Hoo boy did we Democrats lose in 2014. Even pessimists were taken by surprise by how HARD the Democrats were slammed! Not only were all close races taken decisively by the GOP but even safely blue states turned red through gubernatorial upsets. Republicans won Massachusetts, Maryland, and turned indigo Vermont into a virtual toss-up.
After a disastrous government shutdown where the GOP deservedly took all the blame and lost an easily-winnable governor's election in Virginia. Democratic retention of the Senate seemed all but assured.
But the voters turned out to have distressingly short memories. Or perhaps Democrats simply despaired of doing anything constructive with their votes. Despite massive turnout in 2012 Democrats could not take the House due to excessive (and illegal) gerrymandering (despite the fact that Democratic House candidates received 1.4 million more votes than GOP House candidates.) If even winning by a margin of 1.4 million is still not enough, what is the point? Democrats turned out in mass and Republicans still took the House, blocked all construction legislation, shut down the government, and did all that the voters had voted against in 2012.
Nothing would change. No matter how many Democrats voted nothing would change. Democrats could vote again and again against government shutdowns and governance through crisis (1.4 million votes!) and it wouldn't count. The GOP succeeded brilliantly in fostering voter cynicism in Democrats.
And it didn't help that 2014 Democratic Congressional candidates were acting more like Republicans than Democrats and unwisely distancing themselves from the President despite the fact that the President had been the key to Democratic victories in 2008 and 2012. Even in 2006 Senator Obama had been a widely-visible fresh face that was the symbol of the alternative to the Bush/Cheney America.... a not-small factor in the Democratic midterm victories that year. The white Democratic establishment doesn't realize that despite a chilly 43% approval rating, the President is still well-liked among African-Americans and Latinos. When black Democratic voters switched on their TVs and saw white candidates denying the President and shooting guns while purposely avoiding controversial topics like the Ferguson shooting ..... Democratic voters felt abandoned. This was ignored by the Democratic establishment, especially with sites like Dailykos publishing soothing stories about how the Democrats were going to pull it out in the end in 2014.
But the Democrats have not learned despite a blistering 2014 loss. If observing Hillary Clinton is any guess, she is following the same disastrous playbook that the Democrats used in 2014. She is distancing herself from the President, playing up her "moderate" credentials, and carefully- too carefully- remaining neutral to the point of being "GOP-lite" while not distinguishing herself in any way in this early election season. This is not going to fare well against colorful, forceful, popular candidates like Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, or Jeb Bush.
When the GOP lost in 2012, they took their punishment and issued a "post mortem" report. Mitch McConnell snapped to attention, vowing to block all Tea Party candidates from reaching the general elections and blowing otherwise easy GOP wins. Despite a few surprising retaliatory actions, such as Evil Ken Doll Eric Cantor's defeat in the primary by Tea Partier David Brat (who went on to win the election), McConnell's strategy was a success.
The Democrats failed to adopt any over-reaching strategy themselves. Democratic congressional candidates became a weak collection of GOP-wannabees who rejected the President but were somehow still better than the GOP. Forced to pick between GOP and GOP-lite, Democrats stayed home and the GOP voters chose the future.
Hillary Clinton is going the same route. Between writing boring books and ignoring the greatest asset the Democrats have had since Bill Clinton Clinton is crafting a perfect defeat in 2016. So far Clinton has managed to alienate vital Democratic voting blocks.
1) 56% of African Americans said they would not vote for Hillary Clinton
2) Latino voters' support for Hillary Clinton is tentative at best, with only 37% of Latino voters supporting Clinton unequivocally.
3) White voters' support for Hillary Clinton is not good to say the least.
Clinton seems to be following the same path trajectory as Mary Landrieu, trying the "conservative Democrat" route in order to cross voter lines and end up instead alienating both GOP and Democrats.
What Democrats need is a better candidate, and unlike the GOP Democrats have no one besides Hillary Clinton. Unless we can find a better, more dynamic, more charismatic alternative to Clinton we will lose.... and we will lose hard. Again.