Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia
Leading Off:
• FL-26: At long last, McLaughlin & Associates has come out of hiding after their epic Eric Cantor debacle sent them scurrying for the deepest, dankest spider-hole in North America. Amazingly, Florida Republican Carlos Curbelo was neither too sensible to avoid hiring them nor too embarrassed to eschew releasing their results, which have him leading Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia 44-40. That's a big change from Garcia's 46-39 lead in an unreleased May poll, but hey, this is McLaughlin we're talking about.
Unfortunately, even though we're dealing with the worst pollster in the country, it's all too possible to believe that Garcia's in trouble thanks to his ethical troubles. On top of that, Democratic turnout may suffer a particularly steep midterm dropoff in the 26th District, which is 68 percent Hispanic. The Garcia campaign's response isn't heartening, either. They merely said Curbelo's data "isn't very convincing evidence." A responsive poll would be much more compelling than mere words, even if the numbers you're responding to come from McLaughlin.
Senate:
• GA-Sen: Democrat Michelle Nunn worked pretty closely with members of the Bush family as CEO of the Points of Light Foundation and has even cited George H.W. Bush, the organizations godfather, in some of her ads. But unsurprisingly, party politics has trumped his non-profit ties: Bush 41 has decided to endorse Republican David Perdue.
• Polling: Since we're already in the middle of September of an election year, the valve on the polling fire hose is really starting to open up. Here's what Monday brought us on the Senate front:
• AK-Sen: Harstad Research (D): Mark Begich (D-inc): 45, Dan Sullivan (R): 40, Mark Fish (Lib): 6 (Aug.: 41-40 Begich) (conducted for Senate Majority PAC and Put Alaska First).
• AR-Sen: Answers Unlimited: Mark Pryor (D-inc): 46, Tom Cotton (R): 42 (conducted for Southern Progress, a pro-Democratic group).
• AR-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R): Cotton (R): 47, Pryor (D-inc): 43 (July: 51-44 Cotton) (among registered voters).
• GA-Sen: Landmark Communications (R): Michelle Nunn (D): 46, David Perdue (R): 43, Amanda Swafford (Lib): 6 (Aug.: 47-40 Nunn).
• IL-Sen: APC Research: Dick Durbin (D-inc): 55, Jim Oberweis (R): 32, Sharon Hansen (Lib): 5 (among registered voters).
• MI-Sen: Mitchell Research: Gary Peters (D): 43, Terri Lynn Land (R): 41 (Aug.: 46-44 Peters).
• MN-Sen: Mason-Dixon: Al Franken (D-inc): 49, Mike McFadden (R): 36.
• NC-Sen: American Insights (R): Kay Hagan (D-inc): 43, Thom Tillis (R): 34, Sean Haugh (Lib): 5 (Feb.: 38-35 Hagan).
• NC-Sen: Elon University: Hagan 45, Tillis 41 (43-37 Hagan among registered voters).
• NH-Sen: CNN/ORC: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 48, Scott Brown (R): 48 (51-44 Shaheen among registered voters).
• NH-Sen: Kiley & Company (D): Shaheen: 51, Brown: 43 (Early Sept.: 51-43) (conducted for the DSCC).
• NH-Sen: Magellan Strategies (R): Brown: 46, Shaheen: 44 (July: 46-41 Shaheen) (conducted for Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire).
• NH-Sen: Rasmussen: Shaheen: 48, Brown: 42 (March: Shaheen 50, Brown 41).
New Hampshire's all over the place, with numbers from CNN and Magellan that will excite Republicans, while others—the DSCC's responsive poll from Kiley, and, amusingly, Rasmussen—continue to show a solid leads for Jeanne Shaheen. It'll be interesting to see how the
Daily Kos Elections Poll Explorer adjusts its expectations after all these polls are inputted. Right now, it gives Shaheen an 85 percent chance at victory; check in first thing Tuesday morning to see how the new data changes things.
