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The Tampa Bay Times published an article (on the opinion page) today that claims that health insurance premiums will double in two years:

http://www.tampabay.com/...

Please read the article. It sounds as if it is well-researched, but it is on the opinion page.  If you don't have time, here is a quote:

First, the short version. Unless Congress makes radical changes to the law, the ACA's structural problems will lead to substantial premium increases within two years.... Within a decade, this could swell the ranks of the state's uninsured by 45 percent.
The author talks about "reinsurance" and "risk corridors" going away in 2017 as the root cause of the increase in premiums. He comes across as knowledgeable on the law.  Are there any ACA experts here in Kossackville who can tell me if the author's claims are specious or accurate?  This article has sent sent a couple of my neighbors into a gleespin the likes of which I've not witnessed since Obama's first debate with Romney.        

The author, Stephen Parente, was an advisor to John McCain. His initial foray into this subject was published in the Wall Street Journal.  

http://online.wsj.com/...

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Comment Preferences

  •  What's Their Worry? That WOuld Mean a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gchaucer2

    collapse of the Democrats as a national party in the Presidential election. They could repeal it and the rest of the 20th century they haven't repealed yet, if ACA goes that bad.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 03:18:40 PM PDT

  •  Instead of "ACA experts", we should be listening (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ColoTim, peacestpete

    in on health insurance company executives' strategy meetings. That way we'll know how they're planning to get around the rules before it's too late to do anything about it.

    "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

    by Greyhound on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 03:26:58 PM PDT

    •  why would they want to get around the rules (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mickey

      more premiums means more profits.

      •  It's not about charging premiums, the ACA makes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        katesmom, maxomai

        that inevitable. It's about how to withhold care while keeping the premiums as high as possible. Conforming to the regulations is not the concern at the top levels, they have a whole division/office dedicated to that task. They're talking about the next steps now, and you'll never stop, or even slow them down, playing catch-up.

        This is exactly what I was talking about, too many people seem to have forgotten how to view a situation from the other guy's perspective.

        "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

        by Greyhound on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 03:50:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  You'd have to ask the insurance corps (0+ / 0-)

    since it's almost totally up to them.

  •  it's on the opinion page (6+ / 0-)

    it's his opinion

    the article does not appear to be well researched to my eyes.  he does not say where he gets his information from.  he does come across as knowledgeable to me either.

    for all we know, the person who did the study he is quoting is also a partisan Republicon

    last but not least, premiums are going up for everyone even if they are NOT on Obamacare.  even his article says that employers are worried that they cannot have insurance anymore

    and look closely--he does not offer any solution at all.  employer based insurance will be expensive and O care will be expensive.  so what difference will be make if Ocare is repealed?

    there's nothing you can tell your RW neighbors.  If they were interested in facts, they would not be so quick to believe some random partisan guy telling them bad things about Ocare without proof.

    Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D.
    Drop by The Grieving Room on Monday nights to talk about grief.

    by TrueBlueMajority on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 03:29:48 PM PDT

  •  Incorrect for so many reasons (9+ / 0-)

    Reinsurance and risk corridors are cost control measures for the early phases of ACA implementation designed to protect insurance companies from suffering losses if the total number of enrollees or their demographic mix proves to be unsustainable.  They are designed to phase out once the individual mandate has been in place for a few years and the employer mandate takes effect.

    Now, we know that enrollment rates nationwide have been above the CBO's initial projections and the participation mix of cohorts has been deemed sustainable by the insurance industry.  Even if we ignore the nationwide stats and restrict to just FL, the acasignups site shows FL is at 145% of projection, so they're in even better shape.  

    The biggest potential driver of cost increases in FL's insurance market is going to be the refusal of the state to accept the Medicaid expansion.

  •  Your title is misleading. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chas 981, Wee Mama, tidalwave1, Delevie

    An opinion writer at the Tampa Bay Times is making this claim, not the Tampa Bay Times. Also, as you mention, this opinion writer was an advisor to John Mc Cain. Do you think he may have any biases that influence his opinion?

