Following my last edition from July, this diary is my second to last update on race ratings for the US Senate elections in 2014. With a handful of special elections taking place, there will now be 36 separate elections in 34 different states this year for the Class II senate seats with 21 held by Democrats and 15 held by Republicans. Democrats currently hold 55 seats to Republicans' 45 meaning that the opposition would need a net gain of 6 to win control of the chamber as Vice President Biden would break a 50-50 tie in favor of Democrats. Many pundits like to assign races to categories of likelihood of a particular party winning and I do as well. Using the categories of Safe, Likely, Lean, and Tossup, I'll go one step further and give percentage chances, but note I'm not using a formal model and these are just to give you an idea of my degree of confidence:
Safe - That party has over a 95 percent percent chance of winning. The other party has no realistic options for victory under present or expected circumstances.
Likely - That party has over an 80 percent chance of winning and is the heavy favorite. However it is possible that the situation might change and the other party has a potential but unlikely path to victory.
Lean - That party has over a 65 percent chance of winning and is a narrow, but clear favorite. This race will be competitive and it is quite plausible that the other party could win with changing circumstances. (note this was changed from 60 to increments of 15)
Tossup - Both parties have less than a 65 percent chance of winning and the heavily contested race could easily go either way even if one party might be favored from week to week.
With that system in mind, let's take a look at the playing field mapped out and in chart form while you can also view an interactive version here with member bio and past election performance.
There are 64 seats not up for election this year and of those 34 are held by Democrats and 30 are held by Republicans. Adding to those all the 2014 races which are a likelihood of Lean D/R or greater yields a total of 48 leaning Democratic, 47 leaning Republican, and 5 being Tossups. On the aggregate I would assign Democrats a 50 to 55 percent chance of retaining the senate meaning the rating for the chamber stands at Tossup. Democrats are disadvantaged by having to defend many seats in hostile territory with few potential gains, a byproduct of this being the class that saw the 2008 wave where Democrats picked up 8 seats and won all the Obama states.
Overall I see Republicans being the clear favorites to pick up three seats and if forced to choose then net five total: Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Louisiana, and Arkansas in decreasing order of likelihood. On the other hand Republicans now have a very vulnerable seat to defend in Kansas, but further polling is necessary there. Note that much of this diary is unchanged since July, however Kansas shifted progressively from Safe R to Tossup, Michigan from Likely D to Safe D, South Dakota from Safe R to Likely R, Kentucky from Tossup back to Lean R, and Montana and West Virginia from Likely R to Safe R.
Since there are a manageable number of races I'll detail them one by one below the fold.
Tossup
Alaska - Mark Begich won in 2008 in a bit of an upset over state institution and long-term incumbent Ted Stevens after the incumbent was convicted for corruption a week before the election. Given how Republican Alaska is it is quite fortunate for Democrats that Begich has retained a relatively strong approval rating. But Republicans are making this a must win pick up opportunity and nominated former state attorney general Dan Sullivan (who conveniently shares a name with the mayor of Anchorage). Given how cheap the state is this one is going to possibly see tens of millions of dollars spent on it and likely go down to the wire. If forced to pick I'd bet on Begich given his approval rating and the pro-pork, pro-incumbent nature of the electorate, but this race could easily go either way and is the closet to 50-50 there is, especially given the general unreliability of polling the last couple of cycles.
Arkansas - This state more than any other has shifted hard to the Republican party up and down the ballot since Obama was first elected and incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor last elected in 2008. Pryor's approval rating has ranged from lukewarm to fatal in polling, but aside from his vote for Obamacare has nothing truly unpopular among the electorate in his 12 year voting record, yet that may not be enough. Republicans are running the rather untested freshman representative Tom Cotton who has nonetheless been raising solid amounts of money, but is overall very conservative. However given the long term trend of the state and Obama's toxicity, it seems that the Republican Cotton would be the favorite of a coin-flip.
