Leading Off:
• VA-Sen: Republican Ed Gillespie's campaign against Democratic Sen. Mark Warner has not gone incredibly well. Gillespie consistently trails in the polls and doesn't have enough money left to run a statewide ad campaign. Gillespie's pretty desperate, so it's not surprise he's throwing a truly stupid Hail Mary in his new spot.
The narrator notes that Harry Reid is trying to get the Washington football team to change its name, and Warner won't say if he supports it. Gillespie then appears and declares, "I'll oppose the anti-Redskins bill." He then calls for focusing on creating jobs and safety "and let the Redskins handle what to call their team."
The ad doesn't exactly make much sense: Warner's not saying anything about this bill, so Virginia should elect someone who will focus on real issues and not football names? Whatever, it's not like Gillespie has any other options but to lose quietly.
Head below the fold for a roundup of ads from races around the country.
Senate:
• AK-Sen: The DSCC hits Republican Dan Sullivan again.
• AR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor's hasn't polled well in a long time, but the DSCC isn't giving up on him (or someone at the DSCC owes Pryor a very large bar bet). The ad, which is running for over $1 million, continues to go after Republican Tom Cotton on Medicare. The NRSC has their own spot, yet again arguing that Pryor has become a Washington hack.
• CO-Sen: The NRSC hits Democratic Sen. Mark Udall again.
• GA-Sen: The DSCC continues to go after Republican David Perdue on outsourcing, and EMILY's List does the same thing. Georgians Together also spends $150,000 for the Democrats.
The NRSC hits back, with a direct quote from Obama declaring that if Democrat "Michelle Nunn wins, that means that Democrats keep control of the Senate." Also for the GOP, Georgia One spends $215,000 linking Nunn to Obama. For once, it's Coke not the Kochs who are attacking Democrats: Georgia One is largely funded by the head of Coca-Cola Enterprises.
• IA-Sen: For Team Blue we have Americans for Responsible Solutions and the NEA. For Team Red we have the NRSC, with the American Heartland PAC spending $100,000.
• KS-Sen: Rand PAC, which you'll be shocked to know is Rand Paul's PAC, praises Republican Sen. Pat Roberts for opposing foreign aide "to countries that hate us." The narrator notes that Roberts stood with Paul, which I'm sure was thrown in there for reasons that don't involve hyping Rand Paul ahead of 2016.
Roberts also goes after independent Greg Orman's business background, accusing him of being corrupt and heartless. Now Or Never PAC also spends $150,000 for the GOP. On the other side, Kansans Support Problem Solvers spends $122,000 for Orman.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell continues his "I'm not the asshole you think I am" ad campaign. And to be fair his newest ad is actually pretty funny.
Also for the GOP, Kentucky Opportunity Coalition continues with their "Democrat Alison Grimes is the liar we think she is," ad campaign, while the NRA continues their "Let's cut and paste some candidate into our all-size-fits-all" ad campaign.
On the Democratic side, the DSCC returns to the airwaves after initially signaling that they had given up on this race. Their new spot features a school teacher going after McConnell's record on jobs.
• MI-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters spends $221,000 for Democrat Gary Peters. The Humane Society also goes up with a spot for Peters, promoting his work combatting animal cruelty.
• NC-Sen: Crossroads GPS goes after Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, tying her to You Know Who (no, not Lord Voldemort). The DSCC in turn hits Republican Thom Tillis on education.
• SD-Sen: The NRSC just announced that it is declaring victory and pulling out of the race, but they throw in one extra shot at Democrat Rick Weiland before they go. On the Democratic side, MoveOn praises Weiland.
Gubernatorial:
• AK-Gov: Most spending in The Last Frontier has been directed at the U.S. Senate race, even though Republican Gov. Sean Parnell faces a tough fight against independent Bill Walker. One outside group is finally coming to Parnell's rescue though. "Citizens Against Walker," is spending $150,000 attacking Walker on Obamacare- I know, surprise, surprise.
How much airtime the ad will actually get is unclear. The long and expensive Senate race has ensured that there isn't much ad time left to buy in Alaska, as Parnell himself is finding out the hard way. That isn't stopping the governor from running a cheap-looking ad against Walker.
• CT-Gov: Both national parties are airing another spot. The RGA accuses Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy of lying about the condition of the state economy and about raising taxes. The DGA goes after Republican Tom Foley, continuing to paint him as a selfish rich guy.