North Carolina, meanwhile, continues to look good for Kay Hagan, though that American Insights poll is far too optimistic (a recently released Democratic internal had Hagan up 3). On the flipside, Georgia keeps looking tougher for Michelle Nunn. Landmark, though a Republican pollster, was the only firm consistently finding her in the lead, but even they see the race tightening now.
Those Alaska results, on the other hand, are pretty positive for Mark Begich, particularly in light of Harstad's previously unreleased trendlines showing that Dan Sullivan earned a post-primary bounce that turned the contest into a 1-point race. Nate Silver, however, offers a note of caution, pointing out that Alaska polling has over-estimated Democratic performance in every statewide race since 2000, by an average of 7 points:
That's a pretty rough track record for all pollsters combined, and it also has implications for the state's gubernatorial race this year, which is also shaping up to be competitive. But as is always the case with poll aggregation, a lot of bad data can drown out the good, as we saw in Harry Reid's famous re-election campaign in 2010. The problem is we have no way of knowing right now who, if anyone, is on the mark.
As for Michigan, we have some of the usual weirdness from Mitchell Research. Very sketchily, Mitchell says that an unreleased one-day poll he conducted last Wednesday had Peters up 8 (and GOP Gov. Rick Snyder up just 1 instead of 5 in the gubernatorial contest), so he's claiming that the Senate race shifted 6 points in three days. No.
Gubernatorial:
• NE-Gov: Democrat Chuck Hassebrook previously expressed his displeasure with Republican Secretary of State John Gale for allowing Pete Ricketts to substitute Mike Foley as his running mate after Lt. Gov. Lavon Heidemann resigned following domestic abuse allegations, even though the deadline for such a swap had passed. Hassebrook, however, said he wouldn't sue to stop the switcheroo, but that's not stopping Libertarian Mark Elworth from filing a legal challenge. Democrats are probably glad, though, that Elworth is trying to keep Heidemann's name on the ballot, since if he's successful, Ricketts will have to deal with an unpleasant headache right through Election Day.
• Polling: There's also plenty of gubernatorial polling as well. All surveys below are of likely voters except where noted:
• AR-Gov: Answers Unlimited: Asa Hutchinson (R): 44, Mike Ross (D): 44 (conducted for Southern Progress, a pro-Democratic group).
• AR-Gov: Gravis Marketing (R): Asa Hutchinson (R): 46, Mike Ross (D): 42 (July: 49-46 Hutchinson) (among registered voters).
• GA-Gov: Landmark Communications: Jason Carter (D): 47, Nathan Deal (R-inc): 44, Andrew Hunt (Lib): 4 (Aug.: 44-40 Carter).
• IL-Gov: APC Research: Pat Quinn (D-inc): 48, Bruce Rauner (R): 37 (among registered voters).
• ME-Gov: PPP: Mike Michaud (D): 43, Paul LePage (R-inc): 42, Eliot Cutler: 11 (May: 43-39-15 Michaud) (conducted for Maine Conservation Voters).
• MI-Gov: Mitchell Research: Rick Snyder (R-inc): 46, Mark Schauer (D): 41 (Aug.: 47-46 Schauer).
• MN-Gov: Mason-Dixon: Mark Dayton (D-inc): 45, Jeff Johnson (R): 33.
• NM-Gov: Research & Polling: Susana Martinez (R-inc): 54, Gary King (D): 36 (Aug. 50-41 Martinez).
• OH-Gov: Columbus Dispatch: John Kasich (R-inc): 59, Ed FitzGerald (D): 29 (among registered voters).
• RI-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies: Allan Fung (R): 42, Gina Raimondo (D): 42 (conducted for Fung).
A few thoughts:
• Those Illinois numbers are simply too good to be true. A recent DGA internal put Pat Quinn up 43-40, which was the first time anyone had him leading since forever. And there's just no way he's actually ahead double digits when private Democratic polling has him just 3.
