Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.

9:04 AM PT (David Jarman): CO-Sen: It had to happen at some point, given a race where Democratic incumbent Mark Udall has consistently shown leads of 1-2 points over Republican Rep. Cory Gardner, and given a normal distribution of polling results: a poll from a nonpartisan pollster giving Gardner a small lead. (Gardner has also had leads in a couple Republican-sponsored polls, most recently from Magellan in early June.)

And given that the new poll is from Quinnipiac, it's also not too surprising. (Today's poll puts Gardner ahead 44-42, compared with a 45-44 Udall lead in Quinnipiac's previous poll from late April.) Quinnipiac is still fairly new to polling Colorado, and while their polling of most states is exemplary, they've tended to shoot right of the mark in this state; case in point, in their three 2012 presidential polls of Colorado, their results were Romney +5, Obama +1, and, finally, Romney +1. (The actual margin was Obama +5.)

Nevertheless, it's a reminder that this is (and will probably continue to be) a low-single-digit race and not one to be taken for granted. Udall, of course, knows this, as seen not only in his zealous fundraising but also some moves toward the center, like his announced opposition yesterday to two ballot measures that would limit fracking by giving local governments more control over approval.

9:33 AM PT (David Jarman): MS-Gov: If you're already tired of 2014 polls, we've got 2015 polls! Public Policy Polling threw in a gubernatorial question to their MS-Sen-oriented sample, and the results show this will be a pretty uninteresting race compared with that year's other main events in Louisiana and Kentucky. They find Republican incumbent Phil Bryant easily leading the Dems' biggest name here, AG Mike Hood, 44-33, and Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley 49-26. Neither Hood nor Presley has expressed any interest in running yet. Bryant's approvals are 41/31, so he seems to have avoided any major blowback from his Thad Cochran endorsement in the heated Senate primary.

9:38 AM PT (David Jarman): FL-LG: We don't usually cover Lieutenant Governor picks, but this one is noteworthy: Charlie Crist has chosen Annette Taddeo-Goldstein as his running mate on the Democratic ticket. Taddeo-Goldstein checks a number of important boxes for Crist; she's female, Hispanic, and from the Miami area (while Crist is from the Tampa area), but she's also a good fundraiser and candidate in her own right. (You may remember her from 2008, where she ran a competitive race against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.)

10:02 AM PT (David Jarman): MI-Sen: A minor campaign finance mystery has bubbled up in Michigan: Republican candidate Terri Lynn Land has self-funded to the tune of $3 million, but her financial disclosure statements haven't shown bank accounts or other assets in her control that suggest where that $3 million might have come from.

The apparent answer is that it's from joint accounts held with her husband that weren't disclosed. Contributions from a non-candidate spouse, in general, are subject to contribution limits; money from joint accounts is generally OK, though, but the problem here is that the joint accounts weren't disclosed (which, coming from the person previously in charge of Michigan's campaign finance laws as Secretary of State, is somewhat ironic.)

10:07 AM PT (David Jarman): KS-04: Koch Industries, which is based locally in Wichita, recently endorsed incumbent Mike Pompeo in the KS-04 Republican primary against ex-Rep. Todd Tiahrt, who's trying to recover his old job after giving it up for a losing Senate bid in 2010. With that in mind, it's no surprise that Americans for Prosperity (the main ad spending arm of the Kochtopus) is now putting a significant sum into TV and radio ad buys on Pompeo's behalf. No link to the ad yet, but they're spending $410k on ads before the Aug. 5 primary.

10:15 AM PT (David Jarman): Campaign finance: The Washington Post's Philip Bump has an interesting slice-and-dice of donations to the RGA and DGA, that basically confirms a lot of the conventional wisdom about what giving on each side looks like. The RGA had 396 donors, of whom 65 percent were organizations or corporations. The DGA had 1,586 donors, of whom 58 percent were individuals.

Despite that disparity, most of the RGA's money came from select individuals ($13 mil from individuals, including some familiar last names like Koch, Adelson, and DeVos, vs. $11 mil from orgs), while most of the DGA's money came from organizations ($12.8 from orgs, presumably unions, and only $1 mil from that multitude of individuals). The largest individual contribution to the RGA was $2.5 mil while the largest individual contribution to the DGA was $100k; each individual donor who gave to the RGA gave, on average, 86 times what the average individual donor gave to the DGA.

10:22 AM PT (David Jarman): 2Q Fundraising:

OR-Sen: Monica Wehby (R): $955,000 raised; $647,000 cash-on-hand with $122,000 debt

TN-Sen: Lamar Alexander (R): $868,000 raised, $3.41 million cash-on-hand; Joe Carr (R): $218,000 raised, $442,000 cash-on-hand; George Flinn (R): $7,000 raised plus $1.8 million personal loan, $1.66 million cash-on-hand

10:35 AM PT (David Jarman): Ads:

IA-Sen: VoteVets runs an ad on Bruce Braley's behalf, with a local veteran touting Braley's support for Social Security and biofuels.

KS-Sen: As soon as Pat Roberts said that he's in Kansas "every time he gets an opponent," you knew it would appear in a pro-Milton Wolf ad. That's exactly what Senate Conservatives Fund has done; despite being rather tapped out from playing heavily in MS-Sen, the SCF managed to round up $209,000 for a buy.

NH-Sen, NH-02: Americans for Prosperity is out with two boilerplate attack ads in New Hampshire, hitting Jeanne Shaheen and Ann Kuster on Obamacare. National Journal's Hotline says the combined buy is for $1.3 million.

HI-Gov: It's the least interesting episode of Taxicab Confessions ever: two passengers pile into Neil Abercrombie's iconic taxi (driven by the Governor himself) and get a cheerful guided tour of new building projects around town.

MI-01: Looks like Dan Benishek's taking a page from Monica Wehby with his new ad: the doctor-turned-Rep. appears in scrubs while a local mom touts how he helped her daughter.


EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 06:00:02 AM PDT

  •  WI-AG (4+ / 0-)

    Brad Schimel, the presumptive Republican nominee for Attorney General of Wisconsin, went negative on all three of his Democratic challengers (although Schimel only mentioned Jon Richards by name) by claiming that whoever Democrats nominate would, if elected, only defend laws that he or she politically supports, and Schimel earned a "false" rating from PolitiFact Wisconsin for that claim.

