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Global installed capacity mix and projected additions, by technology (GW) Bloomberg
 

A prediction from Bloomber New Energy Finance: 2030 Market Outlook, has been released showing Bloomberg's energy division's view of the new financial investment the expect in the next 16 years. Note they include nuclear as a "renewable" which changes the definition.

Bloomberg does not say much about their model, or assumptions. This scenario looks conservative to me in terms of the amount of renewable capacity additions, and excessive for the number of additional fossil fuel plants added, especially in the late 20s, however you know what they always say, "a projection in hand, is worth two in the archives," so I'm sharing this one with you now and hope we can add some additional more optimistic projections showing a faster transition to renewable energy, this evening after work.  

Also note the text indicates indicates different percentages than their 2030 pie chart. So in the title I used an estimate from the chart instead of the text which appears to have two misprints. I'm showing this mostly as a conversation starter.    

By 2030, the world’s power mix will have transformed: from today’s system with two-thirds fossil fuels to one with over half from zero-emission energy sources. Renewables will command over 60% of the 5,579GW of new capacity and 65% of the $7.7 trillion of power investment.

Rooftop solar PV will dominate, taking up a fifth of the capacity additions and investment to 2020. But fossil fuels will maintain a 54% share of generation – albeit down from 67% in 2013. ...

If governments wish to decarbonise their power sectors by 2030, they cannot rely on economics (ie, declining renewable technology costs) and market forces alone - some form of policy intervention will be required.

Bloomberg says little about their "model" or assumptions which appear to be mostly an extrapolation of current trends for half of this scenario, with almost straight-line runs outs from 2025.  

This prediction also includes no pressure from policy decisions to limit carbon emissions, so we do not see anywhere near sufficient reduction in burning fossil fuels. Note that the middle chart is capacity "additions. So these authors assume the world is going to keep building substantial numbers of new fossil fuel plants steadily through the next 16 years.

I'll have to check more carefully, but I'm fairly confident this scenario does not come close to limiting global warming to our benchmark goal of 2 degrees centigrade.

Remember, this is not a scholarly model, but a market research model, one has to become a Bloomberg client to see the details of. From the looks of this chart my guess is most of their clients are major players in the traditional fossil fuel industry.

Despite these limitations I appreciate when authors put a stake in the ground and show their assumptions about the world's total energy demand, and capacity mix out through 2030.

I'm going to find out as many others as I can. I remember one from Scientific American almost a decade ago that illustrated a plan to have all new additions of capacity coming from renewable by 2030, which I support as a global goal.

Even without any policy pressures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions we should see a greater contribution from solar and wind even in the first years.

I thought you might like to see our total gigawatts summed up in three charts. Bloomberg also has estimates broken down by continents which I will show later. I have to get back to work. I hoping to drop in later this evening. I can never see word gigawatts without thinking of the scientist in Back to the Future.

Cheers, and keep your sunny side up.

Originally posted to SciTech on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 01:32 PM PDT.

Also republished by Kosowatt, PostHuffPost: Connection-Conversation-Community , Climate Change SOS, and Good News.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (14+ / 0-)

    Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

    by HoundDog on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 01:32:37 PM PDT

  •  Michigan is making progress (7+ / 0-)

    Here is one plant that was not built: (bolding mine)

    http://content.sierraclub.org/...

    Plant Status:
    Defeated

    Developer:
    Wolverine Power Cooperative

    City:
    Rogers City

    Plant State:
    MI

    Plant Size (MW):
    600

    Technology:
    Circulating Fluidized Bed

    Fuel Type:
    PRB, petroleum coke, biomass
    CO2 Output (tons)**:
    3 280 391

    Update: December 2013

    On December 17, 2013 the Wolverine Power Supply Cooperative announced it is ending the development of the Wolverine “Clean Energy Venture,” a plan that included a coal-burning plant in Rogers City, Mich. The 600-megawatt venture was proposed in 2006. “Michigan’s energy future should be driven by clean, renewable sources like wind and solar, and a strong commitment to energy efficiency,” said Andrew Armstrong, attorney with the Environmental Law & Policy Center. “We look forward to working with Wolverine to make this future a reality.” This marks the 184th proposed new coal plant project to be canceled since 2010, what amounts to 640 million metric tons of avoided carbon dioxide emissions.

    and more good news:
    March 20, 2014

    Planned coal-fired power plant retirements continue to increase

    http://www.eia.gov/...