Kansas - Kansas is a starkly Republican state with the longest record of any of only electing Republican senators, last electing a Democrat in 1932, but this race has been totally upended in recent weeks for a few reasons. First and foremost, incumbent Pat Roberts is not popular with all polling showing him deeply underwater and Roberts pathetically winning just a plurality in his primary over a scandal-plagued under-funded tea partier. Secondly, the rest of the ticket in Kansas is in dire shape as well with Sam Brownback's administration utterly toxic thanks to horribly unsound budget policies. Finally, Democrats lucked out last week when their very unimpressive nominee Chad Taylor dropped out in favor of Democrat-turned-Independent Greg Orman who has raised a significant amount of money, can self fund, has been running his own ads, and even polled ahead of Roberts in the only 1-on-1 poll to date. With the dust still settling here this is the race I'm least confident in predicting, but there should be no doubt that this is absolutely a race to watch given how weak of an incumbent Roberts is and with Orman being likely to caucus with the Democrats.
Louisiana - Multi-term incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu has a history of running and winning heavily contested races in a conservative state and is in a position to possibly win once more. She has a solid personal image as a moderate, her state is getting no worse for her party unlike Arkansas, and is chair of the senate energy and natural resources committee in a state with a huge energy sector. Her opponent, representative Bill Cassidy, has raised a decent amount of money and is essentially a generic Republican, but is not the best candidate Republicans could have run in the state and is still somewhat unknown. However the state is quite conservative and fairly tough for Democrats without presidential turnout while Republican groups have spent millions attacking Landrieu over Obamacare among other things. Recent polls have shown Landrieu's approval rating to be fairly mediocre and if that doesn't change, Republicans will probably win more likely than not, especially with the race almost certainly headed to a December runoff.
North Carolina - Of any state out of the bunch, North Carolina is the one I'm most hesitant to drop below Lean Democratic. For starters it's pretty much as 50-50 a state as you get and Kay Hagan is already the incumbent who defeated Elizabeth Dole by a very solid margin in 2008, yet her approval rating has declined in early 2014 after $9 million in relatively unanswered attack ads by Koch affiliated super PACs. Despite that though, her opposition is decidedly unimpressive. Republicans lack a strong bench of potential statewide candidates and nominated state house speaker Thom Tillis. While he might seem like an okay candidate on paper, Tillis has posted poor fundraising with super PACs doing all the heavy lifting, but more importantly he is the very public face of a Republican dominated legislative session that has passed a very toxic agenda, giving Tillis a 2-1 negative favorability rating. Though the polls have shown the race 50-50 right now and Hagan's approval narrowly underwater, I fully expect Tillis to be loathed on election day after Hagan has unloaded on him.
Lean Democratic
Colorado - This race saw a major shake up with the entrance of two term congressman Cory Gardner and the exit of tea party favorite Ken Buck earlier this year. Senator Mark Udall first won election by a comfortable margin in 2008 and has remained decently popular in a light blue state. Recent polling has shown him somewhat vulnerable in his approval rating and head to heads with Gardner, but taking it at face value is misleading. Polling the last few cycles has consistently underestimated Democratic strength on average while Gardner has a staunchly right-wing voting record in Congress and very publicly flip flopped after long supporting a state constitutional amendment that would make zygotes a legal person (I kid you not) and effectively ban all abortion and many forms of contraceptives, yet Gardner remains a co-sponsor of such legislation and is running in a state that is overwhelmingly pro-choice.
Iowa - An open Democratic-held seat in a very light blue state should be a highly contested fight, but thus far Republicans have clearly been coming up short. Democrats right away landed a strong candidate in representative Bruce Braley who has been raising solid amounts of funds and already built up positive name recognition. Republicans saw their top tier candidates decline and instead nominated staunchly conservative state senator Joni Ernst. Republicans have high hopes here due to Braley's lackluster campaigning, Ernst's personable style, and the closeness of polling, but don't let that fool you. Ernst is a Grade-A tea party wacko in the mold of Sharron Angle, Todd Akin, and Christine O'Donnell. She supports zygote personhood like Gardner (and would ban all abortion), privatizing social security, opposes the farm bill, opposes the Clean Water Act, and has previously claimed incorrectly that Iraq did indeed have WMDs and voiced support for lunatic UN black helicopter New-World-Order conspiracy theories. Polling may be close now, but with Ernst's flaws this race is Braley's to lose.
