Democrats looking for a reason why they lost the Senate last week connected the dots from North Carolina, through Texas, to Colorado and decided that it was Latino
revenge for Obama's delay of the Executive Order he promised on immigration reform.
Latino Decisions released a detailed thorough set of data to measure the growing influence of Latino voters. Their analysis suggests that Udall didn't measure up to the benchmark set by Obama with 87% of the Latino vote in 2012. But elsewhere, they say that Obama had 71% of the Latino vote in 2012, which is exactly what they reported for Udall in 2014.
I'd start my analysis of Latino influence with something simple.
When the 114th Session of Congress is sworn in, it will have more Latino representatives than any other session in history.
Did Obama over-promise and under-deliver?
On June 30, he said he'd do what Congress didn't for immigration reform, once his team sorted out the legalities.
Would he go farther than the modest, limited reforms that the Republicans blocked in Congress? Would he address the issue of deportation more comprehensively than his 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Executive Order?
Since taking office, the President became known as 'The-Deporter-in-Chief' and during the 2012 election campaign some liberals cited the record number of deportations under his watch when rightwingers said he was too lenient.
Face palm.
How do we stop the unjust misery innocent people suffer when their families are broken apart by deportation? And why aren't Democrats holding their opposition responsible instead of blaming themselves for the Republicans' refusal to budge?
Latino influence is clearest in the 71 Congressional Districts where Latinos are more than 20% of the eligible voters. 23 Congressional districts are majority Latino.
In 2012, the voters in those districts elected 52 Democrats and 19 Republicans to represent them in the House. This year, with one race still undecided, 50 Democrats and 20 Republicans were elected. If Jim Costa loses to his Republican challenger, the Democrats' net loss of 2 seats out of the 71 matches the results for all 435 House seats. By this measure, there's no confirmation of lost enthusiasm among Latino voters to explain the nationwide election results. The degree of lost enthusiasm was certainly no more than the rest of the population.
What explains the lost seats?
Before the election, Mother Jones pointed out the likelihood that Texas' 23rd District would be lost as a result of the Texas voter ID law.
How satisfying it must be for Karl Rove to see Democrats humiliate themselves by blaming each other for what Republicans do.
Latinos are 61.1% of the district's eligible voters. Pete Gallego, the outgoing rep held the seat for one term after it flipped back and forth between the Democrats and Republicans several times in the last decade. The side of the district that faces away from the Rio Grande Valley is a hotspot for the oil and gas boom that started with widespread fracking. There are jobs that pay good money and also an increasing gap, locally, between haves and have-nots.
Henry Cuellar, George Bush's favorite Democrat, represents the 28th District, just east of the 23rd. It stretches from Laredo and the Rio Grande Valley to the suburbs south of San Antonio. Cuellar championed the Fastrack to Deportation Bill in the House and he was the lone Democrat who voted in favor of it. Rep Filemon Vela, (D - TX/34) described the bill this way:
"H.R. 5230 strips due process rights from immigrant children to expedite their deportations while including $70 million to fund deployment of the National Guard to the Southern Border." |
Cuellar's district is two-thirds Latino and it crosses the booming Eagle Ford oil patch, where more crude is produced with fracking than anywhere else in the US. Cuellar is a
loud and abrasive critic of President Obama. He has to be seen in action to be appreciated.
Here he is with Joaquin Castro in a televised debate on immigration and deportation lying through his teeth. His bill would make it practically impossible to reunite separated families. Last week, he was reelected to a 7th term with 82% of the vote.
A news report about protesters at Cuellar's office starts at 57 seconds into the video.
The Democrats also lost a district at the southern tip of Florida. Rep. Joe Garcia was known as the only Democrat in the Cuban-American caucus. His tenure was plagued by tales of scandal. Republican Carlos Curbelo took Florida's 26th District with 51.5% of the vote.
