In a new piece Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dan highlights Republicans' diminishing support as a result of their radical policies, and disruptive tactics based on new NBC / Wall Street Journal poll results
Republicans Have Midterm Advantage, But It Still Doesn't Look Like a Wave
BY CHUCK TODD, MARK MURRAY AND CARRIE DANN
This doesn’t look like a Republican wave election. Nationally, Republicans (at 46%) and Democrats (at 45%) are deadlocked among likely voters in our congressional preference score, and a similar split exists among likely voters living in the Top 10 Senate battlegrounds, GOP 47%, Dem 46%. Consider the gains Democrats have made here among all likely voters:
Aug. 2014: GOP 49%, Dem 41% (GOP +8)
Sept. 2014: GOP 49%, Dem 44% (GOP +5)
Mid-Oct. 2014: GOP 46%, Dem 44% (GOP +2)
Now: GOP 46%, Dem 45% (GOP +1)
Look at how high voter interest among Democrats has gone up and how it’s gone down for the GOP:
Mid-Oct. GOP 59%, Dem 47% (GOP +12)
Now: GOP 58%, Dem 57% (GOP +1)
And then consider the GOP’s popularity in past midterm cycles:
Oct. 1994: 41% positive, 30% negative (+11)
Oct. 2010: 34% positive, 41% negative (-7)
Now: 29% positive, 47% negative (-18)… By comparison, Dems are 36%-43% (-7)
Once again, this isn’t what a wave election looks like for an opposition party.
Republicans have been taking advantage of President Obama's lukewarm approval to make this election about the President, and not their opponents in state races.
If Democrats go down to defeat Tuesday night, one reason will be their inability to get credit for an improving economy. In Oct. 2010:
The unemployment rate was 9.5%;
The Dow was above 11,000;
Obama’s economic handling was 43% in the NBC/WSJ poll;
And Republicans held a one-point advantage on which party does a better job on the economy.
Flash forward four years later to now:
The unemployment rate is 5.9%;
The Dow is above 17,000;
Obama’s economic handling remains the same (at 43%);
And the GOP holds a nine-point advantage on the economy.
Republicans may win some crucial races tomorrow, but not on the popularity of Republican policy prescriptions or support for their disruptive tactics and obstruction in the Congress.