Let's face it, if you look at the baseline fundamentals of the economy, Barack Obama has done an amazing job. Unemployment is down. The Stock Market is creating wealth at unprecedented levels. Interest rates on purchases remain low. The cost of energy relative to other nations in the world remains low (for good or evil.) GDP is amazeballs - stronger than virtually any nation in the world. Instead of embracing austerity like many goverments in Europe or attempting to punitively extract vengence from the wealthy, Obama walked a fine line between the extremes of both sides of the debate and set in motion policy that brought America back - and fast. And he did it without creating a new economic bubble (remember those?).
So why does he get virtually no credit for this "economic miracle?" Simple: the average person is still broke.
At the beginning of September Adam Hartung from that Communist Party rag Forbes wrote:
Economically, President Obama’s administration has outperformed President Reagan’s in all commonly watched categories. Simultaneously the current administration has reduced the deficit, which skyrocketed under Reagan. Additionally, Obama has reduced federal employment, which grew under Reagan (especially when including military personnel,) and truly delivered a “smaller government.” Additionally, the current administration has kept inflation low, even during extreme international upheaval, failure of foreign economies (Greece) and a dramatic slowdown in the European economy.
Over the past six weeks a steady stream of moderate and, indeed, rightwing journos have been echoing Hartung: Barack Obama has [sigh] been good for the economy. And not just a little good, but hella good. Over the past few days, as the threat of the GOP taking the Senate continues to loom (I don't think it's going to happen, BTW - but that's another diary) the traditionally liberal media has begun to ask the next logical question: why doesn't the President and his party get credit for this booming economy?
In latest (Times/CBS News) polling 53% of Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of the economy. Why? To quote John McCain, the fundamentals of the economy are strong.
Well, it's simple - in fact it's so simple that it can be expressed in one chart. And there are plenty of versions of this chart to be found on the internet. Google it and pick your own. I like this one:
That's right. According the the Department of Labor's own (admittedly polished) stats, despite unprecedented growth in productivity compensation has remained flat or actually fallen. So lets take a look at one more chart - and this one is pretty grim. The following was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis:
What this graph shows is that for the first time in modern American history the price of goods has outpaced the increase in wages. If you go back to the Mad Men era, Don Draper was buying his booze and smokes on the cheap. The gap between wages and prices was MASSIVE. Today, we've gone the other way.
In summary, the current economic miracle is a paper tiger. People are working, they're working hard, and they are creating UNPRECEDENTED levels of wealth. But they're not getting to keep any of it for themselves. We have the exact situation the Supply Side economists predicted would lead us into prosperity: tons of money in the economy, in the hands of the rich. But none of it ACTUALLY "trickles down."
America needs a pay raise.
Now, I love me some Barack Obama. I've been with the man since the first. But there's no need for befuddled head-scratching when it comes to understanding why Americans are still angry about the economy. They're working hard, but they're not getting paid what they're worth.
There's a lot we can do about it, starting with a major rise in the minimum wage. Not a "token" rise, mind you - but a serious increase that will inject capital at the bottom of the economy and force an increase in wages across the board. as you can see, we have virtually no need to worry about inflationary pressure. We can stand an increase in pay.
Secondly, we need to undo the Bush-era tax cuts. They were a mistake, pure and simple. They've merely allowed for wealth hoarding and profit taking. A higher personal tax rate will spur re-investment in order to alleviate that personal tax burden. It will incentive investment. We achieve the same result by closing the loopholes that allow for offshore wealth sheltering.
Finally, no new bubbles. The GOP loves a bubble economy. It puts money in people's pockets without actually having to pay them more. It's fact money, of course, but like the Beanie Baby you think is worth $100, you believe the money to be real. Until that bubble bursts.
It's been a hard fight to prevent the next bubble - and we need to stay that way. I fully expect a GOP president to unchain some aspect of the investor economy and feed people with a new bubble - only to allow it to crash five or six years later. Let's invest in a fundamental economy.
I fully believe this administration knows what needs to be done - but they also lack the power to do it without control of the House and Senate. It's a double-edged sword. Punishing Obama for the "bad economy" won't get us a better economy - it just insures that he continues to lack the tools to keep moving forward and fix it.
Conversely, celebrating this economy - as if nothing's wrong - is equally silly. Because there IS something wrong and voters know it. They want more money and they want to feel like their politicians are working on getting it for them. The GOP will promise them more tax cuts (whether or not they're even paying taxes) - so the Democrats need to offer them something real as a counter proposal.
Let's understand the problem - wages - and campaign on proposals that will fix it.