In California, the 31st District flipped from the Republican column to the Democrats. The incumbent, Gary Miller, didn't run, and Pete Aguilar, the mayor of Redlands, won the election. In this conservative area along the I-210 corridor, including parts of San Bernardino, why did the results run counter to the nationwide trend? Perhaps it had something to do with events in the town of Murietta just outside the district, to the south. That's where a mob of angry rightwingers swarmed over a highway to block the passage of a bus full of Honduran kids they heard was coming through.
Head west from the 31st District and cross into the 35th. Democrat Norma Torres won there and she will become the first immigrant from Guatemala to serve in the US Congress. She won the seat with 63% of the vote which is quite a bit better than the retiring incumbent, Gloria Negrete McLeod, did in 2012.
In Arizona where immigration and border issues are featured in every election, this year's results in the five districts that elected Democrats in 2012 were practically identical in 2014. Arizona benefits from the presence of solid Progressives like Raul Grijalva and Ed Pastor. We're expecting Ruben Gallego to do just as well as Pastor in Arizona's 7th where he won with 74% of the vote.
The complete list of congressional districts where Latinos make up more than 20% of eligible voters is below. No doubt there will be tough times ahead. Same as it ever was. The only people who lose are those who give up.
District Name |
Latino Share of Voters
|
Outgoing Rep |
Incoming Rep |
Outgoing Party |
Incoming Party |
2012 Winners Vote Total
|
2014 Winners Vote Tota
|
AZ 3rd District |
52.5%
|
Raul Grijalva |
Raul Grijalva |
Democratic |
Democratic |
58.4%
|
55.6%
|
AZ 7th District |
44.5%
|
Ed Pastor |
Ruben Gallego |
Democratic |
Democratic |
81.7%
|
74.9%
|
CA 8th District |
25.5%
|
Paul Cook |
Paul Cook |
Republican |
Republican |
57.4%
|
67.9%
|
CA 9th District |
27.3%
|
Jerry McNerney |
Jerry McNerney |
Democratic |
Democratic |
55.6%
|
52.4%
|
CA 10th District |
29.2%
|
Jeff Denham |
Jeff Denham |
Republican |
Republican |
52.7%
|
56.4%
|
CA 16th District |
45.0%
|
Jim Costa |
undecided |
Democratic |
Recount |
57.4%
|
50.4%
|
CA 19th District |
30.8%
|
Zoe Lofgren |
Zoe Lofgren |
Democratic |
Democratic |
73.2%
|
67.3%
|
CA 20th District |
32.4%
|
Sam Farr |
Sam Farr |
Democratic |
Democratic |
74.1%
|
74.3%
|
CA 21st District |
55.4%
|
David Valadao |
David Valadao |
Republican |
Republican |
57.8%
|
59.3%
|
CA 22nd District |
31.9%
|
Devin Nunes |
Devin Nunes |
Republican |
Republican |
61.9%
|
72.3%
|
CA 23rd District |
28.0%
|
Kevin McCarthy |
Kevin McCarthy |
Republican |
Republican |
73.2%
|
75.3%
|
CA 24th District |
21.9%
|
Lois Capps |
Lois Capps |
Democratic |
Democratic |
55.1%
|
51.5%
|
CA 25th District |
27.5%
|
Buck McKeon |
Steve Knight |
Republican |
Republican |
54.8%
|
53.4%
|
CA 26th District |
