And you are too, if you buy that Brooklyn Bridge. Sad thing is, so many people around here want so desperately to believe it. At least based on the poll and comments, lots of people are delighted to hear that the Democratic candidate is a shoo-in in 2015. Think again.
Blue Wall, Schmoo Wall. A close look at recent presidential races, statewide races, and congressional delegations suggests that 2016 will be VERY competitive. Not to mention that no country has had a more regular switch in party control of leadership since World War II than the United States. With the single exception of 1980, Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the White House every 8 years. Like clockwork.
Take a look at a different map - -
Yeah, anybody can go to 270towin.com and click on the states. But what is their basis for those clicks?
I have created a rubric using the past four presidential elections for each state - weighing 2012 at 4 points, 2008 at 3 points, 2004 at 2 points, and 2000 at 1 point. Past voting is the best predictor of future voting - with the recent past more important than more distant elections.
If you notice, the two pink states - Indiana and North Carolina - are the states that Obama carried in 2008 but lost in 2012. We'll talk about a Democrat's chances in both later - but they are slim to none. The maximum electoral votes that a Democrat is likely to receive in 2016 is 332 - the same states and total that Obama won in 2012. That's the maximum.
No Democrat is going to win Georgia, Missouri, Arizona, or West Virginia. The four most critical states for Democrats to hold are Florida, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. The Democratic margins in the 2012 election for each were 1%, 6%, 7%, and 3%.
Although past presidential elections represent more than half of the rubric, there should also be consideration given to statewide races, congressional delegations, and the legislative control from each state. Governor's races show not only the willingness of the state electorate to vote for one party or the other, but a state's governor has a significant influence on the overall political climate of his or her state.
Whether Nikki Haley is governor of South Carolina or Jerry Brown is governor of California will make little difference in the outcome of the 2016 election, but Republican governors in swing states may make a difference. The four most critical states , FL, IA, NV, and OH, all have Republican governors. Democratic governors in Colorado and Virginia may help keeps those states in the Dem column.
A state's senators are the next most important indicator of the electorate. Given the six-year senate term, each senate seat has alternating presidential year and midterm elections. The 2014 election was a disaster for Democrats not only because they lost the Senate, but also because they set a precedent of losing so many statewide elections.
In the four critical states, Iowa now has two Republican senators while the other three have one senator from each party. Udall's loss splits Colorado's Senate representation - Virginia still has two Dem senators, but just barely.
What about House delegations? Yes, House representation is terribly gerrymandered - due in large part to Republican control of state legislatures which will be discussed later. Fair or not, most House seats have something approaching life tenure. And although these elections are not statewide, the composite gives another measure of the state electorate. And we all know what would happen if the House decided a tied Electoral College.
Not surprisingly, the Republicans control the House delegations in the four critical states. They also control the Virginia delegation. Colorado's delegation is roughly equal. Two other large states that have traditionally voted Democratic in presidential races have majority Republican House delegations - Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Finally, there is the issue of state legislatures. When one looks at the party breakdown of state legislatures it is shocking. Perhaps I should have started with this point. There are a few state legislatures that are absolutely dominated by Democrats. Hawaii and Massachusetts come to mind. In Massachusetts the partisan split is 125 (D) to 34 (R) in the House and 34 (D) to 6 (R) in the Senate. Which is not surprising. Similarly, Republicans absolutely dominate the state legislatures in Wyoming and Kansas. In Kansas the split is 27 (D) to 98 (R) in the House and 8 (D) to 32 (R) in the Senate. Again, not surprising.
But the real shocker is the Republican domination of a number of Midwestern legislatures. Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio all have veto-proof Republican majorities. Michigan's is almost veto-proof and Wisconsin has strong Republican majorities, despite Wisconsin's Democratic presidential voting record. A generation ago, Missouri used to be considered a bellweather state. Now the Republicans have nearly a 3-to-1 command of both houses and can easily override any bill that Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon vetoes.
State legislative races elicit a low level of interest. Some of the same issues that impact lower Democratic voter turnout in midterm elections also impact state legislative elections. But they will have huge repercussions on the presidential race in 2016. Voter ID laws, massive voter purges, voting hours, polling locations will all be impacted by these one-party states.
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So let's look at specific states.
1) Not a Chance - States that Chris Ladd has in the 'Toss-Up' column
Arizona -
Has gone GOP 4X - Gore came within 6% but Kerry and Obama have lost by 9% to 10%.
Governor, both senators, and the state legislature are GOP.
Georgia -
Has gone GOP 4X - Obama got double-digit loss down to single digits with high AA turnout.
Governor, both senators, most of the House delegations, and nearly all the legislature are GOP.
Missouri -
Has gone GOP 4X - Clinton carried MO 2X, Obama almost in 2008, but lost by 10% in 2012.
Most of House delegation and nearly all the legislature are GOP. Serious race issues.
West Virginia -
Has gone GOP 4X - Used to be reliable Dem state, Obama lost by 27% in 2012.
Governor, House delegation, and legislature are GOP. Capito won every county in 2014.
2) Only a Glimmer - States that went for Obama in 2008 but for Romney in 2012
Indiana -
Has gone GOP 3X - Obama barely carried in 2008, lost by 10% in 2012
Governor, most of House delegation, and nearly all the legislature are GOP.
North Carolina -
Has gone GOP 3X - Obama barely carried in 2008, lost by only 2% in 2012
Governor, most of House delegation, and nearly all the legislature are GOP.
Despite massive protests against GOP and a near-perfect campaign, Hagan lost.
3) Tough - The four critical states, true swing states
Florida -
Con - GOP governor, House delegation, and state legislature.
Pro - Growing Latino vote and strong African American GOTV.
Iowa -
Con - GOP governor, 2 GOP senators, terrible 2014 results.
Pro - Still closely divided, excellent GOTV.
Nevada -
Con - GOP governor, GOP takeover of legislature, GOP House delegation.
Pro - Growing Latino vote and dominance of Clark County.
Ohio -
Con - GOP governor, House delegation, and legislature, terrible 2014.
Pro - Not a whole heck of a lot.
4) Possible Risks - States that should be in the Dem column, but vulnerable
Colorado and Virginia -
2014 results showed these states are still quite purple, not blue.
Strong leadership from Dems governors and senators.
Michigan and Wisconsin -
Republican dominance at the state level constitutes risk in presidential year.
Peters and Baldwin victories show results of effective campaign organizing.
Maine -
GOP may make trouble given LePage's and Poliquin's victories.
New Mexico -
Dangerous potential GOP Veep nominee in Susana Martinez.
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If the political winds are blowing against the Democrats in 2016 - and given the history of parties alternating in the White House every 8 years this is quite likely - then the four swing states may be tough to carry. If that were the case, the Democratic nominee would still have 273 electoral votes, but could not afford to lose any other state on the risk list.
The conclusion is certainly not that the Democrats are in trouble in 2016. All in all, the Democrats do have an advantage. But to say that the Republican doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell is absurd - - - and dangerous.