Lean Republican
Kentucky - One of the marquee races this cycle features the unpopular Republican senate caucus minority leader Mitch McConnell. Kentucky Democrats have a very strong bench and are running state secretary of state Alison Lundergan Grimes who has thus far run a solid campaign. In the general election McConnell is still a modest favorite despite polling narrowly ahead of Grimes for a few reasons. Most importantly is that, despite his low approval rating, Obama and his policies are even less popular and the state is strongly conservative even if not strongly Republican. McConnell will also have an utterly absurd amount of money at his disposal to tar the Democrat Grimes with. Still, this will be one of the most visible campaigns of the cycle and if Democrats can successfully make this campaign about McConnell and Kentucky's Kynect (Obamacare) system rather than Obamacare and coal then Grimes just might win.
Likely Republican
Georgia - The state is strongly Republican yet slowly but steadily becoming more Democratic as it becomes less white. Democrats though lacking a good bench landed a solid candidate with non-profit CEO Michelle Nunn who is the daughter of popular former senator Sam Nunn. Republicans had a wide open primary field that includes three sitting representatives and a former statewide officeholder along with a self-funding businessman, but Democrats' hope of winning this seat died when firebrand Rep. Paul Broun failed to make the primary runoff and Republicans instead nominated businessman David Perdue. However Nunn has been raising very solid amounts of money while Perdue certainly has vulnerabilities due to his vulture-capitalist Romney-esque business dealings. Unfortunately for Democrats though, Georgia is also a state which requires general election runoffs if no candidate clears 50 percent and they have been toxic for Democrats with an asymmetric drop in turnout. Even without a runoff, this is still a highly inelastic Republican state and Perdue should probably win the first round, but Nunn's only shot here is to win 50 percent in November.
South Dakota - When incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson announced his retirement, former Republican governor Mike Rounds entered the race, and Democrats failed to recruit their strongest candidate Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, many observers including myself considered this race a done-deal Republican pick up. Recent developments however lead me to believe there's a very slight chance for a Democratic upset for former Daschle staffer Rick Weiland. Rounds' initial high approval ratings have turned fairly mediocre in recent polling which itself has been less than conclusive. Complicating things even further are the presence of two Republican-turned-Independents on the ballot. Former senator Larry Pressler who used to occupy this seat before losing to Tim Johnson in 1996 is running to the center-right while former state senator Gordon Howie is running as a true-conservative alternative to Rounds. Although South Dakota voted for Romney by 16 points, it is fairly elastic and very cheap to advertise in. With polling not showing Rounds in such a dominant position as before, I'm moving the state to Likely Republican mostly out of caution.
Safe Democratic
Delaware - Chris Coons won the lottery in 2010 when longtime moderate representative and former governor Mike Castle was defeated in the Republican primary in a huge upset by ultra-conservative Christine O'Donnell, making that race one of the quintessential "tea-baggings." With Delaware being strongly Democratic and Coons being a non-controversial incumbent with no serious opponent he will cruise, probably even breaking 60 percent.
Hawaii - Longtime senator Daniel Inouye passed away in late 2012 and then lieutenant governor Brian Schatz was appointed as his replacement. Hawaii is quite simply the most Democratic state in the nation and all the action is in the open primary where Schatz narrowly edged out Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and he'll go on to win in a 30-40 point blowout in the general election.
Illinois - Dick Durbin is a multi-term popular senator in a fairly safe Democratic state and will have nothing to worry about. Even in a Republican wave Durbin would likely prevail over perennial losing candidate and state senator Jim Oberweis, despite some polls from massively Republican-biased pollster WeAskAmerica showing a single digit race.
Massachusetts - Ed Markey won by roughly 10 percent in the 2013 special election and has no serious opposition for a full term. Massachusetts is one of the most liberal states in the nation and it would take wave conditions and a Scott Brown candidacy for Markey to be vulnerable, if Brown weren't embarrassing himself next door.