• This is the first poll of Raimondo vs. Fung in a year, and only the second one ever. Even if the results are accurate, it'll be much easier for Raimondo to pick up undecideds in ocean-blue Rhode Island. But still, now would be a very good time to release some contradictory polling, if for no other reason than to tamp down any emerging narrative that Fung might be competitive.
• Perhaps the most troubling thing about PPP's Maine survey is that in a two-way matchup, Michaud only holds a 50-46 lead on LePage. Last November, the last time PPP checked in on a direct head-to-head, Michaud was crushing LePage 53-39. That's a pretty disturbing trendline, and the polling average has this race super-tight, with less than two points separating the major-party candidates.
Our belief all along had been that as Cutler fades, Michaud would benefit, but things haven't developed quite that way. And most troubling of all is that LePage does finally seem to be extending his reach past the 38 percent plurality that supported him in 2010. Consequently, Daily Kos Elections is moving this race from Lean Democrat to Tossup.
• When we last checked in on Ed FitzGerald, his campaign appeared to be what triage teams call "expectant." Now he's flatlined, as confirmed by all the available data, including the Columbus Dispatch's unusual poll conducted entirely by mail. So we're also moving the Ohio governor's race, from Likely R to Safe R.
House:
• CA-26: We're always a bit reluctant to rely on seekrit polling data that hasn't seen the light of day, because there are always endless rumors and so much of it is b.s. But Roll Call is a hell of lot more reliable than @RandomPollDude on Twitter, so when Emily Cahn reports that Democrats say their polls have Rep. Julia Brownley in a "dead heat" with Republican Jeff Gorrell, it's something worth noting.
• MI-11: Accidental Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, who got trounced by foreclosure kingpin Dave Trott in last month's GOP primary, now says he's "seriously considering" running a write-in campaign this fall. Considering that Bentivolio took just 34 percent in the primary, it's hard to see many Bad Santa partisans hewing to his side in the general election, but Democrat Bobby McKenzie would undoubtedly be happy to have this sideshow pull its sleigh into town.
• MN-02: Comedian Bill Maher has picked GOP Rep. John Kline as the target of his "Flip a District" campaign to unseat a Republican member of Congress. Maher promises to do everything he can to defeat Kline, though exactly what that consists of isn't quite clear. (Roll Call says he'll "periodically travel to the 2nd District to do stand-up routines and talk about the congressman.")
Maher's definitely picked a very tough target. Kline faces a rematch from Democrat Mike Obermueller, who lost by 8 points in 2012. This time, outside groups don't seem to be interested in playing here, and the DCCC only rates this as a lower-priority "emerging race." What's more, having a polarizing figure like Maher parachute into a district to which he has no ties—a one-man orange hat brigade—might do more harm than good. Obermueller faces long odds, though, so he might as well take the risk.
• MN-08: Rick Nolan's joyride in the old AMC Gremlin may turn out to be very brief indeed. Outside spending has already topped $2 million in Minnesota's 8th, roughly evenly split between the parties, which makes it (as of today) the fifth-most expensive House race in the nation. And Nolan, the Democratic congressman who staged an unlikely comeback last cycle after serving three terms all the way back in the 1970s, was unusually candid in a recent interview, admitting the toll this third-party money has taken on him:
"I was running like 10 or 12 percent ahead of this guy, but a couple million dollars of beating up on you and suddenly you're in a dead heat," Nolan said. "I'm confident we're going to be able to win this thing, but it's going to be a close race."
Perhaps this was a canny play to generate interest in the race, because nothing fires up donors more than a poll showing a tie game. But given Nolan's propensity for less-than-agile political maneuvering, this seems more like an inappropriate bit of over-sharing. It's not like anyone doesn't think this is a competitive contest, so admitting weakness only makes your enemy even more eager to pounce.
