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We love to bash Republicans around here, but we're pretty much political Junkies and know a good deal more about what they're doing to our democracy and country than most of the general public.  But even if you're a member of the uninformed public that neglects your responsibility to be an informed citizen, you just can't avoid realizing just how awful these people really are.

Of course if you're uninformed enough, you fall into the false equivalence of they're all the same, and you buy into the meme of a pox on both your houses, so some of this discontent rubs off on the Democrats.

From a new ABC poll

I'll try to build a little table with some of the results.

Here's the results for Republicans

                               Favorable            unfavorable                        
All Adults                       35                       60

Registered Voters            38                       60

Democrats                     14                       85

Republicans                    79                       21

Independents                 31                       61

Male                             38                       59

Female                          33                       62

<$50K                          32                       63

$50K-$100K                   38                      56

>$100K                        39                       61

Liberal                          16                       80

Moderate                     32                       66

Conservative                 59                      38

Hard to find anyone who is satisfied with the dysfunctional party the Oligarchs have built.  But what about the Dems?
                               Favorable            unfavorable                        
All Adults                       49                       46

Registered Voters            51                       46

Democrats                     85                       14

Republicans                    15                       85

Independents                 41                       50

Male                             44                       52

Female                          54                       40

<$50K                          51                       44

$50K-$100K                   46                      48

>$100K                        53                       46

Liberal                          73                       24

Moderate                     52                        45

Conservative                28                        70

Now these aren't the types of numbers that Democrats can jump up and down over, but they're sure a lot better than the Republicans.  The Dems do better than the Republicans in almost every category.  I was pretty surprised to see those numbers broke down by income.  Even the rich are turning against the radicalized Republicans.

So this is a ray of hope for Nov.  The question becomes, how many of these people will show up at the polls, and how many will once again vote against their own interests.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (149+ / 0-)
  •  We Know This but That's Not What Matters. (40+ / 0-)

    They weren't wildly popular in 2010 when they gave us a defeat that was historic for both parties.

    Our problem is the government isn't popular, citizenship itself isn't popular either. After most of a lifetime of both parties being conservative and both taking from the masses to give to the rich, whatever lack of clarity the people have on the details, they've got America's number on the big picture, and they are unfortunately doing what humans historically do to sociopaths, they're shunning.

    It's unfortunate because we don't live in hunter gatherer clans any more where shunning is a death sentence to misbehavors, it's a blank check enabling them to take over and wreck everything.

    THe rightwing won big with small numbers last time and they could do it again this time.

    What we need to see are these low numbers for "Republicans" contrasted with turnout energy numbers among our constituents, and to be working the small number of messages and GOTV tactics that will get our small numbers to edge out their small numbers this fall.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 07:26:59 AM PDT

    •  now don't rain on my parade :) (16+ / 0-)

      I fully agree with you, especially about the GOTV efforts.  In fact, I really think we need a real effort to redo how we do GOTV.  There's some good stuff out there about the psychology of getting people to vote, and it doesn't include just calling them up and asking them to vote.  We've got the people on our side, we just aren't getting them to the polls.

      Besides, sometimes it's hard to find silver linings on some of these clouds, so I thought I'd offer a small ray of sunshine. :)

    •  Credit where credit is due (9+ / 0-)

      Republicans have worked very hard for decades to make sure government is unpopular.  

      They've used it to funnel wealth to corporations and the 1%, to provide a giant, subsidized slide for jobs to be easily outsourced, ensured that government regulations can't be enforced by systematically underfunding the agencies in charge, eroded worker rights, and destroyed most of the social safety net for people while bailing out corporations and financial institutions.

      They've made sure that justice is not only unequal, but have rubbed that fact in our faces by imposing tiny fines for criminal acts by corporations and imposing maximum sentences for humans after relentless prosecution.  They've turned corporations into not just people, but super-duper people with extra special rights and privileges, but none of the responsibilities.

      They've done everything in their power to destroy the Middle Class that they hate by wage degradation, forcing the need for 2 incomes to support a family, union busting, elimination of pension and other benefits, and failing to enforce worker health and safety regulations.  They've made sure that all the profit from the ever increasing productivity of workers ends up only in the pockets of corporate execs and shareholders rather than shared with employees who create that profit.

      They've taken the American Dream and not only crapped on it, but blamed the citizens for being lazy and unworthy of the fruits of their own labor.  They've ensured that Leona Hemsley's statement "taxes are only for the little people" becomes reality as the rich pay little, if anything, and the burden shifts to the working class or is borrowed.

      I have said many times that Democrats see only today, but Republicans play long ball - strategizing decades ahead to achieve their goals.  We only see that strategy when we look back and marvel at how complex it all was.

      There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

      by Puddytat on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 10:53:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Credit where due (0+ / 0-)

        Puddy I couldn't agree more with you. Their plan has been in place for decades. They are even taking over the states with their long game plan. You did a magnificent job explaining how diabolical the Republicans actually are.

    •  And high turnout won't come from (5+ / 0-)

      touting past performance, which the populace has mixed feelings about, or pointing at the Republican bogeyman.