Michigan - Though the seat is an open one held by Democrats, the party is still in a strong position to retain it given how solidly Democratic Michigan is at the federal level. When incumbent Carl Levin retired, Democrats landed their strongest possible candidate in representative Gary Peters who has a history of winning tough races in swing districts, but also appealing to the Democratic base in a majority black seat. Republicans are running a candidate who is decent on paper in former state secretary of state Terri Lynn Land, but she has never run a race on federal issues, was not the party's first choice, and has thus far been very lackluster. Polling has consistently shown Peters ahead and with Land running terrible ads and generally having a poor handle over the issues of debate I fail to see how she could possibly win, even if Peters doesn't exceed double digits.
Minnesota - Al Franken won by a 312 vote plurality in 2008 in a race that was dragged out in court until June the following year, but has since kept his head down and built a reputation as a workhorse mainstream Democrat and has a healthy approval rating. Minnesota is a fairly solid state for Democrats and Republicans have not landed a 1st tier candidate with businessman Mike McFadden effectively winning the nomination . Franken however is the overwhelming favorite with a huge financial war chest and will win absent a 2010-level wave, even if the margins aren't as gaudy as they have been for senior senator Amy Klobuchar
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen was also a member of the Democratic wave class of 2008 when she defeated an incumbent that year. New Hampshire is light blue and Shaheen has a modestly popular approval rating, but Republicans lack a strong bench to capitalize on any vulnerabilities. Already running for Republicans is former senator Bob Smith who has the flaws of having been defeated in the 2002 primary as an incumbent, then moving to Florida and running for senate in 2004 and generally having a conservative record in a moderate state. Meanwhile, defeated former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown has moved here and announced a run and has become the party establishment's preferred candidate. But Brown has gotten tons of flak in the press for being a carpetbagging opportunist and has a decidedly unpopular image in the state after attack ads have already targeted him. The state is prone to large swings with the national mood, but it would likely take a wave for this race to become truly competitive with Shaheen posting wide polling leads and Brown making gaffes and an utter fool of himself.
New Jersey - Like Ed Markey, Cory Booker won by low double digits in a low-turnout special election in 2013, but now faces no serious opposition for a full term in a heavily Democratic state.
New Mexico - Tom Udall picked up this seat in a landslide in 2008 when it was open and has proved to be a very popular incumbent. Couple that with New Mexico's modest Democratic lean and no serious opposition and Udall is a lock.
Oregon - Jeff Merkley knocked off a strong incumbent in 2008 by a modest margin, but has been sufficiently popular enough that with Oregon's strong Democratic lean he should be able to easily dispatch Republican nominee Monica Wehby whose candidacy has imploded after allegations of stalking by multiple ex-boyfriends.
Rhode Island - Jack Reed is a popular multi-term incumbent in one of the most Democratic states in the country and has only token opposition.
Virginia - Despite the entry into the race by former RNC chairman Ed Gillespie, freshman senator Mark Warner is still safe come hell or high water. Warner is the most popular politician in the state and consistently sees a approval rating spreads of +20 in polling. Though Gillespie is a favorite of the DC news media and will have plenty of money, he has never run for elective office before and has a horrible resume for it; it basically reads partisan hack. Governor Terry McAuliffe, a former DNC chairman, won last November with that same resume but that was solely because his opponent was viewed as too ideologically extreme by the electorate. With Warner's broad popularity, huge war chest, and Virginia being a purple state, it is unthinkable that he would lose to Gillespie or any other Republican yet don't be surprised that the Politico crowd continues to call this a sleeper race.
Safe Republican
Alabama - The state is one of the most conservative in the country and incumbent Jeff Sessions is relatively popular there. The state Democratic party is in disarray and for the first time in history did not even file a candidate, making this the only state where the incumbent faces literally nobody else on the ballot.
Idaho - As with Alabama, Idaho is a strongly conservative state, incumbent Jim Risch is popular, and the weak local Democratic party is only putting forth a nominal challenge.
Maine - Despite Maine being a strongly Democratic-leaning state, multi-term incumbent Susan Collins easily dispatched then sitting congressman Tom Allen in a rout in the Democratic wave of 2008. That performance and having over a 60 percent approval rating even among Democrats scared off any strong candidates and though her approval rating among members of her own party has been fairly mediocre, Collins faced no serious opposition in that closed primary either. The only real question here is if Collins breaks 2/3rds of the vote in this relatively low polarization state where her opponent is former Maine ACLU executive director Shenna Bellows who has been running as a solid progressive and surprisingly raised well over $1 million.