  •  CO-Senate (4+ / 0-)

    Colorado Senate
    Quinnipiac

    Gardner 44%
    Udall 42%

    Now three polls have shown Gardner ahead, Quinnipiac, Gravis, and Magellan.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

  •  CO 2016 Quinnipiac (5+ / 0-)

    Clinton 42 Chrisite 40
    Clinton 44 Bush 40
    Clinton 44 Huckabee 41
    Paul 46 Clinton 43

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 06:37:42 AM PDT

    •  These are pretty good for Clinton (9+ / 0-)

      She's never polled particularly well in Colorado, so it's nice to see her holding leads against most of the GOP field, particularly since this appears to be a Republican-leaning sample based on the gubernatorial and senatorial results.

    •  The West is the one place (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike

      where I don't think Clinton will outperform Obama. Obama generally beat her there in primaries (except with Hispanics), and she's not libertarian the way the West is. She'll outperform Obama in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, though.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 06:59:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She could still though (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoUBears, MichaelNY

        I mean the depending on how you define the West (including UT/WY/MT/ID/etc skews what I'm about to say), she could.  She could probably do better amongst Hipsanics and they should continue to be a growing part of the electorate.  She's not going to excite the Boulder liberals in CO or similar crows in OR/WA, but she could do better in AZ or NM possibly.  

        Especially if she actually tries to win AZ (which I doubt she'll try, but this is the Clintons, they want to win everything).  If she underperoforms CA/OR/WA/CO but still wins all 4, but also pushes AZ to the brink of Dem victory, I'd almost consider that outperforming Obama.

        Many big "if's" in my scenario, I acknowledge.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:12:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  She may very well overperform in CA (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          While Hillary likely won't overperform Obama in the Bay Area, she'll probably hold steady there. Marin County and parts of Contra Costa County will probably feel more threatened by the Republican nominee (they were relatively comfortable with Mitt Romney), which likely cancels their reduced affinity for Clinton. Additionally, outside of Hawaii, Clinton did very well among Asians in the 2008 primary; for instance, despite losing Alameda County, she won what was then Pete Stark's district, and even though Silicon Valley doesn't particularly like her, she won Mike Honda's district on the strength of Asian and Hispanic support.

          Then, I think Hillary will overperform in the parts outside of the Bay Area and certain other sections of the coast that are not especially populous. I think she's especially likely to do better in Los Angeles County, the Inland Empire, and the Central Valley.

        •  Similar crows? (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jorge Harris, Taget, Hamtree, MichaelNY

          Have you gone wildling on us?

          26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:28:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'd hoped the poll of Oregon showing her (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoUBears, MichaelNY

        leading by at least Obama's 2012 margin would put this notion to rest.

        We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

        by James Allen on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:59:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I am willing to put down money (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        on Colorado being at least D+1 PVI in 2016 if Clinton is the nominee.

      •  looking back at the 2008 primaries (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Obama did well in the North west and Midwest while Clinton did well in the southwest.

        http://upload.wikimedia.org/...

        "There are three basic types: the Wills, the Won'ts, and the Can'ts. The Wills accomplish everything, the Won'ts oppose everything, and the Can'ts won't try anything"

        by lordpet8 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 12:08:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  more indication the sample was far too red (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat, MichaelNY

      This is a state that Obama won by 5 even in 2012. Highly unlikely that it would be that close in 2016.

      SSP poster. 45, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:10:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NH 2016 Marist (9+ / 0-)

    Clinton 47, Christie 42
    Clinton 46, Paul 43
    Clinton 47, Bush 42
    Clinton 47, Rubio 42  
    Clinton 48, Walker 39
    Clinton 51 Cruz 38

    http://newscms.nbcnews.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 06:40:41 AM PDT

  •  IA 2016 Marist (6+ / 0-)

    Clinton 44, Christie 43
    Clinton 45, Paul 45
    Clinton 46, Bush 42
    Clinton 49, Rubio 40
    Clinton 50, Walker 37
    49, Cruz 37 Clinton

    http://newscms.nbcnews.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 06:43:06 AM PDT

  •  Rand Paul is strongest GOP Pres 2016 candidate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike

    in both states.   Interesting.

    We want Ted Cruz as the nominee!  He wasn't even polled in CO apparently.

    •  Paulmentum (5+ / 0-)

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 06:48:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm Actually Leaning Towards Paul As The Nominee.. (0+ / 0-)

      ....given his likely strength in IA, NH, and SC giving him strong momentum in the primaries to come.  Hard to imagine he'd pass the Commander in Chief test to become President though.  His foreign policy would endure a level of scrutiny that seems likely to instill major seeds of doubt among swing voters.  Nonetheless, these state polls definitely suggest a greater vulnerability for Hillary than is often appreciated, particularly facing off against GOP candidates as flawed as the ones listed.

      •  I'm hoping he becomes the nominee (17+ / 0-)

        To see the reaction of the neocons alone would be worth it.

        "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

        by Paleo on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:00:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Can Paul win Southern (evangelical) primaries? (6+ / 0-)

        Because if not, I don't see how he can be the nominee.  Especially given how compressed the GOP primary calendar will be in 2016 with their June convention date.  I don't see how Paul is even the 3rd choice in a lot of evangelical-oriented Southern  states.

        IA and NH are nice, but it's not like Paul can blow out Huckabee in IA (and Huck can half-ass NH) and then take over in the South.   I also have no idea how Paul can do anything in the Northeast primaries; I mean it would depend on the field but who wins NY and PA for the GOP primaries right now is a damn mystery to me.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:04:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Feels Like Libertarianism...... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GoUBears, LordMike

          ....is catching fire in the South.  If world events lead to a more hawkish foreign policy posture, that could change, but right now I suspect southern conservatives are as entrenched as anyone in the "take care of America first" mindset.  Couple that with the Chris McDaniel "I'm not gonna do anything for you as Senator" message replacing the pork-barrel politics of yore as the preferred path of Southern Republicans and I think Rand Paul emerges as a standout in the South as much as anywhere else in the country.  Perhaps I'm underestimating the evangelical identity politics that would elevate somebody like Huckabee, but it sure feels like that sort of thing is on the wane even in the South, replaced by war weariness and ferocious resentment towards people on government assistance that bodes well for a guy like Ron Paul.

          •  I don't 100% disagree (3+ / 0-)

            But I think you might be ahead in time...I think the evangelicals still want one of them...or a tea party purist or what not.

            On the other side, I don't think huck runs anyways, so it's a moot point.  I think once Huck is out, someone on the list tacks hard right evangelical and tries to take that role in the primary.  No idea who it is but it seems unlikely it's Paul.  Maybe Jindal tries it, or Rubio.  Both will fail but is failure going to give Paul the South in such a bizarro GOP field...I have no idea.

