We all know that we can trust most electoral projections about as far as we could throw Chris Matthew's bathtub as we approach the 2014 Midterms, because it all ultimately depends on who will or won't show up at the polls, still it might do us some good to know where our vulnerabilities lie, and where our opposition may be weak.
The question of course, is, is that even a realistic possibility? So answers, and perhaps more questions, over the flip.
This second map from 270toWin shows more of the marginal breakdowns for Congress and as is shown in the lower left there are actually 15 seats within the current GOP majority that are only "likely" to go their way. If there are any gains to be had, it would be in the "leaning" and "likely" Republican zone so those races are key to taking back Control of the House.
Let's start with the Toss Up Districts:
AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Incumbent
AZ-02: Ron Barber (D) Incumbent
CA-52: Scott Peters (D) Incumbent
CO-06: Mike Coffman (R) Incumbent
IA-03: Tom Lantham (R) Incumbent-Open
NY-19: Chris Gibsom (R) Incumbent
NY-21: William Owens (D) Incumbent-Open
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D) Incumbent
FL-26: Joe Garcia (D) Incumbent
It seems to me that these should be priority seats, anything that is currently a toss-up we should put a decent effort into swinging our way, then we address the issue of fortifying our current ground and then move on to offensive turf.
More from CenterForPolitics.org
Vulnerable Democratic Seats.
Although current projections are that turnout in the 2014 Midterms may be one of the lowest on record, we may gain some traction on the issues such as Hobby Lobby which is a strong motivator not just be Democrats but also Women Independents, while the House plan to Sue the President remains dramatically unpopular. With the House's inability to move on the Immigration Crisis, their inability to fix the VA backlog, their inability to pass dozens of vital bills on Energy, on [Real Actual] Jobs or just about anything that matters to the American People - we should be able to argue that things need to dramatically change. We need a Government that Functions, that Works for the People and does the people's bidding not the bidding of the Koch Brothers and the Family Research Council.
We should be tracking these races. All of them. We should be doing profiles both on the Democrats running and their strengths as well as the weaknesses of the Republican opponents. Then assigning teams of local Kossacks, or other similar supportive groups, to identify town hall events taking place within these districts during the August recess, schedule to attend and film those town halls, hammer these reps with questions about their stances on Hobby Lobby [some sample questions here], Suing the President, IRSghazi and the dozens of issues we discuss here everyday, challenge them on their positions then compile as much usable footage as possible with the look toward the viral.
The fact is that we don't need anymore of what Republicans have wrought.
It's about time we started strategizing on exactly how, and where, we need to apply the pressure, attention, focus and funds to change things in Washington. We may not get every seat we need, but there's no excuse for not keeping and getting every single one that we can.
Yes, it's a iong shot. A very long shot, but we won't get anywhere near it if we don't even bother to take aim.