      It will ONLY come from offering truly transformative, compelling change in the areas all D constituencies care about, stipulated and guaranteed in writing in a Contract for Democracy. The promise is to enact those "compelling" populist changes IF the voters give D's both chambers. And the items would include things like a schedule of significant ongoing minimum wage increases and a COLA rider at the backend, Equal Pay, greater protections for reproductive rand voting rights, a financial transaction tax, stronger financial reform, restoration of the Bill of Rights, a substantial green jobs program, sustainable infrastructure jobs program, path to citizenship, etc....

      Just as if you were a business owner and wanted to outsell the competition...

      Give them an offer they can't refuse and see them beat down the polling station doors...

      I've never left a blank space on a ballot... but I will not vote for someone [who vows] to spy on me. I will not do it. - dclawyer06

      Trust, but verify. - Reagan
      Vote, but Occupy. - commonmass

      by Words In Action on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 11:41:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, if Dem pols committed to the agenda (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Lucy2009, unfangus, Bluehawk

        you've outlined, they'd probably win a landslide victory, even in the midterms.

        But our pols won't advocate a populist agenda - God forbid, we might expect them to act on that commitment.

        No, they'll do what they always do - work to get just a few more votes than their opponent, counting on that portion of the Democratic base that always votes blue, regardless of job performance.

        Just HOW do we get our representatives to move in a populist direction without threatening electoral consequences for their willful failure to do so? (This is the issue routinely avoided by party loyalists at the GOS.)

        by WisePiper on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 01:38:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Sorry you are wrong (0+ / 0-)

        While the many Americans may agree that the GOP has gone off the deep end, they don't ipso facto subscribe to progressive ideas. A strong centrist party dedicated to financial transparency, not higher taxes is what the public wants.

  •  If most everyone hates the Republicans, why (23+ / 0-)

    does Nate Silver give them 60% odds of taking the Senate? Why are so many of the horrid Governors tied or leading in their races? Why isn't Scott Walker and Sam Brownback and Rick Scott 20 points behind in the polls?

    I'll never understand how people who hate government, women, children, LGBT, people of color, and poor people keep getting elected. What the hell is wrong with us?

    “Poverty doesn’t only consist of being hungry for bread, but rather it is a tremendous hunger for human dignity.” Mother Teresa

    by theKgirls on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 07:40:05 AM PDT

    •  gerrymandered districts (13+ / 0-)

      -You want to change the system, run for office.

      by Deep Texan on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 07:45:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'll have to confess my ignorance here... (13+ / 0-)

        How does gerrymandered districts affect the election for Senators and governors? I know that Dems got a million plus more votes in House races yet still lost the House, but I thought Senators and governors were elected through popular vote...

        And as unpopular as Republicans are reported to be, they keep winning elections and ruining lives

        “Poverty doesn’t only consist of being hungry for bread, but rather it is a tremendous hunger for human dignity.” Mother Teresa

        by theKgirls on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 07:52:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It doesn't. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Bring the Lions, Puddytat, JanL

          The reality may be that all of these polls aren't really useful in determining voter behavior. Think about how little regard you might have for your own Dem congresspeople, if that's the case. Yet you will (?) still vote for them over the alternative, every time. That's what's going on over there, too. It's a relative measure in the minds of most voters, not one that will cause them to rethink their allegiances. I mean, what rational person is still pulling the "R" lever, unless they are actually bigoted, or actually in the 1%? One who thinks the "D" guy/gal is worse. Even someone who might agree with the liberal POV on issue after issue will still feel icky about voting for the candidate who espouses that side of those issues, and too many refuse to switch. Mainly, I would argue, because they can't/don't spend the time necessary to think about the larger pictures at play during election time. It's much easier and safer to simply keep voting the same way than to force oneself to reorient one's political compass, especially when you've spent (most likely) your entire adult life voting that way.

          "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

          by bryduck on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:54:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The seats that are in play (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Bring the Lions, Reepicheep, Puddytat

          in this cycle are red seats.  Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska.

          Politicians - "You can't be a pimp and a prostitute too"

          by fladem on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 09:26:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The States Are Red (6+ / 0-)

          Red states that normally and nominally are safe Republican seats.  Unless it's 2006 and the Bush Administration has hit its nadir and the Democrats pick up a bunch of Senate seats in a pleasant surprise.

          Flash forward 6 years later- now- and the Republicans are more motivated to take back those seats than "newbie" voters are to keep them out.  In general.

          Remember....the Republican base has a ceiling, but they're reliable.  You can rely on the old bitter folks to come out for McConnell, for instance.  Less reliable are the mass of non-voters who probably don't like Mitch but have trouble being politically connected.

          In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man may be king.

          by Bring the Lions on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 09:46:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You're right (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JanL, Danali, sidnora

          They can't gerrymander state-wide offices.  For that, they use corporate media to propagandize the voters and piles of money to fool the voters.  Then, they pray for a low turnout election to grease the skids for GOP victory.

          There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

          by Puddytat on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 10:55:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  2014 is a bad map (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Puddytat, Desert Rose

            just because of which states are up this year. We've known forever that it was going  to be a huge haul to hang onto the Senate in 2012 and 2014, two equally bad maps for Democrat. However. there's virtually no way the Republicans can hold onto a Senate majority in 2016 barring some earth-shaking event. The 2016 map is horrendous for THEM.

            Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it.

            by anastasia p on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 12:42:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Especially if they take the Senate this year (0+ / 0-)

              and try to put us all into indentured servitude.

              It is ridiculous to pretend that firing teachers based on student test scores, starting charter schools, giving out vouchers or implementing merit pay will overcome the challenges facing a child living in poverty. -Jersey Jazzman

              by Desert Rose on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 12:56:05 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  The path to victory is populism (0+ / 0-)

              Always has been.

              Sadly, far too many Democrats promote a pro-corporate agenda to appeal to Republicans.  The don't realize that voters, when choosing between a REAL Republican and a phony one will vote for the real Republican every time.

              Populism is popular.  And making good on populist promises is even better.

              There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

              by Puddytat on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 12:56:44 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  There's also the issue . . . (0+ / 0-)

            . . . of how disheartened their constituents are.  Democrats far more disheartened by the fact that even when they win (voter turnout, ACA) they lose (gerrymandered districts, corporate insurance industry mechanism).  It keeps getting harder to sell the argument that "this time will be different."

      •  Senatorial elections are statewide, and cannot be (5+ / 0-)

        Gerrymandered.  Same with governors's races.  People judge people, that is individual candidates differently from groups such as political parties.  It may be important foe Dems to try to identify the issues or behavior that leads to the party favorability breakdown and then try to identify the positives of these to the individual candidates.  I suggest that corporate friendly conduct, serial disingenuousness and radically mean and vicious statements about minority groups might be in play here.  Do the Dems have the brains and  fortitude to do the research and act on it?  Except for the Elizabeth Warren branch of the party, probably not.

        Patriotism may be the last refuge of scoundrels, but religion is assuredly the first.

        by StrayCat on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:02:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  hmmm (0+ / 0-)

        from what i read, nate says gerrymandering is a problem for close races but democratic base, young people etc, not turning out for midterm elections is more the problem.

        the solution to this is, after one of our presidential year romps when Dems have a lock on congress, to make election day a national holiday.

        (might have to wait another decade or so for another chance like we had after the debacle that was the GWB presidency.)

    •  Their propaganda trumps our truth (21+ / 0-)

      There has to be some really deep psychology going on in people who consistently agree with Dems on policy, and even say they like Dems better than Repubs, then go into the voting booth and vote R.

      The Oligarchs have built a very sophisticated propaganda network of TV networks, radio stations, fake think tanks, internet sites...  And we now have other news media who think that journalism is simply reporting 2 sides of a story.  All the fake scandals and corruption reporting and constant attacks on the "liberal" media, leaves people with a hidden bad gut feeling about Dems.  I think way too many people vote their gut rather than their head.

      •  That's what MESSAGING is all about (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        And except during presidential years it's something we really, really, really don't do very well.

        We have this psychological psychosis that REFUSES to nationalize the midterm elections while the Republicans, who delight in doing so make the midterms a lark through the park.

        We are, often, our own worst enemies.

        What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

        by equern on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 09:11:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Disagree (5+ / 0-)

          I don't think it's "messaging" so much as having an outlet, or outlets, to get the message out.

          There is no comparison to the right wing media network.  MSNBC is nice, but really now.  Thousands of radio stations all over the country carrying the same crank hosts and local ones.  All pounding away the same right wing talking points and keeping the base keyed into elections, national and local.

          And I'm not sure that there is this "psychological psychosis" that refuses to nationalize the midterms.  What I do see is a MSM that constantly loves to talk about how Democrats nationwide want to run away from the president- whether it's Obama or Clinton.  Now, they also did it for Bush, but come on- there was a REASON for that.

          It goes back to the first point- the right has a media propaganda network for their base.  I don't want a propaganda network but a media one the same size would go a long ways to rectifying this.

          In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man may be king.

          by Bring the Lions on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 10:02:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What a CONVENIENT cop out. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            No. The difference is that the Republicans are willing to play a different game. They are willing to DELIBERATELY lie to gain votes, while we stand on our pedestal and point fingers.

            With the possible exceptions of Harry Reid, Elizabeth Warren, and occasionally President Obama, few of the Democrats are PUGNACIOUS enough to really get in the ring and fight.

            Alison Grimes, maybe too.

            Nope. It's not the media, it's the MESSAGE.

            There's still enough social media outlets out there on OUR side to counter the faux-MSM of the right. But one social media outlet that is becoming more and more difficult to gain access to are the comments section of various outlets. In the 2012 cycle it was pretty easy to get on a newspaper site and get the truth out. Now, unless you're a subscriber, that's tougher. I fear that could have a huge impact on the elections this year.

            What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

            by equern on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 01:01:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Say What? (0+ / 0-)

              No "cop out" here.

              I don't want to lie.  I don't want the politicians I support to lie.  And as far as I'm concerned, liberals don't NEED to lie.  We have the facts on our side.

              The Republicans/conservatives CAN lie because they have an alternate media universe where no one contests the lie.

              And if you look at a lot of these clowns on the right, they get to lie and never get called on it because they can exist in this entire right wing bubble.  One that not only doesn't exist on the left, but that we DON'T want to have.  Really.