            I'm still mesmerized how 2012 played out.  Heck, if Mitt Romney were a Baptist then Rick Santorum might have been the nominee...crazy.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:26:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've got a great candidate for ya (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Swamp Cat, MichaelNY
              I think once Huck is out, someone on the list tacks hard right evangelical and tries to take that role in the primary
              Let's all put Ralph Reed bumper stickers on our cars.

              A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

              by Christopher Walker on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:49:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I was astonished when he lost GA-LG (3+ / 0-)

                He seemed like he'd have been a perfect rising star in the late 1990s/early 2000's, but I think he missed his timing helping the GOP win Gov/Sen in 2002, a time when he might have had a better chance.  

                He always worried me a ton, I'm glad he's in political oblivion.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:55:22 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I read an article at that time (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Swamp Cat, MichaelNY

                  that claimed (how authoritatively, I don't know) that the GOP caucus in the Georgia State Senate deliberately scuttled his opportunity because in that state the LG presides over the Senate, and they didn't want to listen to that smug whipper-snapper every day.  

                  A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

                  by Christopher Walker on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 09:07:08 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  He'd have to change his spots quite a bit (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Swamp Cat, MichaelNY

            Things that have seemed minor -- and even attractive to some moderates -- like his sort-of-sometimes support for pot legalization, and civil rights (even for minorities) will be very ripe targets in the primaries. And he seems thin skinned as well. Not a great combination.

      •  Polling this far out from an election is worthl... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Polling this far out from an election is worthless

        At this stage of the game for the 2008 election, John Edwards was sporting a lead in Mississippi, scandal that broke aside, does anyone here really believe he would've been remotely competitive there?

    •  If nothing else... (3+ / 0-)

      Paul comes off more measured than the rest.  

      Christie is a bully/blowhard.  Rubio comes off inexperienced and just kind of empty.  Huckabee a religious nutjob (who I used to find likeable personally, but that's gone).  Bush has the wrong last name and is long forgotten.  Ted Cruz seems like he'll try to impeach Bill Clinton if given the chance.  Etc...

      Paul at least seems like someone I could at least take seriously before he opens his mouth.  The rest I just have no such vibe for.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 06:59:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Any Democrat would do great (20+ / 0-)

        against a Republican who wants to abolish the 1964 Civil Rights Act.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:03:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obviously (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Like I said, he comes off as measured.  He seems smarter than Christie or Rubio.  But I bet if you asked in these polls where each candidate stands on some issues, people would put Paul way closer to moderate than he is.  So it's appearances without scratching the surface that are helping him.

          At the end of the day Paul has no better chance at actually winning than the rest, he just runs closer in some states that we will obviously win, and maybe he picks off a state that the others couldn't.  A 104 electoral college vote loss isn't better than a 120 electoral college vote loss obviously, since winning is all that matters.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:07:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly. (9+ / 0-)

          I'm having trouble finding a GOP I hope doesn't get the nod. Paul polls strongly because the nation doesn't know what his beliefs are. They only hear that he's somewhat of an isolationist, which is appealing to a lot of people.

          Let him be the nominee. I'm sure POC would love to hear his views on Civil Rights. I'm sure Iowa would love to know he voted against the Farm Bill. I'm sure single women would love to hear how he praised the SCOTUS Hobby Lobby decision. I'm sure latinos would love to hear about his vote against Comprehensive Immigration Reform.

          He's got a record, and it's one of a conservative southern Senator from 1958. No way that flies in 2016. His demographic is his father's: angry, younger white males.

          •  The one I'm genuinely worried about? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            John Kasich. I'm not kidding. Kasich is smart and a good pol. I don't think he can make it through the primaries, though.

            •  That's the last guy you should worry about... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, JBraden

              Want to put your mind at ease... find a youtube video of him on the stump. You'll sleep easy after that. Of course, it will be difficult to find said video, since he refuses to go out in public. As soon as he does, his poll numbers drop.

              The problem with Kasich actually running for president is that he would have to actually campaign and make public appearances.  He's just not good at that.

              "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

              by LordMike on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:19:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  this (5+ / 0-)

            although his voting record is more like a reactionary midwestern isolationist from 1958. The South has always been hawkish on foreign policy.

            With his views on the role of government, Paul would get absolutely destroyed among Demosaurs who have been mostly voting GOP for president since 2000. Hillary would crush him in western PA, for example.

            SSP poster. 45, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:15:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Paul puts WV and KY in play <n/t> (0+ / 0-)

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:30:13 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No he doesn't (8+ / 0-)

                Our base in both states is among anti-environmentalists and culture warriors. Unless Hillary repudiates anthropogenic global warming, gun control, and maybe even gay marriage, WV is certainly out and I find KY a very hard sell as well.

                •  I disagree with this (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Moderate Iowa Democrat

                  Paul certainly puts both states back into play.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 09:42:09 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Paul's Gonna Lose His Home State??!?!? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Will the Democrats seriously put up a 2016 Presidential nominee more amenable to Kentucky's interests than Jack Conway was four years ago?  By a comfortable double-digit margin (Paul's margin of difference over Conway)?  I say Paul wins WV and KY by more than 20 points each.

                    •  are you ignoring that (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      ArkDem14, NMLib, MichaelNY, pademocrat

                      2010 was a Republican wave? Any other year and Conway would've been much more competitive, and likely wouldn't have resorted to his hail mary that ended up backfiring.

                      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                      by James Allen on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:15:03 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I Accounted For That..... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        ....but I still don't see how a Democrat on the national ticket has any hopes of winning Kentucky if they support the party platform on emissions reductions that hurts the coal industry....and especially not if their home-state Senator is the Republican challenger.  From what angle could Hillary (or any other generic Democratic nominee) possibly run against Paul in KY and WV that would stick?

                        •  Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the military (0+ / 0-)

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:28:26 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Democrats Have Been Running On Those For Decades.. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            ......and while it's had some traction, it hasn't flipped dark red states to blue.  I suspect the threat that Appalachian voters will perceive Paul to pose against Social Security and Medicare will be more abstract than the threat they perceive Hillary will pose against their coal economy.

                            I don't disagree that a Paul candidacy would likely be a disaster for Republicans and may even yield them fewer electoral votes than John McCain got, but I don't think the heart of coal country is gonna be in play at the Presidential level again in my lifetime.

                          •  There's no more coal left there (0+ / 0-)

                            Coal employs fewer and fewer people and the profitable coal fields are increasingly tapped out. Democrats have the opportunity to offer these people a new way forward, while Republicans can only keep running on the simple appeals to the past. With the pessimistic conditions I just don't see that as a winning message long term.

