This guy's win in a GOP runoff last month moved his state all the way to #1 this month.
Hell, you thought Costa Rica making it to the final eight of the World Cup was an upset? How about the top spot in this month's Daily Kos Elections Senate Power Rankings going to ... wait for it ...
Mississippi?!
Yup, the shocking come-from-behind (if you believe polling data) primary win for veteran incumbent Republican Sen. Thad Cochran elevated the Magnolia State to the top spot this month. Buoyed by nearly a dozen polls, and a whopping 20 appearances in our daily digest (a record for a single month in the 2014 cycle), Mississippi slid from relative obscurity (it never graced the top 10 in any of the three previous editions) to the head of the class.
And (as Democrats look on with unbridled glee) this debacle is souring things enough that it might not be the last time we see this battle in the top 10.
All in all, there was a ton of movement this month. Head past the fold to see all the changes.
As always, anyone curious about the rubric used to determine these Daily Kos Elections Senate Power Rankings can see the description at the close of this piece. There is one new wrinkle, and a small one at that: the employment of a method to break any ties that exist in the rankings. You can see it at the end of the rankings if you are interested. The end result was that instead of having a bunch of races tied throughout the rankings, the only tie that remained was for 27th place, and that was only because Massachusetts and Delaware had never notched a point the in the rankings to date.
The two themes we discussed last month behaved, when all was said and done, almost exactly as we expected them to when we talked about them in June. Trend one, for those who don't remember, was a three-month trend of seeing more and more races going completely unsung, earning zero points under the criteria. I noted that I expected that to change as we came closer to the election, because of the elevated interest in all things electoral (especially on the polling front). And indeed, after having a dozen races unranked last month, there were only eight races this month that failed to notch a single point. Pollsters, for example, even looked at Jim Inhofe's race in Oklahoma (the primary, at least, which he won in a walk) and Jim Risch's general election U.S. Senate race in Idaho (bonus points if you can name his Democratic opponent without looking it up).
The one enduring theme, as it has been since the outset, has been the so-called "primary effect." Yet again, we see that having a primary elevated your position (as evidenced by the meteoric leap by Mississippi), and we see that having a distant primary leads to temporarily diminished interest.
This led to only one state with an unfinished primary making the cut for the Power Rankings: Alaska. It also led to the brief exit from the rankings of what many would argue is the most critical state in determining the Senate balance of power this fall: Louisiana, which dropped out of the top ten for the first time. Other future primary states that slid out of the top 10 were New Hampshire and Michigan, which also are out of the Power Rankings for the first time in the cycle.
In total, there were 18 states that managed to receive at least one point for the month of June, while failing to crack the top ten. They were (in order from closest to the top 10 on down): New Hampshire (Shaheen—26 points); Minnesota (Franken—24 points); Michigan (OPEN SEAT—24 points); Louisiana (Landrieu—24 points); Oregon (Merkley—17 points); Virginia (Warner—12 points); Kansas (Roberts—10 points); South Dakota (OPEN SEAT—10 points); Hawaii (Schatz (8 points); South Carolina "A" (Graham—7 points); Idaho (Risch—5 points); West Virginia (OPEN SEAT—5 points); Oklahoma "A" (Inhofe—4 points); Texas (Cornyn—4 points); New Jersey (Booker—4 points); Maine (Collins—4 points); Delaware (Coons—1 point); Massachusetts (Markey—1 point)
Now that the "also receiving votes" states have been dispensed with (college football fans will catch the reference), here are the top 10 states that grace this mid-summer version of the Power Rankings:
#10—KENTUCKY (29 points)—DKE Rating: Leans Republican
(Last Month: 2)
Our first mini-surprise in the Power Rankings is the drop of Kentucky from the runner-up spot to almost outside of the top 10. This can be attributed, most likely, to the "primary effect" in reverse. If the primary season temporarily elevates races as the primary is rushing towards its conclusion, it might also leave a little shade in its wake, as the polling and political communities move on for the moment to other contests. Kentucky is unlikely to dip much further, though: any time a member of the leadership is in political peril, it is an attention grabber. What's more: The Democrats seem to understand that this is a somewhat rare pickup opportunity this cycle, which is why some of the party's heaviest hitters (like Elizabeth Warren) are lending their support to Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes.
