For just over the last week I've been following the Colorado Secretary of States reports on early voting. What has really struck me is how well the Republicans have been doing at getting their people to vote early. In fact, it's been so good, I've commented that the pace was impossible to keep up. For the past week, the Democrats have been slowly making progress at cutting into the Republican turnout advantage. But with today's report, we're seeing the Democrats really turn the corner.
Yesterday I wrote I diary about how impressed I am with the highly efficient GOTV operation the Dems have put together in Colorado. Well today is the day we're starting to see that operation pay off.
Here's the latest break down of the electorate from the Secretary of States office.
D R U
10/31/14 32.2 41.4 25.3
11/03/14 32.4 40.5 26.1
Something to keep in mind is that these numbers probably don't include Saturday's early vote, and some counties may not even have Fridays numbers compiled in time.
So the Republicans went from a 9.2% electorate makeup advantage over the Democrats, to a 8.1% advantage. Now that might not sound like much, but for a 2 day period, it's huge! It's an indication that the Republicans cannibalized their election day voters to boost their early vote totals.
Let's take a look at how the vote has been going in a few select counties. The first 2, Boulder and Denver are heavily Democratic counties, while the last 2, Douglas and El Paso are heavily Republican counties. These numbers show the Democrat and Republican advantage for each Secretary of State report since early voting started. The thing to look at is the trend.
Dem Advantage Repub Advantage
Boulder Denver Douglas El Paso
10/22/14 20.3 31.2 37.6 34.8
10/24/14 20.9 31.9 37.6 34.4
10/27/14 20.7 32.2 36.7 34.5
10/29/14 21.9 33.2 36.4 33.8
10/31/14 22.9 33.5 35.3 33.2
11/03/14 23.5 33.6 34.6 32.5
See how the Democrats have slowly gained on the Republicans throughout the period, and then in the last report, the Democratic GOTV machine kicks into high gear! Not only are we seeing more and more Democrats turning out, especially in Boulder county, we're seeing a rapid drop off in Republican voters in heavily Republican counties. And keep in mind this report probably doesn't include the vote totals from Saturday and maybe not even Friday for some counties. We new the Democrats were going to vote late, and it was clear from the beginning that Republicans had a great early turnout game going, but they were cannibalizing election day voters to take the early lead.
Now lets take a look at a couple of recent polls. These are not likely voter numbers, these are people who have actually voted.
Udall Gardner
Quinnipiac 42 47
SurveyUsa 45 48
If these numbers are correct, the Senator Udall has pretty good size lead with the Unaffiliateds. Remember, the Republicans had a 9.2% turnout advantage when these polls were taken, and in the last couple of days, the Democrats have made a big cut into that advantage.
And then there is this analysis from Michael P. McDonald at the University of Florida who's been doing a wonderful job of providing early vote numbers.
This election is going down to the wire. I'm not saying Udall will win; I'm saying this election is truly too-close-to-call despite poll averages showing a small Gardner lead.
In 2010, pre-election polls showed Bennet trailing. But, Democratic Senator Bennet won a tight race by +1.7 percentage points even though Republicans enjoyed a 39.8% to 33.0% or +6.8 point edge among all voters (not just early voters). If we add together 1.7 + 6.8 = 8.5, this might reasonably be an estimate of the registration margin that would equal a tied race.
In 2012, Obama won Colorado by +5.4 points even though Republicans enjoyed a +1.8 point lead among early voters. If we add together 5.4 + 1.8 = 7.2, which serves as another estimate that excludes Election Day voters in 2012. Although I don't know the composition of Election Day voters, surveys indicated that they supported Romney more than early voters, so it is reasonable to assume 7.2 is an underestimate on the typical Republican registration advantage needed for Republican candidates to win.
From just Friday to Saturday, Democrats trimmed the Republican lead in the 2014 early vote from +8.8 to +8.0. With three days of voting left, if this trend holds the Republican advantage will stand at +5.6 points. Garnder would have to do much better than Romney among unaffiliated registered voters to win.
OK, we're not there yet! We've got today and tomorrow to pull Mark Udall, and possibly the U.S. senate across the finish line. We've got to get everyone on the Bannock Street Project target list to go vote! If you can spare a couple of hours calling and/or canvassing or helping out in any way you can, go down to your local Dem office and lend a hand.
UPDATE: As I dig through these numbers, I'll try and update if I find something interesting.
Jefferson county is considered the bellwether county for Colorado. Now keep in mind Dr. McDonald believes A Republican 7.2% turnout advantage means the race is probably tied. So here's the Republican lead in bellwether Jefferson county, today's report and the previous report.
10/31/14 7.3%
11/03/14 6.9%
And with your help this number gets smaller through election eve.
GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!