See ACASignups.net for details on all of the below.
I feel a bit stupid posting about ACA enrollments the morning after the Ferguson decision was announced, but...I haven't really posted here at dKos since the #DentalGate fuss last week, and this is my thing, so...
My original projection was that we'd hit around 7 million by December 15th, around 8 million by January 15th and around 12 million by February 15th. So far, in spite of the 393K dental plans being double-counted by HHS/CMS, I see no reason to reduce my projection.
The short version is that I've confirmed around 54,000 qualified health plan enrollments for 2015 so far, and have estimated around 10x that many nationally as of yesterday.
In terms of individual states, I have state-wide data from 12 of them and individual insurance company data from 3 more...but even the state-wide data is only partial, since some only include renewals, others only include new enrollees, and may only include the first week or less.
Every state is doing far better than the first week last year, of course, averaging 2-3x the enrollment rate from the 2014 period.
However, as I've been expecting for months now, the real eye-opener is Massachusetts, which is currently enrolling people in private policies at 11x the rate from last year.
Yes, you read that correctly: Eleven times the rate...and that even takes the December & March surges into account.
By April, MA had only enrolled around 32,000 people in private plans; that's 160/day over 200 days.
This time around, they've already broken 14,100 enrollments in just 8 days. That's 1,762 per day so far.
Amazing what a difference a working website can make, isn't it?
I'm actually projecting MA to hit as high as 300K by the end, or over 9x as many people.
Anyway, there've been a bunch of other developments along the way.
As for the dental plan mess, you'll be thrilled to know that Darrell Issa, having had his favorite #Benghazi!!!! toy taken away, has now set his sights on #GruberGate & #DentalGate. Hearings will take place on December 9th. Bring popcorn.