30.9%
|
Julia Brownley |
Julia Brownley |
Democratic |
Democratic |
52.7%
|
50.4%
|
CA 27th District |
24.2%
|
Judy Chu |
Judy Chu |
Democratic |
Democratic |
64.0%
|
58.4%
|
CA 28th District |
21.0%
|
Adam Schiff |
Adam Schiff |
Democratic |
Democratic |
76.5%
|
76.0%
|
CA 29th District |
52.5%
|
Tony Cardenas |
Tony Cardenas |
Democratic |
Democratic |
74.1%
|
74.3%
|
CA 30th District |
20.2%
|
Brad Sherman |
Brad Sherman |
Democratic |
Democratic |
60.3%
|
64.9%
|
CA 31st District |
42.1%
|
Gary Miller |
Pete Aguilar |
Republican |
Democratic |
55.2%
|
51.4%
|
CA 32nd District |
53.5%
|
Grace Napolitano |
Grace Napolitano |
Democratic |
Democratic |
65.7%
|
59.2%
|
CA 34th District |
53.0%
|
Xavier Becerra |
Xavier Becerra |
Democratic |
Democratic |
85.6%
|
73.3%
|
CA 35th District |
58.6%
|
Gloria Negrete McLeod |
Norma Torres |
Democratic |
Democratic |
55.9%
|
63.2%
|
CA 36th District |
30.6%
|
Raul Ruiz |
Raul Ruiz |
Democratic |
Democratic |
52.9%
|
53.6%
|
CA 37th District |
23.1%
|
Karen Bass |
Karen Bass |
Democratic |
Democratic |
86.4%
|
83.8%
|
CA 38th District |
54.0%
|
Linda Sanchez |
Linda Sanchez |
Democratic |
Democratic |
67.5%
|
58.6%
|
CA 39th District |
25.6%
|
Ed Royce |
Ed Royce |
Republican |
Republican |
57.8%
|
68.9%
|
CA 40th District |
77.6%
|
Lucille Roybal-Allard |
Lucille Roybal-Allard |
Democratic |
Democratic |
58.9%
|
61.5%
|
CA 41st District |
44.3%
|
Mark Takano |
Mark Takano |
Democratic |
Democratic |
59.0%
|
55.9%
|
CA 42nd District |
29.2%
|
Ken Calvert |
Ken Calvert |
Republican |
Republican |
60.6%
|
65.8%
|
CA 43rd District |
33.1%
|
Maxine Waters |
Maxine Waters |
Democratic |
Democratic |
71.2%
|
70.2%
|
CA 44th District |
56.8%
|
Janice Hahn |
Janice Hahn |
Democratic |
Democratic |
60.2%
|
87.0%
|
CA 46th District |
45.9%
|
Loretta Sanchez |
Loretta Sanchez |
Democratic |
Democratic |
63.9%
|
57.9%
|
CA 47th District |
22.1%
|
Alan Lowenthal |
Alan Lowenthal |
Democratic |
Democratic |
56.6%
|
55.0%
|
CA 51st District |
57.9%
|
Juan Vargas |
Juan Vargas |
Democratic |
Democratic |
71.5%
|
67.3%
|
CA 53rd District |
26.5%
|
Susan Davis |
Susan Davis |
Democratic |
Democratic |
61.4%
|
58.3%
|
FL 9th District |
41.1%
|
Alan Grayson |
Alan Grayson |
Democratic |
Democratic |
62.5%
|
54.0%
|
FL 14th District |
21.9%
|
Kathy Castor |
Kathy Castor |
Democratic |
Democratic |
70.2%
|
100.0%
|
FL 23rd District |
32.1%
|
Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
Democratic |
Democratic |
63.2%
|
62.6%
|
FL 24th District |
27.0%
|
Frederica Wilson |
Frederica Wilson |
Democratic |
Democratic |
100.0%
|
86.2%
|
FL 25th District |
62.7%
|
Mario Diaz-Balart |
Mario Diaz-Balart |
Republican |
Republican |
75.6%
|
100.0%
|
FL 26th District |
62.3%
|
Joe Garcia |
Carlos Curbelo |
Democratic |
Republican |
53.6%
|
51.5%
|
FL 27th District |
65.0%
|
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
Republican |
Republican |
60.2%
|
100.0%