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                            by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:42:13 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The Coal's Still There...... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            sacman701, MichaelNY

                            .......but its diminished demand and the fewer people needed to extract is has definitely shrunken coal's employment footprint in the region.  Its shrinking relevance has not seemed to have impacted its political relevance, however, judging by recent elections where the heaviest coal counties have shifted from 60% Democratic to 70% Republican in just the last 10 years.  

                            Perhaps if coal continues to be moded out due to the natural gas alternatives and environmental regulations, Democrats can get a fresh start there in time.  I'm doubtful that fresh start will be in the cards as early as 2016 though.

                          •  Some coal still is (0+ / 0-)

                            But many of the most productive fields are largely tapped out. A lot of the cheap-to-access coal has been tapped out the last thirty years, and the problem is that there isn't really a demand for expensive coal right now, and the EPA is only a part of that, the bigger part simply being that oil and natural gas are cheaper. Hell solar energy is quickly becoming cheaper.

                            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                            by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 01:59:30 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Productivity (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            sacman701, ArkDem14

                            Coal mining jobs are much fewer primarily because coal mining requires much less labor per ton than historically.  Appalachian coal production is down primarily because other sources are cheaper to mine.  Yes, to some extent that's because easier to mine coal is gone, but it's also because PRB subbituminous is cheap, and also because more plants have scrubbers and can burn high sulfur coal from other sources.  Demand dropping in the U.S. is a relatively recent phenomenon which started with the recession, and it has been going back up as the gas glut abates.  World demand is up, which has led exports to expand.

                            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                            by benamery21 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 05:27:50 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  Puts in play <> guaranteed HRC win (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I think you're jumping a bit.  Putting something in play means just that, that Paul would actually have to actively campaign in both just to be sure.  

                      Do I think Hillary can get 45% in both against a Paul/Cruz ticket, sure.  Do i think she can win, oh probably not.

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:29:08 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I Think The Magnitude of Paul's Defeat..... (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        sacman701, MichaelNY

                        .....will depend on his level of preparation for the hard questions he's gonna face.  He's conducted himself more effectively (from a PR perspective) as a Senator than I anticipated four years ago, so it's not entirely clear to me he would render himself this generation's Barry Goldwater, which is what I think would be necessary for Hillary or any Democrat to get 45+% against him in WV or KY.  He has the vulnerabilities that could result in a 42-state Democratic landslide, but I could also see him doing no worse than Romney with the combination of a bad political climate for Dems and successfully acquitting himself of his worst vulnerabilities.

                    •  I agree with you (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Paul's job approvals are consistently good where they know him best.

                      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                      by conspiracy on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:15:01 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  He'd sooner put.. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    MS or GA into play. Isolationism doesn't play well in places dependent on the military industrial complex.

            •  She'd probably even beat him (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              in South Louisiana among the cajun electorate.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 09:42:48 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  This I agree with (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Clinton as the nominee puts both AR and LA into play right off the bat. We even have evidence from polling.

                •  Cajuns are sort of economic populists (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, pademocrat

                  They are anti-environmentalist, but it doesn't drive their entire world view nor do they feel particularly threatened by environmentalists, potentially because in recent decades South Louisiana activists and citizens have benefited from alliances with environmentalists that protected wetlands, coastlines, created new coastal preservation projects among other things, so they aren't as rabidly anti-environmentalist as Kentucky and West Virginia are for that reason. They're socially conservative, but it tends to be of the catholic variety, which isn't typically as domineering as protestant evangelicalism.

                  Of course it remains to be seen how Landrieu does with the group this year and how swingy and electorate they still are. How Edwin Edwards does in the southern part of LA-06. He always dominated Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes when he was on the ballot, and against one of these weak Republican candidates from EBR Parish, he should win them by double digits. He should also dominate the district's portions of Pointe Coupee and WBR, and the small portions of West Feliciana and St. Helena. Unlikely he'll be able to get enough votes to outweigh Livingston and the Baton Rouge suburbs though that dominate this district. Still a good barometer for Democratic strength elsewhere in the district. Man, if only Democrats could have recruited a second solid, well-known Democrat. That way between the 6 equally b-list Republicans, the vote might have been split just enough to send 2 Democrats into the runoff.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 01:57:46 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Grassley Voted Against The Farm Bill Too...... (0+ / 0-)

            .....farmers are so fat and happy right now that they don't think they need government anymore.  I don't think Paul's vote against the farm bill will hurt him in Iowa unless the farm economy collapses in the next 18 months and reminds Iowans how propped up they are by the government they despise.

            •  Most people acknowledge that Grassley is likely... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              Most people acknowledge that Grassley is likely serving his last term

              Which means it's likely irrelevant to whether it hurts or not.

              Why are we taking these early polls so seriously, they're mostly worthless this far out except for entertainment.

              •  Grassley sounds like he wants to run again (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Moderate Iowa Democrat

                I'd say grab Vilsack, toss him in the race, and have Clinton and the DSCC make it very clear from the start to Grassley that if he does run again, they are going to put him through hell, and bring up his age and every controversial statement he's made in the past eight years and run his record through the mud. If he decides to stay in, then defeating him will be all the more satisfying.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 01:49:29 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Bringing up his age will backfire (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, JBraden

                  But do bring up every controversial thing he's said over the past 8 years.

                  24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 01:57:43 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I disagree (0+ / 0-)

                    Age is a legitimate criticism. Grassley will be 83 years on election day in 2016; his age is a legitimate criticism, as being a U.S. senator is a demanding job physically and mentally. Heck, Thad Cochran got hit quite successfully on age, and he's only 76. Age, and the fact he's been in D.C. for 36 years are good hits. Run a populist campaign about bringing in fresh blood (Tom Vilsack is 66, so not a spring chicken himself).

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 02:11:57 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  My views on foreign policy/domestic surveilance (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          madmojo, JGibson, Avedee, MichaelNY

          ...are more in line with Rand Paul than Hillary Clinton, but I'd never support Rand because he supports abolishing the Civil Rights Act.

      •  Paul Gets Prickly Quickly (No Pun Intended)..... (4+ / 0-)

        .....as he most prominently proved when he got busted plagiarizing the Wikipedia page of the movie "Gattaca" in his speeches.  Hard to see based on his temperamental response to getting caught on that he'd get through a long campaign without an immature and un-Presidential outburst.

        •  LOL (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer, MichaelNY

          Well look at him against Christie and he probably seems delightful.  