              Oh, I don't know about the newspaper comment sections.  What I've seen is two-fold.  One is being more restrictive to stop trolls and spammers (now you have to post with your real name, for instance).  The other is that they've stopped "giving the product away" and yes, may charge to access the paper (though I've not seen this consistently in the comments section).  But really....there are so many outlets and avenues on the Internet, I really think that isn't a big deal.

              In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man may be king.

              by Bring the Lions on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 06:02:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I am *not* advocating lying! (0+ / 0-)

                It's the old marketing canard, you don't sell the steak, you sell the sizzle. We STINK selling sizzle. It isn't a LIE, there's sizzle to a steak, but HOW you talk about it really does matter. Republicans make it a patriotic duty to savor every speck of the sizzle. Democrats give a chemical analysis of it, and issue a position paper. And then wonder why nobody pays attention.

                It isn't a question of lying. It's a question of MARKETING.

                And we stink. Just like Pepe Le Peu.

                Only it's not funny, it's tragic, because we're so high and mighty on being the saints.

                Wanna be a saint? Join a clergy.  Wanna be in political office? You gotta know how to throw a good punch.

                What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

                by equern on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 09:16:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I realize that was slightly unfair. (0+ / 0-)

                I really don't mean to hurt your feelings, get your dander up, or mean to reduce in any way your hopes that we win and win big in November.

                It just gives me heartache knowing that we DO have the truth, and yet time and time, voter after voter votes for the other guy.

                It isn't JUST their propaganda schemes. It's that they've got a better GAME when it comes to the game of politics.

                For example, what's our "theme" for 2014?

                Obamacare or bust?

                Give us your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to be free...?

                We do kind of have one good one:

                Keep your bibles out of my vagina! (a BIT crude, but it gets the point across)

                What is our rallying cry?

                Why should you go out of your way to vote for a Democrat in November?

                It is August. That is when those decisions are made. I want our people to be thinking of such things, because it will make a difference come November. We have to convince a lot of people that don't otherwise vote D that it's really in their best interest to do so.

                And you can't just stand on the pedestal of "the truth"; Americans have an immense distaste for preachers who don't have a bible in their hand. You need to SELL THEM on the truth.

                That is how you win.

                And that's the truth.

                What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

                by equern on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 10:03:44 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  No Harm (0+ / 0-)

                  My feelings aren't hurt.  Now run down one of my favorite TV shows or movies and there'd be trouble.

                  Seriously....first of all, I'm a political person who always votes.  And I can't abide the Republican party as it currently exists (I didn't like them much before, either).  So voting and voting for the Democrats is a no-brainer.

                  I don't need a theme, and I honestly don't think that other voters do either.  Really.

                  It's not about TV commercials or any of that stuff.  That's all at the margins.  Instead it's about-

                  -are you defining yourself or is the other side doing it?

                  -what do you want and can you get it done?

                  For one thing, the right has a giant propaganda media network that feeds the base and infects others.  We don't.

                  For another, the right is effectively trying to get the powerful more of what they already have, and they use the propaganda to convince the masses that it's in their interest too.  That's how they always seem to get their way, and are so effective at tripping up the other side when they "control" all the levers of power (2009-2010).

                  Unlike you and I, some people need to be on the side of the "winners."  Some people need to automatically be superior to somebody else (the poor). Some people need to be aligned with the powers-that-be, even at their own expense.

                  I don't know how to reach those people, or if you even can.  But I can see how you get enough of everyone else.

                  "Do you like to be ripped off?"  You want the Top 1% to have MORE tax cuts?  That's a rip off.  You (Mr and Mrs Non-Top 1%) are paying for that, or getting less for what you pay for.

                  You want to pay for tanks that no one uses while there aren't enough books at your school?  Really?

                  You want to have Americans go broke paying for their health care so that executives can get a 6 figure bonus?

                  You want to cut food stamps and Social Security so that hedge fund managers pay less in taxes (percentage wise) than you do?

                  The framing is easy.  Getting the elected politicians to follow through without being seduced or killed by lobbying dollars is another.

                  In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man may be king.

                  by Bring the Lions on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 03:06:38 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Because we are defending the class of '08, (7+ / 0-)

      Which was a very good year for democrats.  Of the 36 seats up for grabs, 21 are held by democrats.  Most of the more vulnerable republican seats were taken in '08, while we are defending seats in some very red states.  The retirements of Johnson in South Dakota and Rockefeller in West VIrginia pretty much hand those very red seats to the republicans, so we start out down two.  We have very few pickup opportunities (McConnell's seat in Kentucky might be our best shot), while we are playing defense in Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina, Iowa, and Arkansas.

      I'd recommend Sam Wang ( over Nate Silver - he's a bit less sensationalist, and has a slightly better record of accuracy.  He responds to the latest 538 prognostication here.

      •  Thanks for the link to Sam Wang (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JanL, Chas 981

        He does a good job and I enjoy reading his analysis.

      •  Sam Wong (0+ / 0-)

        missed the '04 election by a mile.  I am not really convinced of his accuracy.