|
IL 4th District |
54.6%
|
Luis Gutierrez |
Luis Gutierrez |
Democratic |
Democratic |
83.0%
|
77.9%
|
NV 1st District |
25.7%
|
Dina Titus |
Dina Titus |
Democratic |
Democratic |
63.6%
|
56.8%
|
NJ 8th District |
45.5%
|
Albio Sires |
Albio Sires |
Democratic |
Democratic |
78.0%
|
77.3%
|
NJ 9th District |
26.5%
|
Bill Pascrell Jr. |
Bill Pascrell Jr. |
Democratic |
Democratic |
74.0%
|
68.5%
|
NM 1st District |
41.4%
|
Michelle Lujan Grisham |
Michelle Lujan Grisham |
Democratic |
Democratic |
59.1%
|
58.5%
|
NM 2nd District |
43.6%
|
Steve Pearce |
Steve Pearce |
Republican |
Republican |
55.1%
|
64.5%
|
NM 3rd District |
35.1%
|
Ben R. Lujan |
Ben R. Lujan |
Democratic |
Democratic |
63.1%
|
61.2%
|
NY7th District |
38.8%
|
Nydia M. Velazquez |
Nydia M. Velazquez |
Democratic |
Democratic |
88.6%
|
89.0%
|
NY13th District |
47.8%
|
Charles B. Rangel |
Charles B. Rangel |
Democratic |
Democratic |
88.5%
|
87.4%
|
NY14th District |
38.6%
|
Joseph Crowley |
Joseph Crowley |
Democratic |
Democratic |
80.0%
|
88.2%
|
NY15th District |
61.7%
|
José E. Serrano |
José E. Serrano |
Democratic |
Democratic |
95.6%
|
97.2%
|
TX 2nd District |
20.4%
|
Ted Poe |
Ted Poe |
Republican |
Republican |
64.8%
|
68.0%
|
TX 9th District |
23.4%
|
Al Green |
Al Green |
Democratic |
Democratic |
78.5%
|
90.8%
|
TX 11th District |
25.6%
|
K. Michael Conaway |
K. Michael Conaway |
Republican |
Republican |
78.6%
|
90.3%
|
TX 15th District |
71.4%
|
Rubén Hinojosa |
Rubén Hinojosa |
Democratic |
Democratic |
60.9%
|
54.2%
|
TX 16th District |
73.5%
|
Beto O'Rourke |
Beto O'Rourke |
Democratic |
Democratic |
65.4%
|
67.5%
|
TX 18th District |
22.2%
|
Sheila Jackson Lee |
Sheila Jackson Lee |
Democratic |
Democratic |
75.0%
|
71.8%
|
TX 19th District |
27.9%
|
Randy Neugebauer |
Randy Neugebauer |
Republican |
Republican |
85.0%
|
77.2%
|
TX 20th District |
64.1%
|
Joaquin Castro |
Joaquin Castro |
Democratic |
Democratic |
63.9%
|
75.7%
|
TX 21st District |
22.1%
|
Lamar Smith |
Lamar Smith |
Republican |
Republican |
60.5%
|
71.8%
|
TX 22nd District |
20.1%
|
Pete Olson |
Pete Olson |
Republican |
Republican |
64.0%
|
66.6%
|
TX 23rd District |
61.1%
|
Pete Gallego |
Will Hurd |
Democratic |
Republican |
50.3%
|
49.8%
|
TX 27th District |
43.9%
|
Blake Farenthold |
Blake Farenthold |
Republican |
Republican |
56.8%
|
63.6%
|
TX 28th District |
66.6%
|
Henry Cuellar |
Henry Cuellar |
Democratic |
Democratic |
67.9%
|
82.1%
|
TX 29th District |
60.9%
|
Gene Green |
Gene Green |
Democratic |
Democratic |
90.0%
|
89.5%
|
TX 33rd District |
43.3%
|
Marc Veasey |
Marc Veasey |
Democratic |
Democratic |
72.5%
|
86.5%
|
TX 34th District |
76.6%
|
Filemon Vela |
Filemon Vela |
Democratic |
Democratic |
61.9%
|
59.6%
|
TX 35th District |
52.7%
|
Lloyd Doggett |
Lloyd Doggett |
Democratic |
Democratic |
63.9%
|
62.5%
|
WA 4th District |
20.0%
|
Doc Hastings |
Dan Newhouse |
Republican |
Republican |
66.2%
|
51.1%
|