          Whereas then a Rubio or Jindal seems like they'd roll over and play dead when called out on something (..think Paul Ryan looking crestfallen when Biden pointed out Afghanees doin their own security patrol was a GOOD thing, when Ryan tried to make it seem bad).

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:29:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  His Dad looked pretty good too (18+ / 0-)

      At one time. You need to remember the Charlie Pierce rule when dealing with any member of the Paul clan. The first five minutes they sound reasonable. But only the first five minutes. He won't survive the unscripted scrutiny, or the relentless attacks.

    •  I wonder who Libs get this time (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Udestedt, LordMike, MichaelNY

      I doubt Gary Johnson runs again.  Someone who can oiut-Lib Rand Paul, the Republican...tall order.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:32:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Paul/Cruz both would bomb maybe we can ratfuck? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Paul is a walking talking disaster I'd argue he's worse than Cruz he has the whole Southern Avenger, Civil Rights Act, Personhood Amendment, Plagiarize-Gate, and not to mention his crazy father to deal with. He's very thin skinned as well he really caves under the spotlight as we saw with plagiarize gate.

      •  Ratfucking much harder (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        I have no idea how to make it happen outside of open primary states.  There's going to be so many candidates running I don't know how we can triangulate how tearing down one candidate will help specific other ones.

        In open primary states, yeah Dems can go vote for Rand/Ted.  But then Chris McDaniel will file a lawsuit trying to overturn the results in Iowa or NH or wherever.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:38:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Paul is dangerous... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Avedee, Tayya

      He's talking about things that no politician talks about, which allows him to look like an outsider. In silicon valley, he tells Elon Musk that that hippies love him all right, but that big government is attacking his business and hurting his ability to sell cars by mandating dealership agreements. In the inner cities, he talks about drug sentencing reform and sentencing reform in general, which has got to perk up some ears over there.

      He's marketing himself as a "different politician".  The press and the people will eat that up!

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:16:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-LG: Crist choice is Annette Taddeao (16+ / 0-)

    PER CBS Miami. This is about Dade County and Hispanics. Shows you how he's focus on that part of the state like a laser

    24/Health Sci. & Nutrition major/NY-9/NJ-10; Show them how to move in a room full of vultures. -- Shawn Carter

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:12:02 AM PDT

  •  KS-Gov: Dems imported a Beshear veteran (18+ / 0-)

    to help win: http://mycn2.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:31:02 AM PDT

  •  MS 2016 PPP (6+ / 0-)

    Hillary Clinton would make Mississippi more competitive than it's been in recent years, but it doesn't look like she'd have a great chance of actually winning the state. She trails Huckabee 49/42, Bush 47/42, Christie 45/42, and Paul 45/43 in hypothetical contests. She does at least manage a tie with Cruz at 44.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:41:11 AM PDT

  •  Interesting look at incumbents by Sabato (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/...

    I don't know how applicable this is...but I really don't see 2014 being a Republican wave, so it's hard for me to see them taking down all of our vulnerable incumbents. I used to be much more pessimistic about our chances in the Senate, but I'm starting to think we are in better circumstances.

    I mean I can understand the media saying Democrats are going to have a tough time, but everything I'm reading is so unbelievably hyperbolic compared to the trustworthy data we have. I think Kay Hagan's ability to survive an onslaught of Republican ads and is still on top (although by a small margin) is an indication that once our game goes up after the summer, we will be in a much better position than overly-bored prognosticators are saying.

  •  CO-Sen, thanks for the background on Quinnipac (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    especially when it comes to Colorado.  I've had a hard time fully relying on Quinnipac because their polling is all over the place.  Soon we should be seeing PPP's poll on this race and I think that will give us a better idea of where Udall and Hickenlooper stand.  I had a hard time believing Hickenlooper trails Beauprez by one point.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 09:30:15 AM PDT

  •  The Q poll seems like an outlier (0+ / 0-)

    Given that it had Hickenlooper down by six points.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 09:35:12 AM PDT

  •  Name recognition of 2016 Pres. candidates (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145
    Former Arkansas governor and current talk show host Mike Huckabee is arguably in a slightly better position image-wise among the national adult population than other potential Republican presidential candidates. His +12 net favorable rating edges out Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's +9 for the highest among Republican candidates. Huckabee's 54% familiarity score trails those for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (65%) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (65%), but is above the 52% average for the 11 Republicans measured in the poll. Christie's and Bush's net favorable ratings are among the lowest.
    Two of the five Democrats included in the poll have net negative favorable ratings -- Vice President Joe Biden and Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley. O'Malley is the least known potential candidate in the survey, with 83% of Americans not having an opinion of him. Biden's net negative favorable rating could be more troubling in terms of his 2016 prospects, as 80% of Americans have an opinion of him, second only to Clinton among the 16 candidates in the poll.
    Americans are slightly more likely to have a positive than negative view of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (21% favorable, 17% unfavorable) and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (27% favorable, 24% unfavorable). Cuomo is the better known of those two, but still has below average familiarity.
    Link

    Walker has the lowest name recognition out of all the Republicans with only 34% familiar with him. Among the Dems Cuomo has the highest name recognition outside Clinton/Biden with 51%, Warren only has 38% familiar with her. Strangely Biden has only about 80% familiar with him which seems kind of low for being the VP it's even lower than Clinton's which is at 91%.

  •  KY-Sen: Lib Party has 4K signatures (5+ / 0-)

    and have a month to meet their goal of 8K.  Need 5K to qualify for the ballot: https://twitter.com/...

    The Libertarian Party Chair, Ken Moellman, ran for Treasurer in 2011 and got 4.6%.  In other words, more than 37K voters were gay for Moellman.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:03:43 AM PDT

  •  Gubernatorial Race Ratings update, interactive map (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Right now I see us gaining Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania with Kansas and Michigan strong possibilities, while Republicans gain Arkansas and possibly Illinois.

    •  What a trade-off (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      We start at maybe something like:

      PA in exchange for AR (net great for us)

      ME in exchange for IL (net bad for us)

      FL/MI/KS all without having any other issues of our own.

      So many positives could come from this, we really could win all 7.  What a boon that would be.  Sorry to IL if we lost you, but PA and FL defintely need Dem governors more urgently.

      For pickups, obviously my prefernece is to get PA/FL/MI in that order and everything else is gravy, but oh boy is this setting up nicely.  

      And we're still in the game (though certainly not favored) in WI and OH too.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:44:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The five I want to win, really (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan

        I also included Virginia in this list, and we already won that.

        These states to me represent the bellwethers of national politics where the GOP currently holds governorships.

