Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is down but not out
Several races remain uncalled as of Tuesday morning: Here is a roundup of what we know for each race. You can check who has won each key contest at our
race tracker here, and you can also keep an eye on our continuously updated
list of uncalled races.
• CA-07: On Monday, Republican Doug Ose's lead over Democratic Rep. Ami Bera fell from 2,183 votes to 530. There are about 30,000 ballots left in Sacramento County, and we estimate that about 18,300 of them are in the district. Bera needs to win them by about 3 points, which looks quite possible; he won the ballots counted on Monday by 6. More ballots are scheduled to be counted on Wednesday at 7:00 PM Eastern.
Head below the fold for a look at where other uncalled contests stand.
• AK-Sen, Gov: There has been no change in the vote count since election night: Republican Dan Sullivan still holds an 8,149 vote lead over Democratic incumbent Mark Begich, and independent Bill Walker still leads Republican Gov. Sean Parnell by 3,165 votes. The good news is that on Tuesday, at least some of the estimated 50,000 remaining ballots will be counted. To pull ahead, Begich would need to win them by a 56-40 margin, and Parnell would need to take them 51-45. We'll know soon enough where things stand in both contests.
• VT-Gov: Nothing is expected to change here until January. Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin won only a plurality over Republican Scott Milne, and the state legislature will need to choose the new governor. There's no real doubt that the Democratic legislature will pick Shumlin though. For a look at how Milne almost upset the seemingly safe governor last week, check out the Burlington Free Press account.
• AZ-02: Republican Martha McSally currently holds a 179-vote edge over Democratic Rep. Ron Barber. While this is her smallest lead so far, Barber's running out of time. There are about 4,000 provisional ballots left in Pima County: We estimate that 2,800 of them are in the 2nd District. For Barber to win, he'll need to carry this batch by a little more than 6 points. This is possible, but Barber has absolutely no room for error. Pima County is hoping to finish counting on Tuesday.
• CA-16: It looks like we'll need to wait a little longer for our answers here. Republican Johnny Tacherra continues to hold a 741-vote lead over Democratic Rep. Jim Costa, but Costa can win as long as Fresno County has enough votes left.
Tacherra-friendly Madera and Merced counties have 722 and 1,505 ballots left to count in the district, but Fresno is the big question mark. There are 20,400 ballots left in the entire county: We estimate about 22 percent of them are located in the 16th District. If the candidates win the remaining ballots by the same margins as they won each county, Costa should win by about 100 votes. Fresno is scheduled to update on Wednesday.
• CA-26: Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley holds a 1,030 vote lead over Republican Jeff Gorell, with about 40,000 ballots left to count. Late ballots in California almost always break Democratic so she should keep her lead, but it's not clear when they'll be counted.
• NY-25: Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter holds a 582 vote lead over Republican Mark Assini. Slaughter has declared victory but Assini is waiting for the remaining ballots to be counted. Updates are expected on Wednesday and Monday. There are reportedly 1,300 absentees left and 2,000 affidavit ballots: About two-thirds to three-quarters of affidavit ballots are usually counted. If there are 3,000 ballots left (Assini's best-case scenario), he'll need to win them by a little more than 19 points, which is a very tall order.