Mississippi - Perhaps the least elastic state in the nation for federal elections, Mississippi is solidly Republican under any and all circumstances short of a Todd Akin-esque implosion. Longtime incumbent Thad Cochran is relatively popular among the general electorate, but just barely squeaked by in the primary runoff against ultra-conservative state senator Chris Mcdaniel who would have tested the notion of how unpopular a Republican has to be to lose here. As for the general election Democrats landed a decent candidate with former Blue Dog congressman Travis Childers, but he is exceedingly unlikely to prevail even over Cochran given the current state of Mississippi's electorate and would need have needed McDaniel to have had any shot.
Montana - Democrats massively dropped the ball here despite Republicans having only ever won a popular election for senate four times in the state. Longtime incumbent senator Max Baucus saw his approval rating tank during the 2009/2010 health care debates and declined to run for re-election. Unfortunately for Democrats, very popular governor Brian Schweitzer did not enter the race as many had been counting on and thus At-Large Republican congressman Steve Daines became the front-runner. When Baucus was appointed Ambassador to China earlier this year, Democratic governor Steve Bullock appointed the party establishment's choice of then lieutenant governor John Walsh to replace Baucus in the senate, but Walsh's campaign imploded due to a plagiarism scandal summer and he dropped out. Democrats replaced Walsh with first term state representative Amanda Curtis who is running as a liberal, will get considerably outspent, and lose big to Daines in November.
Nebraska - Despite this being an open seat, Democrats have no hope in solid red Nebraska though attorney Dave Domina is taking one for the team by running. Former senator Bob Kerrey got stomped by a 2nd tier state senator in 2012 and national Democrats weren't keen on investing here again. Midland University president Ben Sasse easily won the nomination running as a Ted Cruz-style ultra-conservative and will win the general easily.
Oklahoma A - Multi-term incumbent Jim Inhofe is perfectly safe in the general in one of the most Republican and conservative states in the nation.
Oklahoma B - This 2nd seat in Oklahoma will be open with the pending early resignation of two-term incumbent Tom Coburn due to health issues. House Rep. James Lankford easily won the Republican nomination and will cruise in the general election.
South Carolina A - Senator Lindsay Graham is fairly popular with the general electorate in staunchly Republican South Carolina, but for a long time he looked very vulnerable in the primary. However Graham's primary opponents turned out to be duds and a strong monetary advantage saw him win modest majority and avoid a runoff. Democrats landed longtime state senator Brad Hutto, but Graham is an overwhelming favorite in a highly inelastic state Romney carried by over 10%.
South Carolina B - Incumbent Tim Scott was appointed to this seat in 2013 and is popular enough in a solidly conservative seat that he is only facing token opposition.
Tennessee - Lamar! Alexander is a multi-term senator and former governor who is immensely popular in the state among general election voters even though he pathetically won with a plurality in the primary after outspending his opponent several times over. Democrats have a serious lower-tier candidate taking one for the team after the 2012 debacle when a far-right nobody won the nomination, but they simply stand no chance in a state that has trended rapidly Republican since the days of Al Gore.
Texas - Texas is solidly Republican and despite Cornyn being relatively unpopular with Republican primary voters, he destroyed Steve Stockman in the primary and is set to cruise in the general election against self-funding millionaire dentist David Amaleel.
Wyoming - Wyoming is among the most Republican states in the country and Mike Enzi is quite popular.
West Virginia - Though the state has the longest streak in the country of not electing Republican senators, last doing so in 1956, it has moved strongly towards their party in recent years at the federal level as national Democrats have supported policies to combat climate change, but hurt the coal industry which has already been in sharp decline due to competition from natural gas. Republicans landed their strongest possible candidate for this open seat in representative Shelley Moore Capito, though Democrats also recruited a solid candidate in state secretary of state Natalie Tennant. Polling has been aggravatingly scant here and Capito has a voting record that is clearly to the right of the state's median particularly on fiscal issues, but her party affiliation, personal popularity, and strong monetary advantage will do more than blunt attacks and make her the overwhelming favorite as 2014 seems to be the year when West Virginia finally votes Republican downballot.