I've compiled this spreadsheet containing county-by-county benchmarks for statewide candidates in Wisconsin, based on the results of the 2012 presidential election in Wisconsin.
The Democratic benchmarks for each county are in the second-from-the-left column of the spreadsheet, and they are the percentage in each county that a Democratic candidate running in a statewide race in Wisconsin (in 2014, there are four statewide races in Wisconsin: governor/lieutenant governor on a joint ticket and separate races for attorney general, secretary of state, and state treasurer) would need in order to tie the Republican candidate statewide, provided that the partisan lean of each county remains the same as it was in the 2012 presidential election. To put that another way, if a statewide Democratic candidate in Wisconsin is outperforming the Democratic baseline in every one of Wisconsin's 72 counties, he or she is winning the election.
Here's how a tied statewide race would look like on a map according to the baselines:
Map of county baselines in Wisconsin (Dark Blue is 70%+ Democratic, Medium Blue is 60-70% Democratic, Light Blue is 50-60% Democratic, Pink is 50-60% Republican, Red is 60-70% Republican, Dark Red is 70%+ Republican)
If a statewide Democratic candidate in Wisconsin is winning all of the counties shown in varying shades of blue and some of the counties in varying shades of red on that map, he or she is likely winning the election.
Here's a county-by-county list of the Democratic baselines for each county in Wisconsin:
Adams: 50.89%
Ashland: 62.17%
Barron: 45.24%
Bayfield: 59.09%
Brown: 45.57%
Buffalo: 47.97%
Burnett: 43.18%
Calumet: 40.62%
Chippewa: 46.34%
Clark: 41.92%
Columbia: 53.35%
Crawford: 56.63%
Dane: 68.57%
Dodge: 39.15%
Door: 50.02%
Douglas: 62.34%
Dunn: 49.01%
Eau Claire: 53.35%
Florence: 33.16%
Fond du Lac: 61.08%
Forest: 50.77%
Grant: 53.48%
Green: 55.26%
Green Lake: 36.09%
Iowa: 61.89%
Iron: 46.40%
Jackson: 54.08%
Jefferson: 42.63%
Juneau: 50.05%
Kenosha: 52.67%
Kewaunee: 43.76%
La Crosse: 55.24%
Lafayette: 54.26%
Langlade: 40.50%
Lincoln: 46.84%
Manitowoc: 45.05%
Marathon: 43.40%
Marinette: 44.68%
Marquette: 46.62%
Menominee: 83.41%
Milwaukee: 64.69%
Monroe: 46.06%
Oconto: 41.70%
Oneida: 45.39%
Outagamie: 45.56%
Ozaukee: 31.17%
Pepin: 47.60%
Pierce: 46.09%
Polk: 41.92%
Portage: 53.54%
Price: 46.50%
Racine: 48.27%
Richland: 54.65%
Rock: 58.21%
Rusk: 44.51%
Sauk: 55.82%
Sawyer: 46.73%
Shawano: 41.43%
Sheboygan: 41.52%
St. Croix: 40.32%
Taylor: 36.67%
Trempealeau: 53.61%
Vernon: 53.99%
Vilas: 39.92%
Walworth: 40.22%
Washburn: 45.10%
Washington: 26.21%
Waukesha: 29.09%
Waupaca: 41.74%
Waushara: 41.32%
Winnebago: 48.38%
Wood: 45.01%
Remember, those are county-by-county baselines for Democrats to tie Republicans in statewide races, meaning that Democrats running statewide in Wisconsin would need to get a higher percentage of the vote in each county in order to be assured of victory.
If you intend on following Wisconsin election results on Election Night, you'll want to bookmark this diary on your browser.