The Lake Trail in Palm Beach routinely floods during high tide. Boat docks are swamped, sidewalks flood and water tops sections of the sea wall threatening historic structures.
When we talk about climate change and sea level rise rarely is it with any sense of urgency. Sea level rise might be a problem in a hundred years, a problem for your grandchildren to manage. Sea level rise lacks the immediacy of a tornado or hurricane and the spectacular visuals of a volcanic eruption. There are no videos of a rising sea level sweeping away cars, trucks and houses. Sea level rise is slow and it all seems so comfortably out in the distant future but that future may not be as distant as we think, especially in South Florida where the ocean seems to be in hurry to get started on reclaiming the land.
Even along the coastal areas of Florida the economic machine is in full denial. Property values, especially along the coast, are up. Almost every week there’s a new artist conception of a new development along the waterfront in Miami. Banks are still handing out 30 year mortgages, insurance companies are still covering properties, new developments are going up faster than anytime in the area’s history, including the go-go days of the 70s and 80s when development was fueled by drug money.
It would be easy to suggest that South Florida is run by climate deniers but, at this point, it doesn’t matter if you believe global warming is man-made or not, it’s here with a vengeance regardless of the cause. The ocean is going to keep coming and South Florida is going to be powerless to stop it. In less than 100 years Miami is going to be underwater, but decades before that, possibly in our lifetimes, it’s going to be dead economically. That’s because the entire Miami metro area sits on top of a giant dome of porous limestone, full of channels and voids. Think of the soil under Miami like a giant hunk of Swiss Cheese. While seawalls may be able to stop storm surge, there’s no way to stop saltwater from intruding underground.
It would take a sea level rise of six feet to effectively flood the Miami area and large sections of the Florida coast, but it will only take a rise of 12 inches, which we could easily see in our lifetimes, to destroy Miami economically. In 12-16 inches of sea level rise toilets don’t flush, storm drains flow backwards and brackish water intrudes on Miami’s water supply. That will be the panic wake up call for insurance companies, commercial lenders and property values will collapse. People who live in Miami and coastal Florida already know there’s a problem.
Storm drains routinely flow water at high tide in many parts of Miami and coastal Florida.
There are parts of Miami and Palm Beach that flood during high tide as storm drains start running backwards. Flooding happens all over South Florida during the rainy season, with some store owners and residents now keeping boots and sandbags close at hand. The Lake Trail in Palm Beach, that runs along the Intracoastal side of the island, routinely floods at high tide and large sections are currently under repair as the regular flooding undermines the pavement. My family grew up walking, biking and rollerblading that trail and the flooding has started in just the last few years. Today at high tide water laps across the top of the sea wall in many places, submerges boat docks and threatens some of the oldest structures on the island. Sea level is not only rising,
it’s accelerating.
The inevitable disaster for South Florida is not a hundred years in the future, it’s 15 or 20, if that. There is no technologically feasible way to stop the water but that doesn’t mean Miami isn’t trying. Currently hundreds of millions in state and federal tax dollars are at work trying to stave off the inevitable. Massive projects are underway to fix the inundated storm drains and sewer system of Miami Beach and to keep the city supplied with fresh water. All those efforts are doomed to fail, the only question no one can really answer is when.
None of this even addresses what would happen to Miami in the event of a hurricane. Losses to storm damage could easily escalate into the hundreds of billions. It’s inevitable that Miami and the state of Florida would turn to taxpayers for relief. The question we should be thinking about now is should we sink more of our collective treasure into trying to salvage a city that can’t be saved? We did put the hundreds of billions into New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, but the geology of the two areas is vastly different. Even the addition of giant pumping systems simply wouldn’t be enough to keep the ocean away from Miami. Looking at satellite images you can see that, at high enough water levels, Miami gets flooded from the west, across the Everglades. Pumps aren’t going to stop the water.
Miami is going to die, probably in our lifetimes, but certainly within the lifetimes of your children. Your grandkids will be diving in the world’s most awesome underwater park. The same fate awaits Palm Beach but no one will shed a tear for that loss; the wealthy elite will land on their feet. But Miami is going to be an economic disruption that will ripple across the country. We’ve never lost a city of that size before and, make no mistake, the results are going to be cataclysmic.