This is an overview of the 2014 state senate elections in Maine. In this diary, I will go through every race, discussing the candidates and the outlook of each race. This diary is an update of my earlier diary on the same subject. Since then, a couple of Independent candidates have entered races, the primaries have taken place, and a bunch of candidates have withdrawn from their races after the primaries and been replaced with new candidates by the local parties. The deadline for post-primary withdrawals was July 29, so now candidates cannot take their names off the ballot. Some of my descriptions and ratings will be identical to those in my previous diary, while others will be quite different.
In 2012, Democrats retook both houses of the Maine state legislature from the Republicans, and are now seeking to defend their majorities. Democrats currently have a 19-15 majority (with one independent) in the state senate, and an 89-58 majority (with 4 independents) in the state house of representatives. My prediction, as of now, is that Democrats will retain the state senate, and may even gain a seat or two.
With that being said, follow me below the fold for the individual races.
Here is a map of the state senate districts of Maine. You may want to have this map on another browser window as you read this diary.
District 1 (northern Aroostook): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 59.54%
This seat is open due to term-limited incumbent Troy Dale Jackson’s running for Congress in ME-02. The Democratic candidate is term-limited state representative Charles Theriault of Madawaska, and the Republican is former state representative and 2012 candidate Peter Edgecomb of Caribou. In 2012, Edgecomb significantly outperformed the Republican baseline, getting over 60% in Caribou (a town that Obama won). However, Theriault is a good candidate, and his French last name will certainly help here. The Democratic lean of the district would make an Edgecomb win a significant upset, but that cannot be counted out. LIKELY D.
District 2 (southern Aroostook): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 43.95%
This seat is open due to incumbent Roger Sherman being term-limited (Sherman is running for the state House). The Republican here is Michael Willette of Presque Isle, a former state representative who won in 2008 and 2010 as a Democrat, then switched parties after the 2010 election and was defeated in 2012 by a real Democrat. The Democratic candidate is Michael Carpenter of Houlton, a former state AG (statewide officials in Maine are appointed by the state legislature) and former state legislative candidate. While Carpenter has a good profile as an Army veteran, this district is likely too Republican for him. No Democrats in Maine represent districts anywhere near as Republican as this (only one or two Democratic state legislators currently represent Romney districts). Also, Willette is a good candidate coming from the largest town in the district. It’s hard to see how we win this. SAFE R.
District 3 (Somerset County): Rodney Whittemore (R-Skowhegan)
Obama ’12: 50.71%
This seat is held by Whittemore, a popular incumbent who got almost 60% in 2012. He’s being challenged by Democrat Craig Heavey of Canaan, who seems to be a Some Dude since there is almost nothing about him on the Internet. He’s likely just a sacrificial lamb. SAFE R.
District 4 (Piscataquis and parts of Somerset and Penobscot): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 44.12%
This seat featured an interesting Republican primary between two strongly conservative state legislators: Douglas Thomas, the incumbent, who lives in Ripley in Somerset County, and state representative Paul T. Davis, who lives in Sangerville in Piscataquis County. Davis ended up defeating Thomas by a vote of 1,763-1,292. The Democratic candidate is David Ziemer of Orneville Twp, who is a vice chair of the Piscataquis County Democratic Party. This is not a high-profile position, and Ziemer is little better than a Some Dude. That, plus the Republican nature of the district, makes a Davis victory pretty much assured. SAFE R.
District 5 (Orono, Old Town, Millinocket): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 58.97%
This seat is open due to incumbent Emily Cain’s decision to run for Congress in ME-02. There was a Democratic primary here between former state representative Herbert Clark of Millinocket (who ran against Douglas Thomas in 2012) and current state representative James Dill of Old Town. Clark is to the right of Dill on social issues (he opposed Question 1 in 2012, which made sense considering his house district voted strongly against it), but they are probably both liberal on economic issues. As I expected, Clark performed strongly in the Millinocket area, but Dill swamped him in much-larger Orono and Old Town on the way to a 1,351-739 victory. The Republican candidate is Mitchell McLaughlin of Old Town, a replacement candidate after the previous one dropped out. McLaughlin is a previous failed candidate for the state House of Representatives, losing in the primary in 2012. He’s basically a Some Dude and a sacrificial lamb in this Democratic district. Dill will win easily. SAFE D.