        Politicians - "You can't be a pimp and a prostitute too"

        by fladem on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 09:27:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  His errors in '04 are more than made up for, (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, JanL, Matt Z

          2004 was the extremely early days of poll aggregation ( didn't even exist yet - was pretty much the only other game in town).  His methodology has hugely improved since then, and he nailed '08 and '12.  I wouldn't advocate using him instead of other sources - there's room in my heart for more than one statistician - but I think he's an excellent resource, and definitely my favorite and most trusted.

          FiveThirtyEight has lost a lot of respect from me for its association with climate change denialism.  They've also been steadily moving away from a 'just-the-numbers' approach to a fuzzier methodology that is more in line with CW.

          •  I don't think any of these methodologies (0+ / 0-)

            are one damn bit better.  Bottom line he missed an election that if you just averaged polls you wouldn't have.

            Politicians - "You can't be a pimp and a prostitute too"

            by fladem on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 12:08:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  .......uh... (0+ / 0-)

              You might want to actually read his FAQ.

              What was different about this analysis in 2008 compared with 2004?

              In 2008, three major changes were made.

              First, the Meta-Analysis relies entirely on the well-established principle that the median of multiple state polls is an excellent predictor of actual voter behavior. On Election Eve 2004, a calculation based on this principle made a correct prediction of the electoral vote outcome. Additional assumptions were unnecessary and unwarranted. In 2008 the calculation is kept simple – and therefore reliable.

        •  And he was more accurate than Silver in 2012. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          Sinbad on dodging sniper fire in Bosnia - "What kind of president would say, 'Hey, man, I can't go 'cause I might get shot so I'm going to send my wife...oh, and take a guitar player and a comedian with you.'"

          by askew on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 11:11:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  That's a good Wang post, though I'd (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        characterize it as responding to the reactions to 538's post, rather than to the post itself, which he says is sound numerically. They generally make very similar predictions, and both have great track records compared to almost any other method of prognostication.

        "I've always admired your tart honesty and ability to be personally offended by broad social trends." -Principal Skinner.

        by cardinal on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 09:54:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  As far as the senate goes, most seats up this (6+ / 0-)

      year are in red states in the south and the mountain west, so republicans start out with a leg up in those states.

      As to the general question of why truly abhorrent republicans keep getting elected, I have a few theories based on the voting behavior of a friend who passed away a four years ago.  J was in her late fifties, divorced, failing health, and had an hourly wage job that left her struggling financially.  She also was a daughter of the deep south; Athens area Georgia.

      J consistently voted republican.  First of all, if any candidate expressed even marginal support for abortion rights, she felt compelled by her God to not vote for them.  Secondly, she was not evolving as quickly as the rest of the country on acceptance of gay rights.  Lastly (and I only found this out after knowing her for several years) she was a registered republican and thought that legally, that obligated her to vote for republicans!

      While the tide has turned on social issues, there are still enough religiously motivated poor white voters, who combined with country club anti-taxers (ala Mitt Romney) can give the Rs around 45% in the polls.  Add in a heaping dose of ignorance (I'm registered republican, I have to vote republican) and the fact that democratic leaning voters seem to need the extra motivation of a presidential election to win, and you get the republican candidates a majority of the votes cast in non-presidential year elections.

    •  Because of the "Non-Partisan" commercials. (5+ / 0-)

      When was the last time you saw a campaign ad that highlighted the word Republican? NEVER anymore.

      Same thing with bumperstickers, yard signs, etc etc etc.

      And our spineless Dems never point this out. Why not stick a finger in their face and ask them why they don't proudly state they are Republicans? Because the brand is toxic, and our pols don't have the balls to point it out.

      WTF!?!?!?! When did I move to the Republic of Gilead?!

      by IARXPHD on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:17:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm going to order a few of the (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        "Republicans for Voldemort" bumper stickers, and share them.  And put them on my vehicles near the "Carter" and "Nunn" stickers (in GA).  You know, just to be fair and balanced.  It might even confuse some troglodytes into voting for Carter and Nunn...

    •  Only sporadic polling (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      theKgirls, pollwatcher, pamelabrown

      If you read his analysis, a lot of it comes down to, well there isn't enough reliable polling (and what there is is many times being drowned out by crappy republican robopolls like in AR) so we're going to make our predictions based on the "fundamentals" which obviously favor republicans in an off year election.  For example, in Alaska there has been almost no polling to speak of, and what there has been has been mostly robo polls, which Silver doesn't seem to think much of.  Therefore, a pretty red state in an off year election, he pegs it at 50-50 due to the "fundamentals".  I, however, would believe Begich has a much better chance than 50-50 to win.  What polling there has been has been favorable, and he's a fairly well liked incumbent.  As the more traditional, "gold-standard" polling starts picking up after about Labor Day, we will get a better picture and I think things will start moving in our favor because of it.

    •  And our people can't be bothered to vote in (5+ / 0-)

      non-presidential elections. That makes me so damn pissed off. Sure, its partially the voter suppression stuff, but I think a lot of it is pure laziness and distraction.
      If Facebook/Twitter etc etc disappeared tomorrow, we'd increase the collective IQ by 10%.

