The sweltering Arizona heat beat down on me as I knocked on the last door of the day. It had been a long Sunday campaigning, and I was surprised to see the enthusiasm voters in the neighborhood were showing for the election. Reflecting back on the day, I thought it was odd that a so called "GOP leaning neighborhood" would have so many residents who were more inclined to vote for Fred DuVal, Arizona's Democratic candidate for governor, over Doug Ducey, the Republican challenger.
On Sunday, I went door to door to campaign for DuVal, and found that a enormous number of normally independent and republican voters were backing DuVal, for various reasons. Many voters told me that they were tired of spending cuts from the current Republican governor's administration, others believed that DuVal was a moderate who could stop partisan bickering in the state. Some simply didn't like Ducey because he seemed "sleazy", particularly because of how he handled his former company, Coldstone Creamery. Ultimately, I found that many independent voters, including some registered republicans, were more inclined to vote for the Democratic candidate, which made me optimistic. And, even though some polls have said that Ducey has a modest lead, talking to multiple voters has made me quite optimistic.
Now, you're probably thinking that what I'm saying should be taken with a grain of salt. After all, this is merely a personal experience, and the DailyKos elections page has given DuVal a mere 14% chance of winning the election! down from 29% last week. A few polls from weeks ago have showed that Ducey has about a 9 point lead, so why am I still optimistic?
For one, the most recent poll I've come across, conducted by Moore Pooling, has actually given DuVal a 3 point lead. The right wing media of the state has been quick to dismiss such polls, but I do believe that it could be a indicator that the state infamous for it's racist sheriff, horrible immigration laws, and Tea Partier governor is changing fast. But, polls and my personal experience with voters aren't the only things that are making me optimistic about the upcoming election.
I volunteer often with the Arizona Democratic Party, and we've seen a unprecedented number of volunteers coming out to support people like DuVal, as well as vulnerable Democratic congressional candidates like Ann Kirkpatrick and Ron Barber. This unprecedented number of volunteers has resulted in more and more people like myself talking to voters and canvassing. In Arizona, turnout amongst the Hispanic population is often fairly low, but our state party is convinced that turnout will be high this November. We've seen a unexpected high number of early ballots turned in, particularly from young, Latino voters who rarely vote in Gubernatorial and Congressional elections. And, with the number of Democratic volunteers energizing and engaging the populace, the entire state party is confident that we will be successful.
Arizona has a bit of an independent streak, and there are many registered Independents and moderate Republicans. In fact, registered independents outnumber registered Democrats and Republicans in the state, and so far, it seems as if our party has been able to convince the moderate voters to side with DuVal, so we can avoid another Tea Partier in office. If the Democratic Party can give more energy to the DuVal campaign, and try even harder to convince the large moderate voter bloc to give their votes to DuVal, we may win this November.