    Coal-fired electric generator retirements—announcements since November 2013

    Plant / Units     Plant Owner     State     Megawatts (MW)
    Paradise / 1-2     Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)     KY     1,230
    Widows Creek / 8
        TVA
        AL     465
    Colbert / 1-5
        TVA
        AL
        1,184
    Canadys / 2-3
        South Carolina Electric & Gas
        SC
        295
    B.C. Cobb / 4-5
        Consumers Energy (CE)
        MI
        312

    J.C. Weadock / 7-8
        CE
        MI
        310

    J.R. Whiting / 1-3
        CE
        MI
        325

    Brayton Point / 1-3
        Energy Capital Partners
        MA
        1,084
    Mitchell / 3
        Georgia Power
        GA
        155
           Total

     5,360 (5.4 gigawatts)

    Join us at Bookflurries-Bookchat on Wednesday nights 8:00 PM EST

    by cfk on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 01:46:59 PM PDT

    •  Thanks for sharing this cfk. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cfk, 207wickedgood, KenBee, Wee Mama

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 02:06:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Republished to Good News, both for the diary and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      for this comment.



      Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary? . . . and respect the dignity of every human being.

      by Wee Mama on Wed Jul 09, 2014 at 06:37:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks Wee Mama. What good news to be (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Wee Mama

        republished in Good News. I was tempted to do this myself, but I wanted to check with you first to see if you thought it appropriate.

        I appreciate the honor of being part of the Good News editorial team, and want to respect the vision and boundaries of the group. Not being sure, I figured I'd see if someone like you thought it worthy to be republished in the group.

        Thanks.

        :-)

        Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

        by HoundDog on Wed Jul 09, 2014 at 03:52:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  We need to break the strangle hold ... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, HoundDog, SCFrog, Odysseus, Wee Mama

    the fossil fuel industry has on our lives and our foreign policy...provided we last long enough.


    The Church of glb3, Inc., your sins are my salvation.

    by glb3 on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 01:53:16 PM PDT

  •  Their model is pessimistic (5+ / 0-)

    The price of solar is dropping, as predicted in 2010, to grid parity by 2017 or 2018.  Old coal plants are already being shut down apace and new ones rare when gas is cheaper than coal, so new investment in fossil fuel will dry up once solar hits its expected costs.

    http://www.theguardian.com/...

    And there's not a damn thing the Kochs or ALEC or the CEI or the AFP or any other alphabet-thugs can do about it.  Politicians will get run over if they stand between homeowners and their right to generate clean power, especially since many Tea Party groups are actually pro-solar:

    http://www.slate.com/...

    •  Agreed. Isn't technological progress sweet (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KenBee, Wee Mama

      sometimes.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 03:30:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think Bloomberg underestimates tipping points (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, Odysseus, trivium, Wee Mama

    They take two things as assumptions that i think are wrong

    1) That Natural gas and Tight Oil will continue
    to be growth sectors.

    2) That PV and Wind will be linear growth.

    I think Fracking will not last very long, the investors
    are finding out that the well productivity is low, real low
    and that it's mostly an accounting fraud.

    Given a few more years, the investors won't touch a fracking play with a 300 foot pole.

    http://i.imgur.com/...

    I"m seeing declines in Haynesville barnett and woodford
    with only marcellus growing. I think this will not be  a long term useful play.

    http://www.seia.org/...

    solar is roaring

    People are now starting to invest into solar systems hard,
    which is driving

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/...

    california into negative generation.

    now that Solar is mainstream, people are going to start installing battery big time.

    I don't think it will be 2030, i think it will be 2020.

    •  Agreed. Do you know of any aggregate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Wee Mama

      global projections available that are more in line with our thinking

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 04:44:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  not that i've seen (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Wee Mama, HoundDog

        it's far safer to under estimate.

        tipping points are funny in 1983, hardly anyone had a PC,
        by 1988, Everyone had a PC.

        Price points matter, if they can get a 2 KW system out for $5K, they will happen in large scale.

        •  I like your analogy to 1983 - 1986 in PC. Once (0+ / 0-)

          the tipping point is reached, changes can happen fast.