      WTF!?!?!?! When did I move to the Republic of Gilead?!

      by IARXPHD on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:19:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, we are following the (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        theKgirls, IARXPHD, JanL

        really bad path the Whig Party blazed in the mid-19th Century. They only really came together as an actual organizing entity for Presidential elections/years, letting things go to hell in each interim. Spoiler Alert! It didn't work out too well for them . . .

        "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

        by bryduck on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:58:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Because... (6+ / 0-)

        (a) the Republican base is much more passionate about its hate than moderates are about tolerance;

         (b) the economy still sucks, partly due to GOP obstructionism and partly due to Dem fecklessness and fealty to third-way nonsolutions;

         (c) Democratic messaging is all but nonexistent, and what's out there is all about identity politics and not about broad-based economic issues;

         (d) most voters aren't policy wonks, and aren't going to take the time to tease out the increasingly imperceptible differences between the parties on economic issues;

         (e) most liberals are exceedingly naive about how much non-activist Americans really care about issues like torture and surveillance.

        The gerrymandering doesn't help, but it's a symptom -- the Dems all but threw the 2010 midterms to put themselves in this position.

      "Le ciel est bleu, l'enfer est rouge."

      by Buzzer on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:23:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Because being 'not them' isn't a path to success. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bryduck, theKgirls

      "...So the world might be mended"

      by Cofcos on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:52:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Everyone doesn't vote (0+ / 0-)
  •  At some point (5+ / 0-)

    even the rich start to understand that voting for insane people is bad for business.  

  •  Chuckles Todd implied that he has similar nos. (6+ / 0-)

    that he will present tomorrow.

  •  And still the prediction is they'll take back (7+ / 0-)

    the Senate.

    USA, home of the masochistic electorate.

    Of the more than 1,800 it murdered, the IDF said it killed "900 terrorists" in Gaza. Add that to their long list of lies.

    by pajoly on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:04:38 AM PDT

  •  I'm sour on favorability polls (5+ / 0-)

    I can never tell if what I'm looking at is disagreement or frustration over performance.  In other words, are Republicans increasingly shamed of their politics or are they increasingly contemptuous of the leadership?

  •  Does anyone find it interesting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    that the economic makeup is about the same unfavorable for those under 50k as those over 100k.

    I find it quite shocking those 50-100k find less unfavorable than 100k.

    •  Maybe (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AJayne, ClevelandAttorney, JanL

      The poor realize the Republicans are out to get them, the rich realize that shutting down the government and threatening to default on the debt isn't helping their bottom line, and the middle class are too busy keeping track of their neighbors Face Book page to know what's going on around them?

      •  Yes but those are the people (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        really slammed by GOP policies. The poor don't have much to take; for the rich it doesn't matter. The ones in the middle pay the freight.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it.

        by anastasia p on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 12:44:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That could be linked to education level, too. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Typically, those with a high school diploma or GED lean more (R), while those with advanced degrees lean more (D)...

      •  In this poll, HS or less (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        didn't like anybody.  Unfavorables were higher than favorables for both parties, while every other education group had higher favorables for Dems than unfavorables, Opposite for R's.

      •  People making $50,000-$100,000 (0+ / 0-)

        typically have much more than high school diploma or GED. They generally make much less than $50,000 unless they are car-stealing, probably arsonist and high school dropout Darrell Issa.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it.

        by anastasia p on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 12:45:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  U-Shaped curve (0+ / 0-)

        There is a U-shaped curved when correlating education level with political leanings. Democrats tend to do well with people who haven't graduated from high school and with college graduates and higher--especially among those with advanced degrees. Republicans tend to do well among high school graduates and among those with some college but not a four-year degree.

      •  That was my thinking as well (0+ / 0-)

        It's telling that MSNBC News has constant commercials for luxury cars and investment strategies.  If that top income bracket in the poll had been broken down further, say, $100K - $1M for one bracket and a separate bracket for over $1M, I think we'd see the upper middle bracket with higher unfavorable rating for Republicans, and the top bracket with lower unfavorable ratings, because that upper middle is the bracket of a lot of graduate school educated professionals, who tend to lean progressive.

        The poor can feel directly how the Repubs are screwing them over, the educated professionals lean progressive (the Ivory Tower Liberals) and tend to be news savvy and read about how the Repubs are screwing people over.  It's the white middle class where the Tea Party comes from.  So those results in the poll didn't surprise me at all.

  •  I think mid income feel abandoned by both parties (4+ / 0-)

    The only thing we have to fear is fear itself - FDR. Obama Nation. -6.13 -6.15

    by ecostar on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:15:24 AM PDT

  •  Ah, so THAT's why the (R) party wants us to (7+ / 0-)

    focus on Ebola and be scared to death of it coming to the U.S. -- They've already been proven less popular than cockroaches, but maybe they can out-poll Ebola if they raise enough fuss about it?

  •  These polls always give me hope (7+ / 0-)

    but they should ask one follow up question...

    "Are you going to vote to re-elect your congressman next election?"

    People always hate congress, the parties or the government in the abstract.  But give them the choice and they'll send their particular rep back to DC.

  •  GOP unpopularity is like a check (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AJayne, sunbro, JanL

    But the only way to take advantage of it is to cash it. And the only way to cash it is to turn out the Democratic base in November.

