Another frazzling day, with data dumps from no fewer than 9 states, including the big guy, California. In addition, the autorenewal data is starting to show up, and some extremely depressing news out of Vermont:
—Idaho manages to enroll 98% of 2014 QHP total in first month!!
—Kentucky: 85K QHPs (includes autorenewals!), 16K Medicaid thru 12/15
—California: 144K new QHP enrollments thru 12/15, 216K added to Medicaid
—Connecticut: 66K Renewals/Autorenewals, 86K QHPs total for 2015 (UPDATED)
—New York: 126.6K Medicaid, 68.4K new QHPs (UPDATED)
—Minnesota: 23.8K QHPs, 25.5K Medicaid/MNCare
—Vermont: Ouch. It looks like Single Payer is off the table for now after all
—Massachusetts: 59K QHPs estimated, 94K Medicaid confirmed
—Rhode Island: 9,825 QHP renewals, 2,522 new enrollees thru 12/13
—Colorado: 108K QHPs (autorenewals included?), 28K Medicaid thru 12/15
—BONUS GRAPH: Overlaying 2014 on top of 2015 (note: I've modified this a bit to provide better clarity)
In addition, if you check out the Medicaid Graph, you'll note that as best as I can figure, ACA-enabled Medicaid enrollments have broken through the 12 Million mark!
Meanwhile, the Big Autorenewal Spike on the QHP Graph has finally kicked in. Note that I have no idea whether HHS plans on including the HC.gov autorenewals on next week's "snapshot" report or even on their full monthly report (also expected sometime next week). They may list them separately, or they may not list them until January, or they might include some of them but not all (ie, perhaps some insurance companies are set to process autorenewals faster than others, etc).
That's a big part of why, while I've bumped up my estimates for 12/15 (from 4.5M to 4.7M), and 12/23 (from 7.7M to 7.9M), I'm not touching anything after that for the moment; between the autorenewals, the states with later deadlines (ID, MD, MA, MN, NY, RI, VT & WA) and the states with "grace periods" or "callback queues" (pretty much everyone else), the next week is gonna be awfully messy on the recording/reporting side.
For instance, as you can see above, Kentucky & Connecticut have already reported their autorenewals, while California & New York refuse to even say how many manual renewals they've had. Colorado has probably included autorenewals in today's numbers, but I can't be certain (though if they didn't, they had an extremely impressive number of pro-active enrollees).
Anyway, here's what it looks like tonight: