If his lead keeps eroding, Bruce Rauner (R-IL) may not be this happy for long.
If there is one piece of sage poll-watching advice I am happy to share with everyone, it is this: do not get too high, or too low, based on the outcome of any single poll. Last week, a ton of Democratic supporters launched into a brief, but awesomely dark, pessimism on social media when confronted with two incredibly fugly poll results from Quinnipiac. Subsequent polls that were closer to the fairway from both Suffolk and Rasmussen (briefly) curtailed the hyperventilation.
However, where you do need to start paying attention is when you see some movement from a pollster that has looked at a race several times, especially when it correlates to other data released around the same time. It might not be relevant in every situation, but the chances seem a bit higher that something real is going on when a fairly regular observer of a race sees movement, and others seem to be singing from the same hymnal.
More on that after the jump, where you will also find the 30 polls that got thrown into the mix over the past four days (September 19-22).
AR-Sen (Hickman Analytics—D): Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 46, Tom Cotton (R) 43
CO-Sen (Gravis—R): Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 39
IA-Sen (Rasmussen): Bruce Braley (D) 43, Joni Ernst (R) 43
KS-Sen (Rasmussen): Greg Orman (I) 45, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 40
KY-Sen (Ipsos-Reuters): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 46, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42
MI-Sen (Magellan—R): Gary Peters (D) 45, Terri Land (R) 40
MI-Sen (PPP—D): Gary Peters (D) 47, Terri Land (R) 40
MI-Sen (We Ask America—R): Gary Peters (D) 42, Terri Land (R) 39
NC-Sen (High Point University): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 42, Thom Tillis (R) 40, Sean Haugh (L) 6
NH-Sen (PPP—D): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 44
AZ-Gov (Tarrance Group—R): Doug Ducey (R) 44, Fred DuVal (D) 38, Barry Hess (L) 6
CO-Gov (Gravis—R): Bob Beauprez (R) 48, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 43
GA-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 45, Jason Carter (D) 44
HI-Gov (Merriman River Group): David Ige (D) 43, Duke Aiona (R) 39, Mufi Hannemann (I) 8
IA-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 46, Jack Hatch (D) 40
IL-Gov (We Ask America—R): Bruce Rauner (R) 44, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 41
KS-Gov (Rasmussen): Paul Davis (D) 47, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 43
MA-Gov (Rasmussen): Charlie Baker (R) 42, Martha Coakley (D) 42
ME-Gov (Frederick Polls for Cutler): Gov. Paul LePage (R) 35, Michael Michaud (D) 35, Eliot Cutler (I) 19
MI-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 44, Mark Schauer (D) 42
MI-Gov (We Ask America—R): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 43, Mark Schauer (D) 43
NH-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 52, Walt Havenstein (R) 43
PA-Gov (Muhlenberg College): Tom Wolf (D) 54, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 33
CA-07 (Garin Hart Yang—D): Rep. Ami Bera (D) 47, Doug Ose (R) 43
IL-13 (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Rep. Rodney Davis (R) 55, Ann Callis (D) 36
KY-06 (Lake Research—D): Rep. Andy Barr (R) 45, Elisabeth Jensen (D) 36
KY-06 (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Rep. Andy Barr (R) 55, Elisabeth Jensen (D) 36
MN-02 (Remington Research—R): Rep. John Kline (R) 54, Mike Obermueller (D) 32
NY-11 (GBA Strategies—D): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) 46, Dominic Recchia (D) 46
NY-24 (Siena): Rep. Dan Maffei (D) 50, John Katko (R) 42
In that smattering of data, I am going to (perhaps) surprise you by asking you to focus your attention to the offering from the Republican polling house known as "We Ask America."
The firm has, over the years, been a bit maligned around these parts for an obvious conflict of interest (they are the data/research arm of the conservative Illinois Manufacturing Association), and for producing (perhaps predictably) awfully rosy polling numbers for Republican candidates.
Over the weekend, they dropped new data in the Illinois gubernatorial election that, to the untrained eye, might reinforce that notion. After all, they had Republican challenger Bruce Rauner leading incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by a three-point margin (44-41).
However, for those who have been keeping up with the polling in the race, this was a pretty big freaking deal. And that is because a quick glance at our polling database shows that Rauner led in the last five W.A.A. polls by an average of nearly 12 points. The most recent poll, which was in the field just three weeks ago, had Rauner +9.
Often, journalists who write up polls make an ill-advised error: they tend to compare polls from wholly different firms as if it were an apples-to-apples comparison. In the worst case scenarios (nominally hypothetical, though I'd bet cash that it has happened), they might compare a recent poll by a Republican firm to a firm two months ago by a Democratic firm in order to draw the "OMG! GOP surrrrrge!! Dems are doomed!" narrative. We saw that last week when there was much hyperventilation about a single Quinnipiac set of polls, which were the first to feature the Q poll's likely voter screen (which, if I might editorialize for a second, may need just a teensy recalibration, considering how their results haven't even been replicated by GOP pollsters).
But what a fundamentally sound observer might look for, instead, is the apples-to-apples comparison between two polls by the same pollster, employing the same screen. By that measure, it is safe to say that Illinois is definitely moving, even if we don't buy...say...that Chicago Tribune poll from a couple of weeks ago that claimed a Quinn lead into the double digits. We Ask America had been Rauner's best pollster all along. If they have it as a three-point race, Republicans may have justification for being concerned.
Lest you think that is just a bit of Democratic cheerleading in a race long thought lost, consider that the same dynamic can paint more pessimistic pictures for Democratic candidates, as well. Consider PPP's set of polls in Ohio, which included the gubernatorial election. When PPP showed the race going from a tossup to a six-point lead for Republican Gov. John Kasich in a month, that helped to reinforce other polls that showed the race getting away from Democrat Ed FitzGerald.
So there is something to watch as we head into the final six weeks: watch the movement within a series of individual polls and pollsters. Sure, any poll could be susceptible to being off the fairway. But, especially as the volume of polls begins to rise, making apples-to-apples comparisons, where possible, might give an interested observer a "truer" image of the trajectory of a race.