District 6 (Washington County): David Burns (R-Whiting)
Obama ’12: 49.49%
This district features a rematch of the 2012 election, where Burns defeated Democrat Anne Perry of Calais 43-38, with 19 percent going to an independent candidate. Perry is back, and there are no independent candidates this time. It’s hard to tell whether the independent took more votes from Perry or Burns. Based on the election results and Burns’ incumbency, I’d say this race is LEAN R, but it could go either way.
District 7 (Hancock County): Brian Langley (R-Ellsworth)
Obama ’12: 57.92%
This is the most Democratic state senate district in Maine held by a Republican, and Langley won only 51-49 in 2012. This time he is being challenged by Democrat Theodore “Ted” Koffman of Bar Harbor, a former state legislator and executive director of the Maine Audubon Society. Langley won in 2012 by racking up a 2-1 margin in Ellsworth (a town that Obama won) and by limiting his losses on heavily-Democratic Mount Desert Island. Langley is no pushover, but Koffman is a good candidate, and this will be a close race. TOSSUP.
District 8 (Brewer area, western Hancock County): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 48.47%
This is a bit of a strange district, combining the Democratic Bucksport area of Hancock County with the Republican-leaning Brewer area across the Penobscot River from Bangor. One-term incumbent Ed Youngblood of Brewer dropped out of the race after the primary, and has been replaced on the ballot by Kimberley Rosen, a former state representative from Bucksport whose husband formerly represented this district in the state senate. Her Democratic opponent is Paul P. Davis of Brewer (not to be confused with the Republican running in District 4). This Paul Davis is the chair of Penobscot County Democratic Party, and a state senate candidate in 2008. Since this is now open, nothing can be taken for granted, but Rosen’s past service and well-known name make her favored in this Republican-leaning district. LIKELY R.
District 9 (Bangor and Hermon): Geoffrey Gratwick (D-Bangor)
Obama ’12: 55.79%
This is widely predicted to be one of the most expensive and marquee races in the Maine state senate in 2014. Gratwick, who defeated a Republican with 52 percent in 2012, faces Republican Cary Weston, a former mayor of Bangor. He may sound like a tough opponent, but in Bangor, the mayor is just the chair of the city council, so he’s never actually been in a citywide election. If you look this race up on the Internet, you’ll probably get the impression that it’s a tossup, but the decided Democratic lean of the district leads me to rate this race LEAN D.
District 10 (Western Penobscot County): Andre Cushing (R-Hampden)
Obama ’12: 42.81%
This is the most Republican state senate district in Maine. Cushing is challenged by Democrat Jaric Fontaine of Hampden, who seems to be a Some Dude. Cushing will cruise. SAFE R.
District 11 (Waldo County): Michael Thibodeau (R-Winterport)
Obama ’12: 53.63%
This district is coextensive with Waldo County. Thibodeau, who is the Senate Minority Leader, was re-elected 54-46 in 2012. He is challenged by Democrat Jonathan Fulford of Monroe, a small business owner. If Maine voters really wanted to punish their state legislators for not expanding Medicaid, this is where it would happen, but Fulford doesn’t seem to be a particularly impressive candidate. A Democratic win here would be a significant upset, but is not out of the question. LIKELY R.
District 12 (Knox County): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 60.36%
This district contains almost the entirety of Knox County. Its incumbent, Democrat Edward Mazurek, is not running for re-election. The Democratic candidate is former state representative David Miramant of Camden, who ran unsuccessfully for this seat in 2008. Mazurek has endorsed Miramant for the seat. The Republican candidate is Paula Sutton of Warren, a small business owner and an outspoken opponent of Medicaid expansion in Maine. The only reason I’m not rating this safe D is that this seat was held by a Republican from 2008 to 2012, but I expect Miramant to win easily. LIKELY D.
District 13 (Lincoln County): Chris Johnson (D-Somerville)
Obama ’12: 54.02%
This district contains all but one town of Lincoln County and one town each of Knox and Kennebec Counties. Chris Johnson won this seat in a special election in 2012, and then narrowly won re-election in November of that year with 50.3% of the vote. This year, the Republican he narrowly defeated, former state representative Leslie Fossel of Alna, is back for a rematch. Due to the extreme closeness of the 2012 race, it’s hard to call this race anything but a TOSSUP.