#9—MONTANA (29 points)—DKE Rating: Leans Republican
(Last Month: NR)
Montana makes its first appearance in the rankings, likely because of the "primary effect," as well. There were a few polls immediately after the primaries there last month, as if pollsters were getting a feel for if the primary season (both parties had primary challengers, though incumbent Democratic Sen. John Walsh's challenge was incrementally more serious) did anything to change the calculus of the race. It did not: Republican challenger Steve Daines is still the betting favorite over the recently appointed incumbent, making this contest into an effective open seat race, despite Walsh's status as the "incumbent."
#8—COLORADO (30 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: NR)
After a brief exit from the rankings, Colorado returns to the top 10, presumably to stay. It is, pound for pound, the most consistently close race in the nation, with Democratic Sen. Mark Udall's average lead in the polls taken thus far standing at a very tenuous 1.2 percentage points. However, the end of the month was not awesome for Cory Gardner, who probably isn't pleased at all the light and heat generated by the Hobby Lobby decision. The spotlight on reproductive rights is undoubtedly going to resurrect the whole personhood flap for Gardner, whose attempts to defuse that issue have been clumsy, at best.
#7—OKLAHOMA "B" (32 points)—DKE Rating: Safe Republican
(Last month: NR)
Hello, Oklahoma!
And, after this month, in all probability: Goodbye, Oklahoma! After all, this is the first time in the brief history of the Senate Power Rankings that a state which is deemed safe for the incumbent party actually cracked the top 10.
And let's face it: For political observers, this race lost any interest the minute that Oklahoma City metro-based Rep. James Lankford surged at the close and avoided a runoff with state legislator (and temporary GOP media darling) T.W. Shannon. The Democrats will hold a runoff in August to pick Lankford's challenger (state Sen. Connie Johnson would be a narrow favorite there over retiree and perennial candidate Jim Rogers), but the die is pretty well cast on this one. I'd bet all the cash in my pocket that, barring Lankford going full Todd Akin on us, this one is making its only appearance in the Power Rankings this year.
#6—NORTH CAROLINA (33 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: 3—tie)
North Carolina actually dips to its lowest spot in the charts to date, but that doesn't mean there was a total absence of news in the Tar Heel State this month. In fact, in some ways this might have been a pivotal month in this coin-flip of a race. For one thing, there was a subtle but intriguing shift in the polls. The race was polled three times this month, and for the first time in a very long time, the Democratic incumbent (Kay Hagan) led all three polls. In fact, the two most recent polls in the race gave Hagan her biggest leads (five to six points) that she has seen since the race was in its infancy back in the fall of 2013. It is hard to know, however, whether that was an ephemeral boost caused by a relative lack of data points, or if the race is really turning (it is generally a dumb thing to draw firm conclusions from two polls, though many try). However, we did see multiple examples this month of Tillis being a bit of an undisciplined candidate. So perhaps Hagan is merely being blessed by the talents of her opposition. It's not like that hasn't happened in vulnerable Democratic Senate seats over the past couple cycles.
#5—IOWA (39 points)—DKE Rating: Leans Democratic
(Last Month: 3—tie)
Without question, conservative activists in Iowa got their huckleberry in the primary elections held in the Hawkeye State in the beginning of June. And, without a doubt, the early post-primary polls looked quite good for Republican state legislator Joni Ernst, who actually held a brief though narrow edge over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the open-seat battle to replace Democrat Tom Harkin. But, as Laura Clawson explained in a piece just after Super Tuesday, Ernst looks to be cut from a similar cloth as the woman who enthusiastically endorsed her in the final days of the Iowa primary season: former half-term Gov. Sarah Palin. That could be a boon in a primary, but one has to wonder (especially after this week's video revelation) is that is such an asset for the general election.
#4—GEORGIA (39 points)—DKE Rating: Likely Republican
(Last Month: 1)
As the very competitive primary in the Peach State gets smaller and smaller in the rear view mirror, Georgia cedes the top position in the Power Rankings. That said, however, it might be towards the top of the countdown for a while, though we here at DKE are still considering this a "likely" hold for the GOP (because of that cursed general election runoff rule, as much as anything). For one thing, a poll released just yesterday shows that the GOP runoff between veteran Rep. Jack Kingston and businessman David Perdue is surprisingly close. The conventional wisdom had long been that Kingston had consolidated the bulk of the "also-ran" support in the race, and was destined for a fairly comfortable win. But this poll, combined with a Perdue internal poll and (for what it is worth) the absence of any contradictory data from Camp Kingston, has got everyone wondering. We don't have to wonder for long: the runoff is later this month. But, if the runoff winds up being a coin toss? Well, if we learned anything in the last four weeks, it is how acrimonious a closely-fought GOP runoff in the South can become. The GOP still presumably has the upper-hand in stubbornly red-tinted Georgia, but nothing about the current state of play on the GOP side is bad news for Democratic challenger Michelle Nunn, who is marshaling resources and waiting in the wings for an opponent.
