Polls close in 30 minutes. The big question of the night: will the unprecedented mid-term Democratic GOTV offset the GOP's inherent advantages this cycle? Republicans are running against an unpopular sixth-year president, facing weak midterm Democratic base electoral performance, and running in mostly solid Republican states. So how is this evening not already preordained? Apparently, the Republican brand is so tainted that Democrats have actually made a contest out of what should be a blowout.
So what to expect? The data says Republicans will take the Senate (winning Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana (eventually), Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia), while Democrats will gain a net two governorships (gaining Alaska, Florida, Kansas, and Pennsylvania while losing Arkansas and Massachusetts). As for the House, expectations are up to 12 Democratic losses. What will the final score actually look like? We'll get a good idea over the next four to five hours.
2:39 PM PT: Dixville Notch, NH, does that thing where they vote the night before, and Scott Brown won it 3-2. That is three votes, to two votes. In 2012, Obama and Romney split 5-5-. So think about it -- your entire claim to fame is being the place that reports votes early, and you could only get half the turnout of 2012?
2:43 PM PT: WT—
2:45 PM PT: Take with a thousand grains of salt:
.@PostPolls team: Early exits are "a hair less white than in 2010, a little bit more Democratic, and a little less conservative."
— @AaronBlakeWP
2:46 PM PT: About that grain of salt:
I'm seeing tweets about the 3pm wave of exit polls in at least one race. Evening exit polls are often wrong, let alone mid-afternoon ones...
— @Taniel
2:57 PM PT:
Latest Colorado number per unnamed source: 1.725 million ballots, 39.3%R, 32%D, 27.56%U. Getting tougher to see a path for Udall.
— @JoshuaGreen
3:16 PM PT (Barbara Morrill): New thread here.