    The Democratic establishment spends way too much money and time on media, trying to win an argument it has already won. That time and money needs to go to GOTV.

  •  Well Ebola is 90%+/- Lethal (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    One should ponder the lethality of Teabagger fueled GOP policies  be to the poor and the ever shrinking middle class.

    I want 1 less Tiny Coffin, Why Don't You? Support The President's Gun Violence Plan.

    by JML9999 on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:42:56 AM PDT

  •  I would really love to have a convo with (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollwatcher, dougymi, JanL

    the ~15% of Liberal Democrats who have a favorable view of the republican party. Just to find how how one reaches such a conclusion.

    "...So the world might be mended"

    by Cofcos on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:51:04 AM PDT

  •  16% of A"liberals" have a favorable (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bryduck, pollwatcher, starduster

    view of the republican Party? Who are these people?

    So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard

    by illinifan17 on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 08:56:41 AM PDT

  •  Nice, but it says something about us (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisVoter, pollwatcher, JanL

    if they're so hated and we're just barely at parity in the polls.

    One would think that with such a disparity between the favorables of the parties that we should be much further ahead.

    And we don't have much time to figure out how to capitalize on that sentiment. Campaigns are already in the process of stockpiling materials for the traditional Labor Day campaign kickoff.

    I fear that we have become a party that has found great electoral success targeting certain demographics to cobble together a reliable coalition for presidential contests, but falls flat on its face when it comes to midterms and the sexiness of voting has ebbed.

    Ironically, talk of impeachment may be just what we need to prod some of those who might feel threatened by an Obama impeachment and who normally sit on the sidelines for mid-term elections come out and vote.

    It just might be the one thing that saves his and our hides.

    What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

    by equern on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 09:08:44 AM PDT

    •  We don't know what the issues will be in Oct. (0+ / 0-)

      Impeachment or presidential lawsuits might very well be what everyone is talking about in Oct.  Since the news cycle is so short now, it's really hard to predict what gut feelings these voters will be voting on.

      •  Rasmussen's latest generic R +4 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        It's not the media, it's the MESSAGE.

        And before you jump at the fact that it's Rasmussen, please note (as a pollwatcher, you're probably well aware) Rasmussen THIS CYCLE has shown a consistent D tilt as compared to other polls.

        What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

        by equern on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 11:34:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  looks like a real outlier (0+ / 0-)

          I don't have a problem with Rasmussen's lately, but that last generic looks like a real outlier.  A 6 point shift in one week?!  I really doubt it.

          I'll bet a good chunk of change that the numbers are almost even with the next 2 reports.

          CNN, Pew, and even FOX have Dems up 2+.

          •  I know...latest +R poll was back in early June (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

   Fox, and then it was a RV poll, not an LV one. The last LV poll to show a +R result was all the way back in October.

            I know it's only early August, but what concerns me MOST about these R leaning polls is the effect they can have on funding. Everyone likes to back a winner.

            What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

            by equern on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 12:38:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats are too complacent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Republicans too, but Democrats are worse

    "The oppressors most powerful weapon is the mind of the oppressed." - Stephen Biko

    by gjohnsit on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 09:13:31 AM PDT

  •  There's one disturbing takeaway (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JanL, happymisanthropy

    Liberals hate Republicans more intensely than they love Democrats.

    I wonder why.

    Almost everything you do will seem insignificant, but it is most important that you do it.

    by The Termite on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 10:12:09 AM PDT

  •  The income levels are the most interesting to me (0+ / 0-)

    Those making under 50k and over $100k  are big fans of Democrats and think very little good about the Republicans. They have some traction really only among the middle class (and presumably some small, very wealthy conservative corner of the upper classes and some similarly small percentage of the lower class that is probably rather white, male and racist).

    Coming Soon -- to an Internet connection near you:

    by FischFry on Tue Aug 05, 2014 at 10:36:49 AM PDT

  •  How can 16 percent of liberals (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    have a favorable opinion of Republicans? That simply does not compute.

    Another point:  
    Based on these numbers, Democrats should be winning the generic ballot question by pollsters by much more than polls currently show....(oddly enough, despite all of the talk about how favorable the political climate is for Republicans this year, Democrats actually are ahead of Republicans by one point on the generic ballot question, based on the current Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll average; but still, Democrats should be much farther ahead on the generic ballot question if the numbers in this poll are to be believed)


  •  So what's the problem? (0+ / 0-)

    Gerrymandering and the Senate is undemocratic.

    Idaho gets as many Senators as CA.

  •  I don't think even Republicans like Republicans (0+ / 0-)

    They're pissed that Obama isn't being impeached and that his socialist plot of Obamacare hasn't been foiled.

    No one's happy about the current state of governance. The Republicans are just crossing their fingers that they win back the Senate this year and that somehow someway they can prevent President Hillary from being sworn in 2017.  

  •  What The Numbers Say To Me ... (0+ / 0-)

    is that when a skunk walks through the room, nobody smells good.

