... actually might have a firm grasp on the situation.
First let's just fast forward past the events and actions which resulted in ISIS(IS) as it exists today.
There have been two WTF developments since the current ISIS offensive in Iraq began three weeks ago.
The first was the president and others in his administration calling for Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki to be 'more inclusive'.
Even a quick look at the makeup of the Iraqi Cabinet is enough to understand that about the only way it could be 'more inclusive' would be to include ISIS leader al-Baghdadi in the cabinet.
Not to mention that if the Iraqi Parliament were that unhappy with PM Maliki they could have removed him easily at any time with a vote of no confidence.
The second was the president's request for $500,000,000 to aid 'vetted moderate' Syrian rebels.
Finding 'vetted moderate' Syrian rebels would be a difficult task and finding 'vetted moderate' Syrian rebels who weren't corrupt even harder.
On the same day that the president made the request for the half billion dollars the US backed Syrian opposition fired the commander of the FSA and disbanded the SMC for corruption.
My initial reaction to these two WTF developments was that the Obama administration is fucking clueless.
But as I considered other developments I started to consider that the Obama administration just might not be so clueless.
For example the 'Well that's interesting' Iran related developments.
Iran sent General Soleimani to Baghdad to help with military planning and there were early reports that Iran might have sent troops to Baghdad. There was also at least one meeting between US and Iranian representatives and speculation, which quickly died down, that the US and Iran might cooperate in Iraq.
And the 'What???' Egypt related development.
Ten days ago US Secretary of State Kerry went to Cairo to visit President Sisi and promised that the US would provide more military aid to the Egyptian military.
And the 'What else would you expect?' Arabian Peninsula related developments.
The Obama administration has unsurprisingly continued its unwavering public support of the Saudi Arabian and Qatari governments and its acceptance of their continued dishonest blathering about Syrian, ISIS, and Iraqi related subjects.
When you factor all of these developments, and a few others, together with the announcement last week by ISIS of its 'restoration of the Caliphate', it is very possible that the Obama administration had some prior knowledge that this announcement was going to be made and took these actions to deprive ISIS of what could have been a very powerful weapon.
By acting as they did towards Shia Iraqi PM Maliki, and by being very publicly reluctant to send military aid to the supposedly Shia controlled Iraqi government, and by acting in a manor which quickly halted speculation that US and Shia Iranian cooperation was developing, and by requesting $500,000,000 (probably an empty request) of aid for 'vetted moderate' Sunni Syrian rebels, and by showing public support for the Sunni President of Egypt, and by continuing to support Sunni rulers in the Arabain Peninsula, the Obama administration may have deprived ISIS of the opprtunity, which it could have used very effectively, to claim that the US was supporting Shias [Iraq/Maliki, Syria/Assad (by not supporting the rebels), and Iran] who were waging war against the 'true-believing' Sunnis who were only fighting for the 'restoration of the Caliphate'.
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I have begun to see indications that Iraqi forces seem to be using, against ISIS et al, tactics similar to those that Syrian government forces have developed in the past three years.
- Don't spread your forces thinly trying to play whack-a-mole,
- Fortify and hold your positions, especially those which ISIS would like to take control of, forcing ISIS to expend its resources trying to take them,
- Let ISIS spread itself thin, sometimes losing smaller locations to ISIS can be a long term strategic advantage,
- Give the civilians who remain in ISIS held towns and cities time to get over any initial infatuation with ISIS they may have, causing more of them to leave these towns and cities, this reduces both future civilian casualties and any local support which may exist,
- Move on an ISIS held location (i.e. Tikrit) that ISIS doesn't want to lose, ISIS then has to redeploy its fighters to that location from other areas, giving you the opportunity to eliminate them as they arrive, and also results in weakening ISIS in the areas fighters have been shifted out of, and
- Concentrate your counteroffensives on selected areas, one-by-one, and eliminate ISIS in them (currently happening northeast of Baghdad).