• FL-Gov: Quite a few Democrats are running ads featuring footage from their rally with Bill Clinton, but the Big Dog actually speaks directly to the audience in Charlie Crist's newest spot.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn accuses Republican Bruce Rauner of withholding a drug that could have saved infants lives so he could make money. Rauner appears with his wife, arguing he's not beholden to the special interests.
• KS-Gov: Kansas Values features former Republican state Senate President Dick Bond decrying Republican Gov. Sam Brownback, while praising Democrat Paul Davis.
• ME-Gov: You usually don't find much agreement between two rival political campaigns, but both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge two things about the Maine gubernatorial race: The contest is tight, and the supporters of left-leaning independent Eliot Cutler will decide if Republican Gov. Paul LePage gets a second term.
On Friday, the League of Conservation Voters released a PPP survey showing LePage tied with Democrat Mike Michaud, and found Cutler taking 17 percent. If Cutler were not in the race, Michaud would hold a 5-point lead. On Monday the Republican Governors Association unveiled a poll from Magellan Strategies showing a remarkably similar topline, with LePage and Michaud tied 43-43, and Cutler taking 13.
On Tuesday an independent poll from Pan Atlantic also found the two major party candidates deadlocked 40-40, with Cutler at 13. Not coincidently, Michaud has been making gains as Cutler has been declining: The group's last poll gave LePage a 39-34 lead, with Cutler taking 20. Other recent polls have been all over the map, showing everything from a 6-point lead for Michaud to a 10-point edge for LePage, but with both parties showing a tie it's hard to conclude that this contest isn't tight.
Both sides recognize that if Cutler's remaining supporters break for Michaud, it's all over for LePage. Michaud is running an ad featuring several former Cutler supporters saying that they'll be backing Michaud this year, arguing that Michaud can beat LePage. NextGen Climate's new spot also follows a very similar model. (For their part, the DGA's new ad just bashes LePage without mentioning Cutler). On the other side, the RGA is trying a similar tactic. Their ad attacks Michaud for trying to create a new tax, and notes that then-Gov. Angus King vetoed the bill. The narrator then mentions that King, now an independent senator, is backing Cutler. LePage is not mentioned at all in the spot: The ad is clearly aimed at Michaud supporters who may not be completely sold on their candidate, and whom the Republicans think they can pry toward Cutler.
Usually, independent candidates lose much of their support at the end of the race. However, there's no telling if that will happen this time. Maine is more open to voting for independents than almost any other state. Cutler also came very close to beating LePage in 2010, and he's much better known than most independents. Dreaminonempty also finds that this year, independent candidates are keeping more of their supporters than usual. Cutler himself stopped running ads and that gives Michaud the chance to appeal to his voters. This election may ultimately come down to whether Cutler can crater enough to get Michaud across the finish line, or if LePage and his allies can boost the independent enough to secure another Republican victory.
• WI-Gov: Republican Gov. Scott Walker rolls out Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch to defend his administration's record on women.
House:
• AZ-02: On the GOP side, we have the Congressional Leadership Fund once again invoking former Rep. Gabby Giffords to hit her successor Rep. Ron Barber. The spot begins with a woman declaring that Giffords "had guts enough to vote against Pelosi," while Barber didn't. Giffords is a Barber supporter and cut an ad supporting him, though you wouldn't know it from the GOP's campaign. The NRCC also ties Barber to Obama and Pelosi, while praising Republican Martha McSally.
• CA-07: The contest in this suburban Sacramento district has attracted plenty of outside spending from both sides, and the free-spending Crossroads GPS continues to hit Democratic Rep. Ami Bera on Obamacare and Social Security.
• CA-52: The DCCC continues to accuse Republican Carl DeMaio of being a tea partier who pretends to be a moderate. House Majority PAC also spends $321,000 hitting DeMaio on the same theme.
• FL-02: House Majority PAC spends $81,000 against Republican Rep. Steve Southerland.
• IA-02: In recent days both the DCCC and NRCC have begun spending in this district, where until very recently Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack was the clear favorite to win another term. House Majority PAC is also joining in, and spending $129,000 against Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. It's not a good sign at all that both partiers are converging on this 56-43 Obama seat late in the game.
• IA-03: House Majority PAC spends $154,000 against Republican David Young.
