Want a way to compare your political prognosticating prowess to the big shots?
I wanted a chance to test mine against them, as well as against others like the DKos community.
So I would like to run a Pick'em type tournament for the 2014 elections.
I have limited it to the Senate and Governor elections.
I am also basing the point system on the Daily Kos Election Race Ratings (as of 10/26)
This is not meant to be the post where I kick this off. First of all, I would like some feedback. And then probably sometime later this week, I will write another diary, where people can publish their official predictions.
The feedback I would like from other kossacks:
1. Does anybody else in the Dkos community do one of these?
2. Is anyone interested in participating?
3. Does this violate any of the posting guidelines/illegal?
Here is the point system I am kicking around. Also wouldn't mind feedback here, either.
Safe Seats:
Correctly picking an upset: 5 points
Incorrectly picking an upset: -5 points
Likely Seats:
Correctly picking the race winner: 1 point
Incorrectly picking the race winner: -1 point
Lean and Tossup Seats:
Correctly picking the race winner: 2 points
Senate:
Safe Seats:
Delaware (Safe D)
Hawaii (Safe D)
Illinois (Safe D)
Massachusetts (Safe D)
New Jersey (Safe D)
New Mexico (Safe D)
Rhode Island (Safe D)
Alabama (Safe R)
Idaho (Safe R)
Maine (Safe R)
Mississippi (Safe R)
Nebraska (Safe R)
Oklahoma-A (Safe R)
Oklahoma-B (Safe R)
South Carolina-A (Safe R)
South Carolina-B (Safe R)
Tennessee (Safe R)
Texas (Safe R)
Wyoming (SafeR)
Likely Seats:
Michigan (Likely D)
Minnesota (Likely D)
Oregon (Likely D)
Virginia (Likely D)
Montano (Likely R)
West Virginia (Likely R)
Lean and Tossup Seats:
Alaska (Tossup)
Arkansas (Tossup)
Colorado (Tossup)
Iowa (Tossup)
Kansas (Tossup)
Louisiana (Tossup)
North Carolina (Tossup)
New Hampshire (Tossup)
Georgia (Lean R)
Kentucky (Lean R)
South Dakota (Lean R)
Governors:
Safe Seats:
California (Safe D)
New York (Safe D)
Vermont (Safe D)
Alabama (Safe R)
Iowa (Safe R)
Nevada (Safe R)
Ohio (Safe R)
South Dakota (Safe R)
Tennessee (Safe R)
Wyoming (Safe R)
Likely Seats:
Minnesota (Likely D)
New Hampshire (Likely D)
Oregon (Likely D)
Pennsylvania (Likely D)
Rhode Island (Likely D)
Georgia (Likely R)
Idaho (Likely R)
Nebraska (Likely R)
New Mexico (Likely R)
Oklahoma (Likely R)
South Carolina (Likely R)
Texas (Likely R)
Lean and Tossup Seats:
Hawaii (Lean D)
Maryland (Lean D)
Arkansas (Lean R)
Arizona (Lean R)
Alaska (Tossup)
Colorado (Tossup)
Connecticut (Tossup)
Florida (Tossup)
Illinois (Tossup)
Kansas (Tossup)
Massachusetts (Tossup)
Maine (Tossup)
Michigan (Tossup)
Wisconsin (Tossup)
Unfortunately, I can't afford to offer much of a prize. Maybe a year's subscription to dailykos. But other than that, there's the bragging rights.
So, what do you think? Want to see who does best?
Tue Oct 28, 2014 at 7:11 AM PT: The official contest is now under way: Think You're the Best at Predicting the 2014 Election Outcomes? Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is