  •  First, The Tampa Bay Times didn't make the claim.. (5+ / 0-)

    So your title is wrong.
    It was an editorial that I read in today's paper. It said the author wrote it exclusively for The Tampa Bay Times.
    I know the paper's editorial board supports the ACA, so hopefully they'll be refuting the editorial's points soon.

    I share a birthday with John Lennon and Bo Obama.

    by peacestpete on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 03:56:51 PM PDT

    •  Better Headline: Former Advisor to John McCain (6+ / 0-)

      Claims What You'd Think He'd Claim

      •  lol - I like your revised headline. I read it... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        katesmom

        today in the dead tree version.
        The editorial's credit makes no mention of the author being a McCain advisor. I think that's a mistake by the Tampa Bay Times not to note that.
        Everything in the piece makes it seems as though it's an even-handed, scholarly analyis of ACA.
        This is how he is described at the end of the editorial:
        Stephen Parente is a professor of health finance, the associate dean of the Carlson School of Management and the director of the Medical Industry Leadership Institute at the University of Minnesota. He wrote this exclusively for the Tampa Bay Times.
        He makes it seems as though his conclusions are widely-held:

        First, the short version. Unless Congress makes radical changes to the law, the ACA's structural problems will lead to substantial premium increases within two years. Once that happens, Floridians will likely leave the insurance market in droves. They'll have little choice — they won't be able to afford health insurance because federal subsidies won't keep up with the rapid price increases. Within a decade, this could swell the ranks of the state's uninsured by 45 percent.

        This isn't baseless speculation. I reached this conclusion by using a peer-reviewed economic model published in several health journals. It was funded by both private and government sources, including the Department of Health and Human Services, and has been cited by multiple Supreme Court justices in ACA-related rulings.

        Question: Did he create the peer-reviewed economic model or did he just reach conclusions based on that model that someone else wrote? Either way, I think it's bunk.
        His last sentence:
        I fear that this health care cure may be worse than the disease.
        I fear that he is fear-mongerning.

        I share a birthday with John Lennon and Bo Obama.

        by peacestpete on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 04:21:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, my analysis, too; hence my title (0+ / 0-)

          It seems to me that the Tampa Bay Times is practicing a bit of that journalistic tradition known as sensationalism.

          sensationalism
          (noun)
          1. (esp. in journalism) the use of exciting or shocking stories or language at the expense of accuracy, in order to provoke public interest or excitement.   2. subject matter that is calculated to excite and please vulgar tastes.  

          I believe that their "Politifact" department occasionally employs the same tactic.  

  •  It would appear that Rick Scott's goons are out in (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, Alan Arizona, IB JOHN

    full force right now. And they will intensify that as we approach the mid-terms.

  •  Silly logic (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chas 981

    The gist of the article seems to be that by increasing affordable access to health insurance it's going to cause  premiums to skyrocket, which is going to cause a decrease in affordable access to health insurance, which is going to cause premiums to skyrocket.  

  •  Phasing out the (0+ / 0-)

    Subsidies for premiums will be felt by low income people.

    You best believe it does

    by HangsLeft on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 05:46:19 PM PDT

  •  Pseudo-scientific (0+ / 0-)

    I think the "money shot" is this section:

    I reached this conclusion by using a peer-reviewed economic model published in several health journals. It was funded by both private and government sources, including the Department of Health and Human Services, and has been cited by multiple Supreme Court justices in ACA-related rulings.
    Presumably this un-named model is a program which gives an outcome based on the variables that the user decides to feed in. Old saying: garbage in, garbage out. The simple fact he uses the waffle about the model without naming it or giving the parameters he chose shows just how deceitful the article is.

    "Come to Sochi, visit the gay clubs and play with the bears" - NOT a Russian advertising slogan.

    by Lib Dem FoP on Mon Jul 07, 2014 at 05:57:01 PM PDT

  •  If those premiums go up that (0+ / 0-)

    would mean that medical costs would have had to go up as well.  The law is clear that if the claims ration is not 80% of premium, then the state cannot raise the premium.  What this guy is doing is just lying his ass off.  

  •  Imagine that!!, Same Opinion here in WI!! (0+ / 0-)

    what are the Odds??  http://www.jsonline.com/...

    Don't confuse Confidence with Arrogance.

    by bearsguy on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 06:39:42 AM PDT

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