Now that was a difficult night. There were a few bright spots (CO and CT Democratic Govs seem to be hanging on, WA overwhelmingly passed a background checks initiative, minimum wage hikes passed in AK, AR, IL, NE and SD) to an overwhelmingly bad night for Democrats.
It's hard to pick the low points because there were so many of them. MD Gov going to Republican Larry Hogan 54-45? NC Senate to Thom Tillis 49-47? Mark Warner barely winning in VA Senate (eh, he won so that can't be the worst)? Perhaps re-elections of Scott Walker and Rick Scott?
There's a case where the issue is the economy, stupid, and in a surprising way: income inequality. NY Times:
The issue that the White House might have expected to boost Democratic candidates — the economy, which by many measures is in far better condition than it was even two years ago — may have in fact proved to be a negative for the president and his party. In preliminary exit polls of voters conducted by Edison Research, a large majority of voters described the national economy in negative terms and most said the United States economic system favored the wealthy.
Democrats weren't just punished for it happening on their watch (the WH and Senate), they were punished for looking like they wanted nothing to do with addressing it. Call it "the revenge of Occupy."
More politics and policy below the fold.
The problem isn't the stock market, it's stagnant wages, and with too many people feeling left behind. People aren't voting for Republicans so much as they're voting for change. The odd thing is, they're not thinking they'll see much for their efforts.
What does the public want? NY Times:
Two years after handing Democrats broad victories, voters again seemed to be reaching for a way to end Washington inertia. Yet the results on Tuesday may serve only to reinforce it. Voters appeared unsure of just what they wanted, according to surveys. Among those who voted for a Democrat, only one out of eight expressed an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party. Republican voters were more conflicted; among those who voted Republican, one of four viewed the party unfavorably.
Mr. Obama is left with the prospect of finding a new path to work with Republicans, something for which he has shown little inclination, and Republicans must find a way to demonstrate they are more than the party of “no.”
Some
exit poll findings of interest (
ABC):
VOTERS EXPRESS EXTENSIVE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DISCONTENT
• Voters by 65-31 percent say the country is headed seriously off on the wrong track rather than in the right direction. “Wrong track” numbers are 12 points more negative than two years ago, and are their second highest in available exit poll data back to 1990, trailing only the discontent of the 2008 election. “Wrong track” sentiment in past midterm elections has related strongly to losses by the incumbent president’s party.
• More voters disapprove than approve of Barack Obama’s job performance as president, 54-44 percent. His approval rating is down by 10 points vs. 2012, looking much like it did in his first midterm election in 2010, when his party lost 63 House seats. Disapproval of the president has related closely to losses by his party in past midterms.
• Just two in 10 voters trust the government in Washington to do what’s right all or most of the time.
and
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE? THE ECONOMY
• 45 percent say the economy is the most important issue in their vote (out of four choices). That’s down from 2012 when 59 percent chose it and 2010, and 2008, when 63 percent said it was their top issue – but still a big number.
• Half of voters expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse, by far the most to say so in exit polls asking the question back to 1996.
• Seven in 10 voters say the nation’s economy is in bad shape, fewer than in 2012, 2010 and 2008 -– but still seven in 10.
• Voters by 78-21 percent are worried about the economy’s direction in the year ahead.
• 31 percent say the economy’s getting worse, similar to the number who said so in 2012, vs. 35 percent who say it’s getting better. Thirty-three percent say it’s staying about the same, which for most, isn’t a good thing.
• 28 percent say their own financial situation has improved from two years ago; 25 percent say it’s worse, while nearly half say it’s about the same. Again, that’s better than 2012, 2010 and 2008, but still far from good.
Wherever the Republicans were able to field a credible candidate they won. Credit them with stifling their nutcases (see
Republicans’ First Step Was to Handle Extremists in Party).
In interviews, more than two dozen lawmakers and strategists described the meticulous efforts.
Little was left to chance: Republican operatives sent fake campaign trackers — interns and staff members brandishing video cameras to record every utterance and move — to trail their own candidates. In media training sessions, candidates were forced to sit through a reel of the most self-destructive moments of 2012, when Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock’s comments on rape and pregnancy helped sink the party.
And even when they didn't, they still won (see Maine, where LePage is still Governor).
Moreover, this isn't s simple case of "fought on red state terrain". See D losses in MD, CO, IA. This is a case of having put together no economic message to run on in the face of an angry electorate that wants economic change and doesn't want to be left behind.
Oh, and by the way, the election was not about Ebola, Obamacare (48% say went too far, 47% say ok as is or not far enough) or ISIS (58% approve of action taken). Make note of that.
A little local politics: The events of 12/14 in Newtown CT changed politics here a bit, but while the D Governor Dan Malloy looks like he'll eke out a win (Malloy leads Tom Foley 50.7%-48.3% with 90% in), Newtown went for Foley 51-48. However, CT-05 went for incumbent Elizabeth Esty (D) and she won Newtown for the first time by ~200 votes, having lost it by 1500 last time out. Both Malloy and Esty were gun safety legislation advocates. It didn't hurt them, but it didn't hurt opponents, either. In that regard, notable is John Hickenlooper (D) hanging on by thread as of this am in CO (48-47%).
In the end, unhappy voters want change. What they get remains to be seen.