Up front I want to warn readers that I'm going to talk about the new campaign against ISIL/ISIS/IS (or whatever) in purely political terms. I am not trying to minimize the human impact of our military actions, but - honestly - this is going to have an impact on how people vote.
Having said that, the Republican noise out there wants us to think there is a wave building and - while some things make the map unfavorable - at least right now, there is no wave for either party. Steve Singiser's excellent diary today covered some of the reasons why a bit of a lead is not a "wave," as it was for the GOP in 2010.
Frankly, a wave could develop for either party for a variety of reasons - but the environment is actually just as unfriendly (if not more so) for Republicans than it is for Democrats. That's what happened in 1998 (for the Democrats) and again in 2002 for the GOP. And there is plenty of evidence for this on lots of fronts:
Overall, President Obama might be unpopular, and the institution of Congress is more unpopular, but voters HATE the Republicans in Congress. And that stacking order has not changed in more than a year - it's baked in at this point. We even have several polls that tell us the usual sentiment ("I hate everybody but my own Congressman") is now, "I hate them all - including my Congressman." And even with all the gerrymandering thanks to the 2010 elections and subsequent census changes, the experts who have time to watch and analyze all of the house races are forecasting a gain for the GOP in single digits -- at the most for them.
And, yes, the Senate map is difficult for the Democrats. With a gain of 6 seats tipping the chamber to the GOP, Democratic candidates are behind in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana, and deadlocked or only slightly ahead in Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, and even in Iowa. But look at the other seats: Republicans in trouble in Georgia, Kentucky and Kansas. And in a Republican "wave" environment, the Senate seats in purple Virginia (where Mark Warner is dusting Ed Gillespie in the polls), Colorado (where - at least so far - Mark Udall has been consistently ahead), Michigan, and New Hampshire would be close. To date - the Democrats lead in all of those states. Now, if we were on the cusp of a Democratic wave, the leads for Democrats in all of these states would be stronger, and you'd see - probably - Susan Collins (R) in Maine, in trouble, and Natalie Tennant (D) in West Virginia running even or better against Shelly Moore Capito (R) in her battle for that open Democratic Senate seat.
Finally, there are the Governors' races. And it's there that you get evidence of a real voter push against Republicans. Consistent polling shows Republican incumbent Governors are in real fights in Maine, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Mexico, Kansas, and even Alaska. Democrats are also mounting stiff challenges in open seats in Arizona and Texas. Even in Ohio, where Democratic candidate Ed Fitzgerald has had his campaign falter, Republican John Kasich leads him by double digits - but with only 40% of the vote!
In contrast, there are only two Democratic incumbents in jeopardy: Dannel Malloy in Connecticut and Pat Quinn in Illinois. While the open Democratic seat in Arkansas looks to be in jeopardy, there is no sign that Republicans are even in the running to grab any other of the open seats in Massachusetts, Maryland or Hawaii (and all have elected Republican governors in recent GOP wave years).
So there is no wave right now. But could there be? And could it tilt to the Democrats?
The answer is yes!
How?
Well, first and foremost there is that "war" again ISIL. There is going to be pressure to fund certain aspects of this, and put a vote on record to support the policy. That is a vote the President is certain to win - and it is stated Republican policy to never give the President a win. You can imagine the ads Democrats can run if the GOP refuses to bring up a vote or if a Republican votes "nay" on it, can't you? "Congressman X thinks its more important to embarrass our President than to support our troops and stop the terrorists. It's time we put an end to politics as usual, and send a message by electing Candidate Y, a real American who will fight the terrorists abroad and support working Americans at home." You get the idea.
It is very, very likely that the President's approval rating will go up. Polls show that the public overwhelmingly support the Obama policy on this issue - even if they are not sure it will work. If there is quiet but steady success on the ISIL front between now and Election Day (and nothing else comes up to get in the way), the approval will be slow and stead, and we may even enter November with President Obama at or above 50%. And - if there is a spectacular success (ISIL folds like a deck of cards, or we get the leadership) then it could be a bigger deal than that. The more popular the President, the less that side of the current tug of war between his detractors and the GOP's becomes important in the outcome. Of course, any spectacular failure could have the opposite effect.
Other issues: The overt war on voting the GOP has declared on core Democratic voter groups drives higher turnout among Democrats. We are already seeing higher requests for early ballots among Democrats in North Carolina - where the issue of voter ID laws has been on the forefront. It's also clearly playing into the impending loss by Tom Corbett, the Republican Governor in Pennsylvania.
Immigration still helps the Democrats with the Latino vote, although it would have been better had President Obama taken executive action on this issue again before Election Day. While there is disappointment in the Latino community about the delay, it is abundantly clear that continued Republican control of any or all of the government means this group of voters will continue to be treated with outright hostility. Some may stay home this year, but those that don't will vote for the Democrats.
Obamacare and impeachment. Many safe Republicans are truly loony-toons, and are going to continue to go down the road of obstruction and impeachment. Each time one of them speaks and gets publicity - while it might not hurt in their own district - it ripples out nationally and reminds the rest of the voting public why this Republican party cannot govern responsibly. Overall, the Republican brand is harshly negative and any reinforcement of this is bad news for them.
And the codicil to this is women. Every poll, even the ones that are positive for the GOP overall, shows women don't like the Republican brand and are motivated to vote for the Democrats. We don't need to repeat all the reasons why that is (and there are many), but it seems obvious to many political analysts that attempting to paper over these tall issues by supporting turning birth control into an over-the-counter medication is tone-deaf and patronizing, and not likely to work.
If all of this comes to fruition and turnout is supported by these concerns, then there is a strong possibility of a Democratic wave in November. Just that fact alone means it is not a GOP wave year. The environment is fertile ground and it is going to take some work - but it is up to activists across the country to wave off whatever lack of enthusiasm they may be feeling and push to get the vote out.