  •  It's not a popularity contest (0+ / 0-)

    It's a contest to see who can control the dialogue and the Republican media machine has that down pat. I have long been of the opinion that Republicans are content to chant the party line hence the easy control of the dialogue. Democrat voters, IMHO, fall into two categories: Progressives like most of the members of DKos and we think too much and challenge too much to chant party lines and the machine democrats who show up on Election Day and do as they are told but really have no engagement other than that. AFA Democrat politicians, again two camps the vile neo libs who are really DINOs and are sitting in some off the most powerful seats in the country (looking at you POTUS and HRC) and the true progressives who are willing to speak for the people.  But, in the end it is who controls the dialogue and right now the RWNJs and their ilk are running the show.

    "Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." MLK, Jr.

    by KimmieInIN on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 01:34:19 PM PDT

  •  Republicans Popularity ? (0+ / 0-)

    21 % of republicans do not like republicans.

    SO if they lose 11 % of their voters the GOP is in big trouble.

    Nate a toss up, That also means that they can win states

    A synthesizer can create any instrument made and others that have not be created yet.

    by RSGmusic on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 02:59:54 PM PDT

  •  Too Generic (0+ / 0-)

    The public may dislike the generic Republican Party, but you will not find a line on the ballot for "generic Republican Party". What you WILL find is the name of an individual candidate.

    The approval rating for Congress as a whole has been in the single digits for years now, below used-car salesman, approaching child molesters, and, yes, within shouting distance of Ebola. Nonetheless, the approval rating for each individual Congresscritter in her or his own district is usually in the 51-65% range. That's why the most successful party in America is the Incumbent Party, which in a really, really bad year still wins 85% of the seats it runs for.

  •  Too many people I know are not only (0+ / 0-)

    uninformed but also refuse to vote!  It's their own necks that they are cutting.

  •  I prefer Ebola; (0+ / 0-)

    it can be controlled. An ignorant hate filled congress knows nothing of control.

    No country can be both ignorant and free - Thomas Jefferson

    by fjb on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 05:05:45 PM PDT

  •  I prefer Ebola; (0+ / 0-)

    it can be controlled. An ignorant hate filled congress knows nothing of control.

    No country can be both ignorant and free - Thomas Jefferson

    by fjb on Wed Aug 06, 2014 at 05:09:27 PM PDT

  •  I've read about why the rich may be against GOP (0+ / 0-)

    They tend to be among the most informed voters, and they often vote their values instead of their pocketbook. (And after all, they don't need to vote from a place of financial insecurity -- which is why the Kochs confuse me. How much more $ do they think they need?!!! They couldn't possibly spend all of their wealth. Maybe they have still found a way to feel financially insecure, despite their vast wealth.)

    That first sentence I wrote fits with my experience. I have a lot of 1% friends who vote Democrat and hate GOP. And I have a lot of lower middle-class childhood friends who love GOP and hate Dems.

  •  They'll Still (0+ / 0-)

    get the votes because they're dedicated liars, masters of disinformation, information, delusions, distortions and dirty tricks. The sad part about it is that so many Americans are ignorant enough to believe them and fail to understand the conservative agenda, which is fascist/oligarchic/theocratic (choose one or more; they all apply) in nature.

  •  Our lives are not either/or choices. (0+ / 0-)

    By far I favor Democrats' goals.  Republicans have used fear and prejudice to divide the nation.  The tea party is one of the unintended consequences of their divisiveness biting them on the @$$.  And people who don't bother to listen to the opposition's arguments remain uniformed primarily because it's easier.
    Republicans in general give corporations everything they ask for.  Ship jobs overseas and keep your tax breaks?  Sure.  Import foreign workers to America to keep profit margins high?  Sure.  Except that last item is a big part of Comprehensive Immigration Reform.  A bi-partisan bill, but primarily a Democratic bill.  Along with the amnesty, the bill contains huge increases in temporary worker visas.  Half of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics graduates are working in fields other than those for which they received their degrees.  One reason for this is the importation of foreign workers for S.T.E.M. jobs.  It's a lie that America doesn't produce enough S.T.E.M. graduates.
    Yes, it is very sad for the women and children trying to get to the U.S.  They have a hard life, primarily due to U.S. political/military/corporate interference in their home countries.  However, it is the talk of amnesty that drew them to make the journey.  America isn't taking care of its own citizens, so how are we supposed to take care of the rest of the world?  When you support immigration at any cost, it is most likely an American that will bear that cost in the loss of jobs and the safety net to catch them when there isn't a job.
    American foreign aid isn't money, it's credit to buy from American businesses.  Central America doesn't need GMO seeds.  It needs jobs, just like we do.  There needs to be a fundamental shift in just what foreign aid should accomplish.  In the meantime we shouldn't neglect our own with unfettered immigration.
    I won't be voting for any Republicans as their agenda is not good for the country (see Kansas), but if a Democrat is elected I will continue to seek lower immigration levels, not because I don't care about the immigrants, but because I care about average American citizens who are being ignored.

  •  I don't understand.... (0+ / 0-)

    why do they keep saying we're going to lose Congress if so many people dislike Republicans?  I'm sure I'm just ignorant of some facts....could someone explain it to me?

  •  Republicans exploit their votes by playing off ... (0+ / 0-)

    Republicans exploit their votes by playing off people's prejudices and fears. These people actually vote for their own demise. The party stands as a example of prejudices and fears more than it does for anything else!

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