        It'd be nice to elect some Democratic governors and have them get to work on implementing Obamacare and getting the economy moving again.

      •  I don't think (5+ / 0-)

        Arkansas is toast yet. I still think Mike Ross can turn it around.

        15, live in VA-04 (Forbes), lifelong resident of Isle of Wight County and home of the Smithfield Ham. Lover of history, government, and politics. Loyal reader of DKE. Somewhere between moderate and progressive Democrat.

        by 757hokiedem on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:05:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Me either (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I'm not even sure Ross needs to turn anything around, he might well be tied or slightly ahead for all I know.  But in looking at Stephen's list, AR/IL were the only 2 tossups, so they were what I used in my tradeoff scenario.

          The playing fieild couldn't realistically be looking any better right now, except maybe OH.  WI was a longshot and we're not going to win that without Walker hanging himself.

          And Kansas, freaking Kansas?

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:08:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  OR-Sen: so while Wehby raised more (3+ / 0-)

    in Q2 than in previous quarters, so did Merkley, and she actually fell further behind. In previous quarters she raised about 60% of what he did. In this quarter she raised a little over 50% of what he did.

    In 2008 Gordon Smith raised double what Merkley did: link

    13.3 million to 6.5 million.

    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

    by James Allen on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:30:52 AM PDT

  •  Senate rankings (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    willisorgeln, lordpet8, Tayya, MichaelNY

    Tilt D - AK, CO, IA, NC
    Tilt R - AR, KY, LA
    Lean D - MI
    Lean R - GA
    Likely D - MN, NH, OR, VA
    Likely R - MT, SD, WV

    Democrats could easily lose all four seats I currently have tilting their way.

    However, you can still make persuasive arguments that all the Republican tilting races might yet produce a positive result.

    I do think we are looking at a best case scenario of a four seat net loss at least for now. Worst case is probably a 9 seat loss.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:12:01 AM PDT

  •  That Abercombie ad is cringeworthy (0+ / 0-)

    He needs to get a new ad team seriously.

  •  GA Sen runoff Insider Advantage: Kingston 46-41 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:42:51 AM PDT

  •  MS AG: Minor correction it's Jim Hood (4+ / 0-)

    Mike was the previous AG

    "There are three basic types: the Wills, the Won'ts, and the Can'ts. The Wills accomplish everything, the Won'ts oppose everything, and the Can'ts won't try anything"

    by lordpet8 on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:45:29 AM PDT

  •  Cuomo creates Women’s Equality Party to run on (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hamtree, MichaelNY
    Gov. Cuomo is creating a new ballot ballot line focused on women’s issues, sources said Wednesday.

    The new Women’s Equality Party will be announced Thursday in the city at an event featuring Cuomo’s Lt. Gov. candidate Kathleen  Hochul, former state Democratic Party Chairwoman Judith Hope and an array of women leaders, one source said.

    Link
  •   Davis Money Haul Less Than Advertised (0+ / 0-)
    A day before fundraising reports were made public in the Texas governor’s race, the campaign of Democrat Wendy Davis boasted that the Fort Worth senator had outraised Republican Greg Abbott over the last few months and hauled in $13.1 million for their fall battle.

    The actual reports, published online Wednesday morning, told a different story.

    Instead of $13.1 million in cash on hand as claimed, the reports Davis and her allies filed show there was actually $12.8 million in the bank at the end of June, a difference of about $300,000.

    Meanwhile, the $11.2 million Davis claims she raised over the latest period — an amount she said was larger than the $11.1 million Abbott raised — contains over half a million dollars in non-cash “in-kind” donations and counts contributions that could benefit other Democratic candidates.

    Link
  •  MI-3: Chamber all in for Ellis over Amash (3+ / 0-)
    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed GOP Rep. Justin Amash’s primary challenger in Michigan’s 3rd District.

    The group’s support could translate into television airtime for Brian Ellis, a former East Grand Rapids School Trustee, before the Aug. 5 primary. The primary has become one of this cycle’s top battles inside the GOP, with the party’s libertarian wing backing Amash and national business interests boosting Ellis.

    “The U.S. Chamber is proud to endorse Brian Ellis’ congressional campaign to represent Michigan’s 3rd congressional district. Both candidates in the primary sought our endorsement, and the choice in support of Ellis on pro-growth issues was clear,” U.S. Chamber Senior Vice President and National Political Director Rob Engstrom said in a Thursday statement.

    Link

    The ads have already been brutal against Amash now he has to deal with even more $$.

    •  What a waste (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I guess the chmaber feels as if it has nothing to lose since they've never had Amash's support, anyway.  But, they are throwing their money down a hole.  It's pretty clear Ellis' attacks have not only not hurt Amash, but may have backfired on Ellis.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:42:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CO-St. House: Dem incumbents in key races (11+ / 0-)

    all raising a lot more money than challengers: http://coloradopols.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 02:24:18 PM PDT

    •  This is fantastic (4+ / 0-)

      I've been slowly working on a chart for the Colorado legislature, and reports like this are allowing me to move a bunch of my potentially competitive races to Safe after seeing how underfunded the Republican is.

      The only seat I'm worried about is HD-59 (McLachlan) which Obama won by about 4.  As such, it's the reddest seat we hold in the chamber.  It's a rematch between McLachlan and the previous 1-term GOP incumbent.  McLachlan beat him 51-49 in 2012.

      Everything else looks really good though.  In particular, our two Colorado Springs seats (tricky in midterms) look pretty safe with those numbers.

      Republicans look like they are whiffing on the Jefferson County seats, just like they are in the state Senate.

  •  Where did Terri Lynn Land's $3M come from? (5+ / 0-)
    Republican U.S. Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land has given her own campaign nearly $3 million this year and last, but nowhere in her federal financial disclosure form has she listed any bank accounts or other assets in her control worth that much.

    Her campaign says it’s an oversight, claiming Land — who for two terms as Michigan’s secretary of state oversaw the enforcement of election laws — inadvertently failed to disclose a joint account she has with her husband, Dan Hibma.

    But it still leaves unanswered questions about the source of the funds. And it raises questions about if such a transfer — if from her husband’s assets — violates the spirit of the campaign contribution law.

    “If a noncandidate spouse gives money to a candidate spouse to influence that candidate’s election, it’s subject to contribution limit,” said Paul Ryan, senior counsel with the Washington, D.C.-based Campaign Legal Center. “This raises a red flag for me. A candidate suddenly coming into possession of several million dollars raises questions for me.”

