Since this is a subject which requires quite a a lot of background information and, as a result the text is very long, I will publish it in three parts. The first two parts, today and probably tomorrow, will be background information. The third part, probably on Friday, will be my analysis.
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Background Information:
Iraq has an area of 438,317 sq km, which is a liitle bigger than California (423,970 sq km).
The population of Iraq is about 32,500,000. For comparison, the population of California is about 38,500,000.
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It is impossible to get reliable information about the demographics of Iraq.
This is my estimate of the demographic makeup of Iraq.
Arab 73%
- Shia 56%
- Sunni 17%
Kurd 20%
- Sunni 17% (may be a little lower)
- Shia 1.5% (may be a little higher)
- Yazidi 1.5%
Turkmen 3%
- Sunni 1.5%
- Shia 1.5%
Persian 2%
- Shia 2%
Assyrian/Chaldean/Armenian 1.5%
- Christian 1.5%
Other 0.5%
- Mandaean
- Jewish
- Hindu
- Buddhist
By Religion:
Shia 61%
Sunni 35.5%
Yazidi 1.5%
Christian 1.5%
Other 0.5%
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There are 19 governorates in Iraq.
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1. Duhok |
6. Kirkuk |
11. Al-Karbala |
16. An-Najaf |
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2. Erbil |
7. Diyala |
12. Babil |
17. Al Muthana |
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3. Sulaymaniyah |
8. Wasit |
13. Al-Qadisiyyah |
18. Basrah |
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4. Ninawa |
9. Baghdad |
14. Dhi Qar |
19. Halabja* |
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5. Salah Al-Din |
10. Al Anbar |
15. Maysan |
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* Halabja, which was the easternmost district of the Sulaymaniyah Governorate, was made a governorate by the Kurdistan Regional Government in March, 2014. The Iraqi Government is expected to also pass laws which will make Halabja a governorate. |
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The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was created by Article 53 of the Law of Administration for the State of Iraq for the Transitional Period (TAL) which was the US prepared provisional constitution under which Iraq was governed from June, 2004 to May, 2006 by a 'sovereign' Iraqi government after the power to govern was 'transfered' to it by the US-led occupation administration.
Article 53.
(A) The Kurdistan Regional Government is recognized as the official government of the territories that were administered by the that government on 19 March 2003 in the governorates of Dohuk, Arbil, Sulaimaniya, Kirkuk, Diyala and Neneveh. The term “Kurdistan Regional Government” shall refer to the Kurdistan National Assembly, the Kurdistan Council of Ministers, and the regional judicial authority in the Kurdistan region.
http://www.law.case.edu/...
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRoI) has an area (40,643 sq km) which is a little over 9% of the area of Iraq. For comparison the KRoI is a little bigger than Maryland.
According to the KRG its population is 5,200,000.
The KRoI is heavily Kurdish but a significant number of Assyrians/Chaldeans live in the western half of the Dohuk Governorate and in the northeastern areas of the Ninawa Governorate.
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Until the recent ISIS offensive in Iraq the KRG also had control over these areas adjacent to the KRoI. In some areas, especially along the Iraqi-Syrian border, there was also an Iraqi military presence.
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The KRG asserts that the areas defined by the red line should be included in the KRG, claiming that Kurds are in the majority in most of these areas and that those areas which don't have a Kurdish majority, especially Kirkuk, are historically Kurdish but the population balance was altered by the government of Saddam Hussein.
Most of the Iraqi Turkmen live in these disputed territories as do a significant number of Arabs.
After the recent ISIS offensive in Iraq the KRG took control of more of the disputed territories, especially in the Kirkuk Governorate.
The US, in an effort to address the question of disputed territories and to appease the Iraqi Kurds, included Article 58 in the TAL.
Article 58.
(A) The Iraqi Transitional Government, and especially the Iraqi Property Claims Commission and other relevant bodies, shall act expeditiously to take measures to remedy the injustice caused by the previous regime’s practices in altering the demographic character of certain regions, including Kirkuk, by deporting and expelling individuals from their places of residence, forcing migration in and out of the region, settling individuals alien to the region, depriving the inhabitants of work, and correcting nationality. To remedy this injustice, the Iraqi Transitional Government shall take the following steps:
(1) With regard to residents who were deported, expelled, or who emigrated; it shall, in accordance with the statute of the Iraqi Property Claims Commission and other measures within the law, within a reasonable period of time, restore the residents to their homes and property, or, where this is unfeasible, shall provide just compensation.
(2) With regard to the individuals newly introduced to specific regions and territories, it shall act in accordance with Article 10 of the Iraqi Property Claims Commission statute to ensure that such individuals may be resettled, may receive compensation from the state, may receive new land from the state near their residence in the governorate from which they came, or may receive compensation for the cost of moving to such areas.
(3) With regard to persons deprived of employment or other means of support in order to force migration out of their regions and territories, it shall promote new employment opportunities in the regions and territories.
(4) With regard to nationality correction, it shall repeal all relevant decrees and shall permit affected persons the right to determine their own national identity and ethnic affiliation free from coercion and duress.
(B) The previous regime also manipulated and changed administrative boundaries for political ends. The Presidency Council of the Iraqi Transitional Government shall make recommendations to the National Assembly on remedying these unjust changes in the permanent constitution. In the event the Presidency Council is unable to agree unanimously on a set of recommendations, it shall unanimously appoint a neutral arbitrator to examine the issue and make recommendations. In the event the Presidency Council is unable to agree on an arbitrator, it shall request the Secretary General of the United Nations to appoint a distinguished international person to be the arbitrator.
(C) The permanent resolution of disputed territories, including Kirkuk, shall be deferred until after these measures are completed, a fair and transparent census has been conducted and the permanent constitution has been ratified This resolution shall be consistent with the principle of justice, taking into account the will of the people of those territories.
In the continuing efforts to appease the Iraqi Kurds, Article 53(A) and Article 58 of the TAL were retained in the essentially US prepared Iraqi constitution, which came into force in May, 2006 and replaced the TAL.
Article 140:
First: The executive authority shall undertake the necessary steps to complete the implementation of the requirements of all subparagraphs of Article 58 of the Transitional Administrative Law.
Second: The responsibility placed upon the executive branch of the Iraqi Transitional Government stipulated in Article 58 of the Transitional Administrative Law shall extend and continue to the executive authority elected in accordance with this Constitution, provided that it accomplishes completely (normalization and census and concludes with a referendum in Kirkuk and other disputed territories to determine the will of their citizens), by a date not to exceed the 31st of December 2007.
Article 143:
The Transitional Administrative Law and its Annex shall be annulled on the seating of the new government, except for the stipulations of Article 53(A) and Article 58 of the Transitional Administrative Law.
http://www.iraqinationality.gov.iq/...