The End is Near: Mayday finally starts spending big on select Democrats
Since its inauguration in early August, the Mayday PAC 'Advantage Gauge' (reporting the PAC-to-end-all-PACs' net differential in independent ad spending for Democrats versus Republicans, as determined by data from FEC filings) has consistently reported a net "advantage Republicans"...until late last week when, for the first time, the needle finally moved into the blue (well, purple really). Join me below the fold for the fascinating details.
The main force behind this tectonic shift was a flurry of big spending late last week on Mayday's newest endorsee, Democrat Paul Clements (running in MI-06 against long-time incumbent Fred Upton, chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee). On Oct. 9th the PAC dropped a whopping $1.4 million on a big basket of TV, online, and direct mail advertising opposing Upton, on the very same day it announced its endorsement of Clements. But this was nothing like the impulse purchase it might seem at first glance. As I previously reported, as early as Sept. 21st (i.e., well before its official endorsement of Clements) Mayday began passing small sums in favor of Clements to the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) for "grassroots and communication services" - code for a re-organization in which PCCC assumed management responsibility of Mayday's campaign activities going forward, in a last-ditch effort to repair the PAC's image following the disaster of its $1+ million support of landslide loser and right-wing nutjob Jim Rubens in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Sources within PCCC have explained to me that the plan was to hit the ground running with Clements, by coming out with anti-Upton ads the very day the endorsement was announced, thus giving Upton little or no time to respond by turning on the dark-money machine that his chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee affords him. If nothing else, that's a refreshing change from the strategy-free "ironic" fumblings that marked Mayday's amateur efforts prior to PCCC's arrival on the scene.
As yet there has been no public polling in MI-06, but conventional wisdom suggests that Upton enjoys the considerable advantage of any incumbent. So, at this point, it's anyone's guess whether Mayday's last-minute money bomb in this race stands a chance of making a difference. But PCCC - unlike Mayday a seasoned campaign organization, led by actual professionals with respectable progressive bona fides - certainly seems to believe there's an opportunity here. And MI-06 is exactly the sort of race that Mayday should have favored from the beginning, presenting a great test-bed for its campaign finance reform thesis: Upton is a notorious feeder at the trough of Big Dark Money, and there are no other pro-Clements PACs involved (which would muddy the water in terms of teasing out Mayday's success in its intervention). Plus, Clements, in turn, appears to be holding up his end of the deal (unlike Rubens, who thumbed his nose at Mayday by signing the Kochs' pledge after receiving Mayday's endorsement): whereas Reform.to (Mayday's database of reform-minded candidates) listed him as "not committed to reform" as late as Oct. 3rd, today (Oct. 14) it lists him as "committed to reform" (i.e., he has within the past few days taken the Mayday pledge).
Also last week, Mayday spent $346K in support of recent endorsee, Democrat Rick Weiland (SD-Sen). Commendable as this support is (Weiland is a fine progressive), it seems a less-than-logical venue for testing Mayday's foundational thesis, given that everybody and his brother has recently jumped into this race with millions of out-of-state dollars - Mayday's own investment here, and its impact on the outcome, can hardly rise above statistical noise. From your diarist's perspective this looks like a bit of mad money PCCC has agreed to let Mayday spend on its own, to keep its founder, Lawrence Lessig, happy and engaged.
Finally, in other (non) news, Mayday has still not spent penny #1 on Democrat Staci Appel's race in IA-03, despite the fact that Appel was one of Mayday's earliest endorsees. This should serve as a cautionary tale for candidates who would woo Mayday's support, demonstrating as it does the fickle nature of the PAC's affection.
UPDATE, 10:25 AM PT - From the Better Late Than Never Dept.: PCCC has just emailed me a press release, dated today, announcing a "six-figure buy" in IA-03 for a Mayday-branded TV ad opposing Staci Appel's opponent. The YouTube version of the ad is here.