District 14 (southern Kennebec County): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 54.44%
This district is home to what may be the most unpredictable state senate race in Maine this year. There was a Democratic primary between David Bustin, a former mayor of Hallowell who ran for this seat in 2012 and got 49.3 percent of the vote, and Louis Sigel, the secretary for the Kennebec County Democratic Party; Bustin won ¾ of the vote in the primary. The Republican who will face him is former state senator Earle McCormick of West Gardiner, who represented this seat from 2006 to 2012. This is bad news for Democrats, for two reasons: one, McCormick is popular (he got 54% in 2008 and 61% in 2010), and two, politically he is to the right of the current incumbent, Patrick Flood, who is not running for re-election. There is also an independent candidate running here: Gary Quintal, also of West Gardiner. It is unclear whether Quintal will take more votes away from Bustin or McCormick, but he could prevent McCormick from getting the massive margins in West Gardiner that he’s gotten in the past. If Bustin can hold onto the margins he got in the towns along the Kennebec River in 2012, and do better in Winthrop, then he could win, but McCormick might make that hard. This is a difficult race to handicap, but I’ll be cautious and say LEAN R.
District 15 (Augusta area): Roger Katz (R-Augusta)
Obama ’12: 54.56%
This district contains Augusta and the towns to its immediate north. Katz is a genuinely moderate Republican (having voted repeatedly to override LePage’s veto of Medicaid expansion), and he won re-election last year in a landslide. This year, he is being challenged by Democrat Rebecca Cornell du Houx, a former candidate for state representative for an Augusta district. She doesn’t seem like much of an obstacle to Katz’s re-election, considering that she couldn’t even win a Democratic primary for state representative. SAFE R.
District 16 (Waterville area): Colleen Lachowicz (D-Waterville)
Obama ’12: 57.75%
This district contains most of the towns around Waterville, and it added Fairfield in redistricting, making it slightly more Democratic. Lachowicz defeated a one-term Republican in 2012 by a 53-47 margin, and she’s running again. She is being challenged by Scott Cyrway of Benton, a deputy in the Kennebec County Sheriff’s office. Cyrway doesn’t have any electoral experience, and the fact that he’s not from the population center of the district will also hurt him. Cyrway doesn’t seem like much of a threat to Lachowicz. SAFE D.
District 17 (Franklin County): Tom Saviello (R-Wilton)
Obama ’12: 56.75%
This district includes the entirety of Franklin County and parts of western Kennebec County. Saviello, similar to Katz, is a widely popular, genuinely moderate Republican who has also voted repeatedly for Medicaid expansion. Also similar to Katz, Saviello won re-election in 2012 in a landslide. His 2012 opponent, Joanne Dunlap of Rangeley Plantation, is back for a rematch, but despite the blueness of this district, I don’t see why the results this year would be much different from how they were in 2012. SAFE R.
District 18 (Oxford County): John Patrick (D-Rumford)
Obama ’12: 57.17%
This district contains the northern and central portions of Oxford County, as well as Livermore and Livermore Falls in Androscoggin County. Patrick is a popular incumbent who won 57-30-13 in 2012. His Republican opponent is Joseph Martin of Rumford, a local businessman. Martin replaced the previous Republican candidate, state representative Gary Knight, who dropped out after the primary. Martin doesn’t have the necessary profile to make this district competitive at all. SAFE D.
District 19 (South Oxford County and North Cumberland County): James Hamper (R-Oxford)
Obama ’12: 53.00%
Hamper is a first-term incumbent who received 54 percent of the vote in 2012. His Democratic challenger is Rose Rogers-Wells of Brownfield, who seems to be a Some Dude. It’s unfortunate that the Dems couldn’t find anyone better to run here, since this is definitely a winnable district, and Hamper is quite conservative. Out of an abundance of caution, I’m rating this race LIKELY R, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hamper win by more than ten points.
District 20 (Auburn and west Androscoggin County): John Cleveland (D-Auburn)
Obama ’12: 54.11%
Cleveland, who has been described as a “quiet, but influential” lawmaker, defeated a Republican incumbent in 2012 by seven points. This year, he is challenged by Republican Eric Brakey, also of Auburn. Brakey is 25 years old, and has been described as a libertarian. He’s raised more money than any other state senate candidate in Maine this year. Brakey received publicity for a video where he danced in a swimsuit while filming a commercial. While certainly Brakey seems to be young and energetic, his inexperience and out-of the mainstream political views will likely harm him on the campaign trail. LIKELY D.
District 21 (Lewiston): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 60.60%
This seat is coterminous with the city of Lewiston. Its Democratic incumbent, Margaret Craven, is term-limited this year. The Democratic candidate is state representative Nathan Libby, who received 64% of the vote in 2012. The Republican candidate is Patricia Gagne, who seems to be a Some Dude. This is not surprising, considering that Lewiston is a solidly Democratic city. Libby will win easily. SAFE D.