    Link
  •  NY-11: Grimm office understaffed: (3+ / 0-)

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 03:14:33 PM PDT

  •  KS-Gov: The rise of the Dole Republicans (12+ / 0-)

    Here's a great article on how they hope to start to take back the state: http://www.politico.com/...

    Their goal now is to unseat Brownback to check the nutty legislature.  One of them endorsing Paul Davis is ex-Senate Prez Steve Morris of SW Kansas.  He narrowly lost the primary and intimated that Brownback worked against him.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 05:03:51 PM PDT

    •  This is heartening (5+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 05:06:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Encouraging (7+ / 0-)

      This could be the start of a major shift in Kansas. Not only are so many respected lawmakers endorsing a full-fledged Democrat, but they're doing it as a major fuck-you to the entire Tea Party. I could easily see many of these guys switching parties and becoming moderate Democrats. If that happens en masse, the state instantly becomes competitive not only in governor's races, but even senate and house races if it's a choice between a moderate Dem and a radical Rep.

      My general theory on KS is that it's a lot like HI or RI right now. It's a pure one-party state right now only because the second party is totally uncompetitive. Thus, instead of the single-party becoming uber-radical, it absorbs the moderates and gives them a voice. But what happens when you kick out the moderates....? Ask Kansas Republicans in five years.

      •  Yeah, this is awesome (6+ / 0-)

        In no other state have we seen this kind of full-fledged revolt against the Tea Party -- probably because most other states don't have a sizable moderate wing of the Republican Party, or whatever passes for one these days.

        Kansas is red, sure, but it's arguably not red enough to be governed as a one-party Republican state as it is now -- especially not with how far-right, personally abrasive, and politically uncouth Gov. Brownback is.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 05:52:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  few states have been as solidly Republican (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Jacob1145, JBraden

          as long as Kansas. I think that's one reason why.

          We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

          by James Allen on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 06:59:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  While (4+ / 0-)

            While Kansas is solidly red at the national level, as far as the governor's office is concerned, it seems as if they trade off between the two parties fairly regularly.  It seems to be Republican out of tradition at the federal level, but does not seem to swear off electing Democratic governors.  I think Kansas politics are largely misunderstood.

            Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

            by MetroGnome on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:03:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  sure, but (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              it's not ancestrally Democratic like many Republican states are, where there is less of a Republican establishment going back generations. And while you're right, it is still one of the most consistently Republican states by most measures.

              We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

              by James Allen on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 10:37:13 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Still (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I think one has the make the disctinction between ancestrally Republican and ancestrally conservative, however much each of those words has changed/realigned.  Kansas has a progressive streak to it that even a lot of ancestrally Democratic states don't.

                Maybe it's just me, but I don't see Kansas like I do Utah, for instance, or any of the Southern states.  Sure, it took a hard right turn post-80's, but I think the culture and history of the Plains has the ability to be quite a bit more mutable than some other Republican areas of the country, which is really quite impressive when you consider how fairly stable the demographics are.  Many of these other states only become more competitive through in-migration from other parts of the country, but I think you can actually convince existing Plains people that there is more than one option.

                Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

                by MetroGnome on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:30:46 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

                  But how stable demographically is Kansas? Hasn't there been some measurable immigration there of Hispanics and Asians?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:40:51 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  RElative (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Demographically stable (and much whiter) relative to other states I was alluding to (i.e. Georgia) with are trending much more quickly, politically, because of very significant in-migration.

                    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

                    by MetroGnome on Fri Jul 18, 2014 at 03:07:56 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Yes, you did say "fairly stable" (0+ / 0-)

                      Point taken. But I do wonder what the percentage rate of Latino and Asian population increase has been in recent decades, even if total numbers are small. Is there an easy way to find census stats from 2000 and 2010 to compare? I would think there would be, but it wasn't clear from my first page of results, and I'm too tired to research this further right now.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Fri Jul 18, 2014 at 03:24:50 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Well (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        Wiki has a good comparison chart between '90 and 2010, but it doesn't have non-Hispanic whites in the previous column. Still, non-Hispanic whites make up 77% of the population, which is still rough, but the state's minority population is growing.

                        But not all minorities swing our way. Wichita, for instance, has a pretty large Vietnamese population that immigrated after the war. As I recall, they tend to lean quite conservative, much like the Cubans in Florida. That could change, of course, as the newer generation takes hold.

    •  It's so ironic (7+ / 0-)

      Dole was always considered a conservative Republican, and he was sometimes stridently partisan, yet he believed in government and was happy to work together with Democrats for things he considered to be in the national interest. Now, the Republican Party has become so extremist, Dole would be considered a "Rino" by the hordes of fanatics among the GOP base.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:58:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  When Bob Dole was running for president (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        He visited Barry Goldwater in February 1996, when Dole was being challenged in the Republican primary by Pat Buchanan. Dole cracked a joke about how he and Goldwater, once considered conservative standard-bearers, were now the liberals of the party (Goldwater was a libertarian Republican and never a culture warrior).

      •  But he let cultural issues alone, like Goldwater. (0+ / 0-)

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:06:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I thought he was pro-life. No? nt (0+ / 0-)

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:09:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Some data (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, Christopher Walker

            Dole's Switch on Abortion Leads Quickly to Furor on G.O.P. Right

            Published: December 19, 1995

            Senator Bob Dole's statement on Sunday that he would no longer support an unconditional ban on abortion prompted a wave of anger today from the Republican right and escalated an already fierce ideological war in the party.

            It also gave Mr. Dole's Republican rivals an opportunity to accuse him of sacrificing principle for political expedience.

            What issue hasn't Dole shifted on?" asked Malcolm S. Forbes, a competitor for the Republican Presidential nomination.

            On Sunday, Mr. Dole, the leading candidate for the nomination, said on NBC's "Meet the Press" program that while he at one time supported a Constitutional Amendment to ban abortion unconditionally, "I would not do it again." He called himself "pro-life," but said he would make exceptions to save a pregnant woman's life or in cases of rape or incest.

            That's a far cry from Goldwater's forthright pro-choice position.
            By the 1980s, with Ronald Reagan as president and the growing involvement of the religious right in conservative politics, Goldwater's libertarian views on personal issues were revealed; he believed that they were an integral part of true conservatism. Goldwater viewed abortion as a matter of personal choice, not intended for government intervention.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:17:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Coakley, Baker in "dead heat" in Boston Globe poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, Jacob1145
    Democrat Martha Coakley has seen her edge over Republican Charlie Baker nearly erased in the last several weeks and is now virtually tied with Baker in a potential general-election matchup, according to a new Boston Globe poll.

