Last night I stumbled across a fantastic interview of Sam Wang from the
Princeton Election Consortium on
Up With Steve Kornacki on October, 19. Some pearls of wisdom from Wang:
On election day, candidates with a polling lead of 3 percentage points or less, have a 1 in 3 chance of losing.
"Midterm polling is actually remarkably bad compared with presidential years, and its possible for all the polls to be off by up to 3 points in either direction."
The chart at the top of the diary is from today's blogpost at PEC. There are 7 senate and 11 governor's seats within three percentage points! Applying Wang's first pearl, that's 18 races where the candidate leading in the polls has a 1 in 3 chance of losing, or conversely the trailing candidate has a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
Now consider Wang's second pearl, that midterm polling is less accurate than presidential year polling. In 2010 (as you can see in the chart above) there were three senate races that were polling within a three point margin immediately prior to election day. The states, the opposing candidates, RealClearPolitcs polling average as of 11/2/2010, and the results are below.
Washington -- Patty Murray vs. Dino Rossi -- Murray up 0.3% -- Murray wins by 3.8%
Colorado -- Bennet vs. Buck -- Buck up 3% -- Bennet wins by 0.9%
Nevada -- Reid vs. Angle -- Angle up 2.7% -- Reid wins by 5.6%
The democratic candidates won all of the races that were within 3 percentage points. Bennet and Reid came from behind to do it. The polls did not predict the turnout in those two races, and it was a robust ground game in Colorado and Nevada against a red wave no less, that made a difference.
The take home message: We have a chance to win in each of these 7 senate and 11 governors races! And we can all do something simple, and virtually pain free to help!
More below the squiggle.
Call a friend, a relative, or a neighbor today, who may be at risk of not voting and ask, "How can I help you vote?"
In September Kos reported that Daily Kos had 7.3 million unique visitors, and headquarters expected even more unique visitors in the month of October. Of course not all of these visitors are committed democrats, but Kos also reported that the email action alert list had 1.6 million members. If just 10% of those 1.6 million email recipients went the extra mile to help bring one extra democratic voter to the polls, that's 160,000 more votes for dems!
Some Kossacks are already doing quite a bit to pitch in:
A synopsis of comments by trkingmomoe following VL Baker's diary, Charlie Crist being outspent 3-1, race tied, help needed.
I got 5 people to the polls to vote early. The votes went to Crist. If you live in Florida take a friend to vote. Many participated in Souls to the Polls today in the county I live in. There won't be early voting next Sunday in this county but others will have it. So voting was brisk today it was great to see that parking lot full when I drove by. In Manatee County. Early voting is closer then the new polling place in the suburbs. It is not that convenient with bus service there. I keep asking who needs a ride and that I will take them. A tea bagger is the new county elections supervisor.
From HarpboyAK in a diary I posted last week:
Give rides! Anyone who gets in my taxi to go vote gets a free ride. Anyone. Even a diehard Republican or Libertarian. But of course I only tell Democratic voters about my free rides to vote in advance.
If you have a car, offering a ride is a wonderful way to help. Offer subway or bus fare if you don't. Offer to go along with your friend to keep them company.
Call your niece who's a hardworking single mom and offer to babysit.
Call your college student and ask them if they have made a plan to vote.
Call your disabled neighbor and offer to drop their absentee ballot off at the post office. Make sure it has a stamp if needed!
Call your coworker and let them know you are available to come in early to cover, so they can go vote.
Call your friend and make a date to go vote, then take them out for coffee or lunch and catch up with each other.
Winning majorities are built one vote at a time! Every vote and every person counts!