District 22 (north and east Androscoggin County): Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon)
Obama ’12: 49.24%
This seat was home to the closest state senate race in Maine in 2012, when Mason won re-election by only 28 votes, a margin of 50.07-49.93%. Mason has a stronger Democratic opponent this time in Androscoggin County Sheriff Guy Desjardins of Sabattus. The district got slightly more Republican in redistricting by losing Livermore and Livermore Falls, but it is still closely divided, and Androscoggin County doesn’t have the same historical Republican-ness that the rest of Maine has. While I’d say Mason is slightly favored because of incumbency, I’d still call the race a TOSSUP.
District 23 (Sagadahoc County): Eloise Vitelli (D-Arrowsic)
Obama ’12: 56.74%
This seat contains the entirety of Sagadahoc County and Dresden in Lincoln County. Vitelli is the newest member of the Maine Senate, having won a special election on August 27, 2013, and is running for re-election. Her Republican opponent is Linda Baker of Topsham, who seems to be a Some Dude as there is very little on Google about her. There is also a Green Party candidate in this race, Alice Knapp of Richmond. Vitelli has experience fending off both Republicans and Greens (she did so in the special election), but the Green nonetheless makes things less predictable. While I fully expect Vitelli to win by a significant margin, out of caution I will say LIKELY D.
District 24 (Brunswick area): Stanley Gerzofsky (D-Brunswick)
Obama ’12: 63.24%
This is a heavily-Democratic and strongly socially-liberal district on the Maine coast. Gerzofsky has represented the district since 2008, and he got 67 percent in 2012. He is opposed by Republican Jennifer Johnson, a small business owner, and Green Party candidate K. Frederick Horsch, who ran for the state House in 2012 and came in second, ahead of the Republican. Gerzofsky is very popular, and, despite the three-way race, he has nothing to worry about. SAFE D.
District 25 (Falmouth, Cumberland, and Yarmouth): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 55.74%
This area is rich, socially liberal, and has the highest voter turnout of anywhere in Maine. The incumbent state senator, Independent Richard Woodbury of Yarmouth, is not running for re-election. This district has had a tumultuous few months. Originally, it looked like both the Republicans and Democrats would have primaries, but one of the Republicans dropped out before the primary, leaving only one left. The Democrats still had a primary, and Catherine Breen of Falmouth defeated Steve Woods of Yarmouth by a 2-1 margin. Then, after the primary, the Republican candidate dropped out, forcing the local Republican parties to find another nominee. They eventually chose Cathleen Manchester, of Gray. Based solely on the process, I’d say that Breen looks to be in a better position, as she has been running for much longer. Manchester is also hampered by the fact that she lives in the only non-coastal town in the district, so geography is not on her side. That, plus the fact that the district leans Democratic, leads me to rate this district LIKELY D.
District 26 (Windham and other areas north of Portland): Open Seat
Obama ’12: 51.27%
This district is currently represented by Republican Gary Plummer, who won in 2012 without a Democratic opponent and is now not running for re-election. The Democrat running is Bill Diamond of Windham, a popular former state senator (he got 60% even in 2010) who was termed out in 2012. The Republican candidate is Stuart Pennels of Casco, a replacement candidate after the original one dropped out. Pennels is a former state representative candidate who was defeated in 2012. People I’ve met who are in the know say that this is the Democrats’ most likely pickup this year. Based on Pennels’ losing electoral record and Diamond’s popularity, this race is on the safer side of LIKELY D.
District 27 (Inner Portland): Justin Alfond (D-Portland)
Obama ’12: 76.32%
This is the most Democratic district in Maine, and it’s represented by the President of the State Senate, Justin Alfond. Alfond’s opponents are Republican Peter Doyle, who ran for this same seat in 2010 and was defeated heavily, and Green Party candidate Asher Platts, who ran for this seat in 2012 and served as Alfond’s de facto opponent since no Republican was in the race. Obviously, Alfond is completely safe. SAFE D.
District 28 (Outer Portland, Westbrook): Anne Haskell (D-Portland)
Obama ’12: 72.01%
This is the second most Democratic district in Maine. Haskell, the no. 3 Democrat in the Maine Senate, is running again. This is the only district in Maine where the Republicans are not running a candidate, and Haskell’s only opposition is Green Party candidate Owen Hill. Haskell is completely safe. SAFE D.