• IL-10: House Majority PAC spends a hefty $611,000 going after Republican Bob Dold on women's healthcare. And no, we didn't get a single "Bob Dold!" here.
• IL-12: The Congressional Leadership Fund offers up a bland ad against Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart.
• IL-13: Both the DCCC and House Majority PAC recently canceled their ad reservations here, so it is a good sign that HMP is coming back. The group spends $113,000 hitting Republican Rep. Rodney Davis on congressional perks.
• LA-05: Zach Dasher, one of several Republicans competing in the Nov. 4 jungle primary, turns to his famous family for help (here and here). Both 15-second spots stars Dasher's relative and Duck Dynasty star Phil Robertson. The first features Robertson declaring "bibles and guns brought us here," while the second ad has Robertson declaring that Dasher is a good man.
• MA-09: Republican John Chapman is a longshot against Democratic Rep. Bill Keating, and stories like this are the last thing he needs. Chapman's spot, which has since been pulled from the web, featured voters being unable to name Keating as their congressman to try and paint the Democrat as an absentee representative.
The problem for Chapman is that one of the people he asked is mentally handicapped. Journalist Charlie Mathewson is the man's stepfather and took Chapman to task for it at a debate on Monday. Chapman claimed he didn't know that Mathewson's stepson is handicapped, but Mathewson didn't buy it and accused the Republican of taking advantage of his disability. Not a type of story Chapman wants in the closing days of the race.
• ME-02: House Majority PAC spends $296,000 arguing that Republican Bruce Poliquin is a corrupt Wall Street insider. The NRCC recently cut its reservations supporting Poliquin, but the decision may have had more to do with Poliquin's wealth than the GOP's belief that the race was lost.
• MI-11: Democrat Bobby McKenzie continues to go after Republican Dave Trott's for getting rich off of foreclosures.
• MN-07: Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson defends his independence while the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund... doesn't.
• MN-08: The DCCC maintains that Republican Stewart Mill only got where he is by inheriting everything.
• NE-02: On the Democratic side, House Majority PAC spends $132,000 against Republican Rep. Lee Terry.
The NRCC hits back, and continuing to portray Democrat Brad Ashford as someone who doesn't care about public safety. Terry himself runs against Obama, briefly throwing in a reference to Ashford at the end. Terry describes Obama as a disaster but he sang a very different tune in 2008, when he actively and successfully sought Obama-Terry voters.
• NH-02: House Majority PAC spends $272,000 arguing that Republican Marilinda Garcia is putting Social Security at risk.
• NJ-03: The American Action Network goes after Democrat Aimee Belgard for voting to lay off police officers. They start the spot with a shot of ISIS, employing some old fashioned and unsubtle fear mongering to make their point.
• NV-04: Republican Cresent Hardy offers us a very boring ad. Thanks to horrible Democratic turnout, he may win anyway. Crossroads GPS also goes after Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford's record in state legislature.
• NY-11: Despite initial Democratic hopes that Republican Rep. Michael Grimm's April indictment would give them an automatic pickup, that hasn't happened. House Majority PAC is spending a hefty $1.7 million to try and put Grimm away once and for all. Their spot brings up Grimm's upcoming trial as well as his voting record. Republicans have barely spent anything in this Staten Island seat, which makes Grimm's resilience all the more concerning.
• NY-19: Republican Rep. Chris Gibson has posted clear leads against Democrat Sean Eldridge, but Gibson still is attacking his rival. Maybe he's just being careful, but it is interesting that the NRCC has also devoted resources to this district late in the game.
• NY-24: House Majority PAC spends $175,000 against Republican John Katko.
• WI-06: Democrat Mark Harris recently made some news with his very hard-hitting ad highlighting Republican Glenn Grothman's history of insane comments and legislation. Harris doesn't have much money and his Romney 53-46 seat isn't too friendly to Democrats, but Grothman apparently takes Harris seriously enough to attack him. The spot predictably frames the race as a choice between an Obama supporter and a conservative.
• WV-02: In a year where Democrats are on the defensive across West Virginia, the GOP has had a surprisingly tough time holding onto this open seat. Of course, the fact that Republican nominee Alex Mooney is a carpetbagger from Maryland may have something to do with it. The NRCC is coming to Mooney's defense, and goes after Democrat Nick Casey's lobbying career and of course links him to Obama.
• NRCC: GOP expenditures.