As you may well know, the Lebanese Army is facing a threat in the Beka'a valley, as both ISIS and Nusra are looking to gain a foothold there. The Lebanese Army is fairly weak, in relative terms, for political reasons, and as such, they are ill-equipped to deal with the threat.
A month ago, the Lebanese Army withstood and countered an assault by ISIS and others at Arsal. Despite heavy losses, the LA counter-attacked, pushed the invaders back and had ISIS at its mercy. The stand-off left the LA in the position of having to shell Arsal to dislodge ISIS, with the inherent risks of killing civilians. A negotiated solution was reached, with the "help" of Sunni clerics, wherein ISIS and Nusra would be allowed to leave Arsal, and retreat to the hills on the Syrian border unmolested. The benefit to to the Lebanese Army would be that they could retake Arsal, the benefit to ISIS would be that they could retain their lives. To seal the bargain, ISIS and Nusra wanted to take captive Lebanese soldiers and policemen with them, as hostages for safe passage, with the understanding that they would be released as soon as these groups reached safety. These same Lebanese Sunni clerics swore up and down that this was true, correct, and the only way to negotiate a solution without shelling the town of Arsal. The Lebanese Army agreed.
What happened next was entirely predictable, look over the orange corn puffs...
Of course once safety was reached, any thought of releasing the captives was dashed. I can't help but believe that these same Sunni clerics knew that all along.
Some quick background, the Lebanese Army is an institution that unites all of the various factions and sects in Lebanon. It's strength and legitimacy depend upon the acquiescence of the Lebanese people to its purpose and mission. Thus far, things have more or less gone well, the LA has integrated all of Lebanon's factions into a cohesive fighting force. The legacy of years of civil war makes this a difficult task, and if sectarian violence should threaten, it's conceivable that the LA could once again fragment, as it did during the civil war.
The wild card in this scenario is Hizballah. They have a parallel military establishment to the government, they are brilliant and effective fighters, yet do not answer to the central authority. So far, they have been reasonably decent, working with the government and the army. They claim to not want to upset the careful balance of Lebanese politics, and until recently, operated only in Lebanon. Their recent engagement with ISIS and Nusra in Syria is the exception, fought only because Hizballah would rather be proactive and fight in Syria, than defend in Lebanon. The west regards Hizballah as a "terrorist" organization. The truth is more complex, but suffice it to say that historically, Hizballah defends Lebanon against any foreign power, thus the conflicts with Israel and the US in the past.
The trick is, if you have a state prone to fragmentation along sectarian lines, and a sectarian militia that could challenge the state at any moment, you generally aren't a candidate for advanced weapons. The idea is that these weapons could wind up being used against israel, or others. As a result of this, the Lebanese Army is notoriously under-armed.
This is the problem, Lebanon is the "low hanging fruit" for ISIS. Lebanon has been occupied by over a million Syrian refugees. While most of them aren't political activists per se, many are reputed to be the family members and supporters of ISIS and Nusra, thus their refugee status, and in any case, the resulting chaos creates a smokescreen beneficial to ISIS. ISIS can find support and assistance among the Syrian refugees. This is an accident waiting to happen.
We now have an under-armed Lebanese Army trying to blunt and eliminate the threat of ISIS. The Beka'a, and points further west are natural refuges for ISIS. A weak military, natural land cover, and the general anarchy of the region can give them respite.
The Lebanese Army fought the well at Arsal a month ago. The commanding officer (a Sunni) and his XO (a Christian), realizing that their position was going to be overrun, ordered their soldiers to retreat, while they and a few others stayed behind to provide covering fire. Lt. Col. Jamal (pictured) tweeted a final photo and his goodbyes to his family, then proceeded to fire until he was cut down by ISIS troops.
The Lebanese Army has the loyalty and cohesion to fight and beat ISIS. There has been no bleed-over of weapons to Hizballah (if anything, Hizballah is better armed), and any fear of such is purely theoretical. What the Lebanese Army needs is heavier weapons with which to fight ISIS, specifically air support, air to ground missiles, helicopters, tanks and heavy artillery.
There has been much talk of support for the Lebanese Army, from France, the KSA and the US. There is at least $4 billion in arms on the way, allegedly, yet delays and red tape have shown this support to be largely theoretical. Cynics in Lebanon claim the delays are by design, and that the west has no intention of giving heavy weapons to Lebanon.
Shipments of weapons did arrive on August 29/30 and again two days ago (thanks!). The first shipment was valued at $9 million, and consisted of 1500 M-16s, 480 AT4s (the modern bazooka, a hand-held anti-tank rocket), 60 small mortars, 3 bomb-detecting robots and some unarmored Hummers.
Not to look a gift horse, in the mouth, everything helps, but these weapons are typical of what you would find in any company-level infantry unit in the world. Nothing here is a game-changer, these are light weapons, inadequate to the task of defending Lebanon. The Lebanese press are calling these weapons "firecrackers", and in the face of ISIS, that's probably an accurate assessment. American police departments get heavier weapons than this, and they don't have to engage ISIS.
One bright spot, the Russians have promised help, including heavy weapons and aircraft.
Sunni extremists have been trying to goad Lebanon, especially the Shia, into a civil war for more than a year. Random rocket attacks, car bombs and checkpoint ambushes have plagued Lebanon, and the perps are always the same, extremist Sunni elements. The targets have been the army and (mostly) Shia civilians. The latest incursion at Arsal yielded a couple of dozen captives, and ISIS is beheading them one by one. Their demands are intolerable, and won't be met (cash, 400 terrorists released, and free access to Arsal). The Army and Hizballah have been working overtime to ease tensions and not let this become a general sectarian fight.
Lebanon's best hope is a strong army, capable of meeting and defeating ISIS. I hope that they receive the weapons to do the job, because the threat of ISIS looms.
UPDATE:
Here's a link from Lebanon's Daily Star, it seems that elements of the FSA and other militias are cooperating with or actually joining ISIS near Qalamoun, further evidence that arms to the FSA are a bad idea.