          The human intuition underestimates the power of positive feedback loops to produce exponential growth.

          If we just start with 1 and double it time interval, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, ..., soon the amount of the next charge dwarfs all the previous totals people have subconsciously become used to as "normal."

          Which is why I want to create our own database and simulation tool to enable us to explore our own scenarios.

          My intuitive feeling is that in the 2016 to 2020 period we will see a much bigger spike in conversion rates and then unlike this forecast which then assume all the positive feedback loops suddenly "freeze up." and the linearly flat line the rest of their forecast out to 2030.

          It would be as if in 1985 at 50% market penetration of PC, and additional 30% drop in PCs the sales rates suddenly flatline.

          That''s not the way it works. If by 2020 coal plants have not  even been remotely competitive with solar plants for years, why would investors keep building them at the same rate out to 2030?

          Especially if we, and all other countries enact trade sanctions on any country that is not shutting down old plants.

          So a more reasonable assumption might be to assume 0% additional coal plants built after 2020 or somewhere in that area.

          With regard to oil and natural gas it is more difficult to predict. I've seen some scenarios that assume if the owners of vast oil and natural gas reserves start to predict declining fossil fuel prices, their incentive reverses and in order not to be stuck with zero value stranded reserves they start dumping their product on the market and way lower prices to reduce the solar advantage.

          So a major oil price deflation scenario might slow down market penetration rates of solar, we need a scenario simulation tool to explore this. I used to do these professionally for the oil industry so it is just a matter of getting my old files, software, and research organized.

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Wed Jul 09, 2014 at 04:11:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Please write a diary about this - so much of what (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      one hears about fracking make it sound inevitable.



      Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary? . . . and respect the dignity of every human being.

      by Wee Mama on Wed Jul 09, 2014 at 06:39:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It might be even better .... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, a gilas girl, Wee Mama

    China is moving very aggressively on this subject

    •  Yes, Really big. The last few years they've spend (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Wee Mama

      over $39 billion from I can see.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 04:45:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In the end... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Wee Mama, HoundDog

      that will likely trump all the ideological and vested fossil fuel interests.

      Thanks for joining the dk conversation today.

      Welcome to Daily Kos. If you have any questions about how to participate here, you can learn more at the Community Guidelines, the Knowledge Base, and the Site Resource Diaries. Diaries labeled "Open Thread" are also great places to ask. We look forward to your contributions.
      ~~ from the DK Partners & Mentors Team.

      Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

      by a gilas girl on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 05:33:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is cool a gilas girl. This is new? Thanks. (0+ / 0-)

        Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

        by HoundDog on Wed Jul 09, 2014 at 04:13:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  the effect from storage solutions: microgrids (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, HoundDog, Calamity Jean

    microgrids  is the term, battery technology will enable distributed production near the users, and even independent of the main grid.  

    certainly large companies are making their own microgrids (google it) for all the reasons that eventually local communities and individuals will, that the grid is going to get more expensive, and the grid will begin to fail and failure will be too costly to tolerate, and too costly to fix correctly, whatever that is.....so them what can afford it will do so, they will be ABLE to be independent of the main grid thru microgrids: a combination of generation options: wind, solar,hydro,wave, fossil fuel all sure to be a part of that toolkit, enabled by advances in battery storage tech...
     I can also see an apartment building owner seeing all the tenant money going to a utility thinking, that could go to meeee!

    BUT this will get down to the homeowners as it is now with solar, so will the storage be a part of a house's solar package. It will be an enabling option.

    Musk's investment, any number of battery production investments are being seen, VCLib here said it's a hot topic in the VC community....soooo

    It will certainly accelerate the move to renewables.

    It will also weaken the grid by removing paying customers...which might allow the grid to teeter along without the zillionteen billions we have been haranged to spend on it...and don't. The nation's PUCs have been captive of their investors and aren't generally able to do much besides hang, altho they have done some big installations here and there, at the homeowner/business owner level they generally are a drag on progress.

    This machine kills Fascists.

    by KenBee on Wed Jul 09, 2014 at 01:12:31 AM PDT

    •  After you sent me those articles I've got a post g (0+ / 0-)

      underway about microgrids. Thanks KenBee

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Wed Jul 09, 2014 at 04:14:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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