• NH-02: The story of state Rep. Marilinda Garcia's health care coverage has managed to get even weirder. Garcia is the Club for Growth darling who, in an interview after winning last week's GOP primary, railed against Obamacare—then refused to say whether she was covered under it. Now Garcia's elaborated by claiming she's on a month-to-month plan that only insures catastrophic care, the very kind of bogus non-coverage the Affordable Care Act has tried to stamp out.
Indeed, her own campaign recognizes that her insurance policy is not compliant with the ACA, which as Josh Marshall notes, could be seen as a tea party "badge of honor." But the real story here is that Garcia, who lives with her parents, works as a part-time harp teacher, and makes just $100 a year as a state representative, is, at least on paper, the exact sort of person who would benefit from Obamacare's generous subsidies. The fact that she wants to block people in situations much like hers from obtaining access to health care coverage is very noteworthy.
• NJ-03: On Monday, we got our first-ever polls of New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, a potentially swingy open seat that Democrats are hoping to pick up from Republicans. The first survey, conducted by GBA Strategies for the DCCC, is actually the less-optimistic of the two, finding Republican Tom MacArthur edging Democrat Aimee Belgard 46-43. The second, from Stockton College, isn't too different, though, and pegs the race as a 42-42 tie. The D-Trip and the House Majority PAC have already spent over $725,000 here, but outside GOP groups haven't done anything so far, either because they're confident in MacArthur or are just happy to rely on his personal wealth.
Grab Bag:
• President-by-LD: Stephen Wolf brings us interactive maps of Georgia and South Carolina visualizing the results of the 2012 presidential election by state legislative district. You can find his previous maps here.
Republicans hold clear majorities in both state legislatures. However, Democrats are still able to win some pretty red seats in South Carolina, especially in the northern part of the state. In Georgia, Republicans hold every Romney seat in the legislature plus a few Obama districts.
• Radio: Jeff Singer was a guest on this Sunday's edition of The Kudzu Vine, discussing Senate and gubernatorial races throughout the South. You can listen to the show here. A big thank you to hosts David McLaughlin and Catherine Smith for having Jeff on and giving him the chance to focus on the still-crazy politics of his adopted state of Louisiana.
• Roll Call: Fun! Our friends over at Roll Call are upping the ante on PPP's famous "where should we poll" polls: You can vote to select which states the paper will send reporters Alexis Levinson and Emily Cahn to next, based on the races you want to see them cover. Levinson is doing the Senate and Cahn the House; I picked Kansas for the former and Nebraska's 2nd for the latter, though both contests are looking like serious tossups. Can't wait to see how this all plays out.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: Both candidates have a new spot out. Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has a compare-and-contrast with Republican Dan Sullivan: The narrator portrays Begich as an independent voice, while Sullivan hurt Alaska as state attorney general.
On the GOP side, Sullivan's wife Julie Fate Sullivan appears on his behalf, defending Sullivan's ties to the state. She argues that he left to serve the country at the State Department and in the armed forced, and decries Begich for attacking his military service. Crossroads GPS also goes after Begich, tying him to Obama.
• AR-Sen: The NRSC argues that Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor has changed in Washington, and not in a good way.
• CO-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Udall goes after Republican Cory Gardner on abortion and contraceptives, arguing that Gardner wants a bill to outlaw birth control. Meanwhile, the Hunter Defense Fund spends $150,000 for Gardner.
• GA-Sen: Democrat Michelle Nunn pushes back against Republican attacks on her over immigration.
• IA-Sen: Democrats have been working hard to portray Republican Joni Ernst as someone who wants to gut Social Security. Ernst pushes back, saying she wants to protect the program for seniors like her parents. On the Democratic side, Rep. Bruce Braley stresses tax breaks to help unemployed workers. The Sierra Club and Environmental Defense Fund meanwhile go after Ernst on education and the environment.
• KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts goes positive, stressing his jobs record. Roberts touts his work in securing the National Bio and Agro-defense Facility. However, Slate's David Weigel notes that Roberts voted against critical funding for the NBAF in 2014.