    Coakley leads Baker 39 percent to 36 percent in a hypothetical November contest. The 3-point edge is within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Four weeks ago, Coakley held a nine-point advantage over Baker. The gap between the two is now the narrowest it has been in the seven weeks since the Globe began polling.

    Link

    There seems to be too many undecideds it's not like Coakley or Baker are unknowns they should be polling in the 40s.

  •  MI-Gov: Schauer closed in on Snyder - EPIC-MRA (8+ / 0-)

    Another July poll, another poll showing Schauer having pulled forward into a statistical tie with Rick Snyder:

    LANSING — The Michigan governor’s race has tightened by six points, while the gap has widened by three points in the race for the U.S. Senate, according to a new statewide poll from EPIC-MRA of Lansing.

    Results from the poll, released first to the Free Press, WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and their statewide media partners, show Republican Gov. Rick Snyder now leading Democratic challenger Mark Schauer 46%-43%. In May, the EPIC-MRA poll showed Snyder leading Schauer by 9 points, 47%-38%.

    ...

    The results for the governor’s race, which are inside the margin of error, appear to show undecided voters breaking in favor of Schauer. The percentage of voters who said they were undecided about the race or wouldn’t say whom they would support was 11% in July, down from 15% in May.

    Porn said the Democratic base appears to be backing Schauer more as the election draws closer.

    What's amazing is that Michiganders are more up on the economy than they've been, and Snyder actually slightly improving his favorables.  I feel very comfortable in now saying that Snyder is in some big trouble.  This poll even says that Schauer's name recognition actually slipped a bit since they're last poll.  This is statistical noise, of course, but it shows it's not even about him becoming better know, Dems are starting to coalesce and independents have not gotten off the fence to back Schauer.

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:49:06 PM PDT

    •  Oops (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Jacob1145, ChadmanFL

      Meant to  that independents haven't gotten off the fence to back Snyder given that's he's the well known incumbent.  He should be starting to pull away and he's slipping.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:56:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I can never get over the fact that EPIC-MRA (9+ / 0-)

      is that polling outfit run by a guy named Bernie Porn.

    •  Sample (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen, sacman701

      The sample is Republican heavy, to boot.  I see Gownger reporting the sample is 41 Dem/37 GOP.  The Dem number is just about right, but the GOP is way too high for Michigan.  Dems have a good 8 to 10 points advantage on Republicans in party indentification, which has held ridiculously steady since at least 2006.  

      So, these numbers are actually more favorable to Snyder than they probably really are.  I really want to see some general election polls for the Congressional districts.  We might be talking a small wave in Michigan, here.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:51:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What could be driving that? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If it's really the potholes, I feel sorry for Michiganders' tires.

        •  A little bit of everything (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, anshmishra

          The roads I think we'll find was a turning point.  But, it's just a whole slew of bad news relating to state government.  Currently, Aramark - a Philly-based food service company - is having been found to committed a whole host of violations in our prisons including sex between inmates and workers and maggots in prison food.  Snyder was so quick to privatize food service in prisons, that it's coming back to bite him in the ass and people are horrified.  80 employees of the company have been banned from prisons grounds.

          Then you had a weeks-long intensive investigation of our charter schools by the Detroit Free Press showing their oversight to be grossly lacking.  This all the while Snyder has been trying to expand the number of charter schools even more than he already has, and even against the wishes of some Republicans in the legislature.

          The economy is steadily getting better - but that started way back in the last year of the Granholm administration.  So, he's not even getting much credit for that.  In fact, many people see his business tax cuts as hurting students and seniors since he used them to pay for the cuts.

          This man has talked a good game.  In fact, I'd argue that he's been better than any other newly elected GOP governor in talking a moderate game.  But since his policies have been little different than that of tea party governors, people simply aren't buying it.  It's bad, because you still have a contingent of right-tilting independents who badly want to believe him - and who blame Granholm for everything short of the crucifixion - but also don't want to continue looking like fools supporting this guy no matter how smiley and nice and business-friendly he tries to come across.

          Still, these right-tilting independents (socially liberal(ish), fiscally conservative) have yet to give up the ghost.  And, if Schauer has any trouble, it will be relating to these types, because he's legitimately center-left on most issues, not some DINO playing a leftist's game.  He's particularly too the left on issues of the environment.  He's done pretty well on carving out slivers of the center, but he's probably going to have to do a better job to win.

          Lastly, on the issue of style, and I've been saying thfor months, but Schauer has to find a way to come off as more positive and optimistic than he does.  Michigan has been angry for over a decade, now.  Michigan knows it sucks and its quality of life has been crattering.  Simply yelling at Michigan's government about how shitty it is is not a winning strategy, or if it is, it'll only allow him to squeak to victory.  He has to provide some kind of solid hope narrative if he wants a decivise win.

          Say what you will about Snyder, but his "relentless positive action" talking point was and still is a huge selling point for his candidacy, even when the action has been anything but positive.

          Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

          by MetroGnome on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 11:21:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Excellent, good movement here too. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 08:56:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-Sen: Peters expands lead over Land - EPIC-MRA (10+ / 0-)

    In the senate race, Gary Peters is now up nine over Terri Lynn Land:

    In the race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, the new poll shows U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, a Bloomfield Township Democrat, leading former Michigan Secretary of State Republican Terri Lynn Land, by 9 points, 45%-36%. The May EPIC-MRA survey showed Peters leading Land 44%-38%

    ...

    In the U.S. Senate race, the gender gap is even wider, with Peters and Land tied 42%-42% among male voters, but Peters leading Land 47%-31% among women.

    “The whole discussion of how Democrats are making better decisions in terms of women’s health” appears to be impacting both races, Porn said.

    ...

    The only curious thing is that polls from left to right continue to show this race with an unusually high number of undecideds.  Though, this bodes well for Peters since Land is almost universally known in the state.  Peters has the ability when he really hits air to absolutely stomp Land, particularly as she continues to struggle.

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Thu Jul 17, 2014 at 07:53:12 PM PDT

  •  Jeb Bush (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Chachy, Christopher Walker

    raising private equity funds:

    As other Republicans travel the country laying the groundwork for 2016 presidential campaigns, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is raising private-equity funds for oil and gas ventures.

    Bush, 61, whose family made much of its fortune in Texas oil, has teamed with former Credit Suisse Group AG and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankers to create an investment firm based in Coral Gables, Florida, according to regulatory filings disclosed last month.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/...

    Doesn't really sound like the move of a guy intending to run for president anytime soon.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site