Well, it's official now: the only road to the eruption site from the researchers' shelter at Dreki is now under half a dozen meters of glowing rock. But if only that was the only new problem people are facing - there's lots going on that's trying to shut things down:
* Shutting down traffic in Paris
* Shutting down water supplies in east Iceland
* Shutting down towns from smothering gas
* Shutting down scientific investigations
Let's take a look at each of these current or potential shutdowns in today's Eldfjallavakt.
Let's start with today's lava flow map:
(Credit: Jarðvísindastofnun)
You'll notice two things right away. One, the northern flow has overflowed the road. There's a long detour, and it too will be blocked soon. I do not know how readily one can drive around offroad in that particular area, but obviously that's a potentially dangerous prospect. One can get stuck even on the roads in the highlands, especially this time of year - and the last thing one wants is to get their car stuck in the path of an advancing lava flow.
I have no clue what they plan to do about this. Probably just drive around and try not to get stuck, I don't really know what else they could do.
You may have noticed all of the question marks on the south side. The explanation is quite simple: the south flow has clearly done something, but there's no good informtion on what. Those of you watching the Míla cams have noticed how nasty the weather has been. It may be technically fall that just arrived, but when you're working at the foot of the glacier, the only seasons are "winter" and "almost winter". And winter has come.
The scientists working on the scene say it's like working on the moon. They have to bundle up to the point that you can barely see each other's faces - and yet still have to do standard precautions like masks. Visibility is low and the winds are howling and blowing snow and sand. It's become very hard to work - but it's their job, so they still head out. A lot of equipment is battery powered and will outright stop giving readings if not serviced.
Of course, some places have no equipment. Someone looking all of the SO2 meters today would have thought there were no pollution events. They'd be wrong. Djúpivogur was hit hard and many things shut down. Children were kept indoors, and people were complaining of pain in the eyes, nose and throat. "We need to accept this as with any other dog bite," said an officer with the local police, who then took the opportunity to joke, "We can't blame this one on the government."
(Credit: Ólafur Björnsson)
But Djúpivogur is right in our backyard. The pollution is not staying in our backyard:
Remember that this has only been going on for less than a month. It could go on for many more months or even years.
Pollution from the eruption on Holuhraun has compounded other pollution problems in Paris to create a pollution emergency situation. The city went over their danger mark and the mayor has been trying to get permission to ban cars from driving every other day.
The Icelandic national protective services, after getting a lot of requests, evaluated the possibility of providing everyone in the potential "line of fire" with gas masks, but ruled it out because it's too large of an area. They're focused more on setting up a lot more meters to get rid of the gaps and to try to be able to issue better warnings in advance.
The wind reversal starts tonight - but it's hard to know where the gas is going to go. While I really doubt there'll be a major problem this soon after the reversal, I'm shutting my windows before I go to sleep and turning my heat on, just in case; I have a parrot, and birds have sensitive lungs.
(Credit: Ingó Herbertsson)
The same article raises a very serious concern: that a caldera eruption of Bárðarbunga could shut down water supplies across many places in the east. Grímsvötn in 2011, a VEI-4 eruption, contaminated enough water supplies with ash to the extent that in many places people had to resort to trucking water into town. Bárðarbunga has had VEI-6 eruptions a good number of times, and plenty of VEI-5s. Ash research on past eruptions shows potential contaminating ash reaching out very long distances from the caldera.
Just the opposite of what we heard speculated from Vulcanologist Haraldur Sigurðsson a couple weeks ago, he now thinks that the volume being displaced by the subsidence in the caldera is less than the volume coming out on Holuhraun. He thinks the most likely reason is that the magma is expanding as it rises to the surface.
Personally, there's so much uncertainty on the exact figures of... well, everything, even at the surface, let alone deep underground, I don't think we have anywhere near the level of accuracy to comparing caldera subsidence displacement to Holuhraun outflow.
He also subscribes to a theory, that I've seen before, that the same hot spot that's created (and is still creating) Iceland is the one that created the Siberian Traps 250 million years ago. Of course, remember the old trading adage: "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results"
Picture time (sorry, not too many and no video today!)
(Credit: RÚV)
(Credit: Árni Sæberg / AFP / Getty Images)
(Credit: Stefano Di Nicolo / AP)
(Credit: Bernard Meric / AFP / Getty Images)
(Credit: Bernard Meric / AFP / Getty Images)
(Credit: Bernard Meric / AFP / Getty Images)
(Note the tire tracks in the above, for scale)
Lastly... I want to present a somewhat different article. Þríhnjúkagígur is a really special thing:
(Credit: Björn Rosdahl)
It's a shallow volcanic magma chamber that, rather than filling in or collapsing, drained out and left a wide-open cavity full of air, the size of a football field. To visit it, you have to be winched down on a cable lift - but since the vent isn't perfectly straight, the occupants have to help push of the walls. Obviously such things aren't perfectly safe and one could envision a tourist getting injured at some point.
What you don't expect is a guide to get life-threatening injuries at the parking lot.
But that's exactly what happened. For whatever reason - most likely slipping on wet moss - she plunged 7 meters down into a narrow fissure in the ground, along with an American tourist. The tourist's injuries were not too serious. Her injuries were - she received major head trauma and probably would have died.
But enter the Björgunarsveitir, the search and rescue squads. Dozens of them arrived rapidly on the scene along with a coast guard helicopter. Having already realized the challenges there would be trying to rescue someone from the magma chamber itself, they had already stashed equipment on-site and were able to rapidly get the two out of the crevase and to the hospital. The guide is currently in the critical care unit and under sedation. I have trouble imagining that she would have had any chance of survival had they not been so quick to respond and so prepared.
And preparation takes money. The sort of money that you helped raise. Which is what makes me so happy to get to announce our raffle prize winner. :)
As you all know, yesterday we narrowed it down to ten finalists, chosen randomly with a weighting based on how much they donated. The ten are:
1) Dallasdoc
2) oortdust
3) zeke7273
4) heraldstorm
5) vgtal
6) Nancy Wightman
7) rabidsamfan
8) Swizzle
9) Jeremy McGee
10) doingbusiness
As per the recommendations yesterday, there will be no weightings again, just a random pick (in python, "random.randint(1,10)"). Ready? And the result is...
#3. Zeke7273, you're the winner of our raffle prize! I'll get in touch with you by private message. To all of you others, though, let me know if there's anything I can do for you. :)
Update, 13:45: Today's SO2 forecast has shifted further east, and even more, they're saying that the wind patterns aren't going to allow it to accumulate long in any area. Great news to hear :)
Update, 21:55: No new article this evening, sorry - I'm going to take the evening off :)