District 29 (South Portland, Cape Elizabeth): Rebecca Millett (D-Cape Elizabeth)
Obama ’12: 66.63%
This is the third most Democratic district in Maine. Millett, a first-term incumbent, faces Republican William DeSena of Cape Elizabeth, a Some Dude, and Green Party candidate Mark Diehl. It’s hard to believe that this district actually had a close race in 2010, but it won’t this year. SAFE D.
District 30 (Scarborough, Gorham): James Boyle (D-Gorham)
Obama ’12: 54.67%
This district contains most of Scarborough, all of Gorham, and part of Buxton. Boyle, a first-term incumbent who won by over ten points in 2012, faces Republican state representative Amy Volk of Scarborough. Volk is a good get for the Republicans, however she’s hardly a force to be reckoned with in Scarborough, considering that she won re-election in 2012 by only 12 votes. That means that only half of her district, which is half of Scarborough, which is half of this senate district, voted for her (1/8 of her district in total). Additionally, Boyle lost Scarborough in 2012 but still won easily due to his popularity in Gorham. If things start to turn against the Dems, this is where Republicans could gain, but I think Boyle will be okay. LEAN D, but close to likely.
District 31 (Saco area): Linda Valentino (D-Saco)
Obama ’12: 59.62%
This district is dominated by Saco and Old Orchard Beach, and includes a few other inland towns. Valentino won 60% in 2012, and is challenged by Republican Michael Coleman, a former member of the Old Orchard Beach town council. He, and six of the seven town council members, was recalled in 2013 over a debate about the position of Town Manager. Thus, it’s unlikely that such a polarizing figure in his own town could mount a serious challenge to a strong incumbent in a Democratic district. SAFE D.
District 32 (Biddeford area): David Dutremble (D-Biddeford)
Obama ’12: 60.53%
This district is dominated by Biddeford and includes several smaller inland towns. In 2012, Dutremble won by only seven points against James Booth of Arundel, a Republican who ran as an independent. Booth is back for a rematch, this time running as a Republican. I have trouble seeing how someone with an ‘R’ next to their name is going to defeat an incumbent in a district like this. SAFE D.
District 33 (Sanford area): John Tuttle (D-Sanford)
Obama ’12: 55.28%
This district is based in the major town of Sanford and includes some small rural towns north of it. Tuttle narrowly fended off a primary challenge from state representative Andrea Boland by only 22 votes, 844 to 822. His Republican opponent is David Woodsome of Waterboro, another replacement candidate who is a board member in Waterboro. He was also a write-in candidate for state representative, getting 47 percent of the vote in a Republican primary. He’s not that strong of a candidate, but he’s no Some Dude, and due to Tuttle’s narrow primary win, I’d rate this race LIKELY D.
District 34 (Berwick, Wells, Kennebunk): Ronald Collins (R-Wells)
Obama ’12: 52.35%
This district got more Democratic in redistricting by dropping some of the more conservative northern towns and gaining Kennebunk. Collins won a three-way race in 2012 with 46 percent of the vote, as a Democrat ran as an independent and split the left-leaning vote. This year, that same independent, Richard Burns of Berwick, is back, ready to play spoiler again. The Democratic candidate is Gary Connor of Kennebunk, a former state representative for two terms. Connor is not well known outside of Kennebunk, but he’ll likely do well enough there to cancel out Collins’ margin in Wells, so the remaining towns may decide the winner. Collins is likely to win re-election due to the Democratic split. LIKELY R.
District 35 (York, Kittery): Dawn Hill (D-York)
Obama ’12: 58.11%
This district is located at the southern tip of Maine. Hill is a strong incumbent who got 63 percent in 2012. Her Republican challenger is John Carson of Kittery, yet another replacement candidate after the original one, state representative Windol Weaver, dropped out. Carson is a former candidate for state representative in 2010 and 2012. If he couldn’t even win a state representative seat in 2010, there’s no way he’ll pose much of a challenge to Hill. SAFE D.
Therefore, this leaves:
11 Safe D (5,16,18,21,24,27,28,29,31,32,35,)
7 Likely D (1,12,20,23,25,26,33)
2 Lean D (9,30)
3 Tossup (7,13,22)
2 Lean R (6,14)
4 Likely R (8,11,19,34)
6 Safe R (2,3,4,10,15,17)
Thank you for reading, and I welcome any questions, comments, or concerns!