a group that thinks the NRA is too soft in fighting gun control.

    SD-19 (held by Rachel Zenzinger (D), who was appointed after Evie Hudak resigned to avoid the recall): Republicans have Lang Sias, who ran for the seat in 2012 and only lost by 46-47 to Hudak (a Libertarian soaked up the rest).  However, RMGO-backed Laura Woods outpaced Sias at the convention.  Obama won this seat 52-45.

    SD-22 (held by Andy Kerr (D)): Republicans have attorney Marco Nicolais (the mainstream candidate), and RMGO-backed Tony Sanchez.  Kerr is a strong incumbent who won tough races in 2010 (for state house) and 2012 (for senate).  Once again, the RMGO candidate outpaced the more mainstream one at the convention.  Obama won this seat 53-45.

    Both of these seats are in suburban Jefferson County, west of Denver.

    As for the higher profile races, I'm expecting CO-04 to go something like Buck 45%, Renfroe 30%, Kirkmeyer 20%, Laffey 5%.  Renfroe had a strong showing at the convention (probably because of his RMGO support), but I think Buck will win based on name recognition around the rest of the district (the three main candidates will split Weld County, their collective base).

    CO-Gov I'm thinking will be Tancredo 35%, Beauprez 30%, Gessler 20%, Kopp 15%.  Tancredo has taken attacks from every angle, but I think his hardcore fans will push him just barely across the finish line.  Beauprez got in too late, and has his own credibility problem with Republicans.  Gessler got overshadowed.  Kopp is, somewhat surprisingly, considered to be the most conservative choice (he's RMGO-backed), and he did win the convention, when Tancredo and Beauprez sat out.  So I think he'll avoid a truly embarrassing single digit finish, and only narrowly trail Gessler.

    •  Didn't Tancredo himself essentially say he (0+ / 0-)

      wasn't going to win? I'm predicting Beauprez by high single digits.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 03:57:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was a strange comment from him (0+ / 0-)

        But I don't think enough has changed in the race to leave Beauprez favored.  With all four Republican candidates coming from the Denver area, I think the vote totals from there will be so split that Beauprez won't be able to rack up a large enough margin to offset Tancredo's (presumed) strength in the other conservative strongholds on the state.

        I might be wrong, but I think Tancredo wins by 5 tonight.  Strange that there were barely any polls of the race.  The grand total was three, two of them from PPP, and one a Beauprez internal.  FWIW, the Beauprez internal (conducted by Magellan, end of May) had Tancredo up 27-25.  PPP found Tancredo up 24-20 in mid-March, and up 34-15 on Gessler in December (before Beauprez entered).

  •  Official prediction (0+ / 0-)

    Cochran wins 51/49
    Beauprez wins
    Buck wins
    Stefanik wins
    Hanna wins

  •  Crosstabs from that SUSA FL-Gov poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, James Allen, Le Champignon

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

    Looks like the undecideds lean more toward Democrats.

    Also they asked Clinton/Rubio and Biden/Rubio for 2016 and got Clinton demolishing him 53/39 and Biden losing 43/46!

  •  Question (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Mopshell

    how common is it for state legislators to respond to constituent e-mails?

    I sent an e-mail to both my state rep and sen last week asking why they voted to eliminate straight-ticket voting. No response yet. Both represent only a few thousand people, so I doubt they are getting flooded with e-mails...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 04:44:53 PM PDT

  •  MI-04 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    It seems to me the surprising thing in this race is that the sitting state senator isn't seen as the presumptive nominee like I thought he would.  This is a two-person race with Mitchell (the other guy might hurt Mitchell a bit), and Mithcell has already been up on the television early and often.

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 09:22:39 PM PDT

  •  NC: Wonderful preview of our next house speaker (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.wral.com/...

    Paul Stam (R-Wake) will very likely be taking over as state house speaker next year, as Tillis is not running for re-election to his seat.

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