• KY-Sen: We have another entry in the "politicians firing guns in ads" archive. Democrat Alison Grimes does some skeet shooting while describing how she's not Barack Obama. She also talks about how Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell is a Duke loving-jobs hating-asshole who can't hold a gun to save his life (I'm paraphrasing).
• LA-Sen: The DSCC goes after Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy for putting millionaires' interests far ahead of seniors.
• MI-Sen: The Environmental Defense Fund attacks Republican Terri Lynn Land on pollution.
• MN-Sen: Gabrielle Giffords group Americans for Responsible Solutions spends $131,000 for Democratic Sen. Al Franken. On the GOP side, Mike McFadden portrays Franken as "an invisible senator with invisible results". Unmentioned: The Invisible Senator sounds like the lamest name for a superhero ever.
• NH-Sen: NextGen Climate spends another $175,000 against Republican Scott Brown.
• Senate Majority PAC: Various expenditures from the pro-Democratic group.
• AZ-Gov: The RGA once again goes after Democrat Fred DuVal for college tuition increases.
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley argues that Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy's policies are raising taxes as wages stay the same.
• FL-Gov: The Florida GOP features Republican Gov. Rick Scott's wife Ann Scott praising him.
• HI-Gov: Well, this is an interesting tactic. The RGA goes after Democrat David Ige, tying him to departing Gov. Neil Abercrombie. The narrator argues that Ige voted for $800 million in new taxes and fees, making it hard for people to make a living in the state, before praising Republican Duke Aiona.
It's nothing new to link a candidate to an unpopular figure from his party. But what's different here is that Ige challenged Abercrombie in the primary and beat him. It's pretty odd that the RGA thinks they can portray Ige as an Abercrombie ally given that Ige was the person to send Abercrombie onto retirement.
• MA-Gov: Democrat Martha Coakley is out with her first general election ad, a pretty boring positive spot touting her plans.
• MN-Gov: The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (the state Democratic party) goes after Republican Jeff Johnson on education cuts.
• NH-Gov: Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan has been viewed as the clear favorite against Republican Walt Havenstein. However, Hassan evidently takes him seriously enough to run a spot attacking his business record.
• AZ-02: House Majority PAC attacks Republican Martha McSally on Social Security. According to their press release, the ad will start to air for a small $67,000.
• CA-07: The DCCC hits Republican Doug Ose for enriching himself during his previous service in Congress.
• CA-52: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters ties Republican Carl DeMaio to the tea party, saying that they both oppose equal pay for women.
• CO-06: CounterPAC hits Republican Rep. Mike Coffman, arguing that the multitude of super PAC ads that are running on his behalf means he's answering to secret donors. In the past, CounterPAC has criticized politicians from both parties over transparency.
• FL-26: Florida New Majority spends $198,000 for Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia.
• MN-07: The DCCC spends $167,000 against Republican Torrey Westrom.
• MN-08: Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan goes after Republican Stewart Mills on the minimum wage. Mills attacks Nolan for being part of the mess in Washington.
• NH-02: Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster wastes no time in depicting Republican rival Marilinda Garcia as a tea party extremist.
• NJ-03: Republican Tom MacArthur has a pair of 15-second spots attacking Democrat Aimee Belgard as a lying liar who lies.
• NY-11: Republican Rep. Michael Grimm's fundraising plummeted after his April indictment, but apparently he found some money under the cushions for an ad. Grimm goes after Democrat Domenic Recchia on taxes and bridge tolls.
• TX-23: Republican Will Hurd is out with his first general election spot, contrasting his CIA service with Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego's political career. From the "Department of Things That Get Old Very Quickly", three different puns are made about Hurd's name.
• VA-10: Both candidates are on the air here. Democrat John Foust attacks Republican Barbara Comstock on abortion. Comstock's spot features retiring Republican Rep. Frank Wolf praising her record.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, and Steve Singiser.