#3—ALASKA (43 points)—DKE Rating: Tossup
(Last Month: 5)
Alaska remains this month as the sole state in the Power Rankings to still be awaiting its partisan primaries. Thus, the "primary effect" does not explain the persistence of this contest in the upper echelon of the rankings. Unless, perhaps, one considers that the general election is so dependent on the outcome of next month's GOP primary that it is getting a ton of early attention. Such is likely the case, even if the Democratic dream of drawing famed 2010 loser Joe Miller appears to be fading according to one poll taken last month. No matter the identity of the GOP nominee, Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Begich is stubbornly competitive in nominally hostile territory in Alaska, a state that doesn't elect Democrats terribly often, and often under peculiar circumstances (like legit third party challenges, criminal indictments, and whatnot).
#2—ARKANSAS (43 points)—DKE Rating: Leans Republican
(Last Month: 6)
Not going anywhere. This one may rise, and it may dip, but it is getting harder and harder to fathom an edition of the Power Rankings between now and November that won't have Pryor v. Cotton at or near the top of the board. The race is just so close, and the polling so painfully contradictory, that it is hard to imagine this race not garnering a ton of interest as we head into the heat of the election cycle. Cotton reclaimed a small (but consistent) polling edge this month, but there is a ginormous caveat—every single poll was by a GOP pollster for either the Cotton campaign or affiliated interest group. It's been two months since we've seen a poll from anyone other than a Republican firm or Rasmussen. And this week's intriguing article from U.S. News adds to the mystery. Generally speaking, you don't see "why is the candidate flailing" articles when someone is really rocking the house.
#1—MISSISSIPPI (60 points)—DKE Rating: Safe Republican
(Last Month: NR)
Until the conclusion of the GOP runoff here, we had Mississippi listed under the ranking "Race to watch." This is a designation given to states that could see the general election impacted by a competitive primary season. In the case of the Magnolia State, it was a "race to watch," indeed. And, to the delight of Democratic challenger Travis Childers (a former congressman from the northern tier of the state), this one may not be over yet.
The late June runoff for the GOP nomination in Mississippi was a legitimate shocker, as polls nearly unanimously agreed that upstart tea party favorite Chris McDaniel was about to dispatch longtime veteran Sen. Thad Cochran. Then, Cochran, elevated by a surge in African-American voting in the GOP runoff, pulled off the 51-49 win. And McDaniel, to say nothing of his allies, lost their collective shit. One of his most high-profile supporters, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, is refusing to stand down, and McDaniel is talking about trying to force a new election against Cochran. There is precedent for that in Mississippi, but it is a real longshot. What little general election polling there has been shows that Cochran is not his usual dominant self when paired with Childers, but he still leads by a solid margin. This is, after all, Mississippi. But if the legal fight persists, and it gets nastier than it already has been (if that, indeed, is even possible)? Unlike Oklahoma, this might not be the last time we see Mississippi in the top ten.
THE RUBRIC: Three criteria were used to generate our top 10 list. One is competitiveness. This was done rather easily, utilizing our DKE Senate race ratings. If a race had been designated by the Daily Kos Elections crew as a "toss-up," that netted that race 15 points. If the race was designated as a "lean" D/R race, it was worth 10 points. If the race was designated as a "likely" D/R contest, it was worth five points. Finally, the small handful of "races to watch" netted a mere two points. There were no changes in our rankings this month, save for moving Mississippi and South Carolina "A" out of the "Race to Watch" list after their primaries.
The second criteria is newsworthiness. Some races, for lack of a more elegant way of putting it, have more going on than others. The criteria here was also objective: a Senate race received a single point for every day in which it was mentioned in a Daily Kos Elections Daily Digest. There are always some pretty wide discrepancies here. This month, the runaway leader was Mississippi mentions).
The final criteria is "pollworthiness." Media outlets, campaigns, and polling firms are not going to poll a race for nothing. The more intriguing races are going to get more data points, typically. So, four points were awarded for each poll conducted (primary or general) in a given state's Senate race.
The "tiebreaker", when races have the same number of points accumulated, is as follows: 1) The first tie-breaker is the number of mentions in the month ("newsworthiness"); 2) The second tie-breaker, should their number of mentions also be equal, is that the state that was lower in the rankings in the previous month gets the higher of the rankings among the tied races. If last month was also